The Australian has published what can doubtless be regarded as the most reliable – or at any rate, least unreliable – seat polls to emerge from the campaign so far, from four well-chosen electorates. These are automated phone polls conducted on Saturday and have modest samples, from 509 to 618, although they seem to fit very well with where the major parties believe things to stand. Among other things, this means each looks to be going down to the wire. Perhaps a little more surprisingly, they find Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party doing at least as well as the Palmer United Party did in 2013.
Deakin (Victoria, Liberal 6.4%): The Liberals are credited with a two-party lead of 51-49 in this eastern Melbourne seat, consistent with the general impression of a big swing to Labor in Victoria – though perhaps not quite enough to take out this particular seat, which is held by arch-conservative Michael Sukkar. The primary votes are Liberal 46%, compared with 50.3% in 2016; Labor 39%, compared with 30.1%; Greens 8%, compared with 11.3%; and 5% for the United Australia Party. The numbers for comparison here are as adjusted for the redistribution, which boosted the Liberal margin from 5.7% to 6.4%. The sample here was 535.
Pearce (WA, Liberal 3.6%): A dead heat on two-party preferred in Christian Porter’s seat on Perth’s northern fringes, from primary votes of Liberal 40% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 8% (11%), United Australia Party 8% and One Nation 6%. Sample: 509.
Herbert (Queensland, Labor 0.0%): The Coalition has high hopes invested in recovering this Townsville-based seat from Labor’s Cathy O’Toole due to the Adani controversy, but the poll’s two party preferred reading finds nothing to separate the two parties on the primary vote, in a seat Labor won by 37 votes in 2016. Presumably these polls use respondent-allocated preferences, as 2016 preference flows suggest this is more like 51-49 to Labor: their primary vote is only down from 30.5% to 29%, while the Liberal National Party is down from 35.5% to 31.1%. The United Australia Party does particularly well here, despite Palmer himself having baulked at his earlier plan to contest the seat. It records 14% of the vote, resulting in One Nation fading from 13.5% to 9%, although Katter’s Australian Party are up from 6.9% to 10%. The Greens are at 5%, down from 6.3%. Sample: 529.
Lindsay (NSW, Labor 1.1%): Another status quo result in a seat the Liberals are talking up as a gain from Labor, who are credited with a 51-49 lead. In this case, previous election preferences would probably have produced a stronger result for the Liberals, who are up from 39.3% to 41% on the primary vote with Labor down from 41.1% to 40%. The Greens are little changed on 4%, compared with 3.6% last time, and the United Australia Party are on 7%. Sample: 618.
It has been said around the place that Essential Research was not letting Easter deter it from following its fortnightly polling schedule over the weekend, but it may be causing them to delay its release by a day, because there’s nothing about it on The Guardian’s site.
mikehilliard @ #587 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 5:42 pm
I’m pleased to hear it. It’s a little schizophrenic swapping between the sites. 😎
Game On: Easter Roy Morgan Poll shows election race tightening: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% on a two-party preferred basis
The ALP 51% leads the L-NP 49% on a two party preferred basis according to a face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll conducted on the Easter weekend of April 20/21, 2019 with a cross-section of 707 electors.
The tight result at Easter means the Roy Morgan Poll has swung by 1.5% to the L-NP since the prior surveying period of April 6/7 & 13/14, 2019.
Primary Voting Intention
The L-NP now has a primary vote of 39% (up 1.5%) and clearly ahead of the ALP on 35.5% (down 1%) while Greens support is down 1.5% to 9.5%.
Support for One Nation is up 1% to 4.5% while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is up 0.5% to 2%. Support for Independents/Others is now 9.5% (down 0.5%).
Roy Morgan Government Confidence
Roy Morgan Government Confidence has improved this week with 40% of electors saying Australia is now heading in the right direction, up 1% from a week earlier while 41% (down 1.5%) say Australia is heading in the wrong direction.
These results leave Government Confidence below the neutral level of 100 and indicate the ALP is still the favourite to win with early voting opening next week although the L-NP has closed the gap significantly during the last week.
I will be interested to see what happens to One Nation’s primary vote in the polls. Here’s hoping they continue to nosedive. It would be wonderful if Hanson was left all on her own after the election. The field of right wing minor parties is getting very crowded and they may well end up cannibalising one another.
