Latest electorate-level campaign news updates for the Poll Bludger election guide:
• The Australian reports a uComms/ReachTEL poll for the Australian Forest Products Association gives the Liberals a surprise 54-46 lead in Bass, the north-eastern Tasmanian seat that has changed hands at seven of the last nine elections, most recently in favour of Labor incumbent Ross Hart in 2016. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 42.8%, Labor 32.6% and Greens 10%, though I would guess the balance includes an undecided component of around 6% that hasn’t been distributed. The two-party result suggests a much more favourable flow of preferences to the Liberals than in 2016, when Labor received fully 89.2% of Greens preferences as well as about 55% from the other two candidates. That would have converted the primary votes in the poll to a two-party total more like 51-49. The poll was conducted on Monday night from a sample of 847.
• Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports Labor is “distributing postal vote application forms across the blue-ribbon Liberal seats of Goldstein and Higgins for the first time ever”. As for the Liberals’ assessment of the situation in Victoria, you can take your pick between reports yesterday from The Australian and the Daily Telegraph. The former spoke of the Liberals “becoming less pessimistic about a wipeout”, with optimists speaking of the loss of two to four seats. But according to the latter, “the Coalition fears its losses will be worse than it expected before the campaign began”, to the extent of being “seriously concerned about the loss of up to eight seats”.
• The Melbourne seat of Chisholm has been much in the news over the past few days, partly on account of Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s overreach as she sought to bat off a question about her views on gender identity and same-sex marriage. Liu helped organise anti-Labor activity on popular Chinese language social media service WeChat at the 2016 election, much of it relating to the Safe Schools program, as she discussed at the time with Doug Hendrie of The Guardian. Confronted over her comments to Hendrie, Liu appeared to claim his report was “fake news”, and that she had been pointing to views that existed within the Chinese community rather than associating with them herself. However, Hendrie provided the ABC with a recording that showed Liu had been less careful on this point than she remembered. Thomas O’Brien of Sky News reported yesterday that a planned interview with Liu as part of its electorate profile had been cancelled by party headquarters, following earlier efforts to insist she not be questioned about the matter.
• Gladys Liu’s comments on Sunday were made at an Australian-first candidates’ debate conducted in Mandarin, the first language of Labor’s Taiwanese-born candidate Jennifer Yang, but only a third language of Liberal candidate Gladys Liu, who identifies her first languages as English and Cantonese. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian quoted a Labor strategist saying they expected Liu “use Ms Yang’s Taiwanese heritage against her with mainland Chinese voters”, but also indicates that Labor has a better handle on the importance of WeChat than it did in 2016. The service was also much discussed during the New South Wales state election campaign, with respect to the controversy generated by Labor leader Michael Daley’s statements of concern about the impact of Asian immigration on the employment and housing markets.
• Leaning heavily on the passive voice, a report in The Australian today says it is “understood” Labor polling shows it is unlikely to gain the regional Queensland seats of Capricornia, Flynn and Dawson, in addition to facing a “growing threat” in its own seat of Herbert. However, Labor is said to be encouraged by its polling in the Brisbane seats of Petrie, Bonner and Forde, and believes itself to be in the hunt in Brisbane and Dickson.
He did. To anyone who’s had trouble with the state breakdown tabs in BludgerTrack — try it now.
Why are people so intent on trying to rewrite history from their own perspective.
Is over. Finished. Done.
Forensic examination achieves nothing but annoyance on all sides – it certainly will not change the outcome.
Guytaur
“Beware of people calling themselves Centrists.”
As a centrist, I object! 🙂
In fact on the ABC’s vote compass I came out half way between the Greens and Labor. I support Labor, am pleased that they have brought out a genuine alternative economic and social policy reform platform before the election. Climate change is part of that, but not the only issue. You can hardly blame Labor for seeking to win enough seats to govern in their own right. That is the nature of politics.
