BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Not much doing in the one published poll to emerge since the start of the election campaign, reflected in a stable reading from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Despite the onset of the election campaign, there is only one new data point to add to BludgerTrack this week, which is a status quo 52-48 result from Newspoll that has duly little effect on the national vote trends. Such movement as there is is away from One Nation and towards the Coalition on the primary vote, with next to no impact on two-party preferred or the seat projection, where the Coalition makes a single gain in Victoria.

Since there is no new state-level data this week, the breakdowns continue to record an unnatural looking lurch to the Coalition in New South Wales, which I would want to see corroborated by more data. The leadership trends are interesting in that an upswing in Scott Morrison’s net approval has returned him, just barely, to net positive territory. The effect on preferred prime minister is more modest, but there appears to be a slight trend in his favour there too.

However, the biggest news in BludgerTrack this week as far as I’m concerned is that a helpful reader has told me how to fix the bug that was preventing the state breakdown tabs from working much of the time. If this was causing you grief before, there is a very good chance it will not be doing so if you try again now, which you can do through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,586 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  1. The “unnatural looking lurch to the Coalition in NSW” in contrast to figures for Victoria is perplexing in a largely un explained manner as was the result of the NSW state election.
    Is it probable that NSW, particularly Sydney is not reacting to a need to dismiss the Liberals as appears to be the mood elsewhere. I remain perplexed!

  2. @Goll

    I’d likewise be interested in some explanatory data, but taking a stab I’d say any and all of the following may play a role: Sydney house prices, finance sector, NSW vs. Vic PM, NSW conservatism, The Daily Telegraph.

  3. I sure do hope that Firefox doesn’t bring his, rewritten in The Greens’ favour, ancient history lessons with him to this thread!

  4. Thank you WB. Your analysis seems to confirm what you would expect. A drop in the ON vote leading to a drift back to the Libs on primaries, but no nett effect on the TPP as they were likely to end up there even if ON had continued to have some attraction to some voters.

    I’d interpret this is as the voters locked in to their long term positions and the campaign, to date, not having any major impact on voting intention. The Easter break and Anzac Day will come and go and then voters might start to engage.

    Weather prediction is more showers of Labor-Greens snark for the next week or so.

  5. In NSW, the pro LNP spin in the commercial tv news is relentless. The ABC news (radio & tv) plus some radio announcers are noticeably pro LNP.

    But the real culprits are the program producers who appear to be like battered spouses as they try to ensure they don’t get any more criticism from Gov’t politicians or the Murdoch ‘journos’ who seem to live there.

    What will save us, hopefully, is many people have stopped listening, and will vote as soon as the pre-polling opens on April 29. That way they don’t have to think about it anymore.

  6. C@t, the Revisionist account of the past is no more than a cup of warm cocoa for the revisers. It means nothing to anyone else. It’s hard enough trying to get people to take an interest in current politics, let alone the incredibly tedious and self-serving re-telling of the past by a partisan.

    For Labor, it’s plain the Gs are an enemy. They are intent on preventing the election of a Labor Government. This is their constant goal. Everything the Gs do is calibrated by this purpose. Everything.

  7. @ellenmfanning
    14h14 hours ago

    In 1969, my father, a quadriplegic, was saving hard to buy an electric wheelchair. He never got to buy it. My mum used the savings for his funeral later that year. 50 years later, why are we still crying over wheelchairs? @ScottMorrisonMP @billshortenmp #ndis #auspol

  8. briefly,
    All I can add is that I am glad that I am not a member of The Greens. I can see now how their petty squabbles blow up into major intra party war! Each and every one of them has to have the last word. Accompanied by a tome rivaling War and Peace! 😆

  9. More promises Morrison cannot keep.

    Accountants have disputed the Prime Minister’s claim that promised tax cuts of $1080 can be paid immediately from July 1 and questioned if the Australian Tax Office is being “pressured” to suggest otherwise.

    Parliament now faces a tight timeframe to legislate the tax cuts to ensure that they can be paid from July 1. MPs are unlikely to return to Canberra before late June.

    The release of the Pre Election Economic and Fiscal Outlook again raised the issue, noting that “the immediate relief to low- and middle-income earners … requires the relevant legislation to be passed before the increase to the low- and middle-income tax offset (LMITO) can be provided for the 2018-19 financial year”.

    It said: “If not legislated prior to 1 July, 2019, the revenue cost of this measure would need to be reassessed.”