All the guesses so far…
—————————
PB-Guess:Newspoll 2019-04-23
PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
PB mode: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
PB mean: ALP 53.2 to 46.8 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 24
ALP / LNP
53 / 47 a r *until the election
52 / 48 Al Pal
51 / 49 BK
53 / 47 Burgey
54.7239618 / 45.2760382 Dan Gulberry *permanent
54 / 46 EB *permanent
54 / 46 Fozzie Logic *permanent
53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
53 / 47 imacca
57 / 43 KayJay *all next polls
52 / 48 Marcos De Feilittt
51 / 49 Mundo
53 / 47 pica
53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
55 / 45 Question *until the election
52 / 48 Red13
53 / 47 Scott
51 / 49 Simon² Katich®
53 / 47 sonar *permanent
55 / 45 Tom
53 / 47 Tricot *any polls
52 / 48 Whisper
—————————
PB-Guess:Essential 2019-04-23
PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
PB mode: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
PB mean: ALP 53.8 to 46.2 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 15
ALP / LNP
53 / 47 a r *until the election
54.7239618 / 45.2760382 Dan Gulberry *permanent
54 / 46 EB *permanent
54 / 46 Fozzie Logic *permanent
53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
53 / 47 imacca
57 / 43 KayJay *all next polls
52 / 48 Marcos De Feilittt
53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
55 / 45 Question *until the election
53 / 47 Scott
53 / 47 sonar *permanent
53 / 47 Tricot *any polls
On the subject of Canada and Trudeau – does anyone here have any insight into why Trudeau dropped meaningful electoral reform? As I understand it from wikipedia, Trudeau took reform to the 2015 election, went through the motions (and making the statements) one would if one were serious about pursuing reform, but then just dropped it all like a hot potato.
Was it really the case that the Canadian public was antagonistic to any move away from FPTP? A terrible missed opportunity it seems to me, and a perplexing about-face by Trudeau – going from actively advocating for reform to, it seems, deriding it.
Canada, of course, with 2 largish leftish/centrish parties has a terrible problem with FPTP and vote splitting against the conservatives (well, most of the time – the conservatives in Alberta had the opposite problem at the previous provincial elections until they sorted themselves out and united again), so it definitely seems like the Canadian Libs and NDP need to get their act together and consign FPTP to history. Noting that British Colombia just had a referendum go down with 61% of votes for keeping FPTP for provincial elections.
Enrollment rates per division have been released, with 2016 results also downloadable on that page;
https://aec.gov.au/Enrolling_to_vote/Enrolment_stats/rate-div/index.htm
I did some comparison, thinking perhaps higher enrollment might reflect a greater desire for change;
The electorates are in brackets 90-95%, 95-98%, 98% and over, so unless an electorate skips an entire bracket its hard to draw any conclusions from it, as it might be only very slight change.
Enrollment increased from 90-95% bracket to 98% or over (minimum 3% increase in enrollment)
Sturt (SA), LNP 5.4%
Stirling (WA), LNP 6.1%
Tangney (WA), LNP 11.1%
Increased from 85-90% bracket to 95-98% (minimum 5% increase in enrollment)
Burt (WA), ALP 7.1%
Swan (WA), LNP 3.0%
Dark horse is Tangney, where Labor is paying $13, with a LNP MP i had never heard of, Ben Morton, anyone from WA have any insights into that electorate, why the big increase, is there a mood for change ?
Hey Firefox,
I tried to work out how to reply to your post and include your post – ( as I have seen so often here) – but I am not succeeding. So I have copy and pasted below:
Firefox says:
Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 5:38 pm
“Don’t know if my observation will translate to anything at all, but it’s definitely noticeable the
reduction in those exhibiting support for the Greens.”
This is unsurprising. Cooper is not on the Greens’ priority list this time due to the issues the Derebin
branch had. It will be a Greens seat in the future but probably not this time. The Derebin branch really
screwed up that by-election.
