Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor; Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll and Ipsos offer very mixed signals on the question of whether the government has enjoyed a rarely sighted “budget bounce”.

Two post-budget polls are in – Newspoll from The Australian, Ipsos for Nine Newspapers – and they offer contrasting pictures as to whether support for the government has gone up or down in the wake of last week’s budget.

Newspoll produces an encouraging result for the Coalition in showing Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, rather than 54-46. Ordinarily I would point out that a two-point movement from Newspoll is a rare occurrence, which close observers of the polling industry suspect is down to Newspoll smoothing its numbers with some variety of rolling average, in which the results of the previous poll are combined with those of the latest. However, the last Newspoll was, very unusually, four weeks ago, the delay being down to the New South Wales election a fortnight ago and a desire to hold off until the budget last week. So it would not surprise me if things were different this time, and the result was drawn entirely from this week’s survey, which will have been conducted from Thursday to Sunday (UPDATE: as indeed it was, from a sample of 1799).

The report currently up on The Australian’s website is a bit sketchy, but it tells us the Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 38% and Labor is down two to 37%, with One Nation down one to 6%. Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up three to 46% and Bill Shorten’s is up one to 37%, but there is no word yet on disapproval ratings, preferred prime minister, the Greens primary vote and the sample size. The report also rates the budget has scored the highest since the last Howard government budget in 2007 on impact on personal circumstances and cost of living. Stay tuned for further detail.

UPDATE: The Greens primary vote is steady at 9%; Morrison is down two on disapproval to 43%; Shorten is steady on disapproval at 51%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 43-36 to 46-35.

The post-budget Ipsos poll for Nine Newspapers, which is the first since mid-February, records an actual deterioration for the Coalition on the last since last time, albeit that that was an anomalously strong result for the Coalition (the one that had The Australian proclaiming “Morrison’s Tampa moment” across its front page headline). The two-party headline in the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with 51-49 last time, which I’m guessing applies to both respondent-allocated and two-party preferred preference measures since the reports don’t specify. Ipsos’s primary votes are as usual on the low side for the major parties and well on the high side for the Greens: the Coalition are down a point to 37%, Labor is steady on 34% and the Greens are steady on 13%. If it might be thought odd that such small primary vote movement should produce a two-point shift on two-party preferred, it would appear that rounding favoured the Coalition last time and Labor this time.

On the budget, the poll finds 38% expecting they would be better off and 24% saying worse off, which is around the same as last year. Forty-one per cent thought it fair and 29% unfair. Leadership ratings are, as usual, more favourable from Ipsos than other pollsters, but otherwise notable in recording increased uncommitted ratings across the board. Scott Morrison records 48% approval and 38% disapproval, both down one from last time; Bill Shorten is is down four on approval to 36% and one on disapproval to 51%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 48-38 to 46-35.

Reports on the poll, possibly paywalled, can be found at the Sydney Morning Herald and the Financial Review. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

944 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor; Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Bw, I came late to your praise of Garanca the other night. Were you watching the Met broadcast clip? (I’ll delay gratuitous uploading pro tem)

    I saw her Octavian in Dresden a few years back -howzzat !

  2. Just watched Australian Story on the Seekers. What a fabulous voice Judith Durham had and still has! Followed by an ABC ad featuring the fabulous song Bruce Woodley co-wrote with Done Newton of the Bushwhackers ‘I am Australian’.

    ….and now, foreign interference in Australia on 4 Corners.

  3. Socrates @ #850 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 8:44 pm


    Re USA and HSR – politics, and corruptly high costs of rail construction work. For long distance travel (eg LA NY) it is too slow but for big corridors in east and west (eg SF – LA and DC – Boston) HSR would work well in USA. Airlines, car and oil industry all try to block it, and a protected and highly inefficient industry does it no favours.

    They have form. Mr Ford and the dismantling of the LA rail network comes to mind. I would have thought NYC – Chicago would be a goer too.

  4. Frydenberg is the sole guest on Qanda tonight, a gig Scotty never took up when he was Treasurer.

    Marion Groves@MarionGroves
    Serious question for @qanda – why are you featuring only one LNP politician, Josh Freydenberg, on tomorrow night’s budget episode? Why wasn’t @Bowenchris invited to provide the political “balance” you like to pride yourselves on? #auspol

    ABC Q&AVerified account@QandA
    12h12 hours ago
    ABC Q&A Retweeted Marion Groves
    Serious answer – Q&A offers an opportunity for the Treasurer to be questioned by citizens after the budget. Joe Hockey faced tough questions in 2014 & 2015. Scott Morrison was asked but never appeared. We will ask the next treasurer too.

  5. We all look at the EV issue from the car owner point of view- but the benefits to the city, silent streets, no air pollution is mind blowing.
    Was in Hangzhou last year, with all electric buses, motorcycles, and most cars. A city of 10 million, and the streets are nearly silent…..

  6. In my experience riding the Shinkansen is fairly mundane as the ride is so smooth.

    However it’s another experience again to watch as one goes past at 3ookm/h plus. You can do this at minor stations where non-stopping trains travel one track away from the platform.

  7. On Evs.

    Electric motors don’t need gears because electric forces propagate at the speed of light and have zero inertia. That makes them light and powerful. I could even imagine building an electric motor directly into a wheel itself. (Theoretically it could spin up a wheel until it disintegrates under its own centripetal forces. Vehicle top speed would depend on your reaction time and how straight the road is, and I suppose whether or not you became airborne.) The only advantage ICE vehicles have is a 100 year head start in design, engineering, and support infrastructure.

  8. Watching 4 Corners now. Michael Daley looking more and more on the money. Recent Chinese immigration seems to be a little more than earnest young Asian aspirationals looking for a way ahead.

    Sam Dastyari was deep-sixed for $1,500. How much have actual government ministers been taking?

  9. Bushfire Bill
    Monday, April 8, 2019 at 9:10 pm
    Watching 4 Corners now. Michael Daley looking more and more on the money. Recent Chinese immigration seems to be a little more than earnest young Asian aspirationals looking for a way ahead.
    What? They come to this country and hope to kick on? The outrage of it all.

  10. The last time we had a current account surplus was in 1973.

    This can be seen in an ABS spreadsheet entitled TABLE 30. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, SUMMARY: ORIGINAL – FINANCIAL YEAR and can be downloaded at 5302.0 – Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia, Dec 2018

    It would be good if Chris Bowen could accept that a currency issuer can sustain deficits indefinitely whereas the domestic private sector cannot.

    Therefore the domestic private sector ought to be running surpluses, not accumulating debts that will eventually lead to asset price falls, bankruptcies, and job losses.

    Given that Australia runs current account deficits, the Australian Government needs to be running fiscal deficits that are larger than the current account deficits. That is the only way for the domestic private sector to be in surplus.

    Chris Bowen does not understand that.

  11. On the days when you can’t be stuffed setting the tempo, sitting behind a e-bike rider is the best wind break. I once averaged 30kph sitting behind an little Asian grandma on my folding bike enjoying the ease of the draft.

  12. Grow up nath.

    It’s perfectly obvious that the Chinese government is an agent of influence in Australian politics at all levels. Furthermore it monitors not only its own citizens’ activities here, but that of non-citizens who are critical of China. It curries favour with both sides of politics, via influence peddling and the payment of money. The Chinese government is also directly implicated in National Security breaches (aka “spying”) in this country.

    It’s not a long stretch to consider whether Chinese money has not been deliberately directed at the Australian property market (as one example) in an effort to destabilize our economy via “peaceful” means.

  13. The Wind Farm Commissioner received only eight complaints last year?

    Given the way Alan Jones has regular tirades against wind farms, I’d have thought his loyal listeners would be making thousands of complaints!

  14. Bushfire Bill
    Re your last post. The first paragraph was at least in the realm of sanity. The second, not so much.

    Why are you suddenly directing your hostility against the Chinese government when your posts have clearly been hostile to people of Chinese descent?

  15. Nath, you are about as attractive as a blowfly, and just as annoying. Now, buzz off. There’s a good troll.

  16. Just a reminder, Essential expected tomorrow morning. I haven’t spotted any new guesses since this morning, so here is that same list again.

    PB-Guess:Essential 2019-04-09

    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    PB mode: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 53.4 to 46.6 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 52

    ALP / LNP
    54 / 46 (?)andy Murray
    53 / 47 a r *until the election
    54 / 46 Al Pal
    53 / 47 Andrew_Earlwood
    52 / 48 BK
    53 / 47 booleanbach
    54 / 46 briefly
    53 / 47 chinda63
    52 / 48 Confessions
    54.7239618 / 45.2760382 Dan Gulberry *permanent
    55 / 45 Davidwh
    54 / 46 EB *permanent
    54 / 46 Fozzie Logic *permanent
    53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
    54 / 46 Fulvio Sammut
    54 / 46 Gecko
    53 / 47 Goll
    54 / 46 grimace
    53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    55 / 45 HaveAchat
    54 / 46 ItzaDream
    53 / 47 j341983
    53 / 47 John Reidy
    53 / 47 JohnCee
    57 / 43 KayJay *all next polls
    53 / 47 klasib
    53 / 47 lefty e
    52 / 48 Marcos De Feilittt
    53 / 47 Matt31
    53 / 47 Mavis Davis
    53 / 47 max
    53 / 47 Mr Ed
    53 / 47 Outsider
    55 / 45 pica
    53 / 47 Player One
    53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
    55 / 45 Question *until the election
    53 / 47 Red13
    55 / 45 rhwombat
    54 / 46 Scott
    51 / 49 Sgh1969
    56 / 44 Simon² Katich® *eternal
    54 / 46 Sohar
    53 / 47 sonar *permanent
    53 / 47 steve davis
    53 / 47 The Silver Bodgie
    53 / 47 Tricot *any polls
    53 / 47 Victoria
    53 / 47 Whisper
    53 / 47 Work To Rule
    53 / 47 Yabba
    51 / 49 Zoidlord

  17. Bushfire Bill
    Monday, April 8, 2019 at 9:22 pm
    It’s not a long stretch to consider whether Chinese money has not been deliberately directed at the Australian property market (as one example) in an effort to destabilize our economy via “peaceful” means.
    I’m sure Xi Jinping has been keeping a close eye on the Box Hill property market for the past 10 years as part of a cunning plan to depress housing by 5% after having raised it by %100 in the past decade. You are an utter nutjob.

  18. So, Josh is the solo guest on Q&A tonight. Seems to me the “Budget” is a document with little more weight than a campaign stump speech, given the impossibility of passing it in the Parliament and the actual suspension of Parliament for the forseeable political future.

    So why is Frydenberg being given any more weight than as a de facto caretaker Treasurer?

  19. …..the Australian Government needs to be running fiscal deficits that are larger than the current account deficits. That is the only way for the domestic private sector to be in surplus.

    …except that a deficit in the ‘current account’ is offset by – is really no more than – a matching surplus in the ‘capital account’. Australia is a capital investment destination. Some of the capital comes as debt and (probably too little) comes as equity. In an economy with free capital flows, there is actually no need for the Commonwealth to fund a private sector surplus. Whether it does or not is in any case impossible to verify, as the foreign sector helps to finance the whole economy, including both the private and public sectors.

    The willingness of the foreign sector to finance the local economy and its constituents is significantly influenced by the monetary policies applied here. It’s also notable that there are flows into and out of the Australian economy. At a certain level there is no difference between attracting foreign capital and retaining national capital. In a liberal order, all capital is fungible at all times and in all venues. It is not possible to differentiate between national capital that is being repatriated and ‘new’ foreign capital settled in this economy, or between these flows and domestic earnings attributable to ‘foreigners’ that are retained in Australia for re-investment. The issue for Australians is how to obtain investment flows at the cheapest rates. This requires us to run a hard money policy.

  20. Frydebudget just babbling now. I can’t follow him. Probably just as well that Bowen is not there and not babbling too.

  21. GhostWhoVotes

    Following Following @GhostWhoVotes
    #Morgan Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47.5 ALP 52.5 #auspol

    3:48 AM – 8 Apr 2019

  22. At the best of times you have to be in a good mood to listen to Frydenberg; it’s only Monday and I have already suffering from bullshit overload. not tonight.

  23. Did I just hear Frydenburg answer a question about whether it was better to provide Services or give a whacking big tax cut to the well-off, say that the tax cut was the better course because it encourages people to earn more!?!

    A healthy society is not all about who can earn the most money! And anyway, not everyone can! What about them, Josh!?!

  24. Watching the SA swimming championships, 800m mens free, the swimmer in lane 2 (might be lane 1 or 3) smiled and flashed the white power symbol as the camera panned to him. Is there a replay?

  25. Australia is a liberal economy that runs a current account deficit financed by the issue of Australian Dollars. In this respect, we are in the same position as the US. Our dollars are accepted for settlement in third economies, which means, really, Australian Dollars are treated as quasi-reserves in the same way that the USD is a reserve currency. If Australia always ran a current account surplus, it would not be producing ‘excess’ dollars and its currency would not function as a quasi-reserve value. The Dollars required for this would never be issued.

    This can be seen by considering the situation for Japan. In spite of the fact that it is a large, strongly internationalised economy it typically runs a current account surplus/capital deficit. Japan chose this many years ago. It is not in a position to provide reserves to other economies. Instead it compiles reserves issued by other economies. Germany does the same thing. So do Switzerland and The Netherlands. China is attempting to follow the same course by the use of gold as a proxy for yuan. By contrast, the UK is a reserve producer, though not on a great scale.

  26. Dog’s Breakfast @ #873 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 9:29 pm

    Apart from possibly asking WB for a dedicated gout post, did I hear that Dutton was fingered on 4C?

    Dutton met with that Chinese businessman after an Senator/lobbyist got paid $20.000 in “donations” to discuss fast tracking his Visa application; ;its on video record shown by 4C BUT Dutton banned him from returning to Australia – probably because he caught wind of the meeting not being kept secret. He nearly got caught with his hand in the till… missed by that much.

    As for the so called Abbott expose that the ABC promoted it was nothing more than Abbott accepting 40.000 in “foreign donations” when it was legal to do so – storm in a teacup and an hour of my life I won’t get back.

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