Latest electorate-level campaign news updates for the Poll Bludger election guide:
• The Australian reports a uComms/ReachTEL poll for the Australian Forest Products Association gives the Liberals a surprise 54-46 lead in Bass, the north-eastern Tasmanian seat that has changed hands at seven of the last nine elections, most recently in favour of Labor incumbent Ross Hart in 2016. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 42.8%, Labor 32.6% and Greens 10%, though I would guess the balance includes an undecided component of around 6% that hasn’t been distributed. The two-party result suggests a much more favourable flow of preferences to the Liberals than in 2016, when Labor received fully 89.2% of Greens preferences as well as about 55% from the other two candidates. That would have converted the primary votes in the poll to a two-party total more like 51-49. The poll was conducted on Monday night from a sample of 847.
• Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports Labor is “distributing postal vote application forms across the blue-ribbon Liberal seats of Goldstein and Higgins for the first time ever”. As for the Liberals’ assessment of the situation in Victoria, you can take your pick between reports yesterday from The Australian and the Daily Telegraph. The former spoke of the Liberals “becoming less pessimistic about a wipeout”, with optimists speaking of the loss of two to four seats. But according to the latter, “the Coalition fears its losses will be worse than it expected before the campaign began”, to the extent of being “seriously concerned about the loss of up to eight seats”.
• The Melbourne seat of Chisholm has been much in the news over the past few days, partly on account of Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s overreach as she sought to bat off a question about her views on gender identity and same-sex marriage. Liu helped organise anti-Labor activity on popular Chinese language social media service WeChat at the 2016 election, much of it relating to the Safe Schools program, as she discussed at the time with Doug Hendrie of The Guardian. Confronted over her comments to Hendrie, Liu appeared to claim his report was “fake news”, and that she had been pointing to views that existed within the Chinese community rather than associating with them herself. However, Hendrie provided the ABC with a recording that showed Liu had been less careful on this point than she remembered. Thomas O’Brien of Sky News reported yesterday that a planned interview with Liu as part of its electorate profile had been cancelled by party headquarters, following earlier efforts to insist she not be questioned about the matter.
• Gladys Liu’s comments on Sunday were made at an Australian-first candidates’ debate conducted in Mandarin, the first language of Labor’s Taiwanese-born candidate Jennifer Yang, but only a third language of Liberal candidate Gladys Liu, who identifies her first languages as English and Cantonese. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian quoted a Labor strategist saying they expected Liu “use Ms Yang’s Taiwanese heritage against her with mainland Chinese voters”, but also indicates that Labor has a better handle on the importance of WeChat than it did in 2016. The service was also much discussed during the New South Wales state election campaign, with respect to the controversy generated by Labor leader Michael Daley’s statements of concern about the impact of Asian immigration on the employment and housing markets.
• Leaning heavily on the passive voice, a report in The Australian today says it is “understood” Labor polling shows it is unlikely to gain the regional Queensland seats of Capricornia, Flynn and Dawson, in addition to facing a “growing threat” in its own seat of Herbert. However, Labor is said to be encouraged by its polling in the Brisbane seats of Petrie, Bonner and Forde, and believes itself to be in the hunt in Brisbane and Dickson.
BTW, talking about baby boomers, superannuation, franking credits, etc.
I’m starting to encounter quite a few baby boomers, Labor voters all their lives, who are thinking of voting for a centrist party (if one is available) or even the Libs in the Senate in order to inhibit the introduction of Labor’s proposed policies.
My impression is that is a sizeable group of lifelong Labor voters – current and retired senior level bureaucrats, academics, school principals and senior teachers, etc. – who will be badly hit by these policies. I suspect there are quite a few posters and lurkers on PB who fall into that category.
As Victoria pointed out earlier, the truly rich won’t be badly affected by any tax changes, as they’ll find
ways of reorganising their affairs. They will fall hardest on the upper middle class, which seems to me to be a growing bastion of Labor support.
I’m not really trying to make a political point, just reporting something I’ve observed.
Jeffrey has posted a side-by-side with Cleese for added weight!
😆
‘Firefox says:
Wednesday, April 17, 2019 at 1:12 pm
“The Greens will push…’
Just like the Greens pushed the Liberals and the Nationals for the past six years?
The Greens are fake pushers.
Meher – I am sure the biggest proportion of those well-educated Labor supporters will say to themselves “well it was good while the rort lasted!” – then vote Labor
Spence says:
Wednesday, April 17, 2019 at 1:39 pm
‘The Greens can’t guarantee anything except…’ a bit of Labor bashing.
meher,
If you have hundreds of thousands of bucks worth of shares sufficient to give you c franking dividend handout, you ARE part of the wealthy. And you’re also not self-funded – the government is propping your lifestyle up.It’s literally the ultimate Boomer policy.
Labor has had enough of the Greens’ bullying, whining and treachery.
Firefox @ #326 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 1:12 pm
How could Labor possibly reject the Greens offer and again do a deal with the L/NP like they did in 2009 ?
That’s right, they couldn’t.
‘Firefox says:
Wednesday, April 17, 2019 at 12:56 pm
Good to see Kenneally is apparently going to be a witness for Hanson-Young in the case against Leyonhjelm. Always had a lot of time for KK and really enjoyed watching her and PVO when they used to be on Sky. I like that so many people from all over the place are backing Sarah.’
KK is not from all over the place. KK is core Labor. She will do something that SH-Y will never do: make a difference.
Boerwar @ #357 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 1:45 pm
more negging…
Scott Morrison will win the election on May 18 with a result of 51/49
meher baba @ 1.41pm,
One would have hoped that such educated and well-off folk would realise a rort when they were getting one, and an economically-unsustainable one at that, and use their brains and common sense to agree with that proposition and thus to also agree that it was good while it lasted but it’s time to not be so greedy any more.
‘Charles says:
Wednesday, April 17, 2019 at 12:32 pm
Rex
So that’s what your endless complaints on here about Labor, Shorten and Bowen boil down to?’
Nasty negging is Rex’s metier. The only way to deal with that is to ignore Rex 100%.
Burgey @ #354 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 1:45 pm
Yep. They are just plain greedy. Do they really need that extra holiday motorboating along the Rhine this year?
Firefox says:
Wednesday, April 17, 2019 at 1:32 pm
No, it’s solely the Greens decision.
Labor’s starting position, if it forms Government, will be it’s proposed legislation.
The question for the Greens is, is their position open for negotiations or is it an absolute.
If it’s the first, then it represents the basis for negotiation, however if it’s the second, then it’s a demand that demonstrates a lack of good will in the process.
And it’s not ‘their money’ either. It’s the taxpayers of Australia’s money which is being gifted to these non taxpayers.
Jonathan Lea of Channel 10 had two indignant rants at Bill Shorten in the space of, I think, three days. He was really wound up like a top.
Hey Wayne, are you going to bet your hard earned on the Coalition to win?
“Why can’t the Greens just say that their senators and MPs will be negotiating hard to get the best environmental outcomes regardless of who wins the election. That will maximise their vote.
The Greens can’t guarantee anything except their best efforts. When their vote is good then they can argue that there is strong public support for their policies.”
Well over a million Australians vote for the Greens, which easily makes them the third largest party. They overtook the Nats long ago. There is wide support for taking action on climate change in Australia. Poll after poll tells us that.
The Greens have been relentlessly pointing out how woeful the Coalition are when it comes to taking action on climate change. As Di Natale said of the Liberals recently, they’re just “dragging their knuckles”. A huge number of the Libs and Nats don’t even think climate change is a real problem.
Barney in Mui Ne @ #365 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 1:50 pm
The question is.. whether Shorten will do a Rudd and refuse to negotiate with the Greens and just do a deal with Morrison or Abbott or whoever is LOTO …?
If Labor does defeat the Coalition next month and forms our next Australian government, I would hope, for all our sakes that Bill Shorten will work with the Greens to get real and substantial climate change action under way in Australia. Sadly, Kevin Rudd (for reason/s unknown) when in government would never meet with the then leader of the Greens, Bob Brown to deliver real climate change action, but instead opted for a very weak and what would have been an ineffectual emissions reduction policy. The Greens were right to reject Rudd’s half hearted attempt to do something about climate change. Labor has got more serious about climate change action but still is dragging the chain with a 50% goal of renewables by 2030 when the ever growing climate emergency demands a 100% goal of renewable energy by 2030 PLUS a total end to all coal mining (meaning No Adani or any other mega mine in the Qld Galilee basin). Without the latter, a good bit of Labor’s climate change talk is just hot air…..
Boerwar @ #352 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 1:42 pm
They’re the mother of all fakers.
Boerwar @ #363 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 1:48 pm
Negging the Greens is all you’ve got.
David Crowe
@CroweDM
Sell the ABC, quit Paris, scrap the Fair Work Act… and hold a royal commission into the Bureau Of Meteorology. The IPA reveals its election plan:
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-election-2019/coalition-mps-urged-to-sell-the-abc-and-support-a-flat-tax-in-ipa-call-20190416-p51enu.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1555446899
Was Morrison chasing Bugs Bunny’s vote in the carrot patch?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OuFbyyt8k0
Mining revenues and consequently tax revenues will fall after this:
“Australian iron ore miners have shed more than $5 billion in value on Wednesday morning after Brazilian courts allowed Vale to re-open operations closed following a series of fatal mine dam disasters.”
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/bhp-cuts-iron-ore-guidance-after-wild-weather-impacts-mines-20190417-p51ex0.html
ScumMo’s forecast budget surplus next year is now fiction.
“No, it’s solely the Greens decision.
Labor’s starting position, if it forms Government, will be it’s proposed legislation.
The question for the Greens is, is their position open for negotiations or is it an absolute.
If it’s the first, then it represents the basis for negotiation, however if it’s the second, then it’s a demand that demonstrates a lack of good will in the process.”
That is not how the Senate works. If the government wishes to pass something then they will need to negotiate with the cross bench in order to get it through the Senate, unless of course they have a Senate majority which is very rare. The Senate is the house of review. It doesn’t exist to just wave through anything sent to it by the House of Reps. So when Labor passes legislation in the Reps and sends it on to the Senate, the Greens can then look at it and say “ok, we’ll pass this, but this bit needs changing”. Labor will need to negotiate. Shorten would be wise to get some lessons off Gillard on how to do it.
Hospitality workers to feel ‘$80 million’ penalty rate hit over 10-day holiday
https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/hospitality-workers-to-feel-80-million-penalty-rate-hit-over-10-day-holiday-20190416-p51elz.html?fbclid=IwAR2nzgNujr3lz7jEirONTfZAD3WTOmZMotAwCfISj1xKCMikK1OiJ8zqLo8
Charles,
Lea thinks he is a smart lad. He is not. Last night he came across as a prat. Tonight he will as well.
Doing Shorten a favour.
Charles @ #372 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 1:56 pm
I reckon Shorten will implement Labor Policy. If the Greens or any of the other minor parties have something positive to offer and act in good faith, then they might get a seat at the negotiating table. If they intend to threaten and blackmail, then Labor will look at alternative partners.
@Boerwar – 6 posts on this page alone (page 8 of comments, in case it moves before I post!), all sledging others – and you’re complaining about “nasty negging”? You?!
I don’t have much time for Rex (he’s a dyed-in-the-wool Lib, as far as I can see), but at least he doesn’t post whole strings of nasty, negative things about his favourite targets! When was the last time you contributed something besides attacks on some politician or poster to any discussion here…or elsewhere, for that matter?
@Firefox: Indeed, that is how negotiation with the Senate works. But I must admit that I have little faith in Di Natale – for all her flaws, Milne at least usually tried to get stuff done. Di Natale seems to be more interested in grandstanding and sledging Labor at every turn.
Customers have complained about a shortage of a popular iced coffee brand in South Australia, with its maker telling the ABC the drought and more demand for milk are to blame.
Key points:
Iced coffee varieties have been missing from South Australian supermarket shelves
Lion Dairy & Drinks says the drought and increased demand are to blame
Customers have posted their concerns on social media
Two-litre bottles of Farmers Union Iced Coffee have been missing from supermarket shelves in recent days, prompting dozens of people to share their concerns on social media.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-15/iced-coffee-supplies-running-low-as-drought-hits/11003336
Lion Dairy & Drinks, who own the iced coffee brand, said tough conditions had impacted supply.
I’d have thought the flavoured milks would be making more profit and would be the last to be dropped.
Instead they could put the price up on plain milk.
I heard Lea with shock jock Smith today. He sounds less like a reporter than a LNP operative. Perhaps he is auditioning for a job at Murdoch media.
Pretty silly to jump on someone for saying something as innocuous as “all over the place” in that context. Goes to show how reactive people get when they post here.
Same frequently occurs to other minority opinion holders, even those who express their views completely without rancour or emotion.
Beware of people calling themselves Centrists.
These are people that blame the Greens for Abbott winning and repealing Climate Change policy.
Totally ignoring that to get that legislation passed not only did Gillard and Combet agree so did conservative Independent Windsor and Oakshott.
These same people ignore that Phelps won Wentworth on 3 issues.
Chaos and Instability
Climate Change and
Asylum Seekers.
We have preferential compulsory voting. Minority Government did work.
I would have said except for the major parties but in both cases it only became minority government because of the first issue Phelps campaigned on.
Self inflicted wounds.
First lesson stop being scared of the rhetoric from the right. Have the balls to argue for what people want.
Its why Andrews won his majority. Its why Labor is winning too.
In government Labor wants their preferences having Greens Senators where they cannot have Labor ones. Its that horse called self interest.
“@Firefox: Indeed, that is how negotiation with the Senate works. But I must admit that I have little faith in Di Natale – for all her flaws, Milne at least usually tried to get stuff done. Di Natale seems to be more interested in grandstanding and sledging Labor at every turn.”
We are yet to see how effectively Di Natale and Shorten can work together and negotiate. It goes both ways. Richard has spent the last 6 years being highly critical of the Coalition government.
There needs to be a shake up for the ACMA not doing their job on false hoods by the media and media not being transparent about deliberately libs/nats bias
There has to be shake up for the AEC , for allowing the liberal and national parties continuing electoral deliberate fraud like behaviour and misleading claiming the Liberal party and National party outside of QLD are seperate political entity , when the evidence shows otherwise
There is no difference in policy or politics between the Liberal and national partys , also the IPA is a propaganda arm for the libs/nats , the AEC got 100% evidence of the connections with the IPA and liberal party/national parties , there are IPA members who are liberal party member of parliament
Rob says:
Wednesday, April 17, 2019 at 1:53 pm
The Greens were right to reject Rudd’s half hearted attempt to do something about climate change.
———————
You think siding with the Coalition and rejecting taking any action on climate change was a good decision? Doing nothing is better than anything else accept what you judge as perfection. That just about sums up the Greens.
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, April 17, 2019 at 1:53 pm
That all depends on the numbers in the Senate.
There’s no use negotiating with the Greens if means putting everyone else offside, you won’t have the numbers to pass it.
It may be that a majority can be formed with others.
That’s why the Greens need to be flexible if they want to be part of a solution.
It all comes down to the reality of the numbers.
Peter Stanton
You have fallen for the rhetoric.
Climate legislation was passed. You do not need to go back and do what if because Abbott lied his way to victory.
If Jay Weatherill had taken the approach of the rhetoric here there would never have been a Tesla Battery b
Shellbell says:
Wednesday, April 17, 2019 at 12:58 pm
NSW Pendulum post 2019 election thanks to Ben Raue
http://www.tallyroom.com.au/38296
———————
What an amazing and fascinating piece of work.
It really shows what progressives are up against as the blue tide gradually sweeps beyond Sydney’s north shore, eastern surburbs and shire. The Tory blue numbers in the 70-80 per cent range are disturbing, reflecting the greedy polity we live in today.
My mother would be spinning in her grave if she knew that her working class suburb in Sydney is now showing Coalition voting in the 70’s percentage wise.
Rob says:
Wednesday, April 17, 2019 at 1:53 pm
If Labor does defeat the Coalition next month and forms our next Australian government, I would hope, for all our sakes that Bill Shorten will work with the Greens to get real and substantial climate change action under way in Australia. Sadly, Kevin Rudd (for reason/s unknown) when in government would never meet with the then leader of the Greens, Bob Brown to deliver real climate change action, but instead opted for a very weak and what would have been an ineffectual emissions reduction policy. The Greens were right to reject Rudd’s half hearted attempt to do something about climate change. Labor has got more serious about climate change action but still is dragging the chain with a 50% goal of renewables by 2030 when the ever growing climate emergency demands a 100% goal of renewable energy by 2030 PLUS a total end to all coal mining (meaning No Adani or any other mega mine in the Qld Galilee basin). Without the latter, a good bit of Labor’s climate change talk is just hot air…..
____________________________________________________________
Kevin Rudd did not meet with the Greens to talk about an emissions reduction scheme because Labor and the Greens combined did not have the numbers in the Senate.
The only way such a policy could have got through would have been with Labor and the Coalition agreeing to one, or, Labor, the Greens and at least two Coalition senators defecting to support one.
In fact, in early 2010 two Coalition senators did vote for the previously-agreed emissions reduction policy, but with the Greens voting with the now Tony Abbott-led Coalition and other climate change deniers in the Senate, it fell over.
The result: nine lost years on climate action.
Hopefully the Greens will have learned from committing such an own goal and adopt a more sensible approach next time.
If The Libs lose, then it’ll be off the back of them not having a consistent Climate Change policy (among other things). labor’s policy is not much different to the NEG policy proposed by the Libs and that passed the Party Room a couple of times but was never implemented. I’d say the Libs might cut their losses and be amenable to a policy they basically support. So Greens huffing and puffing might leave them with nothing again.
