Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor; Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll and Ipsos offer very mixed signals on the question of whether the government has enjoyed a rarely sighted “budget bounce”.

Two post-budget polls are in – Newspoll from The Australian, Ipsos for Nine Newspapers – and they offer contrasting pictures as to whether support for the government has gone up or down in the wake of last week’s budget.

Newspoll produces an encouraging result for the Coalition in showing Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, rather than 54-46. Ordinarily I would point out that a two-point movement from Newspoll is a rare occurrence, which close observers of the polling industry suspect is down to Newspoll smoothing its numbers with some variety of rolling average, in which the results of the previous poll are combined with those of the latest. However, the last Newspoll was, very unusually, four weeks ago, the delay being down to the New South Wales election a fortnight ago and a desire to hold off until the budget last week. So it would not surprise me if things were different this time, and the result was drawn entirely from this week’s survey, which will have been conducted from Thursday to Sunday (UPDATE: as indeed it was, from a sample of 1799).

The report currently up on The Australian’s website is a bit sketchy, but it tells us the Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 38% and Labor is down two to 37%, with One Nation down one to 6%. Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up three to 46% and Bill Shorten’s is up one to 37%, but there is no word yet on disapproval ratings, preferred prime minister, the Greens primary vote and the sample size. The report also rates the budget has scored the highest since the last Howard government budget in 2007 on impact on personal circumstances and cost of living. Stay tuned for further detail.

UPDATE: The Greens primary vote is steady at 9%; Morrison is down two on disapproval to 43%; Shorten is steady on disapproval at 51%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 43-36 to 46-35.

The post-budget Ipsos poll for Nine Newspapers, which is the first since mid-February, records an actual deterioration for the Coalition on the last since last time, albeit that that was an anomalously strong result for the Coalition (the one that had The Australian proclaiming “Morrison’s Tampa moment” across its front page headline). The two-party headline in the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with 51-49 last time, which I’m guessing applies to both respondent-allocated and two-party preferred preference measures since the reports don’t specify. Ipsos’s primary votes are as usual on the low side for the major parties and well on the high side for the Greens: the Coalition are down a point to 37%, Labor is steady on 34% and the Greens are steady on 13%. If it might be thought odd that such small primary vote movement should produce a two-point shift on two-party preferred, it would appear that rounding favoured the Coalition last time and Labor this time.

On the budget, the poll finds 38% expecting they would be better off and 24% saying worse off, which is around the same as last year. Forty-one per cent thought it fair and 29% unfair. Leadership ratings are, as usual, more favourable from Ipsos than other pollsters, but otherwise notable in recording increased uncommitted ratings across the board. Scott Morrison records 48% approval and 38% disapproval, both down one from last time; Bill Shorten is is down four on approval to 36% and one on disapproval to 51%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 48-38 to 46-35.

Reports on the poll, possibly paywalled, can be found at the Sydney Morning Herald and the Financial Review. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

944 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor; Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. On Adani the Greens are a disgrace. They’ve spent however many years attacking the Labor opposition over Adani, when the real fox in the hen house was the federal coalition govt.

  2. Morgan went subscribers only after the last election. I guess they are reminding everybody they exist in the lead up to this one.

  3. “Support for the Greens is up by 1% to 13.5%.”

    Well considering the Greens highest vote is 11.76% in 2010 I think Roy’s Morgan poll is B.S.

    “Morgan poll rearing its head again? I thought them no longer extant??”

    Roy Morgan said Labor would win the 2001 federal election. After that cock-up the media hasn’t given them no more media coverage or attention.

  4. On Adani the ALP is a disgrace. For many years they have refused to take a definitive stand on the issue enabling the COALition to pursue its appalling policies. ALP supporters should hang their heads in shame.

  5. Didn’t I tell you that Dragonista said that Morrison was using this week to get Treasury and Finance to cost Labor’s plans? Equals big scary numbers for the Murdoch rags to run with.

  6. As some of you are having a nice old chat about the Shinkansen you should visit the JR east museum in Saitama and the SCMaglev Railway Park in Nagoya.
    Gives you an idea of what goes into getting a high speed train to go at high speed safely and smoothly.

  7. Late Riser @ #882 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 9:58 pm

    Watching the SA swimming championships, 800m mens free, the swimmer in lane 2 (might be lane 1 or 3) smiled and flashed the white power symbol as the camera panned to him. Is there a replay?

    I didn’t watch it.

    This is the OK sign sometimes (I hear) used as a White Power sign.

    Goodnight all. 💤💤

  8. So accumulating private debt leads to asset price falls, bankruptcies and job losses

    What abject nonsense

    Yes, the assets of Companies and individuals can be liquidated to repay debt and, with forced sales, asset valuations are typically not achieved – so “fire sale” plus you gave appointment costs

    But the calling in of that debt is for a particular reason principally being the inability to meet obligations as and when due – and there is a legal process in such circumstances

    Debt is a factor – indeed a requirement because the norm is that you do not have the accrued cash on deposit to buy your home, buy the stock, fixtures and fittings and self fund your Trade Debtor Ledger

    So it is not the debt, it is the performance of the asset that debt is invested into

    And, of course, there is the “buffer” of proprietor equity, being the deposit when buying a home or the Capital &. Reserves on the Balance Sheet including Retained Earnings (and that the proprietor ownership is not being progressively transitioned to external creditors being principally the bankers of the Trade Creditors

    There is also the fact that Housing Loans and certain investments of business are serviced on a Principal + Interest basis, so repayable over term

    Past that most businesses enjoy interest only facilities reviewed at least annually as to performance and the protection of liquidity and of the Balance Sheet

    Working Capital facilities are on a come and go basis

    That, very briefly, is the function of private debt

    Government debt is again for specific purpose including financing deficits – it being the responsibility of government to its citizens to manage across the economic cycle, so providing impetus as and when necessary and the opposite as the economic circumstances of the Nation dictate

    So never confuse private debt with government debt

    Government is not a business – it is a facilitator

    Government is not listed on the ASX – obviously

    Private debt grows – as a function of growth itself

    Without growth we would wither and cease to be

    Such as a Department Store chasing viability by reducing points of representation, inventory and staffing temporarily generating liquidity by that process – there is no recovery from such a scenario

    To present that accumulating private debt leads to a collapse of asset values, bankruptcies and job losses is exactly wrong

    There is my old saying that everyone is rich enough to do something – the secret being not to over extend but equally not to under achieve

    That is the real world – and why lenders exist and are a vital component of society

    Some contributing on here really need to start living in the real world

    The world of commerce and industry – and look at the advancements, even Spotify!!

  9. Josh boy just waffling on about the results of some modelling on rent increases as a result of negative gearing changes.

    All this modelling is just plain bs. I don’t know why the media and others show such touch ing faith in it. It is easy to find some hack economist to come up with a model to give whatever result you want.

    The only value in the modelling is if it clarifies the assumptions on which it is based. But these seem to be never discussed.

  10. Greens are long term equal opportunity critics of both major parties supporting Adani and any development of Galilee basin coal

    For those fretting about the bogus EV campaign demolishes a few lies and considers a silver lining

    Coalition hits bottom of barrel with fake news campaign against electric cars

    Any publicity is good publicity
    Ironically, the furore that has erupted over the past week or so in relation to the state of electric vehicles in Australia has likely set in place a juggernaut that can no longer be ignored.

    Australians are talking about electric cars, they have entered our social and political atmosphere and it is only now a matter of time before they become as inexorably ever-present as smartphones and solar panels.

  11. Did Russia meddle in Madagascar’s election?

    A BBC investigation has revealed that at least six candidates were offered money by Russians in the lead up to last year’s presidential elections in Madagascar.

    The presence of Russian political strategists with close ties to the Kremlin, posing as tourists with the alleged aim of helping to control the tightly fought race, has raised questions whether democracy in the former French colony has been fatally compromised.

  12. Boris @ #802 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 5:37 pm

    “Around one in eight NBN fixed-line connections do not come close to providing the full speed of the consumer’s plan.”

    Connected today, promised 48 get 21, maybe it will get better over time?

    I had the same problem until I went out and bought a new cable to connect the NBN device to my modem. Yes, I know the Ethernet cable is brand new, so to quote the tech support guy from Aussie Broadband, “the cable included in your modem is cheap and nasty, so before we try anything else, replace it with a high quality one”. A new $15 Ethernet cable approximately doubled my speed.

  13. Labor folk here really do not know how to debate with the Greens. Unlike against the Coalition -which is easy, not there are any Coaltion supporters here. They’re discomfort with the Greens is palpable.

    They are reduced to the BW inanity that their positions are unsound simply because they are not big enough.

  14. Roy Morgan

    An interesting individual who has you crossing the street!

    Not many have that impact!!

    And re Adani there are lawful Contracts providing the protections they do to the Parties including in regards impacts including environmental

    The ALP are the Opposition

    The politics of Adani are most obviously Liberal Party and Liberal National Party politics where we once again see confirmation by what is in the media now, on the cusp of an election

    And you could be excused for adding One Nation and Katter to the politics

    A Labor Government will act in accordance with what it inherits – and it has confirmed it will not part finance the project which is an appropriate decision

  15. The Greens are simply a post box for gathering Labor preferences. You don’t debate post boxes. They are inanimate objects.

  16. Engie, the French Company which is the proprietor of Simply Energy, made the decision to close the facilities it has closed

    The Company has given its reasons for its decision

    Such decisions, mirroring similar decisions by other complimentary businesses, is the future

    From there there is the impact of those reasons on prospective lenders, globally

    There are always more than one way to skin a cat

  17. Greensborough Growler
    Monday, April 8, 2019 at 11:03 pm
    The Greens are simply a post box for gathering Labor preferences. You don’t debate post boxes. They are inanimate objects.
    that was before the Greens started taking ALP seats.

  18. Watching FryThePlanet on QANDA. 🙂

    Is he going to have a full on meltdown?? Channeling his leader and going all shouty??

    And, a lot of the questions are from daH young folk?? That can t be a good sign.

  19. Missed the makeup of the QANDA audience tonight.

    Anyone know what it is or did the ABC just get the local young labor branch a block booking. 🙂

    If thats not it….the Libs are in dire and deep dodoo.

  20. So…if you voted for Phelps in Wentworth on the basis of her getting the Medevac legislation and concern for AS you have now heard Josh announce they will repeal that legislation after the election.

    so Josh can expect a big box of chockies and a bottle of plonk from Kerryn then??

  21. The Libs have gone bonkers. They’re piling it on regarding EVs. It’s an old fashioned political bar fight, with verbal chairs, tables and beer bottles being thrown everywhere… each one more idiotic than the last.

    So far Labor’s policy has “wrecked weekends”, “stolen our utes”, and changed the “fair dinkum” way of life. It’s been labelled as “communist”, “Pink Batts”, “School Halls” and even “another NBN”.

    All of this, mind youse, when the Liberal policy on EVs is practically the same as Labor’s!

    Their basic argument seems to be that EVs have to be done right, and you just KNOW Bill Shorten will fuck it up, because he fucks up everything else, and then lies about it. Not much of an argument, but there it is, the Liberal Philosophy in a nutshell: LABOR BOO!

    It’s the fundamentalist streak in Morrison and his gang that’s driving the response. They simply CANNOT acknowledge that Labor has any good ideas at all. At times (such as the present) this has caused them to actually cancel their own policies, for fear they might need co-operation from Labor to implement them.

    It’s crazy. It’s destructive. It’s soul destroying. It’s against every aspect of the national interest. But they persist.

    A very large cleanout is required.

  22. The rules are in place for Adani to comply with. They believe they have achieved that and the Minister should approve their application. With compliance, there is no need to refer anything to Parliament. Labor has said they will not wind back any approval so that’s it from a Federal level.

    The Greens say they are focused on environmental issues.

    In the years to come, if Adani proceeds, will the Greens look back and say they did everything possible for the environment or was there a political element to their behavior? Remember, Adani is one of many mining companies lining up to get into the Galilee basin.

    If you play the man not the ball, you can often miss the big picture. This minor party has form in relation to misreading the achievable and the wished for outcomes.

    For their many followers rightly concerned about the effect of coal mining, I feel everything should be thrown at the L/NP Minister who will probably approve this application this week.

  23. Decisions made, and being made by this LNP government are suspect at best and often something worse.
    It will be interesting where this LNP election campaign, to retain government, goes from this week.
    The major media player prepared to move the goalposts in an effort to secure a victory.
    The other non ABC media player seems to be maintaining an almost fair and reasonable approach in comparison.
    The ABC, the public broadcaster, is no longer identifiable as the trusted purveyor of news.
    The LNP are throwing smokescreens at everything, desperate to portray themselves in any manner which diverts from their political ambitions and the upholder of all financial shenanigans less they miss an opportunity to advance the prospects.
    Labor is maintaining a precipitant path with little forgiveness.
    A public more often than not only prepared to offer little more than a passing glance at the reality of our government, they being locked into a spiral of earning enough to repay banks, mortgages and wanton largesse.
    Climate at a pivotal point of balance and a PM prepared to raise a schoolyard ruckus about light trucks to win an election!
    The Greens promising a hint of headway in the polls and the Animal people undoing this hint!
    And what of the direction of Australia and the government it elects as we move deeper into the 21st Century amid the plethora of technological and environmental changes storming the planet, placing an untested burden on the desire and integrity of humans to manage the place we all live.
    For many it appears that Bill Shorten and Labor are seen as the future, albeit with some trepidation and hesitation, to move and govern Australia in a manner consistent with the desires and expectations of its population.
    These desires and expectations of Australians are in no way easy to identify as an accurate portrait of Australia. Or are they?
    The Darling River is still dry, the GBR is dying, the cities are a congested mess of humanity, beggars in the streets, indigenous non-advancement, TVs cars and trucks all bigger and Barnaby fuelling a population explosion.
    It no wonder we all seem a little bewildered.
    History will have an interesting story to tell of this moment in Australia and where we take ourselves in the years following.

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