Two post-budget polls are in – Newspoll from The Australian, Ipsos for Nine Newspapers – and they offer contrasting pictures as to whether support for the government has gone up or down in the wake of last week’s budget.
Newspoll produces an encouraging result for the Coalition in showing Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, rather than 54-46. Ordinarily I would point out that a two-point movement from Newspoll is a rare occurrence, which close observers of the polling industry suspect is down to Newspoll smoothing its numbers with some variety of rolling average, in which the results of the previous poll are combined with those of the latest. However, the last Newspoll was, very unusually, four weeks ago, the delay being down to the New South Wales election a fortnight ago and a desire to hold off until the budget last week. So it would not surprise me if things were different this time, and the result was drawn entirely from this week’s survey, which will have been conducted from Thursday to Sunday (UPDATE: as indeed it was, from a sample of 1799).
The report currently up on The Australian’s website is a bit sketchy, but it tells us the Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 38% and Labor is down two to 37%, with One Nation down one to 6%. Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up three to 46% and Bill Shorten’s is up one to 37%, but there is no word yet on disapproval ratings, preferred prime minister, the Greens primary vote and the sample size. The report also rates the budget has scored the highest since the last Howard government budget in 2007 on impact on personal circumstances and cost of living. Stay tuned for further detail.
UPDATE: The Greens primary vote is steady at 9%; Morrison is down two on disapproval to 43%; Shorten is steady on disapproval at 51%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 43-36 to 46-35.
The post-budget Ipsos poll for Nine Newspapers, which is the first since mid-February, records an actual deterioration for the Coalition on the last since last time, albeit that that was an anomalously strong result for the Coalition (the one that had The Australian proclaiming “Morrison’s Tampa moment” across its front page headline). The two-party headline in the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with 51-49 last time, which I’m guessing applies to both respondent-allocated and two-party preferred preference measures since the reports don’t specify. Ipsos’s primary votes are as usual on the low side for the major parties and well on the high side for the Greens: the Coalition are down a point to 37%, Labor is steady on 34% and the Greens are steady on 13%. If it might be thought odd that such small primary vote movement should produce a two-point shift on two-party preferred, it would appear that rounding favoured the Coalition last time and Labor this time.
On the budget, the poll finds 38% expecting they would be better off and 24% saying worse off, which is around the same as last year. Forty-one per cent thought it fair and 29% unfair. Leadership ratings are, as usual, more favourable from Ipsos than other pollsters, but otherwise notable in recording increased uncommitted ratings across the board. Scott Morrison records 48% approval and 38% disapproval, both down one from last time; Bill Shorten is is down four on approval to 36% and one on disapproval to 51%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 48-38 to 46-35.
Reports on the poll, possibly paywalled, can be found at the Sydney Morning Herald and the Financial Review. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.
Isn’t it about time someone asked Morrison if he believes we’re in the “end times” and is looking forward to “the rapture”? cos his policies sure look like he does.
All very well to say his religious views aren’t relevant – his religion sees life on Earth as a waiting room – no wonder he mocks action to ameliorate global warming – he and his will be in heaven by then leaving the rest of us to burn.
Yep he believes all non Christians deserve to burn in hell.
Irrelevant? I don’t think so and yet the MSM won’t go there. Why?
😡
my fam all live in the shire and they all think scotty’s a GOOSE 😀
I doubt that the car thing will hit as much as they think it will. It’s kind of preaching to the choir. Not to mention that this kind of hysterical mudslinging is typical of a Government that knows, deep down, it is going to lose power. Just remember all the predictions of the sky falling in 2007. Same is going to be happening this election. They don’t go down without a fight.
About 90% of new vehicles sold in Australia are 4 cylinder engined.
So much for the desire for grunt!
In terms of EVs and towing, I gather that actually towing weights would be OK with regenerative braking in place, as the weight and momentum of any vehicle is captured for recharging down hill or braking, whilst expended uphill and along the flatter parts.
