BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)

No new grist for the BludgerTrack mill this week, but there’s a Greenpeace-sponsored federal poll and some preselection news to relate.

There haven’t been any new polls this week, so the headline to this post isn’t news as such – the point is that a new thread is needed, and this is it. Developments worth noting:

• We do have one new poll, but it was privately conducted and so doesn’t count as canonical so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The poll in question was conducted by uComms/ReachTEL for Greenpeace last Wednesday from a sample of 2134, and has primary votes of Coalition 38.8%, Labor 36.7%, Greens 9.7% and One Nation 6.1%. A 53-47 two-party split is reported based on respondent-allocated preferences, but it would actually have been around 51.5-48.5 based on preferences from 2016. The poll also features attitudinal questions on carbon emissions and government priorities, which you can read all about here.

• The Greens have landed a high-profile candidate in Julian Burnside, human rights lawyer and refugee advocate, to run against Josh Frydenberg in the normally blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. This further complicates a contest that already featured independent hopeful Oliver Yates, former Liberal Party member and chief executive of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

• The Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin will be determined by a vote of 60 delegates on Sunday. Initial reports suggested the front-runners were Celia Hammond, former vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, and Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, which some interpreted as a proxy battle between bitter rivals Mathias Cormann and Julie Bishop. However, both have hit heavy weather over the past week, with concerns raised over Hammond’s social conservatism and Watson-Lynn’s past tweets critical of the Liberal Party. Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports that some within the party believe a third nominee, Aurizon manager Anna Dartnell, could skate through the middle.

• Tom Richardson of InDaily reports moderate faction efforts to install a male candidate – James Stevens, chief-of-staff to Premier Steve Marshall – in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt are prompting a slew of conservative-aligned women to nominate against him. These include Deepa Mathew, a manager at the Commonwealth Bank and state candidate for Enfield last year; Joanna Andrew, a partner with law firm Mellor Olsson; and Jocelyn Sutcliffe, a lawyer with Tindall Gask Bentley. However, Stevens remains the “overwhelming favourite”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)”

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  3. Got to hand it to Burnside and the Greens, they are exposing each other’s flaws with a speed and efficiency rarely seen in politics.

  4. Where are the angry white men of poll bludger land being consistent in calling out mens behaviour ………the hypocricy to suit their narrative is amazing.

    Clearly recall a lot of posters stating that women need to look after themselves to be safe notthatmen have to change, now they are using their narrative to suit their agenda ie kick the greens. Quite sad.

    This is all because a comment was made about refugee policy that some could not take. Take it back to refugee policy / medivac not continual cheap shots isnt this the issue ?

    I am not a greens voter but find a lot of Labor posters being very prescious

    You are playing the politics you critique. If it suits you now it should suit you then and in the future – be consistent not just when you have a cheap point to make.

    A lot of rusted on posters on here are like the coalition and energy policy not being consistent but using the discussion for powers sake.

  7. Morrison highlights his own failure

    https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/mar/09/by-stoking-recession-fears-morrison-highlights-his-own-failure-on-economy?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fbusiness%2Fgrogonomics%2F2019%2Fmar%2F09%2Fby-stoking-recession-fears-morrison-highlights-his-own-failure-on-economy

  8. Boerwar @ #2131 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 10:45 am

    But is it really a totally minor thing to try and subjugate a woman on national television

    subjugate /ˈsʌbdʒʊɡeɪt/ (verb) – bring under domination or control, especially by conquest
    synonyms: conquer, vanquish, defeat, crush, quell, quash

    So in your eyes, reciprocal rudeness and finger-pointing amount to an attempt to subjugate someone? There’s another word for that.

    hyperbole /hʌɪˈpəːbəli/ (noun) – exaggerated statements or claims not meant to be taken literally.
    synonyms: exaggeration, overstatement, magnification, amplification, embroidery, embellishment

  10. Barney in Cà Mau says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 11:58 am
    Upnorth,

    Is loud music also involved.
    ———————————————————————————-
    Ah you know the trick! Yes always loud music and generally copious cigarettes.

  15. Rex Douglas @ #2148 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 11:57 am

    C@tmomma @ #2124 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 11:52 am

    Rex Douglas @ #2109 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 11:31 am

    Vogon Poet @ #2087 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 11:27 am

    Burnside could pop into the Savage club and hand the plate around for that last 3 grand

    Just as long as he doesn’t take any advice on donations from Shanghai Sam.

    That’s not very diplomatic or a nice thing to say about Sam Dastyari. I thought you were policing the blog wrt undiplomatic commentary? You do know that Sam has had problems with Depression and PTSD, don’t yo? Or don’t you care?

    I sincerely hopes he overcomes those internal troubles.

