Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor; Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll and Ipsos offer very mixed signals on the question of whether the government has enjoyed a rarely sighted “budget bounce”.

Two post-budget polls are in – Newspoll from The Australian, Ipsos for Nine Newspapers – and they offer contrasting pictures as to whether support for the government has gone up or down in the wake of last week’s budget.

Newspoll produces an encouraging result for the Coalition in showing Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, rather than 54-46. Ordinarily I would point out that a two-point movement from Newspoll is a rare occurrence, which close observers of the polling industry suspect is down to Newspoll smoothing its numbers with some variety of rolling average, in which the results of the previous poll are combined with those of the latest. However, the last Newspoll was, very unusually, four weeks ago, the delay being down to the New South Wales election a fortnight ago and a desire to hold off until the budget last week. So it would not surprise me if things were different this time, and the result was drawn entirely from this week’s survey, which will have been conducted from Thursday to Sunday (UPDATE: as indeed it was, from a sample of 1799).

The report currently up on The Australian’s website is a bit sketchy, but it tells us the Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 38% and Labor is down two to 37%, with One Nation down one to 6%. Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up three to 46% and Bill Shorten’s is up one to 37%, but there is no word yet on disapproval ratings, preferred prime minister, the Greens primary vote and the sample size. The report also rates the budget has scored the highest since the last Howard government budget in 2007 on impact on personal circumstances and cost of living. Stay tuned for further detail.

UPDATE: The Greens primary vote is steady at 9%; Morrison is down two on disapproval to 43%; Shorten is steady on disapproval at 51%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 43-36 to 46-35.

The post-budget Ipsos poll for Nine Newspapers, which is the first since mid-February, records an actual deterioration for the Coalition on the last since last time, albeit that that was an anomalously strong result for the Coalition (the one that had The Australian proclaiming “Morrison’s Tampa moment” across its front page headline). The two-party headline in the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with 51-49 last time, which I’m guessing applies to both respondent-allocated and two-party preferred preference measures since the reports don’t specify. Ipsos’s primary votes are as usual on the low side for the major parties and well on the high side for the Greens: the Coalition are down a point to 37%, Labor is steady on 34% and the Greens are steady on 13%. If it might be thought odd that such small primary vote movement should produce a two-point shift on two-party preferred, it would appear that rounding favoured the Coalition last time and Labor this time.

On the budget, the poll finds 38% expecting they would be better off and 24% saying worse off, which is around the same as last year. Forty-one per cent thought it fair and 29% unfair. Leadership ratings are, as usual, more favourable from Ipsos than other pollsters, but otherwise notable in recording increased uncommitted ratings across the board. Scott Morrison records 48% approval and 38% disapproval, both down one from last time; Bill Shorten is is down four on approval to 36% and one on disapproval to 51%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 48-38 to 46-35.

Reports on the poll, possibly paywalled, can be found at the Sydney Morning Herald and the Financial Review. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

944 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor; Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. After Shorten’s Budget reply Richo said Morrison ‘Would be an absolute mug” if he did not call an election before Estimates . Good to see Morrison living up to ‘expectations’.

  2. From previous thread:

    I think the Fourth Estate will “do a Daley” on Labor – they’ll nitpick every single thing Shorten says, every single thing he does, and eventually find something they can whip up into frothy, anti-Labor headlines. Which they’ll then run variants of every day for the week leading up to Election Day, while running their tame spiv “journalists” as talking-heads on every TV show they can to repeat them ad nauseum. Every effort Labor makes to present their side, or change the topic to policy, will be flat-out ignored at best, or misrepresented at worst (“They refused to answer our questions” style). The hatchet-jobs (yes, plural) on Clinton in 2016 were a preview of this.

    By Election Day, the electorate – comprised of chancers, spivs and sheep as it is – will buy fully into the rhetoric and stampede for the Coalition. Two days after Election Day, Murdoch will call Scummo and demand both legislation favouring NewsCorpse interests, and more money for his adroit job in public manipulation, which Scummo will give gladly.

    My take: Next poll will be 52/48 for Labor.

    Looks like I was off about that – it’s 53/47!

  3. BK I don’t like to correct you but it strikes me as very unlikely they will be trying to come up with new slogans. They are much more likely to scour the internet for old slogans once used by other failed conservative governments.
    _____
    That’s a valid point you make d-money.

  4. Well thats not the bounce in the polls that Morrison would have been hoping for from tonights polls. I wonder if Newspoll will bear similarly dismal results for the Coalition.

    Looks like not calling the election today was a good call with this result

  5. Poroti

    Richo also said Scotty would be ‘a dill’ if he waited any longer. Which explains why he is waiting.

  6. The wheels on the bus go round and round,
    round and round,
    round and round.
    The wheels on the bus go round and round,
    all through the town.

    The Scomo on the bus goes wah wah wah
    wah, wah, wah
    wah, wah, wah
    The Scomo on the bus goes wah wah wah
    all through the town.

  7. Oops – missed the new thread. Anyway:
    It is possible that Morrisson has made a mistake by drawing out the call to the polls. All over the MSM & internet is the idea that he is doing it solely to spend lots & lots of our taxes just to promote the LNP.
    Most people will not appreciate that. They just may change their minds about voting LNP.

  8. Everybody knows that this govt has done all it is every gonna do (whatever that is). So the only reason it could be waiting around right now is political game playing. Bad move. Further, Scottie hasn’t even bothered to explain why he’s farting around spending out money. Another bad move.

  9. Last time The Australian was all over the Ipsos poll result of 51/49.
    It will be crickets tomorrow with them and Sky After Dark tonight no doubt.

  10. I thought that, last time, Ipsos had some pretty dodgy numbers for the younger cohorts. Have we got that breakdown yet?

  11. so newspoll to be 54/46 do you think? I’ll stick with 53/47, a 15-20 seat majority will do.

    I wonder how PHON has fared – I actually thought the lib primary might go up as a result of the PHON vote falling, but maybe they’ve all gone to the shooters and rooters, other RWNJ or indie.

    one thing looks certain – the LNP’s prospects can be described by one short and very rude word.

    sorry to have doubted earlier in the week – the media bias on the budget had me worried they’d do a howard and buy enough votes, but labor has upped their bid and looks like the better economic manager. The LNP cannot understand why so many voters favour closing tax loopholes and boosting wages and tax cuts for low and middle income earners. & They also still don’t get the climate change baseball bats that are out for them – labor can win a lot of outer burb seats by appealing to parents with kids under 18 y.o.

    5 more weeks –

  12. It is quite funny all the absolute statements coming from the IPSOS figures.

    Unlike the budget, it’s one thing guaranteed to bounce, the only uncertainty is which way.

  13. Adding to J341983 (can I call you J3?) ‘s post:

    …which was down a per centage or so on previous elections. Bludgertrack points to a similar decline federally.

    The massive youths enrolled do not seem to be influencing the Green vote.

  14. I noticed the Oz hasnt been quick to report on Ipsos as they were last time when they were wetting themselves at 51-49

  15. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, April 7, 2019 at 6:47 pm

    The wheels on the bus go round and round,
    round and round,
    round and round.
    The wheels on the bus go round and round,
    all through the town.
    _____________________
    Must be sing-a-long day in the Nursing Home.

  16. BK says:
    Sunday, April 7, 2019 at 6:52 pm

    Last time The Australian was all over the Ipsos poll result of 51/49.
    It will be crickets tomorrow with them and Sky After Dark tonight no doubt.

    I think that will depend on NewsPoll.

    If it’s worse than IPSOS they might go with IPSOS again. 🙂

  17. BK is on the money, the Ipsos seems to be the usual noise from a single poll.

    It does not change the slow trend back to the Government after the blow out from the Turnbull removal last year. A trend that is not enough for Labor to lose without an exogenous shock to normal political events.

  18. The margin of error for a well conducted poll with a sample size of 1,200 is 2.9%. So a change from 51-49 to 53-47 might not mean much.

    Still, I’ll take it. The previous result might be the outlier.

  19. @Nath: Lift your game, please. Quoting one verse of a two-verse satire of Morriscum only makes you look dishonest. (Though it’s good experience for being part of the CPG!)

    …oh, wait.

  20. Here it seems the two major parties vote is just scraping 71%, plus 13% for Greens, leaves 16% other or don’t know.

    I sense this election may see the lowest PV for the two major parties in recent elections, which have themselves had some record low PVs for the two majors. Given some of the BS HTV and voting stories that seem to be doing the rounds, perhaps a high informal vote too.

    Whatever your partisanship, contemplating where and to who those other votes may go is perhaps worth considering I think.

  21. Steve777 says:
    Sunday, April 7, 2019 at 6:59 pm

    The margin of error for a well conducted poll with a sample size of 1,200 is 2.9%. So a change from 51-49 to 53-47 might not mean much.

    Still, I’ll take it. The previous result might be the outlier.

    Or, IPSOS is a pile of shit which doesn’t seem to meet the requirement of “a well conducted poll”.

  22. The constitutional quirk that Anthony Green points out is a wet dream for many political tragics. Not that anyone hear would fit that description.

  23. The constitutional quirk that Anthony Green points out is a wet dream for many political tragics. Not that anyone hear would fit that description.

  24. Sky are obsessed by electric cars. Peta Credlin has been banging on about them, Alan Jones has been banging on about them and I flick over just now and am greeted by Chris Kenny banging on about electric cars. All seem to indicate this exciting topic will be on high rotation for them.

  25. Hopefully there will be a week discussing the terrible waste of public moneys on LNP advertising.

    A suitable expression of this incompetent and cynically corrupt Government.

  26. “Last time The Australian was all over the Ipsos poll result of 51/49”
    Not just the Murdoch mob, the ABC couldn’t contain its glee at the 51-49 result.

  27. It’s time for fixed election dates and an end to the rort that is taxpayer funded advertising for government propaganda in the lead up to an election. C’mon Bill let’s work together to fix this.— Richard Di Natale (@RichardDiNatale) April 7, 2019

  28. https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/04/07/ipsos-53-47-labor-6/#comment-3120790

    States deciding on their own to issue Senate writs could get quite messy. Firstly, if they issue them on a day and the Commonwealth does not issue them that day, the close of rolls being fixed to the issuing of the writs, would mean the House of Reps could not have the same electoral roll as the Senate in the relevant state (meaning double rolls, even if they are on the same day).

    Secondly, states may decide on different days and thus prevent fully simultaneous elections.

    All in all, independent state decisions would increase the chances of a House and territories` senators only election later in the year, with Commonwealth Coalition blaming the state(s) and most other people blaming Morrison.

  29. Looks like most TV news is running with the govt advertising story.

    Whether previous govts did it or not, chucking it in the face of electors who haven’t had a pay rise in years (and welfare recipients having to fight for every cent) it will resonate

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