Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor; Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll and Ipsos offer very mixed signals on the question of whether the government has enjoyed a rarely sighted “budget bounce”.

Two post-budget polls are in – Newspoll from The Australian, Ipsos for Nine Newspapers – and they offer contrasting pictures as to whether support for the government has gone up or down in the wake of last week’s budget.

Newspoll produces an encouraging result for the Coalition in showing Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, rather than 54-46. Ordinarily I would point out that a two-point movement from Newspoll is a rare occurrence, which close observers of the polling industry suspect is down to Newspoll smoothing its numbers with some variety of rolling average, in which the results of the previous poll are combined with those of the latest. However, the last Newspoll was, very unusually, four weeks ago, the delay being down to the New South Wales election a fortnight ago and a desire to hold off until the budget last week. So it would not surprise me if things were different this time, and the result was drawn entirely from this week’s survey, which will have been conducted from Thursday to Sunday (UPDATE: as indeed it was, from a sample of 1799).

The report currently up on The Australian’s website is a bit sketchy, but it tells us the Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 38% and Labor is down two to 37%, with One Nation down one to 6%. Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up three to 46% and Bill Shorten’s is up one to 37%, but there is no word yet on disapproval ratings, preferred prime minister, the Greens primary vote and the sample size. The report also rates the budget has scored the highest since the last Howard government budget in 2007 on impact on personal circumstances and cost of living. Stay tuned for further detail.

UPDATE: The Greens primary vote is steady at 9%; Morrison is down two on disapproval to 43%; Shorten is steady on disapproval at 51%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 43-36 to 46-35.

The post-budget Ipsos poll for Nine Newspapers, which is the first since mid-February, records an actual deterioration for the Coalition on the last since last time, albeit that that was an anomalously strong result for the Coalition (the one that had The Australian proclaiming “Morrison’s Tampa moment” across its front page headline). The two-party headline in the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with 51-49 last time, which I’m guessing applies to both respondent-allocated and two-party preferred preference measures since the reports don’t specify. Ipsos’s primary votes are as usual on the low side for the major parties and well on the high side for the Greens: the Coalition are down a point to 37%, Labor is steady on 34% and the Greens are steady on 13%. If it might be thought odd that such small primary vote movement should produce a two-point shift on two-party preferred, it would appear that rounding favoured the Coalition last time and Labor this time.

On the budget, the poll finds 38% expecting they would be better off and 24% saying worse off, which is around the same as last year. Forty-one per cent thought it fair and 29% unfair. Leadership ratings are, as usual, more favourable from Ipsos than other pollsters, but otherwise notable in recording increased uncommitted ratings across the board. Scott Morrison records 48% approval and 38% disapproval, both down one from last time; Bill Shorten is is down four on approval to 36% and one on disapproval to 51%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 48-38 to 46-35.

Reports on the poll, possibly paywalled, can be found at the Sydney Morning Herald and the Financial Review. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

944 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor; Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 14 of 19
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  2. I’ve been laid up with gout this past week in front of my laptop and occasional TV. (This is unusual for me.) The TV has been on since about 11 this morning, ABC24. I have noticed an absence of male journalists and newsreaders. I’ve also noticed my throwing arm is not nearly as twitchy. Is it ‘ABC after dark’ that the men come out?

  4. Tom McIlroy
    ‏Verified account @TomMcIlroy

    Paul Fletcher’s office contacted the Department of Social Services about the move to extend the energy supplement to Newstart recipients between 7.30pm and 8pm on budget night – also known as during the budget speech #estimates

    Tom McIlroy
    ‏Verified account @TomMcIlroy

    Finance Minister Mathias Cormann confirms the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet was told the government would add Newstart recipients to the energy supplement payments at 9.05pm on budget night #auspol #estimates

  5. booleanbach, as you say re QRA, some southern hemisphere modelling might be in order. What a pity that Abbott ended sent our climate modellers away.

  6. Morrison knows his EV nonsense will work. Any crap he blurts out will work. He has over half the media ready to back whatever he says to the hilt and and the rest feel the need to respect his pathetic populism so as to maintain ‘balance’ – as in their head this balance is democracy in play and as such a necessary part of adversarial politics and contested ideas.

    What a wonderful game politics is. Except it isnt a game. Not any more. EV policy could have been a bipartsian step in dealing with a real problem that threatens everything from water supplies, food production, whole ecosystems, global stability….. and millions and millions and millions of lives. Instead we have this louse, masquerading as a leader, strutting his stuff naked of any moral fibre in front of the media…. and they all report on his new clothes.

  7. LR,

    Sorry to hear about gout. Very, very painful. Have had it from time to time myself, and there’s nothing fn about it at all.

    Hope you’re on the mend.

  9. LOL – the EV stuff wont impress any women at all – too blokey and idiotic. Could even be a net loss of votes.

    I’m serious folks: get more videos out of ScoFo leading a happy-clappy prayer meeting. Australians see that evangelical bullshit as utterly alien to their way of life.

  10. Thanks Burgey. I wasn’t trying for sympathy, honest, just a reflection of being otherwise healthy but immobile. 🙂 (Yes. Bloody painful. On the mend now. Drugs. Yeah!)

