Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor; Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll and Ipsos offer very mixed signals on the question of whether the government has enjoyed a rarely sighted “budget bounce”.

Two post-budget polls are in – Newspoll from The Australian, Ipsos for Nine Newspapers – and they offer contrasting pictures as to whether support for the government has gone up or down in the wake of last week’s budget.

Newspoll produces an encouraging result for the Coalition in showing Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, rather than 54-46. Ordinarily I would point out that a two-point movement from Newspoll is a rare occurrence, which close observers of the polling industry suspect is down to Newspoll smoothing its numbers with some variety of rolling average, in which the results of the previous poll are combined with those of the latest. However, the last Newspoll was, very unusually, four weeks ago, the delay being down to the New South Wales election a fortnight ago and a desire to hold off until the budget last week. So it would not surprise me if things were different this time, and the result was drawn entirely from this week’s survey, which will have been conducted from Thursday to Sunday (UPDATE: as indeed it was, from a sample of 1799).

The report currently up on The Australian’s website is a bit sketchy, but it tells us the Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 38% and Labor is down two to 37%, with One Nation down one to 6%. Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up three to 46% and Bill Shorten’s is up one to 37%, but there is no word yet on disapproval ratings, preferred prime minister, the Greens primary vote and the sample size. The report also rates the budget has scored the highest since the last Howard government budget in 2007 on impact on personal circumstances and cost of living. Stay tuned for further detail.

UPDATE: The Greens primary vote is steady at 9%; Morrison is down two on disapproval to 43%; Shorten is steady on disapproval at 51%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 43-36 to 46-35.

The post-budget Ipsos poll for Nine Newspapers, which is the first since mid-February, records an actual deterioration for the Coalition on the last since last time, albeit that that was an anomalously strong result for the Coalition (the one that had The Australian proclaiming “Morrison’s Tampa moment” across its front page headline). The two-party headline in the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with 51-49 last time, which I’m guessing applies to both respondent-allocated and two-party preferred preference measures since the reports don’t specify. Ipsos’s primary votes are as usual on the low side for the major parties and well on the high side for the Greens: the Coalition are down a point to 37%, Labor is steady on 34% and the Greens are steady on 13%. If it might be thought odd that such small primary vote movement should produce a two-point shift on two-party preferred, it would appear that rounding favoured the Coalition last time and Labor this time.

On the budget, the poll finds 38% expecting they would be better off and 24% saying worse off, which is around the same as last year. Forty-one per cent thought it fair and 29% unfair. Leadership ratings are, as usual, more favourable from Ipsos than other pollsters, but otherwise notable in recording increased uncommitted ratings across the board. Scott Morrison records 48% approval and 38% disapproval, both down one from last time; Bill Shorten is is down four on approval to 36% and one on disapproval to 51%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 48-38 to 46-35.

Reports on the poll, possibly paywalled, can be found at the Sydney Morning Herald and the Financial Review. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

944 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor; Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Bennelong Lurker @ #2424 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 5:48 pm

    A generalized comment to people wondering about the ALP campaign in Bennelong and the promoting of Professor Brian Owler. *

    In the part of the electorate in which I live there has to date been no profile raising/make people aware type activity at all (to my knowledge, any way). Admittedly this part of the electorate returns votes to the Liberals on (roughly) a 2: 1 ratio, so it is possible that more activity is happening in some other sections.

    *Question without notice to medicos on PB: Does the tradition of referring to surgeons as “Mr”rather than “Dr” still hold in Australia? Wasn’t sure, hence the title I gave him.

    Brian has a PhD as well as being a NSW Neurosurgeon (and De La Salle old boy) where we regard the old reverse snobbery of surgeons being Mr as a major wank – so Dr (or Professor – actually Clinical Professor, which is another bit of subtle hierarchalising) is quite appropriate. I might riff on the Mr bit later.

  2. Will the Barbarians use this as an avenue to discredit white anting from the Pesky Truffle ?
    ACCC boss’ scathing NBN assessment
    APRIL 08, 2019
    ACCC boss Rod Sims has warned that NBN Co is failing to deliver on its promise of delivering faster and affordable broadband, with entry-level NBN plans becoming increasingly more expensive for homes.

