Newspoll: Deakin, Pearce, Herbert and Lindsay

Newspoll seat polls target four seats that are expected to go down to the wire, producing results to match.

The Australian has published what can doubtless be regarded as the most reliable – or at any rate, least unreliable – seat polls to emerge from the campaign so far, from four well-chosen electorates. These are automated phone polls conducted on Saturday and have modest samples, from 509 to 618, although they seem to fit very well with where the major parties believe things to stand. Among other things, this means each looks to be going down to the wire. Perhaps a little more surprisingly, they find Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party doing at least as well as the Palmer United Party did in 2013.

Deakin (Victoria, Liberal 6.4%): The Liberals are credited with a two-party lead of 51-49 in this eastern Melbourne seat, consistent with the general impression of a big swing to Labor in Victoria – though perhaps not quite enough to take out this particular seat, which is held by arch-conservative Michael Sukkar. The primary votes are Liberal 46%, compared with 50.3% in 2016; Labor 39%, compared with 30.1%; Greens 8%, compared with 11.3%; and 5% for the United Australia Party. The numbers for comparison here are as adjusted for the redistribution, which boosted the Liberal margin from 5.7% to 6.4%. The sample here was 535.

Pearce (WA, Liberal 3.6%): A dead heat on two-party preferred in Christian Porter’s seat on Perth’s northern fringes, from primary votes of Liberal 40% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 8% (11%), United Australia Party 8% and One Nation 6%. Sample: 509.

Herbert (Queensland, Labor 0.0%): The Coalition has high hopes invested in recovering this Townsville-based seat from Labor’s Cathy O’Toole due to the Adani controversy, but the poll’s two party preferred reading finds nothing to separate the two parties on the primary vote, in a seat Labor won by 37 votes in 2016. Presumably these polls use respondent-allocated preferences, as 2016 preference flows suggest this is more like 51-49 to Labor: their primary vote is only down from 30.5% to 29%, while the Liberal National Party is down from 35.5% to 31.1%. The United Australia Party does particularly well here, despite Palmer himself having baulked at his earlier plan to contest the seat. It records 14% of the vote, resulting in One Nation fading from 13.5% to 9%, although Katter’s Australian Party are up from 6.9% to 10%. The Greens are at 5%, down from 6.3%. Sample: 529.

Lindsay (NSW, Labor 1.1%): Another status quo result in a seat the Liberals are talking up as a gain from Labor, who are credited with a 51-49 lead. In this case, previous election preferences would probably have produced a stronger result for the Liberals, who are up from 39.3% to 41% on the primary vote with Labor down from 41.1% to 40%. The Greens are little changed on 4%, compared with 3.6% last time, and the United Australia Party are on 7%. Sample: 618.

It has been said around the place that Essential Research was not letting Easter deter it from following its fortnightly polling schedule over the weekend, but it may be causing them to delay its release by a day, because there’s nothing about it on The Guardian’s site.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,037 comments on “Newspoll: Deakin, Pearce, Herbert and Lindsay”

Comments Page 11 of 21
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  2. SK
    Luv em but will wait for a price drop with tech changes making great in roads or trade in my car as a deposit for such a sleek machine.

  3. This made me laugh

    Media
    Likes
    Michael West’s Tweets

    Michael West
    @MichaelWestBiz
    ·
    15m
    Comrade Kristof Kennyovich has announced official party line of USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Ruperts): Da, is good for taxpayer money to go to unknown people in Cayman Islands. #Watergate is ABC/Labor conspiracy
    Quote Tweet

    Sky News Australia
    @SkyNewsAust
    · 1h
    .@chriskkenny examines the ABC’s ‘true colours’.

    MORE: (link: https://bit.ly/2W08w3N) bit.ly/2W08w3N #kennyreport

  4. Well here’s one challenger in New England.

    Does anyone have details about him?

    Given Barnaby Joyce has been in the news, the independent in New England is getting a bit more airplay. Adam Blakestar would need a swing of 8.5% to win the seat from Joyce.

    The Guardian blog

  5. I like Albo, but he is not as disciplined or as good negotiator a shorten. I think shorten will be a good PM because of the strength of his team and his political nous. Howard rarely won popularity polls and we couldn’t get rid of him.

