Two post-budget polls are in – Newspoll from The Australian, Ipsos for Nine Newspapers – and they offer contrasting pictures as to whether support for the government has gone up or down in the wake of last week’s budget.
Newspoll produces an encouraging result for the Coalition in showing Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, rather than 54-46. Ordinarily I would point out that a two-point movement from Newspoll is a rare occurrence, which close observers of the polling industry suspect is down to Newspoll smoothing its numbers with some variety of rolling average, in which the results of the previous poll are combined with those of the latest. However, the last Newspoll was, very unusually, four weeks ago, the delay being down to the New South Wales election a fortnight ago and a desire to hold off until the budget last week. So it would not surprise me if things were different this time, and the result was drawn entirely from this week’s survey, which will have been conducted from Thursday to Sunday (UPDATE: as indeed it was, from a sample of 1799).
The report currently up on The Australian’s website is a bit sketchy, but it tells us the Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 38% and Labor is down two to 37%, with One Nation down one to 6%. Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up three to 46% and Bill Shorten’s is up one to 37%, but there is no word yet on disapproval ratings, preferred prime minister, the Greens primary vote and the sample size. The report also rates the budget has scored the highest since the last Howard government budget in 2007 on impact on personal circumstances and cost of living. Stay tuned for further detail.
UPDATE: The Greens primary vote is steady at 9%; Morrison is down two on disapproval to 43%; Shorten is steady on disapproval at 51%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 43-36 to 46-35.
The post-budget Ipsos poll for Nine Newspapers, which is the first since mid-February, records an actual deterioration for the Coalition on the last since last time, albeit that that was an anomalously strong result for the Coalition (the one that had The Australian proclaiming “Morrison’s Tampa moment” across its front page headline). The two-party headline in the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with 51-49 last time, which I’m guessing applies to both respondent-allocated and two-party preferred preference measures since the reports don’t specify. Ipsos’s primary votes are as usual on the low side for the major parties and well on the high side for the Greens: the Coalition are down a point to 37%, Labor is steady on 34% and the Greens are steady on 13%. If it might be thought odd that such small primary vote movement should produce a two-point shift on two-party preferred, it would appear that rounding favoured the Coalition last time and Labor this time.
On the budget, the poll finds 38% expecting they would be better off and 24% saying worse off, which is around the same as last year. Forty-one per cent thought it fair and 29% unfair. Leadership ratings are, as usual, more favourable from Ipsos than other pollsters, but otherwise notable in recording increased uncommitted ratings across the board. Scott Morrison records 48% approval and 38% disapproval, both down one from last time; Bill Shorten is is down four on approval to 36% and one on disapproval to 51%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 48-38 to 46-35.
Reports on the poll, possibly paywalled, can be found at the Sydney Morning Herald and the Financial Review. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.
Election campaigns don’t maybe influence 90% of the voters, but it’s the 10% that counts in campaigning. In fact, it’s less than that when 53% 2PP is a landslide.
“Around one in eight NBN fixed-line connections do not come close to providing the full speed of the consumer’s plan.”
Connected today, promised 48 get 21, maybe it will get better over time?
Well Amanda Vanstone on The Drum delivers another huge dump on Abbott.
Move on Tony your not a team player.
A vegan who gets gout must feel particularly accursed.
Vroom Vroom!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQOQxQjgoI4
Uh Oh
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/ticking-time-bomb-optus-boss-rejects-nbn-write-down-talk-20190408-p51bx7.html
Re powerful acceleration of electric vehicles:
Got a couple of e bikes two weeks ago.
Gee they are good, 4 power settings and even lowest gives big whoosh.
Getting used to it especially on corners so taking it easy.
Great for easing back into getting fit again.
Wooops
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/08/nsw-government-abandoned-land-clearing-investigation-into-company-linked-to-angus-taylor
dave @ #774 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 6:58 pm
Yes, that’s right.
My honest opinion is that the LNP want the approval this week to bash Labor about the head with during the election campaign in the Queensland seats. 🙂
mikehilliard @ #798 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 7:33 pm
Drinking their long necks.
NBN – got connected March 5th. Only signed up for a 12 Mbps plan, and when it’s working the speed is close to that. But from March 18th to last Friday it was intermittent – sometimes short dropouts, sometimes only very short bursts of working and then gorrrn again. Found some Telstra guys working in a pit about March 22-23 and said “are you still servicing the copper?” but apparently the HFC went through there. Whatever they did didn’t fix it. But it has come good since Sat’dy morn. Keeping fingers crossed, and cursing the Illibs for canning the FTTHome plans.
