The Australian has published what can doubtless be regarded as the most reliable – or at any rate, least unreliable – seat polls to emerge from the campaign so far, from four well-chosen electorates. These are automated phone polls conducted on Saturday and have modest samples, from 509 to 618, although they seem to fit very well with where the major parties believe things to stand. Among other things, this means each looks to be going down to the wire. Perhaps a little more surprisingly, they find Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party doing at least as well as the Palmer United Party did in 2013.
Deakin (Victoria, Liberal 6.4%): The Liberals are credited with a two-party lead of 51-49 in this eastern Melbourne seat, consistent with the general impression of a big swing to Labor in Victoria – though perhaps not quite enough to take out this particular seat, which is held by arch-conservative Michael Sukkar. The primary votes are Liberal 46%, compared with 50.3% in 2016; Labor 39%, compared with 30.1%; Greens 8%, compared with 11.3%; and 5% for the United Australia Party. The numbers for comparison here are as adjusted for the redistribution, which boosted the Liberal margin from 5.7% to 6.4%. The sample here was 535.
Pearce (WA, Liberal 3.6%): A dead heat on two-party preferred in Christian Porter’s seat on Perth’s northern fringes, from primary votes of Liberal 40% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 8% (11%), United Australia Party 8% and One Nation 6%. Sample: 509.
Herbert (Queensland, Labor 0.0%): The Coalition has high hopes invested in recovering this Townsville-based seat from Labor’s Cathy O’Toole due to the Adani controversy, but the poll’s two party preferred reading finds nothing to separate the two parties on the primary vote, in a seat Labor won by 37 votes in 2016. Presumably these polls use respondent-allocated preferences, as 2016 preference flows suggest this is more like 51-49 to Labor: their primary vote is only down from 30.5% to 29%, while the Liberal National Party is down from 35.5% to 31.1%. The United Australia Party does particularly well here, despite Palmer himself having baulked at his earlier plan to contest the seat. It records 14% of the vote, resulting in One Nation fading from 13.5% to 9%, although Katter’s Australian Party are up from 6.9% to 10%. The Greens are at 5%, down from 6.3%. Sample: 529.
Lindsay (NSW, Labor 1.1%): Another status quo result in a seat the Liberals are talking up as a gain from Labor, who are credited with a 51-49 lead. In this case, previous election preferences would probably have produced a stronger result for the Liberals, who are up from 39.3% to 41% on the primary vote with Labor down from 41.1% to 40%. The Greens are little changed on 4%, compared with 3.6% last time, and the United Australia Party are on 7%. Sample: 618.
It has been said around the place that Essential Research was not letting Easter deter it from following its fortnightly polling schedule over the weekend, but it may be causing them to delay its release by a day, because there’s nothing about it on The Guardian’s site.
“Anthony Albanese is liked by the News Corporation Media, which is something.”
He’s liked precisely because he’s not the leader, and if they promote anyone other than the leader it gives the appearance of destabilisation. I would be willing to bet good money that if Albo were leader, he would be being savaged by News Corp and their columnists would be sorrowfully intoning about how the caucus should have gone with Shorten, the moderate and cautious alternative.
News Corp is not a neutral player here.
Old Rupe just didn’t like it when Bill virtually told him to go and get stuffed.
It is a plain as the nose on your face.
Tristo & 4.41
An understandable error. The West Australian looks, feels and acts like a News Corpse rag – indistinguishable for all practical purposes.
How on earth did the LNP see its way clear to preselecting this peanut for any position on the Senate ballot, let alone a winnable spot?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-23/lnp-senate-candidate-gerard-rennick-bom-climate-conspiracy/11036404?section=politics
This seems like a candidate vetting fail of a magnitude not ordinarily seen in a major party. Do they seriously expect this guy to stick out the 6 years without quitting the party?
So, what right does the Coalition have to “ask” the AG to do a review, during the caretaker period??
Even if they make it an “election promise” they cant use it as an excuse to not release the documents asked for.