I do not hate the Greens, and would be happy with either a Labor or Labor – Greens government. Some principled independents like Wilkie or Windsor would also be welcome IMO. However for those who really believe that climate change is the most important and pressing issue, it is essential that the Coalition is defeated, and climate change action likely to be accepted by the community is passed swiftly. We cannot afford another decade debating purist solutions. Start with something practical, then when the community has accepted that, move on to more advanced measures in future years.
So call me a pragmatist rather than a centrist. I watched the movie Lincoln recently. The arm twisting and deals he had to undertake to get laws as basic as the abolition of slavery passed through Congress were shocking. He did the deals and got the problem fixed. Even for that, he paid with his life. All the zealots should watch that movie, campaign against the man who carried a lump of coal into parliament (it wasn’t Bill Shorten), then if successful, sit down like adults afterwards and agree to a deal.
lizzie: “I’ve just changed my mind. I’ll vote for a man who wears a suit and tie in a field of carrots. Irresistible.”
Similarly, King George III was known as Farmer George due to his fondness for pretend farming; see here for his attire
Socrates
Well said. The tail threatening to wag the dog tends to upset the dog.
Jen
Yes.
That’s why I continually refer to what did actually happen. Not what if the Greens did this then maybe that would have happened
We know good climate policy was passed.
We know the hard right won by lying their way into office.
We know that has split the right irrevocably
We know this is a change election as big as Whitlam winning.
The hard right has wasted uts time in Office.
They have delayed not stopped where our country is heading.
Unless the LNP win the election.
With Labor writing the legislation the choices in the Senate are going to be very different.
For starters evidence and facts will be acted on. Not covered up and opposed.
That’s a huge change right there.
This is awesome!
Imagine if Foxnews covered Trump like they did Obama.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1118327466660024320
Thanks, will correct shortly. Electorate names with spaces, hyphens and apostrophes are the bane of my existence.
Socrates.
I have not seen you claim a centrist position 🙂
That’s the point really. Real pragmatists don’t say the Greens must do what we say or they are bullying us. Which is real Centrists as Gillard displayed.
Rob says:
Wednesday, April 17, 2019 at 1:53 pm
If Labor does defeat the Coalition next month and forms our next Australian government, I would hope, for all our sakes that Bill Shorten will work with the Greens …
Why would Labor want to ‘work with the Greens’? All the Greens have ever done is campaign to prevent the election of a Labor Government. The Gs want to have their cake and eat it with regards to Labor. The Gs claim to be progressive. They should prove it.
If you’re an Australian in Canada and want to vote in the forthcoming election, you go to the Australian Electoral Commission website and you are directed to this link:
https://canada.embassy.gov.au/
Isn’t that nice of DFAT to have a lovely picture of Scomo and Justin, but no information on that page about how you vote.
After considerable diligent searching you can find it in one of the drop-down menus: voting at the Australian High Commission in Ottawa and at Australian consulates in Vancouver and Toronto.
But that’s better than the Wentworth by-election when the AEC claim to have sent a postal vote which never arrived. For some reason, voting at the Australian High Commission was not available for the by-election.
That is indeed an issue, which the pollster should deal with by mixing the order around.
Guytaur
Yes I think Gillard was an effective pragmatist. If Shorten and the Greens can work together ion the same way after this election then that will be great. But pragmatism is a two way street. If the Greens want Labor to extend any of their climate change policy further, then the Greens also need to think about what of the tax reforms Labor has proposed that they would be prepared to support in return. Given the stagnation of real wages in recent years, some tax cuts for middle income earners, with reform of rorts like franking and negative gearing for the wealthy, are urgently needed.
That being said, I agree with the Greens that Newstart allowances need to be increased urgently.
George Christensen criticising misuse of travel allowances while on holiday in The Phillipines.
Psyclaw @ #231 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 11:33 am
Yep!