As well as Optus, the ACCC boss attacks the LNP version of the NBN. Even makes top billing in Murdoch media. Not good for Morrison at election time.
In my federal electorate there is an incumbent LNP MP (Jane Prentice) who lost pre-selection to a rival who, like her, was an LNP Brisbane City Councillor before entering federal politics.
In my electorate you see in stark relief the problem of winner-take-all contests for legislative office. Ideally a legislative body would reflect with a high degree of precision the diversity of perspectives and interests within a society. That requires a fully proportional system of election with a very low quota to win one seat.
I think that the constituency work that House of Reps MPs (and their staff) do is valuable, and should be a full-time job in its own right. The role could be called something like Citizens’ Advocate or Local Ombudsman or something like that, and their job would be to be very well-versed in the rules and procedures of the big systems that affect people’s lives, and to help people to navigate those systems and get good outcomes.
Legislators should just focus on legislating. Done right, legislating is a full-time job in itself.
Ministers should be appointed by a majority vote of Parliament, and they should be subject to removal by majority vote of Parliament, and they should come from outside of Parliament, so that they too can focus on their executive role full-time.
Being an MP – and especially being an MP who is also a Minister – involves wearing too many different hats and being too busy to have a healthy work-life balance. That puts many good people off entering politics.
Separate the constituency work, the legislative work, and the executive work into distinct roles.
Rational Leftist @ #787 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 7:15 pm
Actually, they will say Labor didn’t not approve it. If they get into government and don’t can it. 😐
Which is why Bill Shorten constantly makes the point that he will follow the law. So, if it has received legal approval, whether ethical is another thing, he will have to go along with that.
Not that I believe it will ever get to that point.
Nicholas, we share that federal MP.
Rational Leftist @ #786 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 7:15 pm
The Coalition don’t hide their want of coal. Labor on the other hand….
N
Israel has something like it. They have moved steadily further and further to the Right.
I have often wondered. If I was to get gout in my toe, if I had the toe removed would that get rid of the gout or would the crystals just form another toe instead?
When labor gets into power they will cost exactly how much Abbott and Turnbull wasted on the NBN. Malcolm’s reputation will go into a tailspin after that.
PuffyTMD @ #818 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 8:05 pm
I bring bad news.
Boerwar @ #796 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 7:26 pm
This theory is sunk by the Vic state election where lobster guy’s constant whining about
African gangs saw their poll numbers plummet up until election day 😡
antonbruckner11 @ #819 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 8:09 pm
Turnbull’s legacy will be a long list of negatives, with the NBN winning the catastrophe trophy.
Puffy @ 8:05PM. Gout can attack any joint but it’s normally extremities, particularly the big toe. But it commonly attacks knees.
Adani requires Queensland state government approvals. It also requires Federal approval under the EPBC Act.
In making a decision the Minister is required by law to consider matters of National Environmental Significance. These are not some random grab bag. They include impact on species listed as threatened or critically endangered under the Act.
Previous ministerial decisions have been overturned because plaintiffs were able to demonstrate that the Minister has not considered matters that the Minister was supposed to consider under the Act.
I believe, without actually knowing the details, that the Adani mine would destroy a substantial amount of the remaining habitat for an endangered sub species of finch. I am guessing that the habitat offset previously offered by Adani was not secure enough and/or that new scientific information on the finch was made available. If so, the Minister is bound by statute to consider the new information. (I would not give tuppence for Ms Price’s ability to consider anything but she has enormous power in her role as Minister.)
The Minister’s approval is likely to include towards two hundred separate conditions. The problem with those conditions is that there is no-one left in the Federal Environment Department who is available to check whether the conditions are being met. This is a direct result of the then Environment Minister’s (Frydenberg) decision to cut a third of the Environment Department’s staff.
If the Morrison Government wants the Minister to approve the Adani Mine quickly, my guess is that it could do so. The Minister is, in the statutory sense, all powerful here but no doubt Ms Price would be susceptible to Mr Morrison weeping on her shoulder by way of blandishment. The decision might then be challenged in court on the grounds that the Minister did not give sufficient consideration to x, y or z but this would only really happen after the elections.
I assume that the Vic Libs, the inner urb NSW Libs and the Brisbane LNPs don’t want a decision made but that the deep north LNP coalers DO want a positive decision.
I thought I overheard in the news that the Queensland head of the LNP organization wing has threatened to make a public call for Price to be sacked if she does not make a positive decision.
I assume that one reason for the delay in the election date is that they are in deep discord about what to do about Adani (as flagged repeatedly by GG).
Is a gout attack slow to arrive or is it suddenly just there?
Medical word of the day:
Tophus
The collection of uric acid crystals wherever they appear. Very unattractive.
“Is a gout attack slow to arrive or is it suddenly just there?”
Suddenly it’s there. It might develop over a few hours.
PuffyTMD @ #894 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 8:05 pm
Probably Puff. Gout happens when urate crystals form in joint fluid – which usually occurs when the concentration of urate (which is a major byproduct cellular energy systems and protein metabolism) in the joint fluid (or kidneys) exceeds that which the various binding proteins can keep in solution. It’s a dynamic balance, maintained very near equilibrium, so it can go wrong quite quickly. We don’t really know why it happens more in some joints than others.
Boerwar @ #825 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 8:16 pm
Typically sudden. Operative word in the question is ‘attack’.
ItzaDream
Truffles deserves the biggest arse kicking for the NBN. ,$50,000,000,000 down the drain just so he could keep his hopes for getting his arse on the PM’s chair, BUT we should also keep some arse kicking for the $@$@@#@!! who gave him the task to wreck it.
If you want to feel raw power at work, try the electric Shinkansen (bullet trains) in Japan. They really thunder along.
I’ve been driving 4WDs since 1982, and I’m not the slightest bit worried about a target of 50% electric vehicles by 2030. When the best minds on the planet turn their minds to a problem en masse, the capability of technology goes up, and the prices go down. My current laptop has 25,000 times the storage of my first one, and cost a lot less.
Boris @ #807 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 7:40 pm
What’s the maximum wattage motor you can have nowadays?
poroti
50 bill is the least of it.
The long term economic knock on effects are incalculable.
Christian Porter really is desperate to appeal to the far right vote. He says penalties must be increased for vegan protestors. Neo nazis protestors assaulting people and anti abortion protestors trying to close down legal clinics didn’t need this increase, did they Christian?
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/penalties-should-be-increased-for-vegan-protesters-attorney-general-20190408-p51c5b.html
Pedant @ #831 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 8:20 pm
And is getting smaller. They say the two things Kubric got wrong in 2001 were 1) computers getting smaller not larger (though HAL had to be what he be), and 2) hosties uniforms 😉
Agree about the Japan Bullets. The scariest trip I’ve done I think is the Shanghai Maglev. It was tender hooks all the way, thinking how small the margin of error must be. Mind you, hurtling through France on the TGV at full pelt makes for hoping no one puts rocks on the line.
Just been called twice by uComms for a short survey on federal politics. I hung up as I was helping make dinner.
I’m in Swan.
I am wondering who uses uComms?
The bullet train is like sitting in a Ferrari with a loo.
Dragonista was just interviewed on ABC24. She said something verrry interesting. Apparently another reason Morrison didn’t call the election last weekend for May 11 is because the Coalition still have control over their departments until the government goes into Caretaker Mode, SO they have been using that time to get Finance and Treasury and any other appropriate department to cost Labor’s policies. I imagine the Medicare Cancer Care policy being chief among them, so they can attack the guts out of them.
ItzaDream
Yep. Truffles true cost will be over $100 billion.
Itza
“Mind you, hurtling through France on the TGV at full pelt makes for hoping no one puts rocks on the line.”
The French TGV system recently celebrated thirty years of operation still without a single incident, never mind crash or fatality. That is billions of passenger – km of travel without a casualty. Track construction, security and maintenance is excellent. Probably the safest form of motorised travel on the planet.
ItzaDream @ 8.27pm
One of the nice things about travelling in Japan is that you never see signs of vandalism or stupid wilful damage. So you don’t have to worry about rocks on the line.
I did, however, see quite a few electric car charging points, including in some fairly small towns, when I was last in Japan.
We really are living in an alternate reality.
– Greens attacking Labor for approving Adani mine, which is actually set to be approved to proceed by a Liberal govt, thereby wasting years focusing on the wrong enemy of AGW.
– A Liberal govt waging a wind turbine syndrome like attack on electric vehicles, for reasons known only to it, and coming only weeks after several of its front benchers posed with electric vehicles for political pointscoring.
-This whole vegan protest thing, that the federal govt (again for reasons known only to it), has decided to wade into.