    Ten years since its inception the National Broadband Network is yet to be fully rolled out across the country and Mr Sims said that consumers are paying the price for NBN Co’s need to beef up its revenues and deliver a return on the $50 billion invested in the project by the federal government.

    “We are quite possibly charting a course that favours meeting NBN Co’s revenue projections, at the expense of the NBN’s potential to benefit the economy, and consumers,” he said in a speech at the Commsday Summit on Tuesday.

    “Around one in eight NBN fixed-line connections do not come close to providing the full speed of the consumer’s plan.”

  3. Scott says:
    Monday, April 8, 2019 at 6:06 pm
    The libs/nats electric car attack has turn out to be the biggest bite you on the backside blunder in politics , Morrison probably wish he had the guts to ignore the newsltd/corp hacks and called the election yesterday.

    I’ve been busy today and having been able to follow it, though I did expect they were on another hiding to nothing. Scomo’s comment about people needing more grunt was just asking for trouble.

    A friend of mine recently bought himself an electric car and took me for a ride in it. After a few minutes I made the mistake of asking him what its acceleration was like. He planted his foot and I nearly shit myself. It was truly scary. I have never experienced anything like it. Anyone who thinks these cars are for wimps is just displaying incredible ignorance.

  4. Rose Jackson finds the undeserved price for her likely ascension to the NSW LC is vile hacking of her wiki page

    and they say Poll Bludgers have too much time on their hands.

  5. Just on the earlier discussion on some sad PB contributors suffering gout, and the vegan protesters – there is connection.

    Vegans don’t get gout, as it is mostly caused by eating processed meat. As I can attest to. Don’t @ me.

  6. Professor William Mitchell on why Basic Income Guarantees are more appealing to CEOs than a Job Guarantee.

    Under a Job Guarantee approach, the capitalist has to contend with the fact that government jobs may become attractive and be used to pursue community development and green-type ventures and still provide unions with the capacity to develop their memberships.

    The capitalist also has to face the fact that their propensity to create underemployment (to increase profits at a time of deficient total spending) will be severely restricted by the introduction of a Job Guarantee where workers would be able to work full-time (if desired).

    Who would work for a poverty wage in a forced casual job when they can work full-time in a secure job (under the Job Guarantee)? Not too many I would think.

    This is why CEOs and those who favour capitalism and markets want to divert the discussion away from guaranteed employment to BIGs. It is clear as day.

  7. Wow. That Wikipedia page is damning! I am very concerned that Jackson wants “the holocost” to happen again!

  8. A face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll conducted over the weekend of April 6/7, 2019 with 809 Australian electors shows the ALP 52.5% (down 2.5% from before the Federal Budget) lead the L-NP 47.5% (up 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.

    The ALP has a primary vote of 35% (down 1.5%) now just behind the L-NP on 37% (up 2.5%). Support for the Greens is up by 1% to 13.5%.

    Support for the minor parties is led by One Nation on 4% (up 0.5%), ahead of Clive Palmer’s United Australian Party on 1.5% (down 0.5%), Australian Conservatives on 1% (unchanged) and Katter’s Australian Party 0.5% (unchanged). A further 7.5% (down 2%) support Independents and micro parties.

  9. This is an excellent podcast in which Ed Miller of GetUp! interviews Professor Stephanie Kelton, former chief economist to the United States Senate Budget Committee. Stephanie Kelton discusses the nature of government spending and taxation, why it is silly to claim that there is a “debt and deficit” disaster, and the macroeconomic and community and ecological benefits of a federally funded, community-administered Job Guarantee.

  10. Jesus, and she’s a member of the “Hitler faction” of the Communist Party. Named, of course, after Adolf Hitler – someone well known for being a Communist.

  11. You really have to hand it to the Coalition when it comes to brazen chutzpah. Darren Chester was wheeled out today to put the less offensive Nationals face to their full court press to have Melissa Price approve the Adani Carmichael Coal Mine in Central Queensland before the election is called!

