BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)

No new grist for the BludgerTrack mill this week, but there’s a Greenpeace-sponsored federal poll and some preselection news to relate.

There haven’t been any new polls this week, so the headline to this post isn’t news as such – the point is that a new thread is needed, and this is it. Developments worth noting:

• We do have one new poll, but it was privately conducted and so doesn’t count as canonical so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The poll in question was conducted by uComms/ReachTEL for Greenpeace last Wednesday from a sample of 2134, and has primary votes of Coalition 38.8%, Labor 36.7%, Greens 9.7% and One Nation 6.1%. A 53-47 two-party split is reported based on respondent-allocated preferences, but it would actually have been around 51.5-48.5 based on preferences from 2016. The poll also features attitudinal questions on carbon emissions and government priorities, which you can read all about here.

• The Greens have landed a high-profile candidate in Julian Burnside, human rights lawyer and refugee advocate, to run against Josh Frydenberg in the normally blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. This further complicates a contest that already featured independent hopeful Oliver Yates, former Liberal Party member and chief executive of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

• The Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin will be determined by a vote of 60 delegates on Sunday. Initial reports suggested the front-runners were Celia Hammond, former vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, and Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, which some interpreted as a proxy battle between bitter rivals Mathias Cormann and Julie Bishop. However, both have hit heavy weather over the past week, with concerns raised over Hammond’s social conservatism and Watson-Lynn’s past tweets critical of the Liberal Party. Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports that some within the party believe a third nominee, Aurizon manager Anna Dartnell, could skate through the middle.

• Tom Richardson of InDaily reports moderate faction efforts to install a male candidate – James Stevens, chief-of-staff to Premier Steve Marshall – in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt are prompting a slew of conservative-aligned women to nominate against him. These include Deepa Mathew, a manager at the Commonwealth Bank and state candidate for Enfield last year; Joanna Andrew, a partner with law firm Mellor Olsson; and Jocelyn Sutcliffe, a lawyer with Tindall Gask Bentley. However, Stevens remains the “overwhelming favourite”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)”

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  1. Peter Salerno, who offers laughter therapy, fortune telling and inspirational speaking, will run in the state’s most marginal seat of Boothby.

    I wonder which branch of the Liberals he represents.

  2. The over reach and hyperbole about Burnside’s perceived ‘hanging offence’ is quite absurd and hysterical.

    Welcome to what’s wrong with our adversarial political system dominated by two major parties who have honed character assassination to a fine art. Aided and abetted by the MSM, the aim is to prop up the business as usual model aka the status quo.

    Burnside is a fit for the demographics in Kooyong. His stance on human rights, civil rights, individual rights and the rights of asylum seekers and refugees is a fit for the Greens party.

    Donations continue to flow into his campaign with just under $3,200 needed to reach the renewed target of $200,000.

    https://burnside.greens.org.au/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIsormi5r24AIVQhuPCh0tvgsEEAAYASAAEgIq6fD_BwE

  3. ‘ His stance on human rights, civil rights, individual rights and the rights of asylum seekers and refugees is a fit for the Greens party.’

    There’s a missing issue here, which actually explains why the Greens are in trouble electorally.

  4. The Coalition calls it “tax relief”.

    Ben Davison
    ‏
    Remember tax cuts aren’t the same as a wage rise.
    You boss has to pay for wage increases by taking less profits.
    You pay for a tax cut because it comes from schools, TAFE, hospitals, Medicare, infrastructure & services.

  5. A woman will today replace Julie Bishop as the Federal Liberal candidate for Curtin at the May election, as resources executive Anna Dartnell strengthened as the person likely to win preselection.

    Informed sources yesterday said the odds had shortened that Ms Dartnell, a resources executive at Aurizon and manufacturing small business owner, would pip early favourites — lawyer and former University of Notre Dame vice chancellor Celia Hammond and foreign affairs specialist Erin Watson-Lynn.

    They warned selection would come down to how the three favourites — plus other candidates Karen Caddy and Andres Timmermanis — performed during their 30-minute presentation before 94 preselectors at the Cambridge Bowling Club today.

    https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/anna-dartnell-tipped-to-replace-julie-bishop-as-federal-liberal-candidate-for-curtin-ng-b881130351z

    The report confirms that SSM will be one of the topics candidates are asked about. Again, why when it’s already legislated? Is there the possibility Liberals are going to start running on a platform of rolling back legalised SSM?

  6. Rocket Rocket says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 11:04 am

    Barney

    Have you got down to the tip of the peninsula? 36 degrees and humid – any rain yet?

    Not yet, I’ve been laid up crook for a couple of days.

    I’m going to do a shorter trip to the west coast tomorrow to see how I feel.

    The trip down to the Cape is about 2.5 hrs each way, so it will be a big day and yes, I’ve just noticed Tuesday and Wednesday they’re forecasting 37°C and rain, which just adds to the fun. 🙂

    Also – can people there understand your Vietnamese?

    I long ago learnt that only I can understand my Vietnamese! 😆

  8. Barney

    I was charmed once reading a Vietnamese phrase book, where one of the phrases was “I am not a native Vietnamese speaker.”

    It was obviously a very good phrase book.

  9. I should put my position on the table right now because a few of the Greens are sounding a bit confused about this.
    I hope that the Labor candidate thrashes Frydenberg.

    Frydenberg was arguably the worst environment minister the Commonwealth has ever had… until Price came along. And that is a ground zero bar.
    Frydenberg failed to deliver an energy policy. Nothing.
    Frydenberg failed to deliver an emissions policy. Nothing.
    Frydenberg has delivered a per capita recession, falling living standards and a tanking GDP. He has delivered a full blown housing construction industry crisis. He has delivered stagnant wages.
    In short, he has risen to his current lofty position with a track record of fundamental failure.
    To put it bluntly, Frydenberg is a fucking useless endoparasite in Australia’s body politic.