  6. On penalty rates

    Labor has promised to reverse the cuts that have already been implemented, and to do this in the first hundred days of a Labor government. This will need legislation. On wages more generally, Labor have said they will work with the FWC arguing strongly for increases to the minimum wage.

  7. Damo
    You’re a battler and keep up the good work. Nath invented bullshit and Wayne doesn’t exist. As your mother would have said to you be careful who you mix with

  8. @sustainable future

    Anthony Albanese is liked by the News Corporation Media, which is something. Unless you are someone with an agenda to rally the Millennial’s and Generation Z like Jeremy Corbyn has done in the United Kingdom, it is going to be very difficult (not impossible) for a leader of a political party to win an Federal Election. Because right now I believe a hung parliament might be a possibility.

  10. FWA *Independent* ?

    The Coalition stacked the Fair Work Commission with six new deputy presidents from employer backgrounds, despite advice from tribunal president Iain Ross the commission required only one additional appointment to replace a forthcoming retirement.

    …Jobs and Industrial Relations Minister Kelly O’Dwyer appointed deputies from workplace backgrounds at groups such as the Australian Mines and Metals Association, and the National Electrical and Contractors Association, meaning that the workplace umpire now contains a majority of Coalition-backed employer-linked appointees.

  12. Tristo
    “Anthony Albanese is liked by the News Corporation Media, which is something.”

    Which is something…. what?
    Don’t fall for the crap that emanates from NewsCorpse. It preaches to an ever-dwindling audience of the already converted.

  13. Let’s wait until we have the results?

    And a hung parliament is ALWAYS a possibility, and then, if you need someone to negotiate, I’d honestly pick Shorten over Albo. Elections are weird creatures and can generate bizarre and uneven outcomes. Not that I’m predicting that, I’m still expecting Labor to get around 82-84 seats.

    Albo might be liked by NewsCorp, but they’ll eat him alive once it’s required to meet their overall objective.

  14. Hi KayJay,
    Sorry, I had a phone call.

    Now, it seems like the photos from my phone have downloaded okay to my Pictures file on my computer. However, when I tried to Copy one and Paste it here it didn’t transmute, so to speak. 🙂

  15. “The 2019 election will boast the highest enrolment rate in Australian history (96.8%) and a record enrolment rate for young Australians (88.8%), in figures released on Tuesday.
    …
    Overall, there are 750,000 more people enrolled for this election than for the 2016 election.
    …
    This year’s election will have 1,689,804 young voters enrolled, which is an 88.8% enrolment rate.
    The 2016 federal election had 1,658,085 young voters, which was an 86.7% enrolment rate.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/23/high-number-of-young-voters-create-record-enrolment-rate-of-968-for-election

    So an extra 750,000 voters, but only 32,000 in 18-24 year old group, i guess immigration counts for a part of the increase, wonder where the bulk of those come in ?

    Maybe the young millennial’s shamed some older slackers into finally enrolling ?

  16. “Unless you are something with an agenda to rally the Millennial’s and Generation Z like Jeremy Corbyn has done in the United Kingdom”

    Don’t forget, voting here isn’t optional. They have to vote for someone. There aren’t any signs yet that the younger people aren’t enrolling, so it makes the dynamics here quite different, as does preferential voting.

  17. Tristo says:
    Tuesday, April 23, 2019 at 4:22 pm

    @sustainable future

    Anthony Albanese is liked by the News Corporation Media, which is something. …

    That should raise extreme doubts and questions regarding him as leader immediately.

  18. antonbruckner11 @ #730 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 4:26 pm

    What are the odds in Taylor’s seat?

    Unreachable. He’s just the mascot anyway. The beneficiaries of the Cayman Companies (Southern Highland section) – like the Parrot & Alexander – will return him with an increased majority ’cause he’s such a good chap you know. Besides, he knows who did get the #watergate cash.

  20. “You don’t honestly believe this, do you? I can’t wait for Andrew-Earlwood to give you a history wrt how dirty Albo’s hand are and how many Labor coups he’s been a big part of. ”

    Nah. Sorry C@t, I like Albo. I voted for Albo for leader, I set up the “Centre Unity for Albo” facebook page back in the 2013 and even had my mate Leo McLeay join it, lol.