Not many blacksmiths, farriers, wheelwrights, buggy whip makers etc around these days.
lizzie says:
Wednesday, April 17, 2019 at 3:00 pm
That would be a fun interview to watch. 🙂
Scott Morrison will not answer any question that he doesn’t want to, especially one posed by the leader of the ACTU.
Get real, Sally!
How many media outlets will not even mention this demand from the IPA?
Socrates
The. Greens won’t have too much choice.
The polls are telling us Labor will have a majority not a minority in the HOR.
I am not citing seat polling for this.
So it will be crystal clear it’s Labor’s legislation with whatever compromise Labor comes to get legislation passed as they want. In minority Labor had to do more compromise before the legislation went to the Senate.
So we won’t have the right being able to credibly claim its the Greens legislation completely ignoring those conservative Independents input.
On PEFO:
Jim Chalmers MP
@JEChalmers
BREAKING: #PEFO confirms downgrades to growth, wages and consumption. The economy under the Liberals is not working for ordinary working people
BREAKING: #PEFO confirms the Liberals’ secret cuts to schools and hospitals to fund their tax handouts to the top end of town
BREAKING: #PEFO confirms net debt has more than doubled after six years of the Liberals’ cuts and chaos
BREAKING: #PEFO confirms the Liberals’ forecast surplus next year is propped up by a $1.6 billion underspend on Australians with a disability
Greg Jericho having a chuckle at Treasury’s projection that wages will rise from 2.1% to 3.5% in 2022-23.
Greg Jericho
@GrogsGamut
Well the PEFO is out. lulz
Watched Mr Morrison’s truncated presser following the PEFO release. Could be just me, but I thought he looked rattled. He cut and run pretty quick.
Guytaur – god luv ya – what I said was a signal that many are tired of hearing the ‘truth’ according to each side. It was not a signal to repeat what has been said 100s of times.
I try to look forward. Not back. (Unless it is the study of ancient history, of course, and in that I try to find evidence, not opinion).
Yesterday can only be relived in an alternate reality
If Labor loses seats like Herbert, Lindsay, Bass and Braddon, it may well depend on support from the Greens.
Seems the Libs are in conflict with the ATO about whether proposed Tax cuts for low and middle income earners need to be legislated prior to implementation.
The LNP don’t seem to understand the law.
Frydenberg said he will speak again after PEFO is out.
I bet he’s deep into discussions with spin doctors.
‘We are yet to see how effectively Di Natale and Shorten can work together and negotiate.’
Di Natale and Shorten negotiated a deal early in the life of the Abbott government. di Natale then ratted on the deal. Labor, as a result, has been very reluctant to deal with di Natale.
Jim Chalmers MP
@JEChalmers
Page 11 of #PEFO reproduces the graph which confirms cuts of $40b a year by end of the period – Libs can’t fund their tax cuts without big cuts to spending
jenauthor @ #422 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 3:24 pm
I’m amused that a writer in the historical fiction genre can be opposed to historical precedents in real life.
I am interested in historical precedents … just not ‘opinion’ about history … and especially not the continual re-prosecution of arguments that cannot be substantiated.
It’s like kids squabbling in the back seat over who kicked who. Some days it drives me nuts!
“If Labor loses seats like Herbert, Lindsay, Bass and Braddon, it may well depend on support from the Greens.”
Labor only needs to depend on support of the Greens if it misses out by exactly one seat to attain a majority. They still need to achieve a net gain to get to that point.
If Labor loses the aforementioned seats (likely), they will probably lose the election outright. It will be a repudiation of all conventional forecasts and Australia’s very own Trump moment.
jenauthor says:
Wednesday, April 17, 2019 at 1:36 pm
Michael A. – I hope you don’t mind but I just tweeted your Coles 4c petrol discount analogy – it is one everyday people would understand.
—————————————
Don’t mind in the least!
BTW GG – I recognise that my work IS fiction. I do not claim fact in what I write
Jen.