  13. The Morrison government has ramped up its marketing and advertising campaigns to $136 million in contracts since the beginning of this year, according to tender documents that reveal the cost to taxpayers…

    The daily cost of the campaigns are expected to be revealed when the Department of Finance fronts Senate estimates hearings on Tuesday.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6007828/taxpayers-bill-for-advertising-hits-136m-as-pm-prepares-to-call-election/?cs=14225

  14. Cheers LR. No worries.

    On a different note, does anyone have the odds for Bennelong? Just saw a couple of tweets from Brian Owler. He’s a waste of a stellar candidate for Labor to be putting up if they don’t realistically think they’re a shot at it.

  15. Zoidlord @ #661 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 2:53 pm

    Michael Koziol
    ‏Verified account @michaelkoziol
    2m2 minutes ago

    Jacqui Munro, former staffer to Gladys Berejiklian and Kerryn Phelps, to contest the seat of Sydney for the Liberal Party #auspol
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/fighting-for-those-small-businesses-phelps-s-former-council-staffer-takes-on-plibersek-20190406-p51bky.html

    Isn’t that Kerryn Phelps’ wife!?!

    Normal lazy person’s disclaimer applies-I could be wrong. 😀

  17. Torchbearer @ #609 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 1:18 pm

    The good old Liberals fighting the future on display again- this time electric vehicles…We can’t replace coal, we cant replace fossil fuel engines, we cant replace copper phone line, we cant have electric vehicles…There slogan should be WE CANT…

    Franklin Roosevelt got it right almost a hundred years ago –

    A conservative is a person with two perfectly good legs…which are only used to walk backwards

  20. Late Riser and Burgey
    Another gout bro here in solidarity. Allopurinol was a godsend for that left toe of mine previously trapped in the fires of hell.

  21. Ellis Winningham makes a great point about inflation:

    If you fear inflation, the truth is that:

    a.) You don’t know what inflation actually is,

    b.) You don’t know how inflation actually arises,

    c.) You are unaware that there are different types of inflation,

    d.) You don’t know cost-push from demand-pull,

    e.) You don’t know what M(V) = P(Q) is, let alone that it is bunk,

    f.) You don’t know that the real ability of a domestic economy to produce plays a critical role when it comes to government spending and inflation,

    g.) You don’t know what a distributional struggle over national income is,

    h.) You don’t know that the negative effects of long-term unemployment far outweigh any negative effects of inflation,

    i.) Someone in a “professional” capacity, whether an economist or a politician, told you to fear inflation, and because you’ve no real understanding of a, b, c, d, e, f, g, and h above, you chose to believe them and fear inflation exclusively on faith alone.

    https://www.facebook.com/100001465716300/posts/1754037527988421?sfns=xmwa

  23. Kristina Keneally was really good with her lines & pics on ABC with all the times the Libs have promoted EVs.
    A first class talent.

  24. Ellis Winningham makes a great point about inflation

    I feel like those points only work on the basis of accepting an implied point of “it’s good for everyone to feel like they need to constantly work and struggle in order to maintain their current position”.

    But that seems like it’s actually less of a good thing and more of a status-quo thing. If we can automate the shit out of basically everything now, why should anyone feel compelled to work for any reason other than “because they want to”?

  25. Nicholas, I can follow most of your economics, but telling people over an over how dumb they are won’t get you support.

  26. Tops stuff KB.

    One question. Do you drink latte or chardonnay?

    I suspect you are a ristretto drinker. maybe with a dash of the hard stuff.

  27. Speaking of new ideas in transport.An article from the SMH …………. July 1900. The author would be chuffed re their opinion on this newfangled idea of a car with a detachable wagon aka truck and trailer for moving stuff about.
    .
    .
    THE FUTURE OF THE MOTOR-CAR.

    The prospects of the motor-car are regarded by ” Engineering ” as very favourable, and it is suggested that the motive portion in goods waggons should be detachable from the main body of the
    wagon, as it would thus be capable of transporting itself to move a similar waggon or lorry waiting elsewhere. This would meet one of the greatest objections to motor vehicles, which occurs in the detention of the expensive part of the vehicle (viz., the motor and gearing ) for long periods during which the lorry is waiting to receive or discharge its load.There is every reason to believe that the heavy motor vehicle, at any rate, has before it a very important future, and it is gratifying to think that English are well to the front in the design and manufacture of such vehicles.
    https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/14326841?

  29. booleanbach

    KK was on a regular panel on Sky which featured some pretty full on Murdoch orcs. It was always impressive to see her ‘tame the beasts’ and more than hold her own . Most excellent at disarming them.

  31. …If we can automate the shit out of basically everything now, why should anyone feel compelled to work…

    As ever, it will depend on who owns the automation.

  33. Since we are discussing EV’s ,etc., does anyone know if the “Road Works” signs are permanent fixtures on the Sydney M4? Was an infuriating experience driving early morning with little traffic and no road work activity on roads that used to be 110 kph to now be on 80 except for a short stretch near Penrith.
    Then we have the unbroken lines funneling us across and over the mountains where the ability to move over for faster traffic just doesn’t exist anymore, except for some designated passing lanes.
    The roads may be new but not only do I get slugged with tolls for what used to be free, it now takes me so much longer for a trip I have regularly taken these last 15 years.
    After recently driving on roads in Europe with speeds of 130 on the freeways, it feels we are becoming more restrictive by the day.

