Newspoll: Deakin, Pearce, Herbert and Lindsay

Newspoll seat polls target four seats that are expected to go down to the wire, producing results to match.

The Australian has published what can doubtless be regarded as the most reliable – or at any rate, least unreliable – seat polls to emerge from the campaign so far, from four well-chosen electorates. These are automated phone polls conducted on Saturday and have modest samples, from 509 to 618, although they seem to fit very well with where the major parties believe things to stand. Among other things, this means each looks to be going down to the wire. Perhaps a little more surprisingly, they find Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party doing at least as well as the Palmer United Party did in 2013.

Deakin (Victoria, Liberal 6.4%): The Liberals are credited with a two-party lead of 51-49 in this eastern Melbourne seat, consistent with the general impression of a big swing to Labor in Victoria – though perhaps not quite enough to take out this particular seat, which is held by arch-conservative Michael Sukkar. The primary votes are Liberal 46%, compared with 50.3% in 2016; Labor 39%, compared with 30.1%; Greens 8%, compared with 11.3%; and 5% for the United Australia Party. The numbers for comparison here are as adjusted for the redistribution, which boosted the Liberal margin from 5.7% to 6.4%. The sample here was 535.

Pearce (WA, Liberal 3.6%): A dead heat on two-party preferred in Christian Porter’s seat on Perth’s northern fringes, from primary votes of Liberal 40% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 8% (11%), United Australia Party 8% and One Nation 6%. Sample: 509.

Herbert (Queensland, Labor 0.0%): The Coalition has high hopes invested in recovering this Townsville-based seat from Labor’s Cathy O’Toole due to the Adani controversy, but the poll’s two party preferred reading finds nothing to separate the two parties on the primary vote, in a seat Labor won by 37 votes in 2016. Presumably these polls use respondent-allocated preferences, as 2016 preference flows suggest this is more like 51-49 to Labor: their primary vote is only down from 30.5% to 29%, while the Liberal National Party is down from 35.5% to 31.1%. The United Australia Party does particularly well here, despite Palmer himself having baulked at his earlier plan to contest the seat. It records 14% of the vote, resulting in One Nation fading from 13.5% to 9%, although Katter’s Australian Party are up from 6.9% to 10%. The Greens are at 5%, down from 6.3%. Sample: 529.

Lindsay (NSW, Labor 1.1%): Another status quo result in a seat the Liberals are talking up as a gain from Labor, who are credited with a 51-49 lead. In this case, previous election preferences would probably have produced a stronger result for the Liberals, who are up from 39.3% to 41% on the primary vote with Labor down from 41.1% to 40%. The Greens are little changed on 4%, compared with 3.6% last time, and the United Australia Party are on 7%. Sample: 618.

It has been said around the place that Essential Research was not letting Easter deter it from following its fortnightly polling schedule over the weekend, but it may be causing them to delay its release by a day, because there’s nothing about it on The Guardian’s site.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,037 comments on “Newspoll: Deakin, Pearce, Herbert and Lindsay”

Comments Page 14 of 21
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  1. Media
    Likes
    Tony Burke’s Tweets

    Tony Burke
    @Tony_Burke
    ·
    2m
    The department has refused to provide the documents we sought to try to get to the bottom of #watergate #auspol

  2. LR: 52:48 for both Newspoll & Essential please. The Ruperts are lying desperately, Cliev is still felating the advertising industry (with his worker’s stolen entitlements) and Barnageddon won’t really hit until next week – then it’s goodnight ScuMo (ie 53+ to the ALP) all the way to ~19:30 on May 18.

  3. Do you know that my take is Morrison’s name has been mentioned perhaps 1/2 doz times on the Drum tonight, Shorten would be pushing 30+ times. Good or bad is how it’s framed.

  4. 1892CFC @ #627 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 6:30 pm

    I’m not doing well at this it seems

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    blockquote

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  5. Try once more Late Riser says:
    Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 6:43 pm
    1892CFC

    Browsers use mark-up codes to format text. The “language” is called Hyper Text Mark-up Language, aka HTML. The codes use a less than and a greater than symbol to separate each code from the rest of the text. For example to make something bold you type a less than, then the letter b, then a greater than. Everything that follows will render as bold. When you’ve reached the end of the text you want as bold you type a less than, then a slash, then a b, then the greater than.

    blockquote is another such code. It acts to indent what follows. To turn the blockquote off, just like the bold example, you include the slash symbol with the word blockquote. The browser will interpret this as “turn off” block quote.

    Hope that helps a little. Sorry for the length of explanation.y once more

    Lets see if I’ve got it

  6. bug1………..yes I think you about have it. Not even the most passionate Labor support would look at Tangney as a chance. However, Hasluck is on a tiny margin and has changed hands many times. If Labor can’t get this one it is unlikely to be in line to win the election. Swan has always puzzled me as it ‘should’ be a Labor seat – maybe this time around. Pearce is changing with lots of new developments and it is hard to predict which way it will go. With some kind of swing on, Porter is toast, but if we get to something like 51-49 to Labor on election night, then Pearce could stay with Porter. Right at this moment, I would think he is battling to hold this. Reports from people doing the hard yards on the ground are confident for Labor, but who really knows? For me, 3 seats will suffice – provided of course Victoria and Queensland are there for Labor too. I sense kind of status quo in NSW now while a seat or two one way or the other in SA or Tassie will not be the telling factor.

