Two post-budget polls are in – Newspoll from The Australian, Ipsos for Nine Newspapers – and they offer contrasting pictures as to whether support for the government has gone up or down in the wake of last week’s budget.
Newspoll produces an encouraging result for the Coalition in showing Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, rather than 54-46. Ordinarily I would point out that a two-point movement from Newspoll is a rare occurrence, which close observers of the polling industry suspect is down to Newspoll smoothing its numbers with some variety of rolling average, in which the results of the previous poll are combined with those of the latest. However, the last Newspoll was, very unusually, four weeks ago, the delay being down to the New South Wales election a fortnight ago and a desire to hold off until the budget last week. So it would not surprise me if things were different this time, and the result was drawn entirely from this week’s survey, which will have been conducted from Thursday to Sunday (UPDATE: as indeed it was, from a sample of 1799).
The report currently up on The Australian’s website is a bit sketchy, but it tells us the Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 38% and Labor is down two to 37%, with One Nation down one to 6%. Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up three to 46% and Bill Shorten’s is up one to 37%, but there is no word yet on disapproval ratings, preferred prime minister, the Greens primary vote and the sample size. The report also rates the budget has scored the highest since the last Howard government budget in 2007 on impact on personal circumstances and cost of living. Stay tuned for further detail.
UPDATE: The Greens primary vote is steady at 9%; Morrison is down two on disapproval to 43%; Shorten is steady on disapproval at 51%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 43-36 to 46-35.
The post-budget Ipsos poll for Nine Newspapers, which is the first since mid-February, records an actual deterioration for the Coalition on the last since last time, albeit that that was an anomalously strong result for the Coalition (the one that had The Australian proclaiming “Morrison’s Tampa moment” across its front page headline). The two-party headline in the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with 51-49 last time, which I’m guessing applies to both respondent-allocated and two-party preferred preference measures since the reports don’t specify. Ipsos’s primary votes are as usual on the low side for the major parties and well on the high side for the Greens: the Coalition are down a point to 37%, Labor is steady on 34% and the Greens are steady on 13%. If it might be thought odd that such small primary vote movement should produce a two-point shift on two-party preferred, it would appear that rounding favoured the Coalition last time and Labor this time.
On the budget, the poll finds 38% expecting they would be better off and 24% saying worse off, which is around the same as last year. Forty-one per cent thought it fair and 29% unfair. Leadership ratings are, as usual, more favourable from Ipsos than other pollsters, but otherwise notable in recording increased uncommitted ratings across the board. Scott Morrison records 48% approval and 38% disapproval, both down one from last time; Bill Shorten is is down four on approval to 36% and one on disapproval to 51%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 48-38 to 46-35.
Reports on the poll, possibly paywalled, can be found at the Sydney Morning Herald and the Financial Review. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.
Speechless. ScoMo knows us so well.
Fess
Trump could be suffering pre dementia. I am inclined to go with drug abuse and stress contributing to his decline.
I’ve always imagined him being whisked away by the people in white……
I think we can all rest safe in the knowledge that if the Libs are drawing their scare campaigns from Alan Jones and Sky, they won’t work. This one is particularly stupid. it won’t work.
Lizzie
Morrison is correct that lots of Australians like cars with a bit of grunt,but many Australians also like cars that are energy efficient.
vic:
If he had an ounce of shame he’d resign and face the music, taking his corrupt crime family with him.
“From the ‘I’m a man and I vote!’ files.”
Maybe the Hun reader forgot that women make up 50.18% of the population.
Rex and Nath seem to have outed themselves as Liberals pretending to be Greens with comments made recently.
Fess
My feeling has been that for quite sometime they have been negotiating a smooth resignation for him. He has so far declined and dug his heels in
Interesting times continue…….
Hey Scrottface. how much do you know about electric vehicles ? For acceleration they will kick your arse. In your price range try a Tesla Roadster 0-100 kmh in 2.0 seconds.’Grunty’ enough for ya ? 😆
Sohar @ #26122 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 11:53 am
The current polls would seem to indicate that at least 46% of the Australian voting population are (or prefer) dickheads.
All these government appointments give the impression of shuffling deck chairs on The Titanic.
Sohar @ #555 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 11:58 am
What comments ???
Paul Syvret (former Murdoch columnist)
2019 the year of The Bogan Tradie Election Campaign , bought to you by the marketing genius Shouty McShoutface and his slave master Rupe.
Vic:
Yes the shit show continues. *sigh*
The problem with the “Bill is going to take our (grunty) cars” is that it is a complete fabrication, with no rebutting narrative.