  36. Agreed on KK. She brilliantly exposed their hypocrisy. Makes Scott Morrison and Alan Jones look particularly bad, doesn’t it?

  39. #WeatheronPB. On what is probably the last hurrah of Summer 2018-19, it reached 32 in Sydney City, nearly 35 at the Airport.

  41. “Wayne says:
    Monday, April 8, 2019 at 3:41 pm
    Our great LNP are on the come back trail and win the November election by a landslide”

    But how will the NLP fare at the May election?

  42. Penny Wong asks if cars should still be allowed to have lead in petrol.

    Mathias Cormann says of course not.

    So Wong asks how it is any different to wanting a target on electric vehicles.

    She says the government’s argument is “philosophically ridiculous”.

    “Is this really the best you can do, ‘don’t vote for Bill Shorten because he is going to take your ute’?”

  43. “Is this really the best you can do, ‘don’t vote for Bill Shorten because he is going to take your ute’?”

    Evidence has been clear for a while now that yes, they don’t have anything better than flimsy, half-baked and juvenile strategies. It isn’t the B Team; it’s more like the G Team.

  44. The Guardian:

    I know this has been asked a few times, so here you go – a list of the senators whose terms are up this election:

    New South Wales
    Jim Molan
    John Williams
    Doug Cameron
    Mehreen Faruqi
    Brian Burston
    Duncan Spender

    Queensland
    Ian Macdonald
    Barry O’Sullivan
    Claire Moore
    Chris Ketter
    Larissa Waters
    Fraser Anning

    Victoria
    James Paterson
    Jane Hume
    Raff Ciccone
    Gavin Marshall
    Janet Rice
    Derryn Hinch

    South Australia
    Anne Ruston
    David Fawcett
    Lucy Gichuhi
    Alex Gallacher
    Sarah Hanson-Young
    Tim Storer

    Western Australia
    Linda Reynolds
    Slade Brockman
    Pat Dodson
    Louise Pratt
    Jordon Steele-John
    Peter Georgiou

    Tasmania
    Richard Colbeck
    Steve Martin
    Lisa Singh
    Chris Brown
    Catryna Bilyk
    Nick McKim

    Northern Territory
    Nigel Scullion
    Malarndirri McCarthy

    ACT
    Zed Seselja
    David Smith

  45. The manager of $208 billion of federal public servants’ retirement funds dumped its stake in Adani in February, citing “recent events” at the controversial Indian energy group.

    Adani’s proposal to build a scaled down Carmichael coal mine in Queensland’s Galilee Basin is being held up by environmental approvals with the federal and Queensland governments.

    The Morrison government is sharply divided over the mine, with Queensland members urging Environment Minister Melissa Price to issue a federal environmental approval before the election is called.

    There are also tensions between the Labor Party and the Construction Foresty Mining Maritime and Energy Union over the mine.

    Commonwealth Superannuation Corporation, which is chaired by former bank director Patricia Cross, sold its Adani stake valued at between $10 million and $42 million.

    The Adani sellout comes as Norway’s government proposes new rules that could force the oil producing nation’s $US1 trillion ($1.4 trillion) sovereign wealth fund – The Norwegian Pension Find Global or NPFG – to sell out of coal producers BHP, Glencore, South32 and Anglo American.

  46. “I’m worried about the very long extension leads that will be draped along our roads due to electric vehicles.”

    Surely we’ll hear this complaint from at least one ON voter!

  48. This scare campaign has unraveled in about eight hours. About four faster than the Budget.

    I wonder what tomorrow’s efforts will bring.

  50. Today’s Mumble on Ipsos vs Newspoll.

    Newspoll has Coalition on 38 per cent, Labor 37, Greens 9 and One Nation 6, washing through to 52–48 after preferences. Ipsos puts it at 37, 34 and 13 and 5, with 53–47 two-party-preferred.

    The big difference is in Greens primary support, of which Ipsos is a serial over-estimator. During and before the 2016 campaign, for example, the pollster had the minor party on 13 or 14 per cent; on election day it received 10.2 per cent of the vote. The other polls, including Newspoll, had much more realistic measurements, as this cheat sheet shows.

    (Like most minor parties, the Greens tend to get inflated opinion poll figures when they’re included in the initial “Which of these would you vote for?” question. If they’re not included, they’re understated. My guess, without being privy to the pollsters’ sausage-producing procedures, is that while they all include the Greens, most of them — but not Ipsos — adjust their result downwards in some way.)

    If we take three or four points off Ipsos’s Greens vote and give 80 per cent of it to Labor and 20 per cent to the Coalition (which is about how they would flow in preferences anyway), we get… very similar numbers to Newspoll’s.

    Both pollsters agree that Labor is on about 52 or 53 per cent.

    http://insidestory.org.au/more-polls-but-still-no-election/

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