    That said, I’m convinced that caucus – and not the membership, including me – got it right. I’m not the only one – I’d say Shorten has enjoyed the overwhelming support of the membership since at least 2016.

  21. @Kakuru

    News Coporation still have a considerable audience apart from Sky News. They own The Australian, Daily Telegraph, Herald Sun, Courier Mail, Adelaide Advertiser, Hobart Mercury, The West Australian , Northern Territory News, Tweed Daily News, Coffs Coast Advocate, Geelong Advertiser, Gold Coast Bulletin, Townsville Bulletin and the Cairns Post among other smaller outlets.

  22. “Now, it seems like the photos from my phone have downloaded okay to my Pictures file on my computer. However, when I tried to Copy one and Paste it here it didn’t transmute, so to speak. ”

    After copying the photos to your PC did you upload them to an image hosting service like I suggested?

  23. C@t,

    You need to now load the photos to a host server on the internet, you can’t link here to your computer.

  24. “@chriskkenny examines the ABC’s ‘true colours’.”

    Art lover and dog botherer Chris Kenny has cracked the conspiracy. As previously revealed by Chris, the ABC wants to kill all the conservators. Now we know why – those same conservators were about to reveal the ABC’s “true colours”.

  27. Andrew_Earlwood

    “That said, I’m convinced that caucus – and not the membership, including me – got it right. I’m not the only one – I’d say Shorten has enjoyed the overwhelming support of the membership since at least 2016.”

    Yip, I’ll second that.

  28. rhwombat
    Davidwh crossed over his Rubicon a long time ago and is a fine articulate blogueur.
    Labor are equipped to deal with the many issues awaiting adjudication by Parliament and perhaps the voters now confront their Rubicon.

  31. Do not mention the Secret 40% Death Tax Labor, Greens and the Unions are Installing

    Do not Vote Labor they will Destroy our Country be WARNED

    Facebook is all over it and everything on Facebook is TRUE

  33. Goll

    ‘You’re a battler and keep up the good work. Nath invented bullshit and Wayne doesn’t exist. As your mother would have said to you be careful who you mix with.’

    Couldnt help laughing at your post. A little gem.

  34. “Anthony Albanese is liked by the News Corporation Media, which is something.”

    Yeah something resembling an IQ test. If you imagine the Murdochracy ‘like’ Albo for any reason that would benefit Labor, ordinary people, or the country at large congratulations, you’ve passed the test and confirmed that you’re a fucking moron.

    If Albo was leader News would be full of stories about how Labor needed Shorten’s steady hand and economic sense to save them from that hot headed socialist Albanese.

  39. Jenauthor @ 4:35
    Was it on this blog that Mungo McCallum said that the ALP would win the 2013 Election?
    The point is that desperation on either side can produce odd comments from partisans.
    I’ve advised a troglodyte friend, who lives in Deakin, and thinks Sukkar is a good chap, that if he thinks the Libs will win the election he should go to the Seats betting market, and bet on the Lib in any case where the Alp is at 1.45 to 1.70. in other words, put his money where his mouth is. This is the range where the Libs have to win, and where the return is best
    Those who think Albo would get a better from Rupert run than Bill should remember what happened to Rudd… Rooster one day, feather duster the next. I’ve nothing against Albo, but Rupert would prefer anyone butShorten. I wonder why?

  40. Damo @ #525 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 4:43 pm

    Facebook is all over it and everything on Facebook is TRUE

    I’d like to declare that peak absurdity has been reached with that gem, but fear that the time between now and May 18 could allow an even more laughably ridiculous statement to appear.

    The bar has been set high, however. 🙂

  41. Firefox @ #522 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 4:37 pm

    “Now, it seems like the photos from my phone have downloaded okay to my Pictures file on my computer. However, when I tried to Copy one and Paste it here it didn’t transmute, so to speak. ”

    After copying the photos to your PC did you upload them to an image hosting service like I suggested?

    Barney in Da Lat @ #523 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 4:38 pm

    C@t,

    You need to now load the photos to a host server on the internet, you can’t link here to your computer.