Ignoring it wont make it go away.
We can’t rely on the MSM journalists to ask Morrison obvious questions like “Aren’t you making up stories – isn’t Labor’s policy to encourage uptake of EVs, just like yours?” because they will just want to encourage conflict to get more hits or viewers.
Clear explanatory ads are required to put it to bed – Now.
Once the hysterical story takes hold it will be impossible to kill.
This writer explains the problem better than I can:
https://jamesclear.com/why-facts-dont-change-minds
Just wait till the Uteboys start sitting in EVs and feeling the acceleration when they put the pedal to the metal. They’ll be instant converts!
The difficulty with ScoMo banging on about the demise of the Hilux is that its the overseas manufactureres that are going to drive this not Govt policy. They are all moving into EV’s and are not going to procuce the vehicles they are now just for the small Australian market. Thats reality.
And as EV / Hybrids become more common on a global scale (lookin at yah China), petrol and diesel is going to become more expensive. Do we want to become reliant on a “niche” fuel that we woul dhave to import?? What do we do when OS refineries we rely on start to reach end of life and are not replaced??
Thats the kind of uncertainty inherent in the “Liberal” vision for this country.
And the Libs killed the car industry here. 🙁
If we are lucky there will be hybrid 4wd’s around built for much larger markets to replace the Hilux but the transition away from petrol and diesel will happpen like it or not. Best to be looking ahead now to Ammonia / Hydrogen / Hybrid / EV’s and adapting existing infrastructure as much as possible to go through that transition.
Teal perhaps Sohar?
They just keep on coming 🙂
Hey ScoMo….this is for you…………
https://performancedrive.com.au/electrified-toyota-hilux-coming-around-2025-part-aggressive-ev-plan-1918/
The obvious rejoinder is certainly something along the lines of “Wasn’t it the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison Government that killed the Commodore?”
Repugs-NRA ‘They is a comin’ to take yer guns’
.
Scrott-Sky “They is a comin’ to take yer utes’
Someone show this to ScoMo
https://thedriven.io/2019/02/26/queenslands-most-popular-ev-charging-locations-revealed-and-theyre-free/
The car scare campaign won’t work because it’s so implausible and easily rebutted, and because it has so little effect on most people.
This idea it’s Shorten’s birthday cake moment is ridiculous – I don’t see many Australians routinely walking into a bakery to buy a Tesla Model S, or a Hilux for that matter. You research before you buy a car, because it’s such a big purchase.
The fact they’re taking their cues from Jones and Sky After Dark is some of the best news for Labor ever. Don’t forget, these are the people who think the Libs are going like busteds because they aren’t right wing enough…
There’s nothing like a Kimdotcom Tweet to brighten up your day:
Kim Dotcom
@KimDotcom
Intellectual starvation is a side effect of consuming news media in New Zealand. The lack of investigative journalism and sophisticated reporting has an impact on the IQ points of Kiwis. Consuming NZ media neuron trash is like injecting your brain with concentrated stupidity.
The same applies to Australia and the world over.
‘Ignoring it wont make it go away.’
Exactly. And it applies not just to the EV stuff.
Labor need to rebut the crap quickly, simply and forcefully.
Preferably by making fun of the idiotic shite that comes out of his face..
caf – very good rejoinder indeed. “We won’t take lectures on car policy from the mob who closed down the Australian car industry.” Love it.
Burgey
I do not think they are taking their cues from Credlin and Jones it is Mordor Media wide and so Coalition wide. More likely the word went out from HQ and the lackeys have all heard their master’s voice.
Kristina Keneally
Verified account @KKeneally
1h1 hour ago
Kristina Keneally Retweeted Tim Beshara
.@JoshFrydenberg crowing about the Liberals’ Climate Solutions Package to his electorate this week – a Package that projects that 50% of new sales by 2030 will be electric
Just like Labor’s target. Wonder if @ScottMorrisonMP and @AngusTaylorMP understand their own policy?
Her Indoors used to work at GMH back in the day. The NSW boss once came to a barbeque at our house in Sydn, just after the new Commodore had been introduced.
Bludgers may remember that this introduction coincided with a huge surge in the price of petrol in, I think, 2003, due to the invasion of Iraq.
The GMH boss, a little the worse for wear after a few beers, told me quietly that “We bet the company on a gas guzzler sedan that you can’t even get into without bumping your head, has pillars that block your view in all directions, and has more plastic in it than a lorry-load of Lego… and we blew it.”
