Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor; Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll and Ipsos offer very mixed signals on the question of whether the government has enjoyed a rarely sighted “budget bounce”.

Two post-budget polls are in – Newspoll from The Australian, Ipsos for Nine Newspapers – and they offer contrasting pictures as to whether support for the government has gone up or down in the wake of last week’s budget.

Newspoll produces an encouraging result for the Coalition in showing Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, rather than 54-46. Ordinarily I would point out that a two-point movement from Newspoll is a rare occurrence, which close observers of the polling industry suspect is down to Newspoll smoothing its numbers with some variety of rolling average, in which the results of the previous poll are combined with those of the latest. However, the last Newspoll was, very unusually, four weeks ago, the delay being down to the New South Wales election a fortnight ago and a desire to hold off until the budget last week. So it would not surprise me if things were different this time, and the result was drawn entirely from this week’s survey, which will have been conducted from Thursday to Sunday (UPDATE: as indeed it was, from a sample of 1799).

The report currently up on The Australian’s website is a bit sketchy, but it tells us the Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 38% and Labor is down two to 37%, with One Nation down one to 6%. Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up three to 46% and Bill Shorten’s is up one to 37%, but there is no word yet on disapproval ratings, preferred prime minister, the Greens primary vote and the sample size. The report also rates the budget has scored the highest since the last Howard government budget in 2007 on impact on personal circumstances and cost of living. Stay tuned for further detail.

UPDATE: The Greens primary vote is steady at 9%; Morrison is down two on disapproval to 43%; Shorten is steady on disapproval at 51%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 43-36 to 46-35.

The post-budget Ipsos poll for Nine Newspapers, which is the first since mid-February, records an actual deterioration for the Coalition on the last since last time, albeit that that was an anomalously strong result for the Coalition (the one that had The Australian proclaiming “Morrison’s Tampa moment” across its front page headline). The two-party headline in the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with 51-49 last time, which I’m guessing applies to both respondent-allocated and two-party preferred preference measures since the reports don’t specify. Ipsos’s primary votes are as usual on the low side for the major parties and well on the high side for the Greens: the Coalition are down a point to 37%, Labor is steady on 34% and the Greens are steady on 13%. If it might be thought odd that such small primary vote movement should produce a two-point shift on two-party preferred, it would appear that rounding favoured the Coalition last time and Labor this time.

On the budget, the poll finds 38% expecting they would be better off and 24% saying worse off, which is around the same as last year. Forty-one per cent thought it fair and 29% unfair. Leadership ratings are, as usual, more favourable from Ipsos than other pollsters, but otherwise notable in recording increased uncommitted ratings across the board. Scott Morrison records 48% approval and 38% disapproval, both down one from last time; Bill Shorten is is down four on approval to 36% and one on disapproval to 51%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 48-38 to 46-35.

Reports on the poll, possibly paywalled, can be found at the Sydney Morning Herald and the Financial Review. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

944 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor; Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  3. Tom the first and best @ 8:10 pm

    There’s a name for the condition when your brain says “three” and your fingers type “four”. Trouble is, I can’t remember what it is. 🙂

    If anything, Victoria, Queensland and WA foreshadowing issue of writs would be enough to force the issue, since it would be even harder for the AEC, one would think, to run those three on one weekend, and NSW, SA and Tasmania one or two Saturdays later.

  4. Davidwh – “Can’t find the Coalition at $7.20 anywhere?” Why, Dave? Want to put a bit of mad money on them?

  7. JJ @ #148 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 8:33 pm

    Kenny said that the Coalition has improved in both primary and TPP. Likely 53/47. Otherwise he would have said “significantly improved” not just “improved”.

    Just checked and he does say both primary and 2PP – so we wait and see….

    Those predicting 53/47 for all three polls may be on to something!

  11. While waiting, why not watch a replay of Chris Kenny opining on opinion polls….

    Why not? Because he is a tw@

  12. 53/47 seems pretty entrenched, with MoE movement around it. Libs are just going to have to try to save the furniture – hopefully that doesn’t include Dutton, Abbott, Sukkar and Hunt.

    They are about the get dirty.

  16. Yeah I think 52/48 it is. There’s a cached google search showing an Australian article talking about a “four point turnaround”…

  18. Apparently google cache from the australian shows a “four point turnaround”

    Yeah, just tried it and it does.

    Enough for me.

  19. The libs/nats will not make the election close if the libs/nats combined primary vote is stuck around 38%

    Libs/nats will not win more than 55 seats with that primary vote

  20. https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/04/07/ipsos-53-47-labor-6/comment-page-4/#comment-3120937

    Running elections in different states at different times should be quite possible and even potentially have some staffing savings near state borders (staff working different polling booths on different weekends). The problems come from differences between the House of Reps election and the half-Senate election. Different issue of writs days mean two different electoral rolls or markings that are at much higher risk of voters getting ballot paper they are not entitled to (potentially causing reruns). Different election days between the different houses mean either voters turn up twice or possibly (depending on the legalities) the earlier election election day polls are also all pre-polls for the later election.

  21. poroti (Block)
    Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 7:30 pm
    Comment #72
    Jones and Credlin need to get out of the Rupertarium now and again. both of them are convinced this EV thing will be YUUGE (in a bad way) for Labor.

    —
    I imagine even Rupert himself will be screeching “All you can come up with is EV and PPM. What the f…k am I paying you for. Do better “

  27. If its a 38 PV for the Coalition, thats their best Newspoll PV since 29/07/18 when it was 39 around the By-elections last year.

  28. I clicked on “coalition in striking distance of labor – the australian” and got “404” on the Oz website. 404= page not found?

    Genuine link?

  30. 52-48. The closer it gets the more that Shorten’s record Disapproval numbers mean something.

    He could cost the ALP government. The people don’t like him, don’t trust him.

  33. The power of Murdoch is already in play.

    Thats it! I am boycotting all cafes, bakeries, barbers and nail salons that stock the Oz.

    Dirty rotten propaganda rag.

  34. I wish we could get a state breakdown. Galaxy had very strong NSW results for Coalition and would like to see to what degree there may be a state election related poll boost to LNP.

  35. citizen – its a genuine link, thats why you can see a preview on google, its what happens when someone posts a link too early, then they quickly take it down. It will go live again soon. Its 52-48.

  36. The reactionary right picking electric cars as their new #1 enemy is really quixotic, even for them.

    None of the petrol cars are made here any more so jingoism is limited, EVs accelerate faster and go faster if you’re a speed demon, unlike petrol cars they can be charged at home or anywhere there is a power point, in the long run they’re better for the environment and if you still need a diesel truck or something you’ll still be able to get it, it’s just the future for most people is electric.

    Another boulder they’re trying to push up hill when they’ve been unsuccessful with so many other boulders this decade. Out-of-touch.

  38. I’ll be interested to see how One National has faired. More libs going home? 52-48 is really 53 – 47 without the One National pref boondoggle.

  42. Paul Murray dribbling things out, there is a leader perception survey in NewsPoll

    ScoMoFaux leads on arrogant and smug

  44. If Kenny of Murdoch is putting doubt on the 9 Network polling at 53/47, and given Newspoll is for Murdoch hence the latest polling in the hands of Kenny for comment, Kenny critical of 9 may mean the Newspoll is within the 9 figure

    So our better result (given the bias of Kenny and Murdoch) from Newspoll is credible over the 9 polling

    Personally I do not trust any polling given the political bias of the media proprietors who Commission the polling

    I am more influenced by the snippets of internal polling by the Liberals

    In context, we have a minority government including because of a redistribution

    So the government has to win seats to survive

    A loss of just a couple of seats in Queensland, Victoria and West Australia and it is all over

    Polling is a National figure – the election will however be won in the above named States

    The National 2PP figure at the last election was near as to 50/50

    What were the State breakdowns?

    And particularly in the States such as Queensland and WA which returned a strong majority of Coalition members and in Victoria, significant because of the 2PP at the most recent State poll and the state of the Liberal Party in Victoria so there will be further losses to the Coalition in Victoria

    Polling can say what it says but it is the drilling down from the result of the last election which is the analysis

  47. Confessions & Victoria

    that Newspoll interactive chart link never gets updated until after midnight, its still going off the poll of 4 weeks ago.

  48. With a decent swing Labor will probably take out Peter Dutton, George Christensen and Christian Porter. Sounds like Zali might do Tony Abbott over. Has anyone heard if there’s a chance of prominent “progressive Liberal” candidates running against ScamMo and the remaining RWNJs like Kevin Andrews and Craig Kelly, in seats probably beyond the reach of Labor? (Wonder if Malcolm’s quietly working on that? Hee hee hee..)

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