Campaign updates: Bass, Chisholm et al.

A private poll turns up a surprisingly strong result for the Liberals in the Labor-held Tasmanian state of Bass, while a Liberal candidate stumbles in a key Melbourne marginal seat.

Latest electorate-level campaign news updates for the Poll Bludger election guide:

• The Australian reports a uComms/ReachTEL poll for the Australian Forest Products Association gives the Liberals a surprise 54-46 lead in Bass, the north-eastern Tasmanian seat that has changed hands at seven of the last nine elections, most recently in favour of Labor incumbent Ross Hart in 2016. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 42.8%, Labor 32.6% and Greens 10%, though I would guess the balance includes an undecided component of around 6% that hasn’t been distributed. The two-party result suggests a much more favourable flow of preferences to the Liberals than in 2016, when Labor received fully 89.2% of Greens preferences as well as about 55% from the other two candidates. That would have converted the primary votes in the poll to a two-party total more like 51-49. The poll was conducted on Monday night from a sample of 847.

• Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports Labor is “distributing postal vote application forms across the blue-ribbon Liberal seats of Goldstein and Higgins for the first time ever”. As for the Liberals’ assessment of the situation in Victoria, you can take your pick between reports yesterday from The Australian and the Daily Telegraph. The former spoke of the Liberals “becoming less pessimistic about a wipeout”, with optimists speaking of the loss of two to four seats. But according to the latter, “the Coalition fears its losses will be worse than it expected before the campaign began”, to the extent of being “seriously concerned about the loss of up to eight seats”.

• The Melbourne seat of Chisholm has been much in the news over the past few days, partly on account of Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s overreach as she sought to bat off a question about her views on gender identity and same-sex marriage. Liu helped organise anti-Labor activity on popular Chinese language social media service WeChat at the 2016 election, much of it relating to the Safe Schools program, as she discussed at the time with Doug Hendrie of The Guardian. Confronted over her comments to Hendrie, Liu appeared to claim his report was “fake news”, and that she had been pointing to views that existed within the Chinese community rather than associating with them herself. However, Hendrie provided the ABC with a recording that showed Liu had been less careful on this point than she remembered. Thomas O’Brien of Sky News reported yesterday that a planned interview with Liu as part of its electorate profile had been cancelled by party headquarters, following earlier efforts to insist she not be questioned about the matter.

• Gladys Liu’s comments on Sunday were made at an Australian-first candidates’ debate conducted in Mandarin, the first language of Labor’s Taiwanese-born candidate Jennifer Yang, but only a third language of Liberal candidate Gladys Liu, who identifies her first languages as English and Cantonese. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian quoted a Labor strategist saying they expected Liu “use Ms Yang’s Taiwanese heritage against her with mainland Chinese voters”, but also indicates that Labor has a better handle on the importance of WeChat than it did in 2016. The service was also much discussed during the New South Wales state election campaign, with respect to the controversy generated by Labor leader Michael Daley’s statements of concern about the impact of Asian immigration on the employment and housing markets.

• Leaning heavily on the passive voice, a report in The Australian today says it is “understood” Labor polling shows it is unlikely to gain the regional Queensland seats of Capricornia, Flynn and Dawson, in addition to facing a “growing threat” in its own seat of Herbert. However, Labor is said to be encouraged by its polling in the Brisbane seats of Petrie, Bonner and Forde, and believes itself to be in the hunt in Brisbane and Dickson.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

857 comments on “Campaign updates: Bass, Chisholm et al.”

Comments Page 7 of 18
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  1. 1934pc @ #296 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 12:42 pm

    Rex
    I think it’s socially irresponsible to wave away the starving and destitute trying to survive on Newstart.

    Still unemployed are we Rex!.
    I wonder why you are here ALL day every day!.

    I’m lucky enough to be financially comfortable, 1934pc.

    That doesn’t mean I can’t call out the major parties for their social irresponsibility.

  2. What sort of government or parliament would be wasting its precious time with an elaborate provision like this to be added to the Electoral Act? Amazed it got through the Senate.

    The HC says it is invalid.

    http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/cea1918233/s302ca.html

    Very rare for States to knock over Cth legislation in HC.

    Kudos to the great State of Queensland and the legal team of baby boomers who achieved this victory.

  3. If Colesworth stopped giving out 4c/L discounts on fuel to customers who had spent $30 or more in their supermarkets, would it be right to say they had “increased petrol prices”? Of course not.

    Similarly with Labor no longer giving out gifts dressed up as “tax credits” to those fortunate enough to be shareholders, or deductions for people fortunate enough to have investment properties they can incur losses on. They are not “tax increases”.

  5. Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, April 17, 2019 at 12:34 pm

    C@tmomma @ #282 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 12:31 pm

    And can the ABC stop calling modifications proposed by Labor to the Superannuation system, ‘Tax increases’!?!

    In 2016 it was $18.9B added to the budget bottom line – now it’s $30B. That would be an increase.

    I’m not saying that’s a bad thing by the way.

    So, in Rexonomics the mining boom was a tax increase and the GFC was a tax cut?

  6. lizzie @ #299 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 12:44 pm

    Jim Molan pulling out all the stops to try to retain his Senate seat. Senator Molan has been a significant player on parliamentary committees including the Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security, which has scrutinised counter-terrorism, foreign interference and encryption legislation.

    He is totally the best on security because “I ran the war in Iraq for a year.”

    https://www.theage.com.au/federal-election-2019/jim-molan-goes-rogue-the-nsw-senator-mounting-a-conservative-insurgency-to-keep-his-seat-20190416-p51era.html

    The old warmonger should retire to the village.

  8. Does anyone really think – in regard to Ita and the ABC – that she takes the slightest interest in most of the stuff the ABC pumps out? I mean, seriously, the use of “tax increases” in lieu of “modifications” is hardly the detail anyone other than PB’ers would notice. At her age, I suspect Ita gets into the office at around 10 am and it likely gone by 4 pm. Whether some like it or not, she has a lot of credibility with the Oz public and I doubt whether Morrison talks to her on the phone and/or tells her what to say or do.
    That she is probably politically conservative would be no surprise.
    I suspect the uses of poor English at the ABC is down to the generally mediocre bunch who work in the place at the moment………….then again, the ABC is actually better than the low-level dross pumped out by commercial channels.

  10. A lot of Boomers go to Qld to die. It’s almost like a migration.

    And let’s face it, there isn’t much else to do up there in Redneck Wonderland.

  12. Chris Bowen Twitter:

    Here’s a video showing the Liberal Party website link to their “plan” not working. But congratulations on the whole four policies you’ve managed to get on your website #Hypocrites

  13. I’ve been having close look at some of Labor’s candidates in seats that they are looking to pick up.
    There are some people of real quality standing for the ALP. WA Police superintendent Kim Travers (Pearce vs Christian Porter) is a standout. Ditto Ali France (Dickson vs Mr Potato Head).
    Kudos to Labor.

  14. The uglier the better.

    Rugby Australia has screwed Western Australian Rugby and has turned the Wallabies into a laughing stock.

    May they suffer in their gothic jocks.

  15. A panel of government-appointed experts has uncovered “integrity issues” with the Coalition’s flagship climate change policy, triggering a warning that some of the emission reductions claimed by Australia may not be genuine.

    The findings relate to the Abbott-era Emissions Reduction Fund, established in 2014 to replace Labor’s so-called “carbon tax”. The Morrison government extended the fund in February with a $2 billion injection of taxpayer funds, and renamed it the Climate Solutions Fund.
    …
    An official panel of experts has identified “integrity issues” with two revegetation methods under the fund. Among the committee’s findings are that some projects may have received credits for carbon sequestration that has not yet occurred and may never occur – for example, because the land is not capable of growing forest cover.

    In one sample cited in the panel’s report, almost half the projects had not achieved the required vegetation seven years after they commenced.

    The findings pose a concern because half the 193 million tonnes of emissions cuts claimed by the Coalition government under the fund relate to projects using one of the methods under a cloud.

    This comes as no surprise.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/experts-find-integrity-issues-with-coalition-s-direct-action-policy-20190416-p51eoj.html

  16. Shellbell says

    …

    Kudos to the great State of Queensland and the legal team of baby boomers who achieved this victory.

    😆
    Surely they had some younger assistance? 🙂

  18. lizzie @ #314 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 12:58 pm

    A panel of government-appointed experts has uncovered “integrity issues” with the Coalition’s flagship climate change policy, triggering a warning that some of the emission reductions claimed by Australia may not be genuine.

    The findings relate to the Abbott-era Emissions Reduction Fund, established in 2014 to replace Labor’s so-called “carbon tax”. The Morrison government extended the fund in February with a $2 billion injection of taxpayer funds, and renamed it the Climate Solutions Fund.
    …
    An official panel of experts has identified “integrity issues” with two revegetation methods under the fund. Among the committee’s findings are that some projects may have received credits for carbon sequestration that has not yet occurred and may never occur – for example, because the land is not capable of growing forest cover.

    In one sample cited in the panel’s report, almost half the projects had not achieved the required vegetation seven years after they commenced.

    The findings pose a concern because half the 193 million tonnes of emissions cuts claimed by the Coalition government under the fund relate to projects using one of the methods under a cloud.

    This comes as no surprise.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/experts-find-integrity-issues-with-coalition-s-direct-action-policy-20190416-p51eoj.html

    The Govt will arrogantly reject the findings… and that’s why they’ll get thumped at the election.

  19. Fulvio,

    Rugby in Australia has always been a joke. It’s just we had about 12 years of seriousness from the early 1990s which gave its misguided 17 supporters across the country false hope. We’ve just returned to type since.

    Any sport in Australia which draws 90% of its players from private schoolkids who were carried to games in sedan chairs will always fail when it’s up against countries like NZ who actually draw their players from the ranks of real people whose idea of physicality is more than losing a toe nail.

  20. @C@tmomma

    I follow the opinion polls, rather than the bookies and right now Labor is polling about 52-53% of the two party preferred vote.

  21. Signs you're under pressure? Gladys Liu yesterday booked to do IV today with @SkyNewsAust @pamurrell as part of Chisholm feature – also IVing Jennifer Yang. After a few calls this AM to 'restrict' Sky from asking Qs on 2016 SSM comments, IV now cancelled by Lib HQ. #AusVotes2019— Thomas O'Brien (@TJ__OBrien) April 15, 2019

    Interview cancelled after Sky refused request to go softly and not ask any awkward questions. Great strategy guys. https://t.co/y8BxqTx38B— David Speers (@David_Speers) April 16, 2019

  23. I love the shelf checkouts at Coles. I’m forever confusing truss tomatoes for Romas, washed potatoes for scrubbed, white onions for brown etc. It’s great.

    An a polling note am surprised the bookies have Dave Sharma favourite in Wentworth.
    Perhaps a case of the massive tide that Phelps rode coming back in slightly (which is all it takes for snake to win it back I guess).

  24. Candidates in the federal election will not be able to take developer donations in states that ban the practice as the result of the high court’s orders this morning.

    iirc developer donations are not banned in Victoria. The Vic Greens party has been pushing for such a ban.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-08/taxpayers-to-foot-the-bill-for-election-campaigning-in-victoria/9739122

    Prahran MP Sam Hibbins said the Government’s changes might not go far enough, and should consider banning property developers and other vested interests from donating to political parties.

  27. “The Greens will push Labor to back key parts of its new environment strategy – including a $2bn nature fund – in exchange for crucial support of the opposition’s climate change policy in the Senate.

    Flagging the party’s readiness to negotiate over energy policy if Labor wins the election, the Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young said the party was not afraid to use its numbers on the crossbench to extract stronger commitments from Bill Shorten on the environment.”

    More: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/17/greens-propose-supporting-labor-climate-policy-in-environment-deal

    Good! Australia needs the Greens to ensure that Labor takes meaningful and serious action to protect the environment and tackle climate change. We’ll negotiate to make sure that we get the best outcome possible. A vote for the Greens is a vote for the environment.