That isn’t to say Ged is safe at all, especially considering she sold out asylum seekers almost as soon
as she was elected. It’s still an extremely marginal seat and could very well turn Green this time but if
I’m honest I do not expect it to. The Greens have wisely diverted campaign resources away from it for
the time being to the other seats nearby, such as Higgins, Kooyong, Wills, MacNamara, etc…
Me – you’re right Firefox. When i moved here 23 years ago this was definitely a working class suburb. As the prices for houses have risen exponentially out of reach for working class people (lucky I got in when I did) we are getting a much greater percentage of affluent people compared to working class people. With affluence comes change to a suburb – maybe good, maybe bad.
Again, (off piste), William Cooper, who my electorate is now named after, gets a mention in this song, (which I love)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-wMbFntrTo
Cheers
LR,
53-47 for Newspoll and Essential.
1892CFC, the simplest is to put <blockquote> at the start of the quote and then </blockquote> at the end. There are “browser extensions/add ins” that translate different keystrokes into <blockquote> and </blockquote>, but that’s the gist of it. Hope this helps. 🙂
EDIT: fixed the >
Are polls coming out tonight??
Late Riser says:
Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 6:14 pm
1892CFC, the simplest is to put
at the end. There are “browser extensions/add ins” that translate different keystrokes into
Jordan @ #610 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 6:17 pm
Nobody knows. People are bored, methinks. 🙂
Try again
Morgan shows things are tightening. All the right of centre parties are up while the Greens and Labor are tanking. Bill better stop spending all his time sizing up the curtains. Parties can win from 49-51 with less than 4 weeks to go.
Honestly- I’m not taking ANY polls taken this weekend seriously. No matter what they say.
EDIT: fixed the >
I miss Don where has he gone?
Please read the Coalition of Corruption. BW listed quite a few in one post. He might have one of them. ‘Trail commissions to mortgage brokers”
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/04/coalition-corruption-sinks-filth/
The Drum doing a good job on #watergate at the moment I think.
Doesnt look like Tangney is even on the radar for Labor, will still be interesting to see how it goes election night with higher enrollment.
Jackol says:
Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 6:03 pm
On the subject of Canada and Trudeau – does anyone here have any insight into why Trudeau dropped meaningful electoral reform? As I understand it from wikipedia, Trudeau took reform to the 2015 election, went through the motions (and making the statements) one would if one were serious about pursuing reform, but then just dropped it all like a hot potato.
—————————————–
It was really strange. Because with at least preferential voting, the two left of center parties, Liberal and NDP would consistently keep the Conservatives out. It’s difficult to believe that Trudeau would be afraid of the NDP winning with Tory preferences. I seem to remember there was quite an argument in favor of proportional representation. But once again it would provide a path for the Conservatives to win against the combined vote of the Liberals and the NDP.
I’ll have to ask my academic psephologist son (Ph.d from University of Michigan’s formidable Political Science school.) He hasn’t had much contact with Trudeau since they were both in a nippers skiing program back in the day.
From that Tony Burke interview, it sounds like both parties are terrified of opening the Pandora’s Box that would be a Royal Commission into a Murray-Darling Basin Plan.
I gather Morgan is the ‘go to’ poll for the dateless and desperate LNP supporters when they want cheering up. I can’t remember the last time Morgan was anywhere closer than 2% to the actual poll outcome. I would suspect the Newspoll in some tight seats which came out today is closer to the mark. Having said this, it would not surprise me if some homeless ON voters have parked with the LNP – but then I would not count this being an on-going thing.
1892CFC, I screwed you up because I had a mistake in my example. I think you got it first time.
The keywords blockquote and /blockquote, when you bracket them with a less than or greater than symbol, trigger a translation when they are posted,. Each blockquote indents what follows. Each /blockquote removes an indent. It’s tricky for me to show you because it gets translated before you see it.
Let me know if this is confusing and I’ll try again. 🙂
Tony Burke sounded really good on RNDrive just then.
He was not provided with any unredacted docs and it sounds like Labor will be calling for a judicial review into Barnaby’s transaction tomorrow.
/blockquote Late Riser says:
Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 6:14 pm
1892CFC, the simplest is to put
at the end. There are “browser extensions/add ins” that translate different keystrokes into
, but that’s the gist of it. Hope this helps.
EDIT: fixed the > /blockquote
Trying?
I’m not doing well at this it seems
michael
My inner pessimist keeps saying hung parliament ….but now I’m thinking that’s a best case scenario ….but only if Labor’s in the drivers seat…unless Labor has something truly spectacular up it’s sleeve in the campaigning department I’m leaning towards a total clusterfck Morriscum return…..