    Parliament itself, except for Senate Estimates (and boy do I hope the Department of the Environment is up this week), is not even sitting, so why the Coalition think they can do this and not even be accountable for the decision in Question Time, is beyond belief.

    Darren Chester went on about the jobs, of course, as if no other job can exist in Central Queensland, except for Mining jobs! I’m sure the Tourism sector adjacent to that area and on the coast would like to disagree. Not to mention that there would be so many Renewable Energy jobs that could spring up in that area, massively endowed with beating sunshine on vast flat expanses of country as it is.

    But no, the COALition have to get sneaky, slippery and sleazy on the eve of calling an election where the vast majority of Australians don’t want the damn Adani Mine! Or Clive’s mine next to it, or Gina’s mine right next to that!

    But that’s it, isn’t it? It’s not really the poor benighted workers that the Coalition want to push this thing through on behalf of. That’s just another convenient Liberal lie. No, it’s Gautam, Gina and Clive.

    He who pays the Coalition piper, calls the tune.

  12. Well that Morgan is interesting. It’s a lock at 52.5 ALP for all polls

    That strikes me as about right: real numbers as the poll approaches.

    Labour wins in a canter but no stratospheric bullshit. 55 was just the punters signaling how unimpressed they were that some idiot like Scummo took over from Mal (who was going to lose too, but not by this same margin)

  13. Bevan Shields Twitter:

    An AEC spokesman has defended the sudden removal of a section of its website that said May 18 is the last possible date for an election. They are saying they want to be ‘realists’ and don’t want to confuse voters. They deny anyone from the government asked for it to be removed.

  14. So, is there a reason why the 18th was considered the last possible date, but people are now considering the 25th? Just to do with the time to finalise senate results?

  15. sprocket_ @ #757 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 6:25 pm

    Just on the earlier discussion on some sad PB contributors suffering gout, and the vegan protesters – there is connection.

    Vegans don’t get gout, as it is mostly caused by eating processed meat. As I can attest to. Don’t @ me.

    sprocket, sorry to @ you, whatever that means, but I think I can guess, however I would really like you to inform yourself because, as one type of medical professional I just can’t let that statement go through to the keeper.

    Of course vegans can get Gout! Do they not drink alcohol? That right there is one of the major causative agents for contracting the malady. However, for your edification, and anyone else who is interested, here are the major causative factors, which vegans can certainly be prone to as well:

    Lifestyle triggers of gout:

    Crash diets and fasting
    Drinking too much alcohol
    Eating large portions of certain foods high in purines (red meats or shellfish)
    Dehydration (not getting enough fluids)
    Sweet soft drinks
    Red meat and organ meats (liver, tongue and sweetbreads)
    Shellfish such as shrimp and lobster.
    Refined carbohydrates (white bread, white rice, pasta, sugar)
    Processed foods (chips, snack foods, frozen dinners)


  16. dave @ #769 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 6:51 pm

    Does anyone know if the Adani *approval* requires Bills to pass the Parliament ?

    I would imagine not as Melissa Price approved a mine on the Central Coast of NSW and the first we heard of it was after she had approved it. It certainly didn’t go through parliament.

    As per usual, I’m probably wrong. 😆

  17. someone well known for being a Communist

    Just ask PvO. Nazis are Socialists after all. And every American knows Socialists are Communists. It’s all just word play to confuse good right thinking people that these evil bastards aren’t coming for their guns, utes, daughters, retirement income, etc.

  18. The Drum is actually having a serious discussion about EVs and entertaining Morrison’s lunatic prophesies as though they’re seriously framed.
    This is going to be a tougher gig for Labor to pull off than many here realise.

  19. Does anyone know if the Adani *approval* requires Bills to pass the Parliament ?

    Not following it that closely because the thing isn’t going to happen even if they do approve it, but I think it’s just some signing off of reports etc. Ministerial discretion stuff. No actual bills or even regulations that the Senate could disallow.

  20. C@T – I seem to recall it also needs separate Qld approvals which look harder to get ?

    Something about water requirements ?