    So, I truly hope that the Labor candidate thrashes Frydenberg.
    But… and only if the Labor candidate falls short… I endorse Burnside as my fall back candidate.

    He may be a wealthy old, white, male Liberal-voting habituee of the men’s only Savage Club.
    He may point the finger at young women in other to subjugate them in a discussion.
    He may think it is twee politics to shit all over Shorten instead of going straight for Dutton’s ghoolies in his very first extended national interview on the ABC.
    He may really and truly think that him becoming an MP at the trough of the system that is broken will fix the system.
    He may klutz in the odd politically-inappropriate Nazi reference.
    He may really and truly and stupidly think that ‘Lib Lab same same’ is for real.

    BUT HE IS NOT FRYDENBERG!

  12. ‘Greensborough Growler says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 11:19 am

    The visuals from that interview depict a privileged white mansplaining member of the patriarchy talking at a woman to put her in her place on International Woman’s Day.’

    Burnside has a sort of gut feel for how to get his foot in his mouth at exactly the right time.

  14. zoomster says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 11:28 am

    Barney

    I was charmed once reading a Vietnamese phrase book, where one of the phrases was “I am not a native Vietnamese speaker.”

    It was obviously a very good phrase book.

    Half the time they don’t understand me when I say that. 😆

  15. GG
    What does a top QC get?
    The equivalent of the annual Newstart Allowance for a single day’s work?
    Man of the people sort of thing?

  16. I wonder how the Savage Club got its name?
    Are there some sort Club entry requirements -apart from having male genitalia, of course.

  17. Boerwar @ #2069 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 9:56 am

    Does #metoo include attempts by older men to intimidate younger women live on national TV?

    ‘But when you point AT someone, it’s a sign of dominance. The back of the hand is pointing upwards (a clear sign of dominance), and the finger is casting blame… “YOU DIDN’T KEEP YOUR PROMISES!”. Even worse is when you’re poking someone, as you violate their space.’

    It’s very British to conflate bad manners with criminality and sexual abuse. But this is Australia. 🙂

    Tell you what; you get the women who started the #metoo movement to agree that every person who has the gall to do something as heinous as point their finger at another person deserves to be called out through #metoo because they’re just as bad as the Trumps, Kavanaughs, Weinsteins, et al. and you can have your overreach. Fair enough?

  18. vp:

    Yes I had a similar thought yesterday.

    If he’d run as an independent he wouldn’t have had to play down his old, white, privileged maleness, rather used it to his advantage. He could’ve stayed a member of that all male club and used the networking opportunities available to him for fundraising. He would probably even give Frydenberg a run for his money too if he were an independent candidate.

  20. Boerwar:

    The Savage Club collects indigenous artefacts from Polynesia and Melanesia. It also has a bar called The Third World Bar.

    I think you can guess why it’s called the Savage Club.

  21. “It goes the logic of Labor partisans tearing down Burnside to the benefit of Frydenberg”

    I repeat what I told Guytaur. Get a grip. Julian’s wounds are self inflicted.

    Labor partisans are merely commentating on, not causing, the wreckage. I for one do so with sadness and regret. And no schadenfreude (much).

  22. It seems most Newspoll guesses have now been submitted, with only one new guess since yesterday 5pm (6pm AEDT). (Thank you, The Silver Bodgie.) So there’s no need to post any lists at this stage, just the high level stats.

    PB-Guess: Newspoll 2019-03-10
    PB mean: ALP 54.4 to 45.6 LNP
    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 71

    PB-Guess: Essential 2019-03-12
    PB mean: ALP 53.7 to 46.3 LNP
    PB median: ALP 53.5 to 46.5 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 54

    PB-Guess: Ipsos 2019-03-17
    PB mean: ALP 52.5 to 47.5 LNP
    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 25

    I am going out for a bit but should be back in time to scan for any additions and post a full Newspoll Guess list approx 5pm (6pm AEDT) tonight. If Newspoll beats me back, I’ll scan and limit myself to a post on the new thread. 🙂

  25. BW

    I should put my position on the table right now because a few of the Greens are sounding a bit confused about this.

    I am not confused about your stance at all. Formerly a strident advocate for the Informal Party but now a comparatively recent convert to Labor partisan, it’s obvious you want the Labor candidate to get up in Kooyong.

    Rabbitting on for days now, your campaign to discredit Burnside is your chosen route but is misguided imo.

  28. So Pegasus approves of a man rudely telling a woman not to interrupt him when he’s talking.

    Pegasus approves of a man belonging to a men’s only club.

    Pegasus approves of someone quoting a Nazi to make their point.

    Fair enough.

    I wonder why the Greens are losing votes??

  30. Andrew Earlwood.

    Look at the PB pages. Its Burnside Burnside Burnside Burnside. You would think he was about to become Prime Minister not be the most credible threat to the LNP Treasurer in one of the safest Liberal seats in the country.

    I made my comments on the own goals and left it at that.

    I certainly did not go about conflating some finger pointing to anything to do with the MeToo movement.

    I don’t know enough about Mr Burnside to say anything like that.
    Not even being a member of the Savage Club means I can say that.

  31. ar

    I can’t speak for the #metoo movement.

    But I do have a sneaking suspicion that the Movement would instantly recognize what Burnside was up to. But is it really a totally minor thing to try and subjugate a woman on national television, especially on International Women’s Day. What Day could be more apt? Should this be downplayed for the sake of political exigencies?

    I do await Di Natale making an announcement that Burnside has been counselled (sacking him would be a bridge too far, IMO) because the Greens are up their organizational necks addressing their bullying problem, and worse, and that this starts with leