BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Not much doing in the one published poll to emerge since the start of the election campaign, reflected in a stable reading from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Despite the onset of the election campaign, there is only one new data point to add to BludgerTrack this week, which is a status quo 52-48 result from Newspoll that has duly little effect on the national vote trends. Such movement as there is is away from One Nation and towards the Coalition on the primary vote, with next to no impact on two-party preferred or the seat projection, where the Coalition makes a single gain in Victoria.

Since there is no new state-level data this week, the breakdowns continue to record an unnatural looking lurch to the Coalition in New South Wales, which I would want to see corroborated by more data. The leadership trends are interesting in that an upswing in Scott Morrison’s net approval has returned him, just barely, to net positive territory. The effect on preferred prime minister is more modest, but there appears to be a slight trend in his favour there too.

However, the biggest news in BludgerTrack this week as far as I’m concerned is that a helpful reader has told me how to fix the bug that was preventing the state breakdown tabs from working much of the time. If this was causing you grief before, there is a very good chance it will not be doing so if you try again now, which you can do through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,586 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

  1. So, if the wiggle and Brandt get ‘the vibe’ over their steel cut oats that Labor’s ‘weak’ legislation is nonetheless ‘real’, even if it is watered down further to NEG levels by CA, then they might then vote to pass it that that day. Otherwise … another decade of inaction beckons Guytaur?

    Pity those fuckers didn’t get the ‘its Real’ vibe back in December 2009, isn’t it.

  2. AE

    Central Alliance will be to blame if they block action on climate change.

    Just like it was the LNP that were to blame last time.
    There is no point in the Greens signing up to something that does not deliver.

    That’s the point from their point of view.
    Moan groan all you want. It won’t change the fact that the Greens have proven they can work with conservatives on climate change.

    Your whining and expectation of failure can be a self fulfilling prophecy.

  3. Firefox
    You are completely ignoring the reality of each and everyone of those Labor governments.
    And how often were they successful? How often did the Greens element overplay their hand.
    Name calling…. nah irrelevant.
    You defeat your own argument by not being sufficiently knowledgeable re the agreements and outcomes in each of these arrangements.
    Your very new at this caper and ill-informed.

  4. They should tell Sportsbet
    Labor $1.10 Coalition $6.00

    Don’t know where you’re getting that number.

    Currently has Labor $1.22 and Coalition $4.00

  5. RL
    No probs. Im just watching for changes in seat betting as well as the national overall result betting as a ‘mood on the ground’guide.Since Bass had that poll earlier in the week there was a change in the betting odds making the Coalition slight favourites at $1.82 to $1.90.We will see if Corangamite changes after this poll.

  6. “Two further points. The first sentence I’ve quoted above is proof positive that it is The Black Wiggle’s rhetoric about Labor’s climate change policy that is unhinged: given the likely composition of the senate it will be a dream realised IF labor can get its policy up.

    Secondly, Labor + Green + CA is 2009 all over again – not your nirvana of 2011. If the Greens can’t get their way, will they settle for Labor’s ‘weak’ second best optional? When the two liberal senators defected in 2009 the Greens didn’t grab that opportunity. Given the wiggle’s entrenched and rabid positioning, why do you think the Greens will settle for second best this time? Or third best – if CA can’t be shifted beyond the NEG?”

    As I’ve stated about 50 times already on PB, the Rudd CPRS was inadequate. Labor refused to negotiate with the Greens to imporive it and instead tried to pass it with Turnbull’s help. That’s all on Labor. The Greens left their door open to Labor to come back to them and negotiate but Labor didn’t.

    The Black Wiggle? Really? Ok… As far as insulting nicknames go that’s pretty pathetic lol. If you’re going to be immature like that at least make it slightly funny. Krudd, Phoney Tony, Turdbull/Turncoat, SlowMo/ScuMo, and of course, BULL SHITTEN. It wouldn’t be untrue to say that Labor supporters like
    good old BS! lol

    Anyway, back to being serious.

    We’ve got no idea what the Senate will look like. However, let’s assume for a moment that Labor + Greens + CA can get to a majority. Centre Alliance actually support a full emissions trading scheme! They (well Xenophon actually) got Frontier Economics to model an ETS back in… wait for it… 2009 as an ALTERNATIVE to… yep, that’s right, Rudd’s CPRS. It seems that CA hasn’t changed their policy since they were the Nick Xenophon Team, or just Xenophon himself as an independent.

    Just looking at CA’s environmental goals on their website, I think they could definitely be negotiated with. They definitely aren’t climate deniers by any stretch. Have a look: https://centrealliance.org.au/policies/environment/

  7. “Firefox
    You are completely ignoring the reality of each and everyone of those Labor governments.
    And how often were they successful? How often did the Greens element overplay their hand.
    Name calling…. nah irrelevant.
    You defeat your own argument by not being sufficiently knowledgeable re the agreements and outcomes in each of these arrangements.
    Your very new at this caper and ill-informed.”

    Stop wasting my time with this nonsense. You haven’t even raised any issues, you’re just asking questions and spinning because you’ve been found out. Come back and talk to me when you have something substantive to contribute to the debate.

  8. “Firefly – you are incoherent.

    Not half an hour before that post you were declaiming that the Greens must hold Labor to account, by which you mean getting Labor to shift towards the Greens policy platform. Especially on climate change.

    One problem – each of the negotiating pathway alternatives you listed will take Labor further away from the Greens policy platform.

    Therein lies the conundrum – the same one as existed in 2009: Labor + Greens = a number less than 39 in the senate and hence legislative defeat. Far from ‘holding Labor to account’, the Greens will likely have to compromise further than even the labor policy platform you are so willing to shit can, or face policy gridlock, yet again.

    How do you like those apples?

    I’m betting that when faced with the 2009 conundrum the Greens will … chose poorly … again.”

    Excuse me? The whole point is that Labor has the choice of negotiating with the Greens and maybe CA to pass climate change policy, or they don’t pass climate change policy at all. Because you see negotiating with either the far right or the Coalition is going to achieve 4/5ths of bugger all. You know as well as I do that most of them don’t even believe climate change is real. So Labor can try and negotiate with the far right if they wish but that won’t get them anywhere. So it’s pretty much negotiate with the Greens or nothing.

    I like my apples thanks, how do you like yours? 😉

  9. It appears that questions might be asked during Insiders on Sunday regarding some water buybacks :

    Samuel Clark Verified account @sclark_melbs

    Samuel Clark Retweeted Rex Patrick

    We have @Senator_Patrick on @InsidersABC tomorrow and will be asking him about this report from @hamishNews

    Rex Patrick
    ‏Verified account @Senator_Patrick
    14h14 hours ago
    Well done to @theprojecttv for this investigative piece into water buybacks. It’s one of many reports, including from @TheAusInstitute and @GuardianAus , and questioning in the Senate that demonstrates the need for a #MurrayDarling Federal Royal Commission

    Samuel Clark is the Executive Producer of Insiders.

    I wonder if Barnaby will still be out of range?

  10. Will someone please force Not so Briefly or Gormless Growler or any of the other pseudo Tories on here to donate a dollar to charity every time they para phrase Whitlam’s only the impotent are pure line? It’s getting almost as tedious as Not So’s…Libling crap.

  11. Well, let us hope that this here scandal is a decent one, that painfully plays out over the week.

    Anything to ensure that this mob are booted out.

    Fizzers will not be accepted.

  12. The buybacks issue isn’t going anywhere. It’s been out in the wild for two days already, after two years of intermittent coverage before that, hasn’t made it into the weekend papers and sure isn’t going to survive the media cycle until Tuesday when everyone starts paying attention again.

    Laura Tingle’s just given it a bit of a re-run to pad out the word count on her latest analysis, that is all. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-20/election-2019-shorten-morrison-go-spinal-tap/11032414

    See also https://10daily.com.au/shows/theproject/exclusive/a190418jmb/hamish-investigates-did-the-government-just-waste-80-million-buying-water-20190418

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Peter Hartcher says that it’s time for political day of reckoning over climate change.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/a-climate-reckoning-is-coming-to-our-political-hothouse-20190419-p51fph.html
    The Saturday Paper’s Jill Abramson also unload on the Murdoch empire’s influence.
    https://www.outline.com/NkGj8Y
    Katharine Murphy tells us how buying international permits is a cheap way to cut emissions.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/18/buying-international-permits-is-a-cheap-way-to-cut-emissions-its-that-simple
    Fergus Hunter tells us why a fed-up Bill Shorten has turned on News Corp.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/scare-campaigns-and-propaganda-why-a-fed-up-bill-shorten-has-turned-on-news-corp-20190418-p51fe6.html
    Just have a look at the stories on today’s Australian to see the flavour.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/
    David Wroe reports that Labor has demanded Facebook investigate apparent “fake news” posts claiming the opposition is planning to introduce a “death tax” on inheritances, in the first major test of the social media giant’s promise to crack down on false election material.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/labor-demands-facebook-remove-fake-news-posts-about-false-death-tax-plans-20190419-p51fpk.html
    Mike Seccombe gets inside the GetUp! election machine.
    https://www.outline.com/32gr48
    Paul Bongiorno says Labor is using Dutton as the Easter Bunny.
    https://www.outline.com/gNXemb
    I found this report from Jacqui Maley on Morrison’s Pentecostalism very difficult of handle.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/inside-our-pentecostal-pm-s-church-20190416-p51ekx.html
    This is a thought provoking article on Anzac Day from a lady veteran.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-m-the-changing-face-of-anzac-day-now-let-s-save-the-day-s-spirit-20190418-p51faf.html
    Karen Middleton reveals that a mailout from the federal government to age pensioners on the eve of the election campaign cost taxpayers $2.1 million and raised concerns about the timing of the correspondence.
    https://www.outline.com/wgRcBU
    Dana McCauley describes the tit-for-tat action of the Morrison government being set to unveil a $100 million plan to help Australians with cancer and rare diseases access cutting-edge treatment no matter where they live.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/scott-morrison-pledges-100-million-to-help-rural-cancer-patients-20190419-p51fo5.html
    Christmas Island trauma counsellor Christine Cummins has written a book about her five years’ experience there.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6078716/trauma-counsellor-brings-stories-from-christmas-island-to-mps/?cs=14232
    Eryk Bagshaw explains how competing tax plans at the heart of the federal election will fail to prevent new mothers from taking a massive hit for returning to work, with fresh figures showing a woman typically loses 90 per cent of her wage for every extra day she uses childcare and in many cases actually pays to work.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/ninety-per-cent-tax-for-a-day-s-work-the-battle-facing-aussie-mums-20190418-p51fav.html
    The Saturday Paper says that there is limited evidence that more funding will encourage specialists to bulk-bill, and cynics within the medical community say it won’t have an impact. So, with private specialists free to set their own fees, Labor’s plan will hinge on expanding cancer services in public hospitals.
    https://www.outline.com/jvMEpD
    Anson Cameron writes about the thirsty giants killing our rivers.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/the-thirsty-giants-killing-our-rivers-20190411-p51d4j.html
    Residents in the federal seat of Warringah are complaining about telephone push polling, unwanted copies of the Daily Telegraph arriving on their lawns and election posters being defaced.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/19/warringah-voters-complain-about-free-copies-of-daily-telegraph-as-election-rancour-boils
    Tom Switzer is of the opinion that Australia is not a racist nation. That may be so but it does not mean racism does not exist here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/from-british-race-patriotism-to-inclusion-we-are-not-a-racist-nation-20190419-p51fl2.html
    Strong demand for high-quality distribution centres has led investors to re-weight their portfolios away from retail centres and into industrial property.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/growth-of-online-shopping-has-made-logistics-property-a-winner-20190410-p51cw8.html
    According to the AFR shareholders of National Australia Bank have good reason to feel completely let down by the board and management of the bank over the past five years.
    https://www.outline.com/S2c2nf
    And industry super funds are gunning for David Murray at AMP’s AGM.
    https://www.outline.com/bfd3P6
    It seems that standover merchants are active in the Melbourne club scene.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/the-other-rent-the-price-of-doing-business-in-melbourne-20190417-p51f3w.html
    Trump has branded the Mueller report as “crazy” and the Democrats have issued a sub poena for the full, unredacted document.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-calls-mueller-report-crazy-democrats-subpoena-unredacted-version-20190420-p51fr9.html
    Bruce Wolpe unpacks the Mueller report and describes it as a tale of two insults to America’s democracy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/a-tale-of-two-insults-to-us-democracy-the-mueller-report-unpacked-20190419-p51fm5.html
    Jonathan Freedland writes that the Mueller report shows that bad guys who play dirty, like Trump, always win.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/19/mueller-report-bad-guys-play-dirty-trump-democrats-duty
    Richard Wolffe says that of course Trump’s campaign colluded with Russia but unfortunately that’s not a crime.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/18/trump-collusion-russia-mueller-barr
    New Zealand Food Safety has stung a New Zealand company that has pleaded guilty to charges of adding artificial chemicals to its premium manuka honey, media reported, in a flagship prosecution over a product that is a high-value export for the country.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/premium-new-zealand-honey-producer-admits-adding-chemicals-report-20190419-p51fox.html
    Why the European far right’s bid to weaponise Notre Dame won’t work.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/19/europe-far-right-weaponise-notre-dame-christian
    Clearly this lovely couple get today’s nomination for “Arseholes of the Week”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/couple-who-tortured-12-kids-in-california-house-of-horrors-sentenced-20190420-p51frb.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Alan Moir reflects.

    Matt Davison on climate change.

    An April holiday calendar from Andrew Dyson.

    From Matt Golding.





    Jim Pavlidis recognises Eddie Betts’ 300th game.

    And he thinks time is running out on climate change politics.

    Zanetti lines up Clive Palmer.

    Two Easter offerings from Sean Leahy.


    Jon Kudelka with another one on Falau.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/a0fffafa06dc59e2be81bad4a0074e0e?width=1024

    From the US


  14. How WhatsApp, FaceTime and other encryption apps shaped the outcome of the Mueller report

    Special Counsel Robert S. Mueller III detailed multiple contacts among Russian operatives and associates of President Trump in the report made public Thursday. But Mueller repeatedly also lamented what he couldn’t learn — because encrypted communications had put key conversations beyond his reach.

    “The Office learned that some of the individuals we interviewed or whose conduct we investigated — including some associated with the Trump Campaign — deleted relevant communications or communicated during the relevant period using applications that feature encryption or that do not provide for long-term retention of data or communications records,” Mueller wrote in his executive summary.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2019/04/19/how-whatsapp-facetime-other-encryption-apps-shaped-outcome-mueller-report/?utm_term=.32ec342536b5

  15. sprocket at 10.45pm
    That is brilliant!

    Ophuph Hucksake
    The LNP is a collection of spivs and shysters, every one of them more concerned with their own position and wealth than the good of Australia, and prepared to forsake any pretence of morality. Barnaby and Taylor are just the latest examples.

  16. clem @ #1568 Saturday, April 20th, 2019 – 2:41 am

    Will someone please force Not so Briefly or Gormless Growler or any of the other pseudo Tories on here to donate a dollar to charity every time they para phrase Whitlam’s only the impotent are pure line? It’s getting almost as tedious as Not So’s…Libling crap.

    And there are none so tedious as one trick pony, chainsaw clem.

  17. Thank you BK.
    There have been a number of references to a ‘Phony War’. I remind readers that the Germans swallowed up half of Poland during the so-called Phony War and that the war at sea was not a bit phony.

  18. nath @ #1531 Friday, April 19th, 2019 – 11:52 pm

    EGW
    The Labor Party from its inception has been strongly Democratic Socialist / Social Democratic in its outlook and policies.
    Read some history of the Labor party such as ‘How Labour Governs’ by V. Gordon Childe or ‘Things Worth Fighting For’ Ed A. W. Stargardt for example.
    __________________________________
    You can go on forever about the nature of the pre 50s ALP. labourist, socialist. I’m talking about post war, post materialist Keynesian Social Democracy, which Whitlam advanced and attempted to implement.

    Oh wow!
    So in a Keynesian post WWII world, Whitlam was a Keynesian? As well as retaining Labor’s old Social Democratic / Democratic Socialist ethos? I am stunned. I never realised.

  19. Gorks @ #1555 Saturday, April 20th, 2019 – 12:51 am

    Geelong Advertiser reports a seat poll where Coalition MP Sarah Henderson in Corongamite would win. Reachtel poll.

    Can’t access it due to the paywall.

    https://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/news/geelong/sarah-henderson-on-track-to-retain-corangamite-according-to-new-poll-figures/news-story/56e16afb84cdbe81952cc194e0736cef

    Gorks, next time he posts the information, read what KJ has to say and install anti-paywall for your browser.
    I had no trouble reading that article and have no trouble with AFR, Australian etc.

  20. “Labor refused to negotiate with the Greens to imporive it and instead tried to pass it with Turnbull’s help. That’s all on Labor.”

    Ummm. No. First of all, there WERE preliminary discussions between KRudd and the Greens. Three things were immediately obvious to Labor. Firstly, the Greens wanted to put much of the Australian economy on punishment detail. Before they would negotiate the scheme Milne and the Greens emphatically insisted that Labor commit to a 25% cut in emissions by 2020 BEFORE negotiations between the Greens and Labor could take place. Yet, Labor reached out to the Greens in both May and August 2009 when the opposition at that time was stalling its negotiations only for the same starting position to be kicked in Labor’s face.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/govt-turns-to-greens-on-emissions-trade-20090531-brcf.html

    Secondly, the Greens were not offering anything that was capable of passing the senate. They had 5 votes. Xenophon was offering an even weaker form of the ETS that was modelled by Frontier Economics – a model that in his weaker moments Gilderoy Lockhart signalled his support on behalf of the LNP. Then there was Fielding. Less useful than an earthworm, to parse Dawkins. It was “all on” the composition of the senate at the time. Not Labor. Yet the Greens insisted that Labor agree on something that could not ever pass the threshold in the senate of the day.

    Thirdly, the Greens were not capable of negotiating themselves back into the game. For example, they emphatically rejected Nick Xenophon’s alternative model. You are simply rewriting history Firefly to use Xenophon as an example of Labor’s failure to negotiate.

    The fact was that the negotiating pathways for labor were very narrow to begin with and the Greens intransigence made them even narrower.

    How much better off would we be in 2020 if the Greens weren’t so intransigent? Even on the CRPS as passed in its original form? The answer to that is obviously a hell of a lot better off than where we are today.

    Maybe Labor would not have achieved the full reduction of the Greens 25% ‘minimum’, but a hell of a lot closer than where we are now. We’d be a much better country now. Both in terms of the environment directly, but also in terms of avoiding the Abbott apocalypse of bad government of the past 6 years more generally.

    Further, that’s before one considers the ability of the next three parliaments to amend and improve the scheme incrementally and progressively over the past decade.

    For example: It now seems tolerably clear that Combet would have harmonised the CRPS with the European scheme by about 2012/13. We could focus on what I believe to be the true environmental challenge facing this country – rampant land clearing for (mainly) the live meat export trade. Instead where are we? Totem “stop Adani” campaigns and the LNP still stuck in the full lunatic mode.

    The 2009 Greens clusterfuck is a salutary lesson in not rejected the best and last option on the table that (1) progresses the issue, and (2) doesn’t rule out future progress.

    Having said that, let me briefly deal with guytaur’s undoubted response concerning the 2011 negotiations – how that somehow “proves” the Greens bonafides. In reality 2011 proves the other reality of political negotiations: if the negotiators can’t take the people – actual voters – with them, then the negotiated outcome is ultimately doomed.

    The fundamental problem with the 2011 wasn’t one of policy. Rather the deal struck was way outside the Overton window of 2010-13. It took only one month for the opinion polls to clearly demonstrate that the progressive side of politics lost over 1 million votes and the progressive side never got them back by the time of the following election.

    I know Guy likes to blame shift – finding a convenient scapegoat win KRudd and the ongoing Labor Leadershit. Or Gillard’s own flaws as a political salesperson. Or sexism in the media.

    There may be some truth to all of that. What transcends such points however is the simple fact that the deal represented a breach of trust with the Australian people and I note that it wasn’t just Labor that lost a massive amount of votes. So did the Greens: over 500,000 in the senate. Whilst labor lost 800,000 the Greens had a lot less votes to lose to begin with – their loses represented more than 30% of their 2010 result. A staggering reverse.

    Whatever the negotiated outcome is on emissions post election for it to have a snowflakes chance of enduring it cannot surprise and baffle the Australian people in the way that the 2011 deal clearly did. It has to be inside the present Overton window. Then the Greens and Labor can pivot towards further progress in the following term. Why? Because of of the shift in the parameters that such a deal would mean to the Overton window.

    In a nutshell – if Labor delivers something close to its election policy it will gain the trust and confidence of the Australian people to be bolder and more progressive down the track. THAT’s the price that the Greens should seek to extract from Labor and you know what? I reckon Labor would be up for it – and it occurs to me that’s one reason why Labor has included international credits in its 2030 targets package. Because such credits will form an essential segue into a full ETS down the track. The Greens should negotiate for the pivot, when it occurs, than position itself with an unconditional demand before negotiations could occur, like they did in 2009. Yet the Greens rhetoric to date is a 2009 redux. It doesn’t inspire confidence …

  21. “There have been a number of references to a ‘Phony War’. I remind readers that the Germans swallowed up half of Poland during the so-called Phony War and that the war at sea was not a bit phony.”

    And then there was Churchill’s Norway adventure. …

  22. “In a nutshell – if Labor delivers something close to its election policy it will gain the trust and confidence of the Australian people to be bolder and more progressive down the track.”

    What makes life easier for Labor is not a priority for the Greens. Our priority is protecting the environment and tackling climate change. “Down the track” is too late mate. We need to act NOW. We don’t have time for Labor to go softly on this. There is massive support in the community for taking action on climate change. Do not let the far right deniers scare you (Labor) off doing what it right. The Greens and Labor CAN work together on this but we need to do it properly and make meaningful change. Tinkering around the edges isn’t good enough.

  23. It’s not about what makes life easier for Labor. Or the Greens. Rather it’s all about making public progress that endures firefly.

    I find your responses replete with dishonesty. The Greens rebuffed Labor thrice in 2009 because their insistence on labor publically agreeing to a 25% cut by 2020 BEFORE negotiations could even begin – knowing full well that there was ZERO other votes in the senate for such an outcome.

    Worse than that dishonesty is the cognitive dissonance the Greens do about just how emphatically their 2011 deal was rebuffed by the voting public: you don’t even acknowledge the 500,000 voters who walked away from you in the senate: let alone the 1.5 million who walked away from progressive politics generally.

    You are a flog and a dishonest grub

  24. “The Greens and Labor CAN work together on this but we need to do it properly and make meaningful change”

    Doesn’t that require that either of those parties are able to command a majority of the Parliament? As it’s unlikely it’ll be the Green’s, the ALP needs to have policies that make it electable.

    At present, it appears that the Green’s policies, if adopted by the ALP would result in it losing seats.

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