  21. sprocket_ @ #758 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 6:25 pm

    Just on the earlier discussion on some sad PB contributors suffering gout, and the vegan protesters – there is connection.

    Vegans don’t get gout, as it is mostly caused by eating processed meat. As I can attest to. Don’t @ me.

    Um. No. Vegans can get gout – there are familial hyperuricaemic syndromes.

  22. The Drum is actually having a serious discussion about EVs and entertaining Morrison’s lunatic prophesies as though they’re seriously framed.


    When someone is making a serious point and trying to be informative, you get a lying lunatic on to screech idiocy. Cause balance.

  23. I’ve just been thinking about those betting odds reported over the last few days. After vague reports of $7.20 payout for the Illiberals, someone finally revealed that that was on Betfair. Now Betfair is not a bookie, it’s a “betting exchange” where people make bids and a bet is made when bids match up. $7.20 for the Illibs means that people are reluctant to back them unless they get a yuuge payout, and/or that those betting against them are so confident they’ll lose that they’re prepared to promise the same yuuge payout. Seems the consensus is they’re dooomed! (For a replay of Tony Burke’s fun at their expense see )

  24. So the coalition govt is set to approve the Adani mine in its dying days? What a shame the Greens spent so much time and effort attacking Labor over Adani and giving the coalition a pass. 🙁

  25. Maybe Labor need to organise a photo op with Bill Shorten and an electric sports car, where they replicate that clip of the Top Gear guy getting his mullet blown off by the powerful acceleration

  26. So the coalition govt is set to approve the Adani mine in its dying days? What a shame the Greens spent so much time and effort attacking Labor over Adani and giving the coalition a pass.

    Don’t worry. They’ll be sure to remind us all that, when you really think about it, it was actually Labor that approved it…

  27. On the Drum tonight, “Vegans are the Hezbollah of culinary cooking” Anthony Bourdain
    I’d update that to ISIS 😡

  28. Let’s be honest. Vegans are far more painful than Gout.

    And announce themselves far sooner too (invariably within 90 seconds of meeting someone).

  29. My election polling theory is that election campaigns have almost no impact on the final outcome. (All the time and money spent is a waste.) Therefore, the current round of polls is the pre-election start point and where the polls will likely end up. The LNP will lose and the ALP will become the government – the only question is whether they are a minority or in their own right. They will not take the Senate and will have to decide between the devils in the cross benches or the deep green sea – and we know how well that worked out in the past.

    Mr Bowe will have a much more nuanced and educated opinion and I look forward to his musings.

  30. ‘Bucephalus says:
    Monday, April 8, 2019 at 7:21 pm

    My election polling theory is that election campaigns have almost no impact on the final outcome.’

    Well, that is definitely a theory, like MMT is a theory.

  31. Re HH @6:29.

    With a sample size of only 809, the margin of error is 3.5%.

    I’d transfer the excess of the Green vote over 10 (i.e. 3.5) to Labor 3.0 LNP 0.5, so we have:

    ALP 38.0, GRN 10, LNP 37.5, OTH 14.5

    What about OTH? It comprises ON 4.0, PLM 1.5, CON 1.0, KAP 0.5 and SE (someone else) 7.5. Count that as an additional 1.5 + 0.5 + 0 + 0.25 + 3.75 to ALP = 6.

    So ALP 2PP = 38 + 8 + 0 + 6 = 52.

    All consistent with ALP 2PP around 52 or 53.

  32. Re powerful acceleration of electric vehicles:

    In the latter part of the 1950s they electrified the Blue Mountains line west of Sydney. It’s very steep and windy and the old steam engines gave a very sedate ride, especially uphill. Then they attached the new electric locomotives to the old lightweight wooden carriages – whoosh!

  33. shiftaling

    Or Morrison being left standing in a cloud of dust as Bill Shorten races off into the horizon/future.

  34. I’m f#cking fed up with tradies in their hilux monster trucks. Going north from Sydney at 3pm on a Friday is a death wish with them all bolting back to their central coast MacMansions.

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