Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor; Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll and Ipsos offer very mixed signals on the question of whether the government has enjoyed a rarely sighted “budget bounce”.

Two post-budget polls are in – Newspoll from The Australian, Ipsos for Nine Newspapers – and they offer contrasting pictures as to whether support for the government has gone up or down in the wake of last week’s budget.

Newspoll produces an encouraging result for the Coalition in showing Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, rather than 54-46. Ordinarily I would point out that a two-point movement from Newspoll is a rare occurrence, which close observers of the polling industry suspect is down to Newspoll smoothing its numbers with some variety of rolling average, in which the results of the previous poll are combined with those of the latest. However, the last Newspoll was, very unusually, four weeks ago, the delay being down to the New South Wales election a fortnight ago and a desire to hold off until the budget last week. So it would not surprise me if things were different this time, and the result was drawn entirely from this week’s survey, which will have been conducted from Thursday to Sunday (UPDATE: as indeed it was, from a sample of 1799).

The report currently up on The Australian’s website is a bit sketchy, but it tells us the Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 38% and Labor is down two to 37%, with One Nation down one to 6%. Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up three to 46% and Bill Shorten’s is up one to 37%, but there is no word yet on disapproval ratings, preferred prime minister, the Greens primary vote and the sample size. The report also rates the budget has scored the highest since the last Howard government budget in 2007 on impact on personal circumstances and cost of living. Stay tuned for further detail.

UPDATE: The Greens primary vote is steady at 9%; Morrison is down two on disapproval to 43%; Shorten is steady on disapproval at 51%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 43-36 to 46-35.

The post-budget Ipsos poll for Nine Newspapers, which is the first since mid-February, records an actual deterioration for the Coalition on the last since last time, albeit that that was an anomalously strong result for the Coalition (the one that had The Australian proclaiming “Morrison’s Tampa moment” across its front page headline). The two-party headline in the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with 51-49 last time, which I’m guessing applies to both respondent-allocated and two-party preferred preference measures since the reports don’t specify. Ipsos’s primary votes are as usual on the low side for the major parties and well on the high side for the Greens: the Coalition are down a point to 37%, Labor is steady on 34% and the Greens are steady on 13%. If it might be thought odd that such small primary vote movement should produce a two-point shift on two-party preferred, it would appear that rounding favoured the Coalition last time and Labor this time.

On the budget, the poll finds 38% expecting they would be better off and 24% saying worse off, which is around the same as last year. Forty-one per cent thought it fair and 29% unfair. Leadership ratings are, as usual, more favourable from Ipsos than other pollsters, but otherwise notable in recording increased uncommitted ratings across the board. Scott Morrison records 48% approval and 38% disapproval, both down one from last time; Bill Shorten is is down four on approval to 36% and one on disapproval to 51%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 48-38 to 46-35.

Reports on the poll, possibly paywalled, can be found at the Sydney Morning Herald and the Financial Review. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

944 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor; Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Kenny reckons Newspoll shows an improvement for the government 2PPP. Sounds like a +1 from whatever they were last time.

  3. I was just playing a game as I wait for Newspoll to stick its head above the parapet and it occurred to me in one of those lightbulb moments that, just as Kevin Rudd was put back in by Labor to save the furniture before the election, many in the Liberal Party probably had a similar belief in Scott Morrison.

    They knew that Turnbull couldn’t turn Newspoll around. It had become a self-fulfilling prophecy. They must have known when they heard laughter ring out across the land that their Conservative Golden Boy, Peter Dutton, wouldn’t be able to do it for them, so they plumped for the guy who had successfully run John Howard’s campaigns because Howard is revered among them.

    So we got Scott Morrison, and what we got wasn’t policy. Quite the opposite. We got policy jettisoned for Promos from ScoMo. He’s no policy wonk, that’s for sure, but he is perceived as being good at selling brand Liberal.

    Except brand Liberal is so on the nose, not even the Demtel Steak Knives Man could sell the Coalition to the people at this election!

    Sure, there’ll be the intransigent ones, the people I came across in the NSW election who vote Liberal as an ‘up yours!’ to the Labor Party. Plus the rusted on Liberal voters who believe the Liberal Party has made them wealthy and is the only party who want to keep them wealthy. But, like Kate and her family, there are now a hell of a lot more Australians who realise that the Coalition have been making them poorer and want to keep them that way.

    Only Labor want to do anything about THEM.

  6. https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/04/07/ipsos-53-47-labor-6/comment-page-2/#comment-3120849

    NSW is a Coalition held state, as confirmed by the recent election.

    The counter-pressures on the ALP states to avoid separate half-Senate elections are that the Coalition held states would then return the favour in spades next time (with less pretext and more calculation) and half-Senate only elections would favour the Greens and other crossbenchers over the ALP.

  7. Wouldn’t it be the case that Newspoll were in the field before Bill Shorten gave his Budget-In-Reply speech? So it’s the next Newspoll that will really tell the story?

  17. So Kenny telling us that IPSOS is unreliable – #newspoll much more reliable AND the Coalition has gain ground and the budget was well received.

    #Auspol

  18. C@tmomma @ #94 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 7:56 pm

    Late Riser @ #79 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 7:39 pm

    Since we have a new WB post for an Ipsos poll I’m wondering if that means there won’t be a Newspoll tonight. Either this Ipsos post is the entrée for a Newspoll post to come, or that this is it for tonight. Here’s hoping for a result tonight.

    Mr Bowe just said above us here that he would add the Newspoll as it became available.

    Ah. I need to pay better attention. Thanks.

  20. I can see little sense in delaying the calling of an election for a week. But I’ve seen little sense in what this Government has been doing for a long time now.

    I do wonder how on earth so many people can still prefer a government that has been doing absolutely nothing for years and has no new ideas or plans for the future beyond the election.

  23. So Kenny telling us that IPSOS is unreliable – #newspoll much more reliable AND the Coalition has gain ground and the budget was well received.

    Yeah, he needs to work on his cheerleading performance. Sounds like same same with a rounding tick to Coalition.

  28. Kenny seems to have focused on the primary vote. Quite likely the coalition 2PP has actually gone the other way if that’s the case. Usual behaviour of Newscorpse to look for the one figure that might give a sliver of hope.

  29. Last NewsPoll was 11 March..

    Scott Morrison’s visit last week to the Christmas Island regional processing centre in a bid to keep the pressure on Labor’s softened border protection policy failed to ameliorate the damage, with the two-party-preferred vote widening from 53-47 a fortnight ago to 54-46 this week, giving Labor a clear eight-point lead over the ­Coalition.

  31. Stephen Koukoulas
    ‏
    Verified account

    The polls to be released tonight must show a compelling Labor lead: Election betting this afternoon has seen further strong money on Labor
    Labor $1.15
    Coalition $7.20

  33. Did anyone else see what I saw on the #newspoll twitter feed? Some fake news just got wiped almost real-time.

  36. The last Newspoll had PVs 36 for Coal and 39 labor. The Coalition are still miles behind even if there is any improvement.

  40. Dennis Atkins tweets..must have got his bottom smacked by Rupert last month

    This is better than Newspoll. I’m going to Stan & Chill by myself. Bugger Newspoll – see you all tomorrow. By the way, my Newspoll tip is 54/46 labor’s way. Night night

  44. Last Newspoll was
    LNP 36
    LAB 39
    GRN 9
    PHON 7
    OTH 9
    LNP 2PP 46
    ALP 2PP 54

    Quite possible to imagine the LNP going up a notch at the expense of PHON and OTH but not picking up any 2PP, or even going backwards on 2PP

  48. Kenny said that the Coalition has improved in both primary and TPP. Likely 53/47. Otherwise he would have said “significantly improved” not just “improved”.

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