“… current and retired senior level bureaucrats, academics, school principals and senior teachers…” – hang on, therein lies the problem! Almost none of those people will be affected by Labor’s franking credit changes at all, as they would (almost) all be receiving superannuation pensions from government-backed super funds – and those pensions are taxable income. So, their franking credits would be offset first against the (taxable) dividend income and then (if there’s any left over) against the tax payable on the taxable super pension income – it would only be any excess after that which is not refundable. It is highly unlikely that Labor’s franking credit changes would have any bite at all on these people.
Labor does have a serious messaging problem with this – far more people THINK they will be affected by the changes than will ACTUALLY be the case. I blame Bowen’s office for this – its a great policy being sold badly. The people who are affected are the SMSF brigade whose pensions are non-taxable as a result of the other half of the Howard Costello largesse – to exempt those pensions from tax. Because the pensions are non-taxable, the income tax thresholds mean that the dividend income streams never hit the tax bracket at which a tax rate kicks in that is higher than the underlying 30% tax credit that attaches to the franked dividend.
What Labor should be doing is to provide some worked examples showing scenarios where people (mostly) won’t be affected, as well as a couple of scenarios where people will be affected. For example: “Andrew is a retired primary school teacher with a $50,000 per year super pension and a share portfolio valued at $300,000, from which is earns fully franked dividends of $12,000 per year” = Not affected; whereas “Barbara is a retired company director and business owner. She receives a $150,000 tax-free pension from her SMSF, and has a $500,000 share portfolio from which she earns $20,000 a year in fully franked dividends” = Affected. People just don’t have enough enough information readily available to work out whether they are affected or not – so they are assuming that the”Retirement Tax” will knock out their franking credits – when it actually won’t. By staying silent, Labor is letting the FriedScoMo disinformation campaign do its dirty work.
There is also a certain irony that a person with a $20 million share portfolio earning non-taxable super pensions and $700,000 in franked dividends (and no other taxable income) wouldn’t be affected by the Labor franking changes.
Barney in Mui Ne @ #390 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 2:13 pm
Albanese said that Shorten is the best negotiator he’s ever seen.
Has Labor said all it is going to say about an integrity commission? I would have thought that is going to be a huge announcement with lots of dollars attached, etc etc, with about two weeks to go.
“I’m starting to encounter quite a few baby boomers, Labor voters all their lives, who are thinking of voting for a centrist party (if one is available) or even the Libs in the Senate in order to inhibit the introduction of Labor’s proposed policies.”
I worry that you are right – I’ve heard a few well off and slightly older ‘leftie’ friends whining about this – and have found out they are using different ways to shirk tax and are annoyed that they might have to pay it now. A supposedly hard left mate has kept many $100,000s in his business account, planning to pay himself it as franked dividends over several years when he retires and claim the tax refund and is miffed/angry to think he might now pay tax on it – he thinks he has paid a lot of tax in his life and was counting on not paying it on this, so he thinks he is entitled to it. I doubt labor will get his preferences now but he’ll feel pure because he’ll vote greens first. I got into a fight with him about this.
I think Labor might have played too big a target and underestimated baby boomer greed and entitlement. It will be interesting to see how this block of wealthy whitlam-ites vote when they get into the booth – all they will need is the slightest excuse not to give shorten a go so they can justify their self-interest. They’ll vote progressive centre, say that labor and the libs are ‘the same’ and give preferences to the libs. Labor needs to get on the front foot re: climate change and health care to keep these pricks in the tent.
if labor really wanted to pick an intergenerational fight they’d make the boomers pay retrospective HECS for their free uni education.
lizzie @ #196 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 10:37 am
They also grew up in a world devastated by war or its effects.
In Australia they saw families living in old army camps or even tents due to the war induced housing shortage.
There was no free university for them and most did not complete high school.
They probably grew up in a small home their parents had built, possibly under the war service housing scheme, with fibro (asbestos cement) walls, no insulation and an outdoor dunny.
Few families owned a car and travel was limited.
A phone call between Melbourne and Sydney had to be booked hours ahead and was very expensive.
Yes, life was so easy for the boomers. But it did get progressively easier as Australia prospered in the post-war era, and they and their parents worked hard.
GG
I think you along with Central Allance will be surprised at how fast Labor moves on Climate Change.
Its why I referred to rhetoric. That applies to the Greens campaigning too.
In government I expect Federal Labor will be doing Weatherill and Andrews.
They won’t be negotiating with the Hard Right.
Not only on this site but in face to face debates with supporters of political parties ,
Labor , the greens supporters are the one who get more emotional about the politics , the libs/nats supporters who i have met and debated seems not to care one bit on what Shorten or Labor do , they just play on the lines the media propaganda