Auslandia under Morrison’s Mob truly is bizarro territory of late. Makes you feel like you’re either stumbling around drunk 24/7, or if you’ve passed into the looking glass and are casting furtive glances around at the WTF that confronts you.
Itza and S777
Thanks.
Why the hell would the ABC have Costello commenting on superannuation?
The approach of the Liberal Party was summarised by Hewson
Costello was treasurer for 11 (yes, eleven) long years and where the Nation still suffers
During that 11 years what was done to educate in regards superannuation and what was done to increase the contribution to 12% which Keating described as by 2000?
You need to choose a Fund Manager, where Prospectus are the entry procedure
Those Prospectus describe what they describe including the caveat that past performance is not indicative of future performance (obviously)
Risk is detailed from Cash to Alternatives – including Global assets
No doubt there are under performing Funds
Just as there are under performing football teams
So you need to monitor – year on year and compare
If your Fund is a serial under performer against like risk Funds then shift (noting there are Exit and Entry Fees which should be outlawed given there is an ongoing fee based on the amount accumulated – why?)
So there are questions
And those questions which should be rightly asked and the considerations which should be considered show Costello for what he is – a conceited, political party activist who is also a fool of the first order
Each year Fund Managers forward Annual Accounts, detailing performance
Plus Unit Prices are available on line so you can monitor at your discretion, weekly if you wish
The fact that people do not review is the fault of people
We read the nonsense on house prices – but what about commentary on Superannuation Funds managing your money?
Where is media?
And where is government education – as a subject at school?
I was fortunate firstly because I contributed to a Provident Fund from Day 1 in the work force at 12% of salary then, from 1980 the Contingent Liability on the Balance Sheet saw Agreements to transition to an Accumulation Fund where you could choose your contribution rate, and I then contributed at 15%
So when retiring at 48 in 1993 I had some $500,000- in superannuation (courtesy also of compounding which over time delivers the result)
I did not (and could not) access an Allocated Pension until 2007, so compounding had contributed for a further 14 years post my retirement, the Balance then in excess of $1.2 Million
And, as I have put on here before, in late 2007 I transitioned to 80% Cash (but still lost a bit!) then rebalancing at Equity Market benchmarks starting with the ASX at 3,250 Points
And here we are today, having to review the $1.6 Million cap (also for my wife’s account)
I use various Fund Managers, all internationally reputable (so not Australian Fund Managers)
Could their performances have been better?
No doubt
259 days YTD (so until last Friday), UBS Balanced is a dog and Negative, Vanguard the best Balanced and Conservative performer closely followed by Perpetual, covering the 5% Allocated Pension draw – but overall returning 4.8% YTD so not quite washing the face – but there is still a quarter to go
I would see most risk with self managed due to a lack of diversity
And I have no desire to again analyse Balance Sheets, P&L’s, liquidity ratios and forward projections – happy for others to do so and to pay
The summary is that despite the warts, superannuation works and it works well
But it is not and never will be set and forget
Because nothing in life is set and forget
Everything is predicated on review and management seeking outcomes
Superannuation is no different
Perhaps there should be a subject added to the Year 10 Syllabus
It is that important
And the likes of Costello do not help – they do damage noting he is on a Defined Benefit Scheme so does not live in the real world of risk, risk management and reward – the outcome being (at least) having a sustainable income stream in support of the Pension (which was the objective)
So, why the Clown Prince, Costello?
He just does not have the first clue
Fozzie
Don’t know max wattage but all are restricted to max speed of 25 km, boost cuts out at this speed.
Power is good tho, I’m a fatso and it takes me up hills with easy pedalling, long range too.
S
We loved the TGV except for one thing. So much countryside and so little time to enjoy it.
There has been some reporting about hospitalizations relating to the leckkie bikes.
Socrates @ #840 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 8:33 pm
Absolutely staggering, and now into the UK, Germany, Italy, Spain, Belgium. How did the USA not adopt high speed rail? Lots of reasons no doubt.
Someone who deserves to burn in Hell: https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/murder-suicide-father-in-debt-having-an-affair-with-teenager-coronial-inquest-hears-20190408-p51bzo.html
Itza
Re USA and HSR – politics, and corruptly high costs of rail construction work. For long distance travel (eg LA NY) it is too slow but for big corridors in east and west (eg SF – LA and DC – Boston) HSR would work well in USA. Airlines, car and oil industry all try to block it, and a protected and highly inefficient industry does it no favours.