GMH supplied bad cars – whose design was based on the preferences of a few petrol heads, Supercar fanboiz and the Travelling Salesmen demographic – and they paid the price.
No-one in their right mind – no-one not preconditioned to do so anyway – would vote against Labor based on ScoMo’s idiotic scares about confiscating their utes.
Question on procedure re Senate for PB
Given a number of Senators finished up ‘officially’ last week in the Senate does that mean that they will not participate in Estimates hearings this week?
I was thinking it would be great to see ‘Dougie’ Cameron in action for the last time.
David Crowe
Verified account @CroweDM
now
BREAKING: Latest contracts reveal cost to taxpayers from government advertising before election. Tax campaign, small business campaign just two examples.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/taxpayers-bill-for-advertising-hits-136-million-as-scott-morrison-prepares-to-call-an-election-20190408-p51by6.html
if scumo’s line re: EVs works electorally, then all I can say is “God Help Us!” in exactly this tone:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLLN-Yum2wE
he makes abbott look like an intellectual giant.
his own target of 30-50% of new car sales to be EV by 2030. tell him Bill.
caf @ #548 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 11:45 am
The big components in an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) are the engine and drive train. (I’m not a mechanic so please excuse my mis-labelling.) For an EV you replace a single large engine and drive train with four smaller but powerful engines, one per wheel, and you put the battery anywhere you like. Maybe in the caravan you are towing! Think of the extra leg room in your car and power in the caravan. (Caravan/camping sites would have charging facilities.) Could be nice if done well.
BTW, this EV scare is a smoke screen. It panders to Morrison’s Aussie dad image. Smoke blows away.
No matter how much grunt my car might have, it will still take half an hour to drive the 14 km to the start of the M1 Motorway on a weekday afternoon.
A leak from within Coalition Campaign HQ. A sneak look at one of their ads.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGW-WX77zjY
Is that effective, like a bendy bus
Morrison’s EV scare really smacks of him operating under the delusion that his Sutherland Shire seat is representative of mainstream Australia. This is exactly the kind of bullshit that would resonate in The Shire.
Here’s a verbal terrorist imported by fundamentalists to Australia who needs to have his visa cancelled pronto:
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/real-life/news-life/sydney-commuter-malcolm-frawley-reveals-why-he-took-on-antiabortion-evangelist-phillip-blair/news-story/d77c41a761a0d3e255b85bf9dc4238d9
Will Scott decide to time election with Bathurst 1000?
sgh1969 says:
Monday, April 8, 2019 at 12:24 pm
My understanding is that Senators terms don’t expire until June 30th, so they are all still Senators until that date at least irrespective of whether they are standing again or not.
The Senate doesn’t get dissolved like the Reps once a normal election is called.
Remember half the State Senator spots are not up for reelection.
Fozzie Logic @ #588 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 12:37 pm
I think bendy buses solve the problem of allowing ever bigger buses to turn corners on existing roads. All that you need to transfer electric power is a cable, like the one that connects your house to the grid. Designing a short robust cable to go between your EV and caravan shouldn’t tax a competent engineer.
I see ABC Factcheck has checked Bill Shorten’s claim tgat Aged Care funding has been cut by the government. It came back as ‘again, misleading’.
What is this ‘again’ business?
Where are the Facthecks of Morrison’s mendacious claims?
How long before we we the Mad Ad Man in a Ford Ranger?
Scotty f**ked up again 😡
Late Riser @ #593 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 12:48 pm
I was thinking solar panels/batteries on caravan for offroad use with power, extra weight compensated for by aiding towing when charged…
JimmyD
Yeah. it’s like another planet.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/04/trump-infuriated-officials-tell-cant-break-law-led-kirstjen-nielson-firing-nyt/
One can only assume that when he was ‘just a businessman’ and before he ran for President, he would often come up against laws that prevented him from doing whatever he wanted to. His response then to his lawyers must have been “change the law” or i will get infuriated and rage the shit out of you.
Of course he probably most often either ignored the law or skirted it in the ‘grey zone’. I know of a few accountants that do precisely this in Australia.
With EVs vehicle design will enter a new paradigm. I think today’s EV designs are as perceptually tied to modern ICEV designs as early ‘motor car’ designs were tied to horse drawn carriage designs of that time. Modern cars started out as a carriage without the horse. It took decades for today’s dominant look and feel to emerge. EV design should evolve faster, even if it is simply because more people are involved. By 2030 I expect EVs won’t look much like today’s efforts. (And today’s grunt boxes will look quaint.) But that’s not psephological. Today’s smoke will fade.