Why not – 53/47 to ALP on Newspoll and 54/46 to ALP on Essential.
Late Riser: 52/48 to the ALP in both Newspoll and Essential, thanks
michael says:
Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 6:19 pm
Morgan shows things are tightening. All the right of centre parties are up while the Greens and Labor are tanking. Bill better stop spending all his time sizing up the curtains. Parties can win from 49-51 with less than 4 weeks to go..
Anyone who takes a Morgan poll seriously automatically disqualifies themselves from being taken seriously on a pseph site.
I’ll take 52-48 all round: i.e. no change at all from the first week of campaigning
Good lord mundo, you’re tiring, lol…
Cant see any new Morgan Poll results on their website, is that a leaked private poll ?
bug1………….conventional wisdom at the moment is that Labor is in line to pick up 2-3 seats – Hasluck, Swan and Pearce – on today’s Newspoll and earlier ones. Stirling has been bandied about by some local Labor supporters as a possibility but Tangney is a bridge too far. If a swing is on, they WA usually swigs too. The reality is that if Labor can’t pick up 2-3 in Perth then I doubt they are doing any better anywhere else. Election activity is at best muted at the moment, other than the West newspaper which is brazen in its one-sided support of the LNP and the general bagging of Labor.
Christ, not you too bug1!
Any poll which gives hope, I will take at the moment. Hopefully Morgan is close to accurate this time, but further polls will show if there is a definite movement happening.
Re Late Riser @6:03Pm.
My guesses Newspoll & Essential 23/4/2019: 51-49.
1892CFC
Browsers use mark-up codes to format text. The “language” is called Hyper Text Mark-up Language, aka HTML. The codes use a less than and a greater than symbol to separate each code from the rest of the text. For example to make something bold you type a less than, then the letter b, then a greater than. Everything that follows will render as bold. When you’ve reached the end of the text you want as bold you type a less than, then a slash, then a b, then the greater than.
blockquote is another such code. It acts to indent what follows. To turn the blockquote off, just like the bold example, you include the slash symbol with the word blockquote. The browser will interpret this as “turn off” block quote.
Hope that helps a little. Sorry for the length of explanation.
Tricot, yea before i looked at it, i wondered if Tangery was one of those socially progressive financially conservative liberal seats that are in play, but SSM was in line with national average, and the ALP campaign looks like its being run by 2 people, the candidate and the photographer, small FB presence, LNP dude was almost had eligibility issues, but has good fb numbers.
apparently the betting agencies have blow-out the coalition from $3.85 – $4.25
One of the most important rights of course is freedom from arbitrary arrest.
A lot of good work was done in the days of Jeff Shaw QC in NSW, guided by the courts and conscious of Aboriginal deaths in custody, to limit the power of arrest.
A few perhaps undeserving but successful cases of wrongful arrest caused the Police Association to whinge to the NSW government for change so we are closer to where we started.
The High Court now is intervening in a case worth $5000.
http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/other/HCATrans/2019/76.html
We do not learn about These stories about terrorism in Iran by Pakistan terrorists
https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/260606621/families-of-iranian-terror-victims-pen-letter-to-pakistani-pm
I’ll guess 51-49 for the polls
michael says:
Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 6:40 pm
Any poll which gives hope, I will take at the moment. Hopefully Morgan is close to accurate this time, but further polls will show if there is a definite movement happening.
———————
For the election to be close the libs/nats combined primary vote needs to be over 43%
William erratum: “but the poll’s two party preferred reading finds nothing to separate the two parties on the primary vote” – I think you mean TPP as the primary votes are different.
Where does their combined primary vote needing to be over 43% come from?
bug1 @ #633 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 6:37 pm
https://abix.cmail19.com/t/j-l-mllkdlt-fdhjrgdy-h/
Tristo @ #521 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 2:36 pm
Newscorp don’t own The West Australian. What the exact relationship between TWA and Newscorp is is becoming more and more blurry with content sharing across the two outlets, but ownership of TWA is in the hands of Kerry Stokes.
Scott- the LNP can win the election with 25% if the voters support LNP & ALP at 25% each and a whole lot of small parties get 50% and the LNP get 50% or so of preferences. Arbitrary figures need to account for this.