I did not talk about alternative realities except to dismiss some put up.
The Gillard Government passing Climate Legislation with Green and Conservative Independent votes was the reality.
That Abbott then won an election by lying is also reality.
Don’t take my word or perception for that. Take that of Peta Credlin That’s just saying the history not rewriting it.
zoomster @ #426 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 3:27 pm
Labor wanted a debt ceiling of $400B, the Greens rightly opted for a more sensible and transparent approach.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-04/government-strikes-deal-with-greens-to-scrap-debt-ceiling/5134972
Good luck with that!
Yeah.
The nork on ABC local morning radio, the one who considers himself a hard talker balanced journo, the one who invited the Lib insider on this morning for a friendly chat and to mislead his viewers about their internal polling….
well the nork was talking to a BOM chap yesterday about the heat and qualified it all with wtte ‘well, it was hot this time last year so it isnt unusual’.
Oh my happy aunt.
zoomster says:
Wednesday, April 17, 2019 at 3:27 pm
To me Bandt seems to be a better negotiator, he was more calm and rational during the medical transfer negotiations and seemed to work well during Gillard’s reign.
jenauthor @ #432 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 3:33 pm
I did recognise that in my comment. I just found it an interesting conceptual juxtoposition. But, that’s just me!
The deluge of fakenews has started, including Warnies comments about immigration. Fakebook aren’t even going to stop republishing news feeds they know are false but they will recirculate them less.
GreenLaborShit is boring and pointless and interesting only to tribal warriors. There are much more important things happening.
lizzie @ #3463 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 3:39 pm
Randroids are drones. The IPA is a hive. Burn it.
Nostradamus
Labor just have to get the same vote it got last election to win. If it gets any swing at all, it will pick up enough seats to win comfortably. If it gets the swing projected on Bludgertrack, it will romp it in.
Yes, it will probably lose seats along the way, as happens in most elections. In most elections, however, the outgoing party has surprise losses as well (look at Victoria).
Last federal election, the polls on the day the election was announced basically reflected the outcome on the day. Given the circumstances of this election, held over a period where voters will be thinking even less about politics than they normally do, it seems probable we’re heading for much the same scenario.
“GreenLaborShit is boring and pointless and interesting only to tribal warriors”
Hear hear. Come on guys, please!
Rex
The issue is irrelevant to the point I was making. di Natale had a deal with Labor and the crossbenchers. He did not even do them the courtesy of offering to renegotiate it.
This is why he’s not trusted.
You might think that that’s unreasonable or wrong, but it’s simply a fact – di Natale ratted on a deal, and as a result he is not seen (rightly, wrongly, whatever) as someone whose word can be relied on.
One thing I honestly look forward to after Trump is gone from office (whenever that is) is this asinine commentary of Trump being an invincible genius, whose amazing political acumen is going to be repeatedly emulated across the globe in other elections, finally dying off once and for all.
One would hope Labor do better in the Queensland marginals than suggested here. But I think we need to be careful not to get too caught up in chatter about individual seats or even areas. Our most recent national poll has Labor on a primary vote of 39 percent, a headline figure of 52-48 and in reality probably closer to 53-47. Anything close to that on election day and Antony Green will be calling it for Labor pretty early. It’s easy to get jittery but at the moment I don’t see any reason for panic.
I think that as much as it may excite some people on this sub, if Labor fails to pass any legislation by virtue of being too busy having a pissing match with Greens, then the Libs will be back in government sooner than you think, because swinging voters are unlikely to care for pissing matches – their lack of unconditional loyalty to a party is implied by the word ‘swinging’.
zoomster
As seen rightly or wrongly by Labor people.
Then it’s 100% accurate because obviously Greens people don’t seem to agree.
guytaur
I’m explaining why Labor doesn’t trust di Natale. Full stop.
Barney in Mui Ne @ #274 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 12:18 pm
And have it conducted by non-lawyers!