    So do I, and thank you for your concern. He has lost his wife and kids over the whole affair, not to mention his career.

  16. Rex@11:59am
    “mistruth”
    So claiming Burnside was a member of Savage club(an exclusive mens only club) a “mistruth”. Claiming that he resigned from that club after that was exposed was a “misrepresentation”?

  18. zoomster @ #2015 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 10:16 am

    rhwombat

    Yes, it’s a fascinating field.

    I read a study that concluded deaths amongst wounded soldiers in Vietnam were higher than deaths in the Falklands BECAUSE intervention was more timely in Vietnam.

    The theory goes that a wounded soldier in Vietnam was picked up and pumped full of plasma within a very short time – the soldiers in the Falklands were often left for hours in near freezing conditions.

    Being pumped full of plasma meant that blood didn’t have time to clot, which actually prevented the proper healing of wounds. *

    *Just reporting – I have no idea whether it was tosh or not!

    My understanding is that the cold played a part in the survival rates in Falklands

  19. I gotta say, I do wonder why Burnside is running in Kooyong and not Higgins or another Lib-held seat. There’s an Indy-Lib candidate, Oliver Yates, with a respectable chance running in Kooyong but no similar Indy-Lib running in other safely Lib-held Melbourne seats.

    Doubtless, the Gs will be happy if Yates in knocked out in Kooyong. The Indy-Libs are greater menace to the Gs than are the Liberals.

    Why is Burnside trying to spoil Yates?

  20. An Iraqi refugee who died by suicide inside Sydney’s Villawood Immigration Detention Centre on Monday had appeared in court earlier that day.

    @lynnemurphy1
    About the man who died in #Villawood, @AusBorderForce said: “All detainees receive appropriate medical and mental health care. We have a range of health services available including psychiatry, psychology and counselling services” 1/2

    @lynnemurphy1
    .@AusBorderForce forgot to say detained refugees are taken to medical & counselling services in handcuffs & with two guards holding their arms, paraded before the public in the streets.
    Known to be depressed
    On suicide watch until day before court 2/2

    “The day of court he wasn’t too happy, he was stressing out and scared,” one Villawood detainee who did not wish to be named told SBS News via a translator.
    “Milad was worried about going back, about being deported.”

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/villawood-refugee-faced-court-hours-before-suicide

  21. c@t, barney

    I haven’t seen the interview, so therefore I’m unaware of why exactly she was there. Based on this, I can only assume she was present to interfere with the presser. Why exactly was she interrupting when “real” journos were supposed to be the ones asking the questions?

  22. Ed@macaulaybalkan
    3h3 hours ago
    The greens are getting progressively worse at the stuff they used to be best at. In what universe does burnside open an email like that

    :large

  23. I think it’s going to be a long couple of months on PB as The Greens partisans throw everything but a Savages Club spear at trying to get Julian Burnside over the line in Kooyong.
    *sigh*

    Also, I note with sadness that the great Workers Warrior, Pegasus, has failed to congratulate Bill Shorten for introducing the idea of a Living Wage for the lowest paid Workers in our nation. It seems she only wears her ‘Workers Rool OK!’ badge when it suits her.

  26. Going on for days after a politician has resigned and admitted it was a mistake to be a member is what political enemies do when tearing down an opponent.

    If you want Frydenberg to lose then save your fire for him and cheer on any candidate that can beat him.

    Thats my approach anyway. I am certainly no fan of the character assassination that goes hand in glove with politics so can we please limit it as much as possible that would be good. Yes I know I too have participated in this and I do try and limit myself so am not being a hypocrite. I just want the focus to be on the LNP.

    Noting that ABC News 24 is showing Berejikilian’s launch not Shorten’s I hope they are not scheduled at exactly the same time. I think the Greens moved their campaign launch precisely not to have this clash of launches.

    That at least is a smart move by the Greens if any media covers it.

  27. Dan Gulberry @ #2171 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 12:10 pm

    c@t, barney

    I haven’t seen the interview, so therefore I’m unaware of why exactly she was there. Based on this, I can only assume she was present to interfere with the presser. Why exactly was she interrupting when “real” journos were supposed to be the ones asking the questions?

    It wasn’t a presser, that’s why. It was an in studio interview with a journo on Sky.

  28. I am not a greens voter but find a lot of Labor posters being very precious

    I think you’ll find that the Labor-voting posters here are not the slightest bit representative of Labor voters generally let alone Australian voters generally.

    The posters are far more tribal and far less rational than those two groups.

  29. b

    Obvious reason – Burnside is a long-term resident of the Kooyong electorate.

    Labor parachutes in celebrity candidates but the Greens haven’t in this case.

