Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor; Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll and Ipsos offer very mixed signals on the question of whether the government has enjoyed a rarely sighted “budget bounce”.

Two post-budget polls are in – Newspoll from The Australian, Ipsos for Nine Newspapers – and they offer contrasting pictures as to whether support for the government has gone up or down in the wake of last week’s budget.

Newspoll produces an encouraging result for the Coalition in showing Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, rather than 54-46. Ordinarily I would point out that a two-point movement from Newspoll is a rare occurrence, which close observers of the polling industry suspect is down to Newspoll smoothing its numbers with some variety of rolling average, in which the results of the previous poll are combined with those of the latest. However, the last Newspoll was, very unusually, four weeks ago, the delay being down to the New South Wales election a fortnight ago and a desire to hold off until the budget last week. So it would not surprise me if things were different this time, and the result was drawn entirely from this week’s survey, which will have been conducted from Thursday to Sunday (UPDATE: as indeed it was, from a sample of 1799).

The report currently up on The Australian’s website is a bit sketchy, but it tells us the Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 38% and Labor is down two to 37%, with One Nation down one to 6%. Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up three to 46% and Bill Shorten’s is up one to 37%, but there is no word yet on disapproval ratings, preferred prime minister, the Greens primary vote and the sample size. The report also rates the budget has scored the highest since the last Howard government budget in 2007 on impact on personal circumstances and cost of living. Stay tuned for further detail.

UPDATE: The Greens primary vote is steady at 9%; Morrison is down two on disapproval to 43%; Shorten is steady on disapproval at 51%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 43-36 to 46-35.

The post-budget Ipsos poll for Nine Newspapers, which is the first since mid-February, records an actual deterioration for the Coalition on the last since last time, albeit that that was an anomalously strong result for the Coalition (the one that had The Australian proclaiming “Morrison’s Tampa moment” across its front page headline). The two-party headline in the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with 51-49 last time, which I’m guessing applies to both respondent-allocated and two-party preferred preference measures since the reports don’t specify. Ipsos’s primary votes are as usual on the low side for the major parties and well on the high side for the Greens: the Coalition are down a point to 37%, Labor is steady on 34% and the Greens are steady on 13%. If it might be thought odd that such small primary vote movement should produce a two-point shift on two-party preferred, it would appear that rounding favoured the Coalition last time and Labor this time.

On the budget, the poll finds 38% expecting they would be better off and 24% saying worse off, which is around the same as last year. Forty-one per cent thought it fair and 29% unfair. Leadership ratings are, as usual, more favourable from Ipsos than other pollsters, but otherwise notable in recording increased uncommitted ratings across the board. Scott Morrison records 48% approval and 38% disapproval, both down one from last time; Bill Shorten is is down four on approval to 36% and one on disapproval to 51%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 48-38 to 46-35.

Reports on the poll, possibly paywalled, can be found at the Sydney Morning Herald and the Financial Review. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

944 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor; Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 19
1 … 4 5 6 … 19

  1. Good lord… can people calm down?!

    Boycotting places based on free newspapers too much? I was initially thinking of picket lines.

  2. After trying those so called Australian links, I think they may have been fake – they led to very strange looking 404 pages although they looked OK of the face of it.

  3. I’m waiting on GhostWhoVotes or William to tell us what the Newspoll is. Settle kiddies; no need for panic even it is 52-48.

  5. Nath “He could cost the ALP government. The people don’t like him, don’t trust him.”

    Lol!!! This sort of argument has been dead as a dodo since Abbott was elected.

    This proved definitively that personality doesn’t matter if the Government is on the nose.

    Give it up ya drongo

  11. The following picked 52/48.

    Bennelong Lurker
    BK
    Confessions
    Dave from Wagga
    It’s Time
    j341983
    JohnCee
    Marcos De Feilittt
    Matt
    MM
    Outsider
    Steve777
    Vanessa Muller *but want 53/47

  12. Those very strange 404 pages are normal at The Australian. James Jeffrey writes them.

    I believe someone has stuffed up and put the article out an hour early because of daylight savings, then quickly deleted it. Or perhaps the Google snippet has gone through an hour early for that reason without the link having been live yet at all.

    As for “four point turnaround” it sounds like it means 48-52 but that’s not the only possible meaning.

  13. LR
    no result yet so please change my newspoll pick to 52-48.
    Essential 56-44.
    And I will have a quiet word with my manicurist about the newspapers they stock.

  14. Ipsos polls since the last Federal election:
    24-26 Nov 2016: 51% ALP
    22-25 March 2017: 55% ALP
    10-11 May: 53% ALP
    6-9 Sept: 53% ALP
    3-5 April 2018: 52% ALP
    10-12 May: 54% ALP
    21-24 June: 53% ALP
    15-18 Aug: 55% ALP
    12-15 Sept: 53% ALP
    10-13 Oct: 55% ALP
    15-17 Nov: 52% ALP
    13-15 Dec: 54% ALP
    Feb 2019: 51% ALP
    April 7: 53% ALP
    PREDICTION:
    Next Ipsos poll: 51% ALP!