    …“The ATO have clearly said we actually can’t do that. As a matter of practice, the ATO wants to administer the law of the day – not come up with special fixes that is outside their powers,” Mr Drum said.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/04/18/no-legislation-no-cheques-accountants-dispute-pms-timeline-on-promised-tax-cuts/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020190418

  10. JUST IN: The Justice Department says it will hold a press conference to release the Mueller report at 9:30 a.m. ET Thursday

    Which I calculate as 11.30pm our time AEST tonight… expecting a Good Good Friday read

  11. Renters have become the targets of a new property industry ad campaign described by experts as “cheeky” negative gearing scare tactics.

    The Real Estate Institute of Australia has joined forces with the Property Investors Council of Australia to wage war, via a series of online videos, on Labor’s proposed changes to negative gearing before the election.

    As part of an ongoing campaign, the two industry lobby groups this week posted a video targeting tenants on social media alleging that the changes will result in increased rents, lower vacancy rates and higher unemployment.

    But the Grattan Institute’s Danielle Wood has hit back at the video, saying the independent think tank’s in-house modelling shows the impact on tenants will be minuscule.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/property/2019/04/17/negative-gearing-campaign-reia/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020190418

  12. This guy has to get the Arsehole of the Day award:

    A lawyer described by a tribunal as “arrogant, supercilious and obtuse” has had his credit industry disqualification extended for creating a “sham” diamonds trade to evade consumer credit laws and sell payday-style loans.

    …“Mr Legat did not respect the law and the institutions that administer it. He presented as a recalcitrant who thinks he knows better. That finding does not bode well for an individual seeking to overturn a banning order … he has persisted in an increasingly shambolic defence of the indefensible in these proceedings.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/arrogant-and-supercilious-court-extends-lawyer-s-ban-over-diamond-trade-20190417-p51ex3.html

    A future LNP candidate?

  13. TBC
    Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s election campaign continues in Tasmania before flying to Sydney.

    09:00 AM
    Opposition Leader Bill Shorten will make a health funding announcement in Darwin before flying to the Tiwi Islands.

  14. Goll,
    In the nsw election, Daley played the role of Morrison in the federal one – leader for five minutes of a Party widely perceived as not up to governing.

    Yet he was neck and neck up until his disastrous last week, when labor really should never have had a chance of winning that election.

    The anti-coalition sentiment is there, believe me.

  15. 09:00 AM
    Opposition Leader Bill Shorten will make a health funding announcement in Darwin before flying to the Tiwi Islands.

    I just hope he doesn’t get on a Patrol Boat! 😆

  16. Funny, not funny. 😆

    @themarkjacka
    13h13 hours ago

    Let me guess….
    “In about 5 weeks time, after the Election, @SharriMarkson will write a scoop about @AngusTaylorMP’s & @Barnaby_Joyce’s water buyback corruption & will win another Walkley.”

  17. A note for people who post links……..

    Sometimes I go to interesting stories from a link in an email. The email link contains additional info so the news site can tell how you got there.
    In the link below, everything including and after the ‘?’ contains that info.

    https://theconversation.com/new-research-reveals-how-young-australians-will-decide-who-gets-their-vote-114599?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20for%20April%2018%202019%20-%201288011980&utm_content=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20for%20April%2018%202019%20-%201288011980+CID_2727995707489a2cb39411d02be8bef2&utm_source=campaign_monitor&utm_term=New%20research%20reveals%20how%20young%20Australians%20will%20decide%20who%20gets%20their%20vote

    I can delete that stuff and still have a functional link that looks like this:

    https://theconversation.com/new-research-reveals-how-young-australians-will-decide-who-gets-their-vote-114599

    It makes for a cleaner link.
    This also helps preserve a little privacy about my habits.

  18. WRAP UP: Bill Shorten’s first week of campaigning looked like this:

    Deakin, VIC
    Reid, NSW x 3
    Bennelong, NSW
    Robertson, NSW
    La Trobe, VIC
    Gellibrand, VIC
    Boothby, SA
    Swan, WA
    Hasluck, WA
    Cowan, WA

    @9NewsAUS #AusVotes19 

  19. I have no source for this yet but it sounds plausible.

    Christine Milne @ChristineMilne
    3m3 minutes ago

    Locals in coal town Clermont refuse to serve anti Adani protesters in pubs and cafes as Qld Govt announces another coal mine @ExtinctionR

  20. “WRAP UP: Bill Shorten’s first week of campaigning looked like this:

    Deakin, VIC
    Reid, NSW x 3
    Bennelong, NSW
    Robertson, NSW
    La Trobe, VIC
    Gellibrand, VIC
    Boothby, SA
    Swan, WA
    Hasluck, WA
    Cowan, WA

    @9NewsAUS #AusVotes19 ”

    Add in where Morrison spent his week – alternating between sandbagging 7% margin seats and chasing unicorns in Tasmania. Tells you everything you need to know where the respective party’s internal tracking has this election: on the verge of a Labor landslide.

  21. Interesting times in Chisholm

    Since the story broke re Liberal candidate Gladys Liu comments she has all but disappeared off the campaign trail acc to a friend who lives in the area.

    I’m wondering whether the Liberals might consider a last minute replacement.


  22. Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, April 18, 2019 at 7:36 am

    Di Natalie declares the Greens have learnt nothing at all.

    Wife was expressing the same view to me this morning.

  23. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Shane Wright reports that Labor has decided to sacrifice further tax cuts for more than 1.5 million workers in favour of promising bigger budget surpluses than the Coalition, in a fresh bid to win a crucial pre-election contest over economic management.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/labor-opts-against-last-minute-tax-relief-for-average-full-time-workers-in-bid-to-boost-budget-credentials-20190417-p51f30.html
    State and territory Labor Treasurers have demanded that Josh Frydenberg guarantee no cuts to essential services in order to fund tax cuts, after analysis found $40 billion in annual cuts would be needed.
    https://www.outline.com/buthyy
    Michelle Grattan tells how once again, the public servants are trying to force the politicians to do things by the book. But the government would prefer to cut the inconvenient corner.
    https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-those-tax-cuts-should-follow-proper-process-officials-tell-government-115665
    An unhappy Jess Irvine says that the tax stoush is no substitute for real reform.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tax-stoush-no-substitute-for-real-reform-20190417-p51f43.html
    Michael Pascoe says the latest Reserve Bank board minutes represent another step in the central bank’s march towards again cutting interest rates – an event that would mean the Australian economy is in trouble, whatever Scott Morrison says about six years of Coalition management.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2019/04/17/reserve-bank-iron-economy-trouble/
    Paul Karp writes that high-income earners will receive at least $77bn from the Coalition’s 10-year income tax package, shrinking the proportion of the overall tax burden shouldered by the rich, according to a new analysis.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/18/high-income-earners-would-receive-77bn-in-tax-cuts-under-liberal-plan
    And he looks at the claim that the Coalition is going to have to make $40b of spending cuts over the 10 year forecast period.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/18/explainer-is-the-coalition-planning-40bn-of-secret-spending-cuts
    Jericho’s article supports his assertion that we really don’t know just how bad the level of wealth inequality in this county is.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/apr/18/we-really-dont-know-just-how-bad-the-level-of-wealth-inequality-in-this-county-is
    The AFR says that underlying the election battle between Labor and the Coalition over taxes and climate change is an intergenerational fight over income, wealth and the future.
    https://www.outline.com/4AKWfx
    Phil Coorey reckons that Labor is suddenly looking exposed.
    https://www.outline.com/EhaeR5
    According to David Wroe the heat is on Manilla George.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/member-for-manila-mp-puts-overseas-travel-before-key-campaign-slogan-20190417-p51f59.html
    Moody’s predicts that Banks will be pushed to compete more fiercely for home loan customers from early next year due to a new data-sharing regime that will come into force.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/home-loan-competition-to-heat-up-with-open-banking-moody-s-20190417-p51f1f.html
    David Crowe says that Bill Shorten is counting on a surge in spending on international carbon permits to meet an election pledge to grow the economy by 23 per cent under his climate change policy, sparking new attacks from the Coalition and the Greens over the scheme.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/like-paying-someone-else-to-go-on-a-diet-labor-s-carbon-permit-policy-attacked-from-both-sides-20190417-p51f62.html
    Meanwhile leading company directors have expressed widespread concern over energy and climate change policy, and have warned the lack of clear direction is affecting investment and affordability.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/company-directors-urge-very-clear-action-on-climate-energy-policies-20190416-p51ero.html
    Richard Dennis opines that Liberal governments use tax cuts for high-income earners to hide the simple truth that they love taxes – just not on their friends.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/17/politicians-are-like-magicians-tricking-us-into-looking-at-the-wrong-things
    Michael Koziol tells us how Morrison tells us he is perfect.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/people-often-doubt-me-and-i-prove-them-wrong-scott-morrison-20190417-p51f3j.html
    Here’s a taste of the what The Australian is going to give us until the election.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/
    The Age’s editorial says that we can’t afford to be complacent about gun laws.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/we-can-t-afford-to-be-complacent-about-gun-laws-20190416-p51ert.html
    Industry sources say the big supermarket chains are threatening to cut off suppliers who are seeking price rises to cover costs. Is war about to break out?
    https://www.outline.com/g3j5Ae
    Tony Walker writes that Melissa Parke’s decision to step aside over her comments about Israel makes one query the boundary between acceptable criticism and alleged prejudice.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/melissa-parke-incident-raises-difficult-questions-about-israel-20190417-p51f1y.html
    Jacqui Maley reports that the conservative lobby group Advance Australia has made a complaint to Queensland police about a reported death threat made to its “satirical superhero” Captain GetUp.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/conservative-lobby-group-makes-police-complaint-of-death-threat-against-unmasked-captain-getup-20190417-p51f2p.html
    Tim Storer is bowing out of politics. It’s a pity as he behaved like a senator should.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/what-this-means-for-my-young-family-senator-tim-storer-quits-20190417-p51f73.html
    David Crowe reports that Labor is exposed to a Senate veto of its $30 billion plan to raise tax revenue from superannuation, as experts warn against another round of “tinkering” with the system. A Labor government would struggle to secure the votes needed from Centre Alliance, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and other crossbenchers to pass the tougher rules, after the groups expressed scepticism or hostility to the changes.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/senate-veto-threatens-labor-s-30-billion-super-changes-20190417-p51f5n.html
    David Crowe writes that Jim Molan has gone rogue in his bid to remain a senator for NSW.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6076388/jim-molan-goes-rogue-in-nsw-bid/?cs=14350
    The truth about expired food – how best-before dates create a waste mountain.
    https://www.theguardian.com/food/2019/apr/17/the-truth-about-expired-food-how-best-before-dates-create-a-waste-mountain
    A new study has found that family violence is often poorly understood in faith communities.
    https://theconversation.com/new-study-finds-family-violence-is-often-poorly-understood-in-faith-communities-115562
    This guy eminently qualifies for nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/arrogant-and-supercilious-court-extends-lawyer-s-ban-over-diamond-trade-20190417-p51ex3.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe and Shorten’s gaffe.