  30. Coalition wanted to wait until after NSW election to give Gladys some clean air … another cunning plan by those who cannot keep their shit together for 5 minutes!

  31. Hm…another refugee dead due to the shockingly poor treatment doled out by the Border Force, and a Burnside email with a sub-optimal subject line.

    Which thing will attract more attention? 🙄

  33. briefly @ #2149 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 12:09 pm

    I gotta say, I do wonder why Burnside is running in Kooyong and not Higgins or another Lib-held seat. There’s an Indy-Lib candidate, Oliver Yates, with a respectable chance running in Kooyong but no similar Indy-Lib running in other safely Lib-held Melbourne seats.

    Doubtless, the Gs will be happy if Yates in knocked out in Kooyong. The Indy-Libs are greater menace to the Gs than are the Liberals.

    Why is Burnside trying to spoil Yates?

    He’s helping Yates by drawing away first preferecnes from Frydenberg and delivering Yates his own preferences.

  34. Won’t it be good when the election is over and Labor and the Greens are buddy-buddy in the Senate passing all those Labor policies 🙂

  36. Confessions @ #2174 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 9:12 am

    Dan G:

    You can watch it here:
    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/1103957472266530818

    Sorry fess. I just can’t watch any videos posted on Twitter.

    I have no problems with iView, Stan, Netflix or YouTube, but Twitter videos go into buffer mode every 3 seconds, or in the case of the one you just posted, freeze the whole computer forcing a reboot. I did catch enough of it to see it wasn’t a presser but an interview on Sky. That’s as much as I can get from it unless there’s a link to the video on another site apart from Twitter. I guess I’ll have to remain none the wiser as to whether Burnside was mansplaining or she was doing their usual Lib trick of interrupting everything anyone else says.

  37. The definitions certainly suit many PB regulars, feel the Burnside

    Partisan –
    Adherent to a party or faction; especially, having the character of blind, passionate, or unreasonable adherence to a party
    Devoted to or biased in support of a party, group, or cause: partisan politics.

    Hence the waste of time to bother engage with some
    A few gems amidst the sea of mud

    FWIW and now moot it seems as far as Kooyong goes

    The Savage Club appears to be a local branch of the London Savage club, a 19th century club of artists and scientists originally. Named after one Richard Savage, a poet, apparently.
    Seems to be primarily painters, musicians, scientists and lawyers, some of fame and infamy according to Wiki, ie Barry Humphries and George Brandis.
    Charlie Chaplin was a member of the Savage club by Wiki, amongst a pile of other artists and musicians as well, even Mark Twain
    A 19th century bohemians club that has seemed focused on arts, laws and sciences

  40. “Won’t it be good when the election is over and Labor and the Greens are buddy-buddy in the Senate passing all those Labor policies ”

    hahaha … bwhahaha …

    Come July 2019 expect a lot of this from Pegarex:

    “But good IS the enemy of perfect!”

  41. Quoll

    I think the partisans here are the Greens, defending behaviours that they would normally deplore.

    Imagine if a Labor candidate was – and had been for decades – a member of an exclusive men’s club.

  42. Returning to that pic of Libs around woman and child.

    Hugo Robinson the thug on the left monstering women and children seems to be working full time on Liberal campaign while employed by the NSW Minerals Council #auspol

  44. ‘Yep, I got that, but as I explained up the page, I can’t watch Twitter videos.’

    And I wasn’t asking you to watch one.

  45. I am flattered by the resurgence of derisory comments about me. The usual suspects are reverting to type and can not restrain their childish or head-kicking tendencies.

    As far as I am concerned it is positive feedback so go for it, though as I consistently politely request – creative put-downs and witticisms are appreciated..

  46. “A 19th century bohemians club that has seemed focused on arts, laws and sciences”

    Confirms my impression of the lovely Burnsides when I met them a decade ago at a Bali legal conference – Bohobos.

    It seems unbelieveable now that Julian’s wife – who is prominent in the art-latte circle in Melbourne, as well as a life long Labor person – didn’t insist that Julian take a stronger stance on the Savage club before now. Almost as unbelievable that a group of Bonhemians such as the Savage club would be so resistant to joining the 20th Century (let alone the 21st Century).

    That of course is simply grist for the mill. As a political candidate having a red hot go Julian owed it to his prospective electors to get his house into order WAY before now. The Greens ineptitude is simply staggering and the Green partisans on here are just engaging in cognitive dissonance if they cant grasp the depth of the problem.

  49. “Was Scott Morrison at the LNP launch? I did not catch the start of it to see if he was.”

    I doubt it. After his triumphant performance as campaign manager for the 2003 and 2007 elections ScoMo doesn’t do local politics.

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