Campaign updates: Bass, Chisholm et al.

A private poll turns up a surprisingly strong result for the Liberals in the Labor-held Tasmanian state of Bass, while a Liberal candidate stumbles in a key Melbourne marginal seat.

Latest electorate-level campaign news updates for the Poll Bludger election guide:

• The Australian reports a uComms/ReachTEL poll for the Australian Forest Products Association gives the Liberals a surprise 54-46 lead in Bass, the north-eastern Tasmanian seat that has changed hands at seven of the last nine elections, most recently in favour of Labor incumbent Ross Hart in 2016. The primary votes from the poll are Liberal 42.8%, Labor 32.6% and Greens 10%, though I would guess the balance includes an undecided component of around 6% that hasn’t been distributed. The two-party result suggests a much more favourable flow of preferences to the Liberals than in 2016, when Labor received fully 89.2% of Greens preferences as well as about 55% from the other two candidates. That would have converted the primary votes in the poll to a two-party total more like 51-49. The poll was conducted on Monday night from a sample of 847.

• Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports Labor is “distributing postal vote application forms across the blue-ribbon Liberal seats of Goldstein and Higgins for the first time ever”. As for the Liberals’ assessment of the situation in Victoria, you can take your pick between reports yesterday from The Australian and the Daily Telegraph. The former spoke of the Liberals “becoming less pessimistic about a wipeout”, with optimists speaking of the loss of two to four seats. But according to the latter, “the Coalition fears its losses will be worse than it expected before the campaign began”, to the extent of being “seriously concerned about the loss of up to eight seats”.

• The Melbourne seat of Chisholm has been much in the news over the past few days, partly on account of Liberal candidate Gladys Liu’s overreach as she sought to bat off a question about her views on gender identity and same-sex marriage. Liu helped organise anti-Labor activity on popular Chinese language social media service WeChat at the 2016 election, much of it relating to the Safe Schools program, as she discussed at the time with Doug Hendrie of The Guardian. Confronted over her comments to Hendrie, Liu appeared to claim his report was “fake news”, and that she had been pointing to views that existed within the Chinese community rather than associating with them herself. However, Hendrie provided the ABC with a recording that showed Liu had been less careful on this point than she remembered. Thomas O’Brien of Sky News reported yesterday that a planned interview with Liu as part of its electorate profile had been cancelled by party headquarters, following earlier efforts to insist she not be questioned about the matter.

• Gladys Liu’s comments on Sunday were made at an Australian-first candidates’ debate conducted in Mandarin, the first language of Labor’s Taiwanese-born candidate Jennifer Yang, but only a third language of Liberal candidate Gladys Liu, who identifies her first languages as English and Cantonese. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian quoted a Labor strategist saying they expected Liu “use Ms Yang’s Taiwanese heritage against her with mainland Chinese voters”, but also indicates that Labor has a better handle on the importance of WeChat than it did in 2016. The service was also much discussed during the New South Wales state election campaign, with respect to the controversy generated by Labor leader Michael Daley’s statements of concern about the impact of Asian immigration on the employment and housing markets.

• Leaning heavily on the passive voice, a report in The Australian today says it is “understood” Labor polling shows it is unlikely to gain the regional Queensland seats of Capricornia, Flynn and Dawson, in addition to facing a “growing threat” in its own seat of Herbert. However, Labor is said to be encouraged by its polling in the Brisbane seats of Petrie, Bonner and Forde, and believes itself to be in the hunt in Brisbane and Dickson.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

857 comments on “Campaign updates: Bass, Chisholm et al.”

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  1. “Are you a subscriber to the idea that if you cut taxes, you free the economy to grow and everyone benefits in the end?

    Or would you rather see higher tax rates and the proceeds spent on public services?

    That’s the choice. It’s the choice now, and it’ll shape your life in 10 years’ time.”

    She can be a bit of a lightweight, but this from Crabb is well true.

  2. Lizzie

    What a crock. Everyone knows people who make serious money organise their affairs, so they never pay any real taxes. This would occur under any govt. of course, unless we are talking about the franking credits, which will affect a small minority of already wealthy people in any event.

  3. lizzie

    The whole higher taxes scare is a con. Labor should say

    A) We are not doing higher taxes.
    B) If we were we would be using them to pay for government services like Medicare.

    See all the polling. Its very very clear. The majority of voters hate privatisation. They like taxes paying for government services. Its been very very clear in polling questions to voters for a long long time.

  4. Victoria @ #148 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 9:49 am

    GG

    The result of the state Vic election surprised everyone. I still can’t believe my kids old principal won the seat of Hawthorn from John Pessutto who was going to be next leader once Matt Guy was out of picture.

    My feeling though at present still remains that fed Labor will sneak over line. Not as comfortable as we would have liked. I am happy to be wrong about this.

    I think you are right. But, on the face of it, Victoria seems to be more pro-Labor than other States. i’d also agree with the poster earlier who identified that both sides Campaigns are spending a lot of time in liberal held marginals atm.

  6. “There’s nothing stopping you from dropping water on a burning building, so clearly you can do it.”

    I’m no expert here, but I think there would be big differences between dropping tons of water on buildings in the middle of a city and dropping it on burning bushland.

  7. interesting the demographics… I was born in 1955… early 60’s age… there are not many people now of my parents age. born early 1930’s… very late 1920s people born before 1920 are now 100……. the people born in 1940s are now in their 70’s and almost 80s………. the demogaphics will have huge impacts on our society and economy……….. and also votes. to the detriment of the liberals and Nationals………. We need to be fair to those at both ends of the spectrum those born in the 70s and 80s and those in the older cohort mentioned……… policies like franking tax credits cannot continue… nor can defects of public transport or the under staffing of nursing homes. The casualisation and insecurity of work cannot continue either

  9. GG

    I have been speaking to Traditional Labor voters who don’t like the idea of negative gearing rules changing in future. Rather than seeing it as a much needed reform, they see it as choices to invest and reduce tax liability being taken away from them. I am concerned about this attitude prevailing under the current economic outlook.

  10. Re Guytaur @9:54.

    “A) We are not doing higher taxes.
    B) If we were we would be using them We apply revenue to pay for government services like Medicare.”

  11. Looking at the seat polling of Longman last year, there were a lot of predictions and internal polling suggesting a comfortable Lib win (after they threw everything at the by-election) or a 50:50 result……mmmm

  13. Ged Kearney @gedkearney
    Apr 15

    ‘theft (from self checkouts) is estimated to cost Australian retailers $4.5 billion a year’ Makes you wonder why they don’t just employ checkout people.

  14. A question for your host:

    Ucomm is polling just about every night – we’ve had three calls this week. Mainly issues based. It is robo-polling so you are given options and answer by selecting a a number.

    I was wondering if any research has been done on whether the ordering of options influences the results. For example if you are asked what issue is most important to you and you get 1,2,3 or 4 as options, how often is 1 or 2 the given answer because people instinctively press before hearing all the options?

  15. If Netflix had full access to the Australian market we’d see a surge of Australian content on that platform. Netflix is investing bigly in local productions around the globally, but has been a little reluctant to invest in Australia even the dominance of Foxtel in the pay TV market. This is changing however.. Already it has produced the “Tidelines” drama series in Australia. I suspect the deal that Rupert has made with Netflix for Foxtel to carry Netflix from next year will see a significant ramp in Australian content.

  17. In defence of boomers, my experience is they still enlist in political parties. People below the age of 30 also join these pursuits. The cohorts that are most-missing are aged 30-40-50 years. They’re busy with their families and jobs, of course. But they are not often joiners. They have retreated from lots of communal activities; seemingly become the ‘consumers’ of politics rather than its ‘producers’.

    The volunteers who have so far agreed to help at my booth on Election Day are all boomers. The two Gen-X’s I asked have both declined. I have some millennials on my mental list and expect they will say yes, including one 25 yo female seafarer and activist in the MUA.

    I go to listen to live music whenever I can. The audiences are similar….plenty of boomers, lots of millennials….big gaps in the middle. I think there must be some significant economic and social drivers of this, which simply cannot be explained by traits connected to year-of-birth.

  18. @ElizabethJByrne tweets

    Further high court has struck out a federal law allowing federal candidates to accept gifts which had overridden state laws.

    Edit: Georgina Downer anyone? Bueller Bueller??

  19. Victoria @ #158 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 9:58 am

    GG

    I have been speaking to Traditional Labor voters who don’t like the idea of negative gearing rules changing in future. Rather than seeing it as a much needed reform, they see it as choices to invest and reduce tax liability being taken away from them. I am concerned about this attitude prevailing under the current economic outlook.

    Bowen has been unequivocal. So voters can make their choice.

  20. The whole concept of a progressive tax system is that you pay what is reasonable and you can afford.

    The only tinkering should be adjustments for inflation, with special attention to the point where people begin paying tax, the tax free threshold.

    The idea that you need to cut services to pay for a tax cut is abhorrent in a fair Society.

  21. “‘theft (from self checkouts) is estimated to cost Australian retailers $4.5 billion a year’ “

    Get me an electron microscope so I can find a violin small enough to express the full extent of my sadness for the big supermarket chains.

    I avoid the self serve checkouts whenever I can.

  23. “The idea that you need to cut services to pay for a tax cut is abhorrent in a fair Society.”

    The Right doesn’t want to provide services and it doesn’t believe in fairness.

    The purpose of endless tax cuts is twofold:

    – to win elections
    – to force spending cuts on future Governments.

  24. Steve777 says:
    Wednesday, April 17, 2019 at 9:55 am

    “There’s nothing stopping you from dropping water on a burning building, so clearly you can do it.”

    I’m no expert here, but I think there would be big differences between dropping tons of water on buildings in the middle of a city and dropping it on burning bushland.

    You obviously stopped reading at this point.

  25. DG

    Josh Thomas series Barracuda and Family Law are three series that seems to have made a good international audience. Typical for Netflix. Niche audience high quality content wins.

  27. I avoid the self serve checkouts whenever I can.
    ____
    I also. But when there are big queues (caused by lack of checkout operators) and I only have a few items I will use them.
    The supermarkets are using behavioural economics to drive us into self serve.

  28. I was phone polled first time ever last night by a mob I’ve never heard of – but I checked online before I answered any questions and they were legit. Was basically a seat poll (Reid) but asked some Fed 2s as well.

    Asked if I trusted either Shorten or Morrison and who I’d be voting for. What was my highest priority issue.

    On a seat level, who do I trust to do the best for the area and infrastructure and to rate all the candidates as ‘favourable or unfavourable’

    The local Lib candidate I rated neutral because I know nothing about her … but sadly for the Libs, all other answers were partisan and biased.

    I should have just told the guy I have a corn flute of Sam in my front window and that he was welcome to fill in the boxes accordingly! 😆

  30. Steve777 says:
    Wednesday, April 17, 2019 at 10:09 am

    “‘theft (from self checkouts) is estimated to cost Australian retailers $4.5 billion a year’ “

    Get me an electron microscope so I can find a violin small enough to express the full extent of my sadness for the big supermarket chains.

    I avoid the self serve checkouts whenever I can.

    Easy fix, employ checkout operators.

    Cheap bastards!

  32. Greensborough Growler @ #61 Wednesday, April 17th, 2019 – 7:38 am

    The continuing saga of facebook and Mark Zuckerberg. This is extraordinary!

    https://www.wired.com/story/facebook-mark-zuckerberg-15-months-of-fresh-hell/

    Thanks for posting. It is a long read. My amateur’s summary would be that Facebook is not fit for purpose. My guess for its future is that it will be unable to meet the conditions governments will eventually set for Social Media. It will probably start in the EU but the real end (of FB as we know it) will be in the US. It will be broken up, first by function and then by jurisdiction. It won’t happen until Trump is gone.

    I think people will eventually realize that FBs many naive transgressions outweigh the deliberate good bits, and that FB will eventually admit they can’t be fixed. This includes live stream nasties, capricious news filtering, and “coordinated inauthentic activity”. FB is too complex. It is trying to be too much. Even the smarties at Facebook don’t know how to manage what they created because they don’t understand what it is they’ve created. And that’s before you get to the hubris and arrogance that oozes out of them. (Did I say I don’t trust FB?)

  35. One basic fact involving the political legacy of the “boomer” generation, which will hopefully take some heat out there of this nonsense issue (disclaimer: being born in 1972, I am smack bang in the middle of Gen X). The elections in which the “Boomers” comprised the greatest proportion of the electorate were 1983 & 1984: two of the best results Labor have ever recorded in Federal elections. Further, they were the young voter cohort in those elections, meaning they voted significantly more for Labor than did the electorate as a whole.

    It is well known that the generation in the Australian population which has skewed most strongly towards the Coalition over its voting life was not the “Boomers”, but the one before them (various date ranges given, but I take birth years 1928-1945). They underpinned the Menzies ascendancy, providing a relatively Coalition-friendly youth cohort from 1949-1966. (They also comprised most of the 65+ cohort from about 1998-2012, and proved decisive in delivering John Howard his 2nd, 3rd & 4th election victories.) Only once “Boomers” got into voting age in significant numbers from 1969 did we see Labor start to record victories on a regular basis.

    So please, can we stop passing off “generation war” cliches as political analysis?

  36. If any Tassie seats go to the Coalition I will run around Salamanca Markets with budgie smugglers and a Bring Back Tony T shirt and Mr Bonham can take photos – aint gonna happen !!!

  39. BK

    My fix is to to get home deliveries. They then have to employ a personal shopper and a delivery driver.

    As I get my fresh produce at local shops which are usually better quality same or less prices it works well for me.

  40. On tax cuts – I was in a meeting in the office yesterday and to my surprise one of the other people in the meeting commented (ironically) how she was hanging out for her tax cut in 2028 – or more realistically that her daughter, who’s still a kid, might get to see it. I commented – yeah she might, when she’s about 90. Interesting- I was surprised and pleased to come across first hand evidence of skepticism about ScoMo’s tax cut promises out there in voterland.

  42. I’m currently prediction Liberals to take Herbert, Lindsay, Braddon and Bass from Labor, as well as regaining Indi and Wentworth from Independents.

    Hard to see ALP gaining seven or eight seats from the rest to be able to form government.

  43. Re Michael Joseph QUINLIVAN @9:56

    I suppose it’s about the formative experiences of each generation.

    So a couple if things to add (applies to Australia)

    – The youngest WW2 veteran, or person who lived through WW2 as an adult whether they served or not, was born around 1927-28 and is now in their 90s. My parents’ generation.
    – The youngest people who have some memory of WW2 (and who knew what was going on) are now in their mid 80s. John Howard (80 this year) was 6 when WW2 ended.
    – The youngest people who were in the work force when there was actual full employment in Australia (WW2 – 1974) are now about 60.
    – The youngest ‘Boomer’ is in their late 50s.

  45. “My fix is to to get home deliveries. They then have to employ a personal shopper and a delivery driver.”

    Delivery by drone is on the way.

  46. Steve777

    The children born in the 1940s had parents who had been through the 1930s Depression. This also taught them to avoid waste. 🙂

  47. 777

    They will still have to employ the personal shopper. So at least equal to the checkout operator and convenient.

    When they get to the point of eliminating the personal shopper their will be zero checkout operators anyway.

  49. Back on generations, I see the “born 1928-1945” generation as having had the greatest influence in shaping the Australia we live in today. PM’s Fraser, Hawke, Keating & Howard were of their number. Their votes underpinned the Menzies-Holt ascendancy of 1949-1966. Their votes turned what would otherwise have been Labor victories in 1998 & 2001 into Coalition ones, so turning John Howard from a one-term loser into a Liberal Party hero. How different Australia has become thanks to them.

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