    Cathy Wilcox and Israel Falau.

    David Pope has some concerns about the Coalitions 10 year plan.

    From Matt Golding.





    Matt Davison gets it right.

    And Zanetti’s bile is really flowing this week!
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D4YZcDPU4AAdrp8,jpg
    Nice work from Glen Le Lievre.

    Sean Leahy takes us on the election trail.

    Jon Kudelka in the carrot field with Morrison.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/427f15959f4b81ee3acda8dbcec78f66?width=1024

    From the US






  24. Thanks BK. From the AFR editorial:

    The Baby Boomers have been the most tax-subsidised and economically blessed generation in Australia’s history.

    This election is so important because it offers a once in a lifetime opportunity to redress that imbalance.

  25. Morning all. Thanks BK. I never realise how badly Shorten is going until I read the Murdoch press articles. It is always worse than it looks. Bill forgetting a detail of one Labor policy is a disaster. ScumMo having an unexplained $40 billion per annum hole in the national budget is the question that he is never asked. Over ten years that would double our debt.

    Last night around 7pm I got robo-polled via my mobile number for Sturt. I was asked which candidate I preferred, whether my support was strong or weak, my key issue, PPM and age group. No idea who commissioned it.

  26. frednk: “Well there you are; if you earn less than 90,000 dollars a year your below average. Pretty much the entire middle class. Where does the press come up with this shit?”

    You need to have quite a lot of income to belong to the middle class these days. At a time of historically low unemployment, the average annual full-time income is well into the $80,000s and the median is pushing $80k. In the mining sector, the average annual income is well over $100k.

    The average Australian is far better off than all the carry on in the media about depressed wages and poverty and income inequality would have you think. There certainly are some disadvantaged people, but there are few better lifestyles available in the world than that of an Australian household where both partners are employed full-time.

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