EV technology will probably be transformative.
Seems the potential in regard to getting about and having renewable power sources across the country could make getting about actually a lot cheaper than it currently is in rural areas.
What is the cost of fuel in all these remote parts of the country?
Would a bunch of solar panels and battery recharge roadhouse be any more expensive, or perhaps even cheaper than the same thing near a city?
I imagine a series of renewable projects, storage facilities and charging points across rural areas could transform the costs for getting about for EV owners.
Though it would take some vision and application which are sadly lacking in Auspol mostly.
Greens of course have a plan including charging infrastructure and 100% EV sales by 2030, to match the Netherlands and India ambitions.
If a vast nation such as India, with far lower income per person and millions in poverty or wthout any regular power can have a go, why not supposedly educated smart Australia?
Farmers could cover their shed in panels, as many have, with EV tractors and other vehicles also coming. If the idiots weren’t so blind and ignorant, they could realise they could probably save themselves some $ and not be dependent upon dirty diesel (subsidised) and oil from OS as well.
No grunt he reckons.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gFGX43vubM
PuffyTMD @ #592 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 12:48 pm
I’m sure the ABC will even up the factchecks.
This fact check isn’t a good look for Bill Shorten though.
The good old Liberals fighting the future on display again- this time electric vehicles…We can’t replace coal, we cant replace fossil fuel engines, we cant replace copper phone line, we cant have electric vehicles…There slogan should be WE CANT…
Scott Morrison rides another unicorn!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1115089392861712385
Was that the factcheck where they believed it wasn’t cut funding because it was labelled as an efficiency dividend? #theirABC is well cooked
A midrange Tesla will do 0-100 in ~5 seconds in the rain.
https://youtu.be/ggn2JCrJlS4
The EV politics won’t change anyones votes I don’t think.
Murdoch’s Australian opinion writers should take a look at some Fox News articles on EVs. So should Morrison.
These are some articles on the Fox News website (search “electric vehicles” click “advanced search”). For example, I think the Ford F150 is similar to the Toyota Hilux?
Who today gives a political ‘hoot’ about EVs 10 year from now? Where is the dissection of Labor’s policies in the MSM? Policies on
cancer
TAFE
climate
etc.
EVs are an entertaining distraction. (Shorten on ABC atm.)
I recall a Tesla claim that their electric semi could tow a conventional semi of equal weight, up a steep incline, while it attempted to drive down it.
Makes sense with the absolutely insane level and flatness of torque electric motors have.
Even their new Roadster: “Tesla stated that the torque at wheels was 10,000 N⋅m (7,400 lb⋅ft).”
Scott Morrison and the Libs first Election Ad.
The Labor press conference head nodder is distracting.
GG:
That’s brilliant! 😆
Shorten’s frustration is apparent.
Seems the splurge is set to continue 😡
Bill Shorten “WANTS fossil fuels as part of our energy mix”
“We won’t be tearing up any (Adani) contracts” – says Bill.
CFMMEU happy.
Shorten on EVs now…
KK is funny 😆
ABC cut KK off 🙁
C@t
I was given this book by Bob Roth in 1965. It convinced me to take up TM then, and have continued for the 54 years until now. If I had bought it, it would have cost me $1.50.
https://www.amazon.com/Stillness-Strength-Contemplative-Meditation-Incorporated/dp/B0075TYT88
We are having a celebratory drinks with David M on 13 April. We managed a swing of nearly 6%. I think Liesl did nearly as well, but Terrigal went backwards a little. Do you have a feel for how the Wicks weasel will go?
Rex Bill Shorten “WANTS fossil fuels as part of our energy mix”
Unless you want to ban the use of coal and petroleum from today, it is for the time being, whether we want it or nor, a fraction that needs to be managed downwards to near zero over the next few decades. This is something that a Coalition Government can’t or won’t do. Greens won’t be in Government, so Labor’s the only hope.