  28. Just saw Morrison in a field leaning on a spade, holding a bunch of carrots and grinning.

    I’ve just changed my mind. I’ll vote for a man who wears a suit and tie in a field of carrots. Irresistible.
    😀

  29. Tricot @ #306 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 12:53 pm

    Does anyone really think – in regard to Ita and the ABC – that she takes the slightest interest in most of the stuff the ABC pumps out?

    Si. There’s a reason she’s there and the people who were actually recommended for the role aren’t, and it’s not because of her credibility with the public.

  30. Burgey @ #317 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 1:03 pm

    Fulvio,

    Rugby in Australia has always been a joke. It’s just we had about 12 years of seriousness from the early 1990s which gave its misguided 17 supporters across the country false hope. We’ve just returned to type since.

    Any sport in Australia which draws 90% of its players from private schoolkids who were carried to games in sedan chairs will always fail when it’s up against countries like NZ who actually draw their players from the ranks of real people whose idea of physicality is more than losing a toe nail.

    I forgot to add. Besides Queensland and Queenslanders his other great hate is Union. Fire Up Burgey!

  31. The Guardian

    A sharp eyed reader has just pointed out that Bill Shorten visited the same farm with Labor MP Justine Keay, where he also looked at dug up carrots, about a month ago.

  32. Michael A @ #300 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 12:47 pm

    If Colesworth stopped giving out 4c/L discounts on fuel to customers who had spent $30 or more in their supermarkets, would it be right to say they had “increased petrol prices”? Of course not.

    Similarly with Labor no longer giving out gifts dressed up as “tax credits” to those fortunate enough to be shareholders, or deductions for people fortunate enough to have investment properties they can incur losses on. They are not “tax increases”.

    This is a very cogent example.

  33. You know the Coalition are really worried when they start pulling their candidates out of interviews with the right wing propaganda channel Sky lol

  37. Fulvio Sammut says:
    Wednesday, April 17, 2019 at 1:12 pm

    I still have the sedan chair, but daddy can’t afford the bearers wages any more.

    Try this!

    The Kyaiktiyo Pagoda in Myanmar is at the top of a large hill which you need to walk up, but if you like, there are willing locals with sedan chairs to carry you.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyaiktiyo_Pagoda

  40. Firefox says:
    Wednesday, April 17, 2019 at 1:12 pm

    “The Greens will push Labor to back key parts of its new environment strategy – including a $2bn nature fund – in exchange for crucial support of the opposition’s climate change policy in the Senate.

    Flagging the party’s readiness to negotiate over energy policy if Labor wins the election, the Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young said the party was not afraid to use its numbers on the crossbench to extract stronger commitments from Bill Shorten on the environment.”

    More: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/17/greens-propose-supporting-labor-climate-policy-in-environment-deal

    Good! Australia needs the Greens to ensure that Labor takes meaningful and serious action to protect the environment and tackle climate change. We’ll negotiate to make sure that we get the best outcome possible. A vote for the Greens is a vote for the environment.

    Is that position negotiable?

  43. “Is that position negotiable?”

    I guess that’s up to both the Greens and Labor when they end up sitting down to negotiate. They can both put everything on the table and work out what they can agree on or
    what needs to be changed to reach an agreement.

  45. If, as some of you are alleging, “adjusting a threshold” (eg, in relation to the high income superannuation contributions tax) doesn’t count as a “tax increase”, then, ipso facto, neither Labor’s nor the Coalition’s tax changes can be accurately described as “tax cuts”.

    Just saying.

  46. Michael A. – I hope you don’t mind but I just tweeted your Coles 4c petrol discount analogy – it is one everyday people would understand.

  47. Frank Davies
    ‏@Frank__Davies
    13m13 minutes ago

    Well one thing you can mortgage your house on is that if Labor becomes the Govt of Australia on 18 May there will be a Royal Commission into the way water rights have been handled. Angus Taylor and Barnaby Joyce are going to need an army of lawyers for that.

  50. Why can’t the Greens just say that their senators and MPs will be negotiating hard to get the best environmental outcomes regardless of who wins the election. That will maximise their vote.

    The Greens can’t guarantee anything except their best efforts. When their vote is good then they can argue that there is strong public support for their policies. ,

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