    Heh heh. Oh, that bit. 😆

  42. I mentioned yesterday that Barnyard’s water problems wouldn’t wash well in Farrer.
    Sussan Ley is toast.
    You can bet on it (Albury mayor Kevin Mack @ $1.60, Sportsbet).
    https://www.bordermail.com.au/story/6085159/review-into-watergate-called-after-mack-is-called-a-liar/
    Joyce is going out of his way to ensure that the Libs lose a seat they hold by a 20% margin. Certain to cause a ruckus at the first post-election loss LibNat family shindig.

  44. “Facebook is all over it and everything on Facebook is TRUE”

    Ahhh..Damo definitively outs itself as entirely satirical poster. 🙂

  45. If Albo was leader News would be full of stories about how Labor needed Shorten’s steady hand and economic sense to save them from that hot headed socialist Albanese.

    lol Last fed election the Daily Telegraph ran a ‘Save Our Albo’ campaign because the Greens candidate he was running against, Jim Casey, was a dastardly socialist and if he was elected it would be the end of the world as we know it.

    Jim Casey is contesting Grayndler again so expect Albanese to come out with the anti-Socialist scare campaign again.

  46. bug1 @ #514 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 4:33 pm

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/23/high-number-of-young-voters-create-record-enrolment-rate-of-968-for-election

    So an extra 750,000 voters, but only 32,000 in 18-24 year old group, i guess immigration counts for a part of the increase, wonder where the bulk of those come in ?

    You got me thinking. At first glance 32,000 is a small number when compared with 750,000. But then I thought about who these “kids” might be. The 18-24 group would have been 15-21 in 2016. What this might say is that in 2016 there were 32,000 more 15-21 year olds than there were 18-24 year olds (in 2016). If you subtract out the overlapping group, which presumably are common to both, you are left with 15,16,and 17 year olds (in 2016) and the 22,23, and 24 year olds (in 2016). The younger group (15, 16, 17) having 32,000 more in it then the older group (22, 23, 24) is believable. I expect both are fairly big groups.

  47. After copying the photos to your PC did you upload them to an image hosting service like I suggested?

    Could you post the link again please?

  48. For years, former senator Bill Heffernan was a lone voice in the Liberal Party, warning big water buybacks by taxpayers were “a fairytale” a “con job” and “a fraud” and “cooking the books”.

    Now, as controversy swirls about the $80 million deal that then water minister Barnaby Joyce signed off on two years ago, the maverick former politician is warning that both sides of politics need to quit playing games and work together to avoid a calamity.

    Mr Heffernan, a Junee farmer, does not believe water licences should have ever been issued to the two Queensland farms – Clyde and Kia Ora – at the centre of the latest controversy.

    “The chooks are coming home to roost,” he told The New Daily.

    His principle objection is that the water involves overland flows – water that depends on rainfall and flooding.

    “Where do you think the water is stored?” he said.

    “They say, ‘Oh Bill, it would be in the various dams’. I said ‘No, it’s not’.

    “It’s in the clouds. It doesn’t exist. So how can you sell a licence? It exists when you have a storm or a flood.

    “This particular deal, the Queensland government should never have issued the water licences.”

    Mr Heffernan’s criticism applies across the board – to Liberal and Labor ministers.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/04/23/heffernan-murray-darling-water/

  50. C@tmomma @ #514 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019 – 4:31 pm

    Hi KayJay,
    Sorry, I had a phone call.

    Now, it seems like the photos from my phone have downloaded okay to my Pictures file on my computer. However, when I tried to Copy one and Paste it here it didn’t transmute, so to speak. 🙂

    Great work – next step.

    Web picture hosting site.

    I always use Postimage.org

    So -o-o-o
    Log on to http://www.postimage.org.

    Which will show

    It is not necessary to log on but best to do so as your images will be available permanently

    You will then click on Upload which will show

    Choose your image – I always put my photos on the Desktop

    So -o -p

    and then

    You can then copy as indicated and paste into the Pollbludger comment box.

    If I have left out anything I blame Brown Bear (pictured).

    See how you go. 😇

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