Steve777 @ #625 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 1:38 pm
You just can’t trus t Labor, or L/NP, on the environment. They’re proven polluters over many, many decades.
Wonderful pic.
Bludgers
I sent Ross Gittins article to QandA and suggested they question Frydenberg on the content.
Have just received tweet asking if I’d like to send in a question for them,.
Any suggestions, plse? My befuddled brain not coming up with anything concrete.
An assistant secretary for the Department of Parliamentary Services retired from the public service on Friday following the bungled security upgrade to Parliament House, while two other senior employees have taken personal leave.
Appearing before the Senate Estimates hearing on Monday, Secretary of the Department of Parliamentary Services Rob Stefanic said he had held senior meetings with officials from the department and Lend Lease following media reports that alleged a subcontracting firm hired for the works was on the verge of collapse amid salacious claims involving drug use and debts to foreigners.
Mr Stefanic said all parties confirmed to him that they had no prior knowledge of the allegations surrounding the firm Steelvision and its senior management. Steelvision, a Victorian-based blast proof specialist firm, recently was recommended to be tipped into receivership after encountering trouble during a $75 million upgrade to security facilities at Parliament House.
Steelvision was subcontracted through Lend Lease, which won the tender for the works, for a $14 million job related to the upgrading of the marble entrances of parliament to protect MPs from acts of terrorism. However, a significant amount of the company’s work was found to be defective at the same time suppliers were failing to be paid.
The government and Lend Lease formally excluded Steelvision from the project in January 2019.
Mr Stefanic said Steelvision’s owner, David Gooley, only entered parliament on “a small number of occasions” and was “required to be escorted by a pass holder at all times” when on site.
He also said DPS had conducted 108 random alcohol and drug test, all of which had returned negative results.
However, the bungled upgrades have preceded the retirement of Paul Cooper, the first assistant secretary of DPS’ building and security division.
Mr Stefanic said Mr Cooper “retired and ended his service with the commonwealth on fifth of April 2019”, on Friday last week. “I wish to formally record my thanks for him,” Mr Stefanic said.
Michael Healy, the assistant secretary of capital works program, and Graham Anderson, the head of DPS’s security branch Graeme Anderson, have also taken personal leave.
“There are no senior executive officers within the organisation under investigation,” Mr Stefanic said.
Labor Senator Kimberley Kitching said the opposition had asked DPS who would be appearing from DPS at senate estimates last Monday.
“There was no response. Not even ‘no, They’re not going to attend,” she said.
Mr Stefanic said DPS answered through the committee secretariat. “They were told that you weren’t planning on responding,” Ms Kitching said.
Mr Stefanic confirmed that DPS was told in May last year of “performance issues” associated with Steelvision and learned in June 2018 of issues with supplier payments.
The new entrances on the Senate and the House of Representatives sides of the building were meant to be finished in July 2018, and were now on track to be completed by October this year.
Mr Gooley last month told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age he was “no saint” and admitted to “personal vices” but denied doing drugs at work.
Don’t forget Dee Madigan’s tweet last week about two Liberal pollies overheard talking at the airport saying “what we’ve got to do is work out how to sell the budget to Joe Goose – that’s what I call the dickheads in the suburbs. He doesn’t understand the deficit. Talk to him about cars…….”
Did Madigan name names?
FS,
Not yet!
yabba @ #625 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 1:38 pm
I do, yabba. Lucy Wicks is a feral animal in a shiny happy person’s clothing! She has some of the nastiest, dirty double-dealing people working for her that you will find in all of Australian politics!
She has already nicked Labor’s Commuter Car Parks policy and re-badged it as her own and demanded front page coverage for herself in the local papers but no doubt she has more of the nasty stuff up her Laura Ashleyesque sleeve for when the campaign proper is called and we get off and running. Not to mention every available electronic billboard site in the electorate bought and paid for to televise her beaming visage, as if butter wouldn’t melt in her mouth.
You guys are so lucky to ‘only’ have Jilly Pillon to run against. She’s not totally up to speed with Machiavellian political manouevers yet.
Steve777 @ #627 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 1:38 pm
I’m down with that. The world deserves nothing less.
I can imagine how she feels!
The Newspoll result has had a big effect at SportsBet.
Labor has blown out from $1.14 to $1.15!
Rex
Scott will have to increase the numbers in his stormtrooper escort.
PAUL Murray not too impressed with Scott delaying election so he can milk taxpayers more… he’s over it!
https://publish.twitter.com/?query=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FSkyNewsAust%2Fstatus%2F1114860761828872192&widget=Tweet
Scott has real problems when Sky doesn’t believe him.
BH
I’d try
“The Government has a target of Revenue/GDP of 23.9% and a plan to run surpluses each year. However, expenses are currently 25.1% of GDP (Budget page 10-15). What services is the Government planning to cut in order to bring expenses under revenue, and so create a surplus?”
C@tmomma @ #635 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 2:04 pm
I am pretty sure that they have given up hope in Dobell. At my booth the Libs could only manage to supply a single young lib, who was a naive happy clapper, and it is plain that they are struggling with arousing any interest. Their shop front was about five doors up the main road in The Entrance opposite the main early voting centre, and it was obvious that they had almost no visitors, with vast numbers of corflutes still stacked against the walls on election day eve when I turned up to collect my supplies from our office. They didn’t manage to get bunting up at all at the three biggest booths around here. We covered about 40 metres of the various school fences.
Does anyone else get the sense that ScuMo is rehearsing to get a late nigh spot on Sky when he retires from politics in a few months time?
Every presser he does has the subtext “I’m a bigger ocker dickhead than Paul Murray. I’ll just say whatever crap comes out of my mouth and fuck off if I’m wrong ’cause I’m never wrong. MAAAAAATE!!!”
‘sgh1969 says:
Monday, April 8, 2019 at 12:24 pm
Question on procedure re Senate for PB
Given a number of Senators finished up ‘officially’ last week in the Senate does that mean that they will not participate in Estimates hearings this week?
I was thinking it would be great to see ‘Dougie’ Cameron in action for the last time.’
They are still senators. No election has been called. They won’t leave until the end of their terms.
https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6022798258001
Anyone know why they build robots with 5 fingers – is it the optimal number of flexible digits or is there something better they are just not telling us about. I would prefer seven myself because i could then invent a computer game controller with a lot more functionality.
Octopi have eight, some squid have more.
“Yep he believes all non Christians deserve to burn in hell.
Irrelevant? I don’t think so and yet the MSM won’t go there. Why?”
Kate, i have had much the same thoughts.
That said, to go there now would I think tap into the whole “division” meme. Us / Them based on belief.
With recent happenings would be a bad place to go during an election campaign and the PM of the moment would ruthlessly exploit the “victim” card. ALP will just not want to go there. I dont want to give the bastard ANY manuvering room or ANYTHING he can exploit. We just need him gone.
yabba,
They’ll be more professionally organised for the federal election. We heard tales about the Young Libs being kitted out uniformly in chinos and business shirts with vans that they got around in with their bunting and corflutes and A frames. All supplied by Lucy. They turned up to festoon the school polling places with their bumpf as soon as the school bells went on Friday afternoon! then they stayed there all night to protect their positions. One of our booth workers said they got a look in the back of one of their vans and they saw loads of empty packets of No Doz strewn all over the floor!
You can take it to the bank that they will leave no stone unturned in the federal election.
Rates Analyst
Many thanks. Really good question which I couldn’t have come up with. Have sent it plus one re Gittins article today.
Speaking of what Australians like and dont like: Australians cant stand happy clappies.
Release more footage of ScoMo jumping for Jesus and watch his numbers plummet!!
booleanbach @ #645 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 2:28 pm
Dilbert might have an answer to that one. Reverse anthropomorphism and hubris also spring to mind.