I dont think it would be proper for the AG to claim those docs cant be released because of a pending inquiry. That would be a blatantly political stance to assist the Coalition in burying the issue during the campaign.
Jacinda Ardern
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/a-beacon-of-tolerance-love-and-peace-jacinda-ardern-mural-to-be-painted-on-brunswick-silos-20190422-p51g7t.html
“How on earth did the LNP see its way clear to preselecting this peanut for any position on the Senate ballot, let alone a winnable spot?”
Fwark up and Lies seem to be the superpower they are deploying this election.
You guys on this Blog are no fun
Do not take things so seriously it is just Government
Here in South Australia we went from Labor to Liberal and the same Shit still happens
The boring 1 minute grabs you get on TV about about who better at what
You spend $500 Million so we will Spend $600 Million
You give $100 Tax Cut we will give you a $200 Tax Cut
There is Policies which do not cost any Money that should be implemented
For one thing get that Bureaucratic Centelink to Work Properly both with NDIS and other things
The F***in paper trail they need is utter Bullshit and they have huge buildings with 2 people behind the desk with 10 other tables free
Sorry for changing the Subject but we need Policies that are Good for the Whole not the Few
NewsCorpse “like” Albo as a ready made focus for their next round of #Leadershit.
Some politic tragics might revel in the minutiae of #Watergate but I would bet the reaction of many ordinary people who might actually pay attention to 30 second soundbites would be meh what’s new, they’re all corrupt.
LR
52/48
a) It would be political suicide to install an estate tax without taking it to an election first.
b) The US have a 40% estate tax. Last I looked they were the most powerful and wealthy country on the planet.
“Sorry for changing the Subject but we need Policies that are Good for the Whole not the Few”
You will get few arguments here against getting Centerlink and the NDIS to work better.
Argument is over which of ALP or Coalition is more likely to do that. That’s why we are having an election. 🙂
Coalition have demonstrated they cant, and really, don’t want too.
They prefer Policies that are Good for the Few not the Whole.
Pegasus
Damo (above) is confirming your opinion.
jeffemu says:
Yes, it may have been coincidence but I did notice a recent up tick in the Hysteriometer’s OTT score for The Australian’s BOO LABOR online headlines.
LR
51/49
Murdoch is in play.
Suggestion for a r if you’re about. 😉
Polls: me 53/47 for newspoll and essential.
Hello from a very infrequent poster
Apropos of nothing, I live in Cooper (formerly Batman) south of Miller Street north of Normanby Ave, east of Merri Creek and west of St Georges Rd.
When we had the David Feeney S44 by election I commented that the Greens were visible in corflutes in a bunch of front yards in my street. I don’t know if a by election increases the number of corflutes on fences but so far I count 18 out of 21 previous Greens corflute exhibitors who aren’t (so far) exhibiting for David Risstrom. (as they were for Alex Bhatal)
Don’t know if my observation will translate to anything at all, but it’s definitely noticeable the reduction in those exhibiting support for the Greens.
(TBF I haven’t seen much Ged Kearney support either so it may be a General election thing as opposed to a by election thing; although we had barely any Ged Kearney corflutes in the by election in our area last year. And also, checking out Anthony Green’s seat analysis, my preferred voting place of Croxton school, slightly south of me, seems to run 64% TPP Green)
Cheers
I have unscrambled Policies for the benefit of the unenlightened among us —-
Ta Da ❗
I now rest my case and throw myself on the mercy of the court.
C@t, seems Kayjay has you covered but the hosting service I liked to was https://imgbb.com They all work in pretty much the same way as Kayjay has described.
Lr 53/47
In the evening – after the music comes on, the lights are dimmed, the drinking games start and we all get our kit off – the extent of the frivolity on PB is hard to express with mere words.
1892CFC
Appreciate the observations
BK. How is the seeding machine going?
A chap was explaining to me that when the first white fellas came to Mount Barker Springs their diary noted their horses could barely push through the thick native grasses…. and that was in February! I am guessing kangaroo grass.
It is, of course, a wasteland atm.
Late Riser
52/48 for Newspoll and Essential
The Tory media loved Gillard until she took over the PMship too. Never believe them. Deny them access and relevance.
LR
If there’s a Newspoll I’ll go 53:47 to Labor.
Please and thank you.
LR, I was surrounded by Hilux Utes this weekend.
51-49.
Paul Karp
@Paul_Karp
Labor’s Tony Burke now calling for an “independent inquiry into the Eastern Australia Agriculture scandal, with coercive powers” #auspol #watergate
“Don’t know if my observation will translate to anything at all, but it’s definitely noticeable the reduction in those exhibiting support for the Greens.”
This is unsurprising. Cooper is not on the Greens’ priority list this time due to the issues the Derebin branch had. It will be a Greens seat in the future but probably not this time. The Derebin branch really screwed up that by-election.
That isn’t to say Ged is safe at all, especially considering she sold out asylum seekers almost as soon as she was elected. It’s still an extremely marginal seat and could very well turn Green this time but if I’m honest I do not expect it to. The Greens have wisely diverted campaign resources away from it for the time being to the other seats nearby, such as Higgins, Kooyong, Wills, MacNamara, etc…
Simon² Katich® @ #574 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 5:31 pm
Ah ❗ – and by the light of a silvery full moon –
Simon² Katich® @ #580 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 5:37 pm
Mortal again?
Simon Katich
BK. How is the seeding machine going?
___
Funny enough I caught up with the people carrying on our project just this morning.
The machine has been improved upon and is performing well.
Some of the plots we planted are doing well with green underneath as opposed to the dusty paddocks at the moment.
The Redleg Grass seed production area at our place is now exclusively that variety and is looking very healthy.
Let me have a go at this image posting thingy.
KayJay
Your tutorial was spot on. 🙂
“lol Last fed election the Daily Telegraph ran a ‘Save Our Albo’ campaign because the Greens candidate he was running against, Jim Casey, was a dastardly socialist and if he was elected it would be the end of the world as we know it.
Jim Casey is contesting Grayndler again so expect Albanese to come out with the anti-Socialist scare campaign again.”
For GoT fans
https://10daily.com.au/views/a190422rfv/christopher-pyne-when-labor-loses-the-election-get-ready-for-their-very-own-red-wedding-20190423
Written by a “committed Liberal, I’m predicting a Liberal and National Government will win. So what happens to Labor if, as I hope, they lose?”
LR – I will be sure to return to my eternal 56-44.
BK. Did you do any prep? Skim off the topsoil? Or is that IP?
Centrelink or NDIS or other Government Departments have been shit under Both Sides of Government
We need a fresh approach on how Money is Spent and Delivered to the people in the way of Services
My Fathers Aged Care System is an excellent example of something working ok Government Funded but Private Serviced
Have had no problems for over 4 years as the Government is not the one giving the Service
If this was not in place he would of rotten to Death in a Nursing Home
mikehilliard: I think you did it wrong, whatever you posted just cracked my screen 🙁
@1892CFC
Thanks for the anecdote.
It also appears both Albanese and Tanya are helping other candidates. I remember in 2016 they were focussing more on their own seats due to an expected strong challenge by Greens. They may be concentrating more on senate seats rather than fighting for lower house seats. Either way, there seems to be a bit of a lack of energy in Greens.
lr
52:48LNP
All polls
Newspoll 53/47 to labor
Essential 53/47 to labor
LR
It pains me but put me down for 51/49
Just released today:
52.8:47.2 to Labor, from Voter Choice Project.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/labor-leading-coalition-research-shows
or
https://www.voterchoice.com.au/results-of-wave-11-election-weekly-survey-1/
LR, my Newspoll is 55/45 to the good guys.
Ta muchly.
Late Riser
53:47 to Labor both polls, please
FWIW, I am recording poll guesses based on a controversial guess (made earlier today) that there might be a Newspoll tonight. I’m also recording Essential guesses, because why not, but I have no idea when either might drop.