  8. Why did they refuse?the department issued a press release saying they did nothing wrong on good Fri… seems very partisan

  9. Ltep

    Scott repeatedly made assertions in the NSW election blogs about the thresholds the LNP needed to satisfy to win as part of his/her theory the ALP would win a majority in NSW.

  10. Thanks KayJay

    KayJay says:
    Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 6:54 pm
    1892CFC @ #627 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 6:30 pm

    I’m not doing well at this it seems

    If you are using a desktop computer with Firefox or Chrome or an Android device using Firefox you can install
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    Available at —-
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    Firefox Plugin
    https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/pb-comments-plugin

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    Strikethroug ,

    I think this will work 🙂

  13. I popped in to see what was the response / chatter re Burke’s interview with Karvelas this evening on ABC RN Drive but almost nadda, zip, in stark contrast with yesterday’s of Joyce.

  15. People really think Newspoll will be the same or better for the ALP? I wish I had the same confidence, but how could that be when the media has full on attacked Bill?

  17. DT

    From that Tony Burke interview, it sounds like both parties are terrified of opening the Pandora’s Box that would be a Royal Commission into a Murray-Darling Basin Plan.

    Yep, that’s my take of it too.

    Obfuscation by all and sundry from the two major parties.

  18. We and QED have had bad results for labor in most of the last decade… there is a bonus in terms of seats the closer you get to 50/50 2pp

  26. I will go for 51/49 for both Newspoll and Essential.

    Being in NSW biases my reading of the “Vibe”. Hopefully it is better elsewhere.

  32. labour to call for an Independent Judicial Inquiry tomorrow re Water Allocations.

    PatriciaKarvelas
    ‏
    Verified account

    @PatsKarvelas
    42m42 minutes ago
    More
    And @Tony_Burke tells me the judicial inquiry into #Watergate to be announced tomorrow by Labor will ONLY focus on Barnaby Joyce and these two transactions on 2017 of $80 million #AUSVote19 #auspol

  38. Reuters Top News
    @Reuters
    JUST IN: Sri Lanka minister says initial investigation shows Easter Sunday bombings were in retaliation for New Zealand mosque attack

  39. Burke’s interview: https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/drive/shadow-environment-minister-tony-burke-rules-out-murray-darling/11040172

    Shadow Environment Minister Tony Burke rules out Murray Darling Basin Royal Commission

    The Federal Government has ordered a review of all water purchases since 2008, in a bid to head off a gathering political storm over controversial water buybacks.

    In 2017, Water Minister Barnaby Joyce signed off on the $80 million dollar purchase of two water entitlements from a company co-founded by Energy Minister Angus Taylor that was domiciled in the Cayman Islands.

    Labor had threatened to call for a Royal Commission into the Murray-Darling Basin Plan, instead they’ll focus solely on Barnaby Joyce’s handling of the 2017 water buy backs.

  40. ‘People really think Newspoll will be the same or better for the ALP? I wish I had the same confidence, but how could that be when the media has full on attacked Bill?’

    Weird isn’t it. You get the feeling there’s something you just don’t get?
    Or, everyone is wrong….or…

  41. I’m predicting that the Rt. Rev. ScoMo, Bishop of Engadine Maccas, will this week make a dash to Albury to deliver Sermon on the Murray Mk. II in light of Barnyard’s prizewinning attempt to deliver Farrer to an independent.

  43. Whisper @ #670 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 7:08 pm

    Where has Don gone?

    I miss Don also.
    I think he may have been offended by management and decamped. 😢

    don @ #680 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 7:13 pm

    Whisper @ #617 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 6:20 pm

    I miss Don where has he gone?

    Thank you for your kind words.

    Lurking.

    I am not interested in posting on a site where the moderator treats me with contempt.

    Got it in one, KJ and Tom.

    Got a great song for you.

    ♫Them that don’t ♪love me can make♫ their own ♪arrangements.

    or

    Shortened versions of A.A. Twelve Step Program — Fuckit.

    Naturally not much of that makes sense. 💤💤

  44. It’s different this year. No culture war stuff on Anzac Day. No one being ‘Yasmined’.

    Of course I might have spoke too soon. it’s only the 23rd. Also, I haven’t looked at any Newscrap media outlet in days.

  46. Steve777 @ #691 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 7:38 pm

    It’s different this year. No culture war stuff on Anzac Day.

    Huh? You must have missed it; the RWNJ’s have been doing all they can to start one over that rugby jerkass who thinks having a religion means you can publicly disparage gay people and not lose your job over it if/when your employer isn’t also a jerkass.

  47. Actually, not a bad idea holding an RC into #Barnarbygate.

    Give the punters used to Reality TV a stinger to look forward to.

    You’ll only get it, though, if you vote Labor.

    As I put it yesterday Joyce is everyone’s favourite political piñata .

  48. “It’s different this year. No culture war stuff on Anzac Day. No one being ‘Yasmined’.”

    Sights have been set on the purity of the biscuit recipe.

  49. I’m making only the one speculation. The Shorten Labor will get a 4% swing from the last election compared to the May 18th election. The result will give Labor in excess of 90 seats in the HoRs. Tbe Senate will be a dog’s breakfast.
    My predicted resut for all polls will be 53-47 to Labor and will remain until the election.

  50. The ABC doing yet ANOTHER vox pop that finds every voter is undecided.

    Amazing sampling.

    Bill is undecided and shifty, while Scott is determined and straightforward. Sample size for that opinion = 1

    FFS.

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