  15. Suspect the Newspoll perhaps not good for the government as a “rape allegation” tweet has appeared under the #Newspoll tag in Twitter.

  17. I read a quote today that Morrison said “The choice is clear: It is a choice between Bill Shorten and I”

    just on the basis of grammar, this bloke doesn’t deserve to be PM.

  19. Suspect the Newspoll perhaps not good for the government as a “rape allegation” tweet has appeared under the #Newspoll tag in Twitter.

    They pulled it quick. Not sure who. Maybe twitter is getting its act together?

  20. Kevin Bonham @ #212 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 9:15 pm

    Those very strange 404 pages are normal at The Australian. James Jeffrey writes them.

    I believe someone has stuffed up and put the article out an hour early because of daylight savings, then quickly deleted it. Or perhaps the Google snippet has gone through an hour early for that reason without the link having been live yet at all.

    As for “four point turnaround” it sounds like it means 48-52 but that’s not the only possible meaning.

    Thanks for the clarification Kevin. I must say those 404 messages look highly unprofessional for a “journal of record”.

  21. Simon² Katich® @ #213 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 9:15 pm

    LR
    no result yet so please change my newspoll pick to 52-48.
    Essential 56-44.
    And I will have a quiet word with my manicurist about the newspapers they stock.

    I think I may have to close the guessing. 🙁
    But are you now mortal again, no longer eternal?

  23. Will be interesting to see the PHoN vote, whether the gun scandal caused some of their softees returning to Coalition

  25. But are you now mortal again, no longer eternal?

    Nah. Keep me at 56-44. It feels right. The only poll that counts will be vindication.

  29. I read a quote today that Morrison said “The choice is clear: It is a choice between Bill Shorten and I”

    Almost like it’s a test of his leadership…

  31. Roger. That probably depends on how much money News Ltd wants to spend. It was interesting that last Sunday they tweeted that one reason for not polling then was budgetary reasons.

  41. OK – Here is all the guesses…

    PB-Guess: Newspoll 2019-04-07
    Actual: ALP 52 to 48 LNP
    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    PB mode: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 53.5 to 46.5 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 76

    ALP / LNP
    54 / 46 (?)andy Murray
    53 / 47 a r *until the election
    53 / 47 Al Pal
    53 / 47 Andrew_Earlwood
    53 / 47 beguiledagain
    52 / 48 Bennelong Lurker
    56 / 44 bilko
    52 / 48 BK
    53 / 47 booleanbach
    54 / 46 briefly
    55 / 45 bug1
    53 / 47 chinda63
    53 / 47 Clem Attlee
    52 / 48 Confessions
    55 / 45 d-money
    60 / 40 Dan Gulberry *permanent
    52 / 48 Dave from Wagga
    54 / 46 Davidwh
    54 / 46 EB *permanent
    54 / 46 Fozzie Logic *permanent
    53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
    54 / 46 Fulvio Sammut
    55 / 45 Gecko
    53 / 47 Goll
    54 / 46 grimace
    54 / 46 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    55 / 45 HaveAchat
    53 / 47 imacca
    52 / 48 It’s Time
    54 / 46 ItzaDream
    52 / 48 j341983
    54 / 46 John Reidy
    52 / 48 JohnCee
    57 / 43 KayJay *all next polls
    54 / 46 Kevjohnno
    54 / 46 klasib
    53 / 47 Late Riser
    53 / 47 lefty e
    52 / 48 Marcos De Feilittt
    52 / 48 Matt
    53 / 47 Matt31
    53 / 47 Mavis Davis
    53 / 47 max
    50 / 50 mikehilliard
    52 / 48 MM
    54 / 46 Mr Ed
    56 / 44 OH
    52 / 48 Outsider
    55 / 45 pica
    53 / 47 Player One
    53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
    55 / 45 Question *until the election
    53 / 47 Red13
    54 / 46 rhwombat
    54 / 46 Roger Miller
    56 / 44 Scott
    51 / 49 Sgh1969
    56 / 44 Simon² Katich® *eternal
    54 / 46 Sprocket_
    54 / 46 Socrates
    54 / 46 Sohar
    53 / 47 sonar *permanent
    53 / 47 steve davis
    52 / 48 Steve777
    53 / 47 sustainable future
    55 / 45 swamprat
    53 / 47 Terminator
    53 / 47 The Silver Bodgie
    55 / 45 Tom
    53 / 47 Tricot *any polls
    52 / 48 Vanessa Muller *want 53/47
    53 / 47 Victoria
    54 / 46 Whisper
    53 / 47 Work To Rule
    53 / 47 Yabba
    51 / 49 Zoidlord

  45. 52-48

    #BREAKING: The Coalition has moved to within striking distance of Labor with a surge in support following the budget theaustralian.com.au/nation/politic… #auspol #Newspoll

  47. GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    2m2 minutes ago

    #Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 (+2) ALP 52 (-2) #auspol

Comments Page 5 of 19
1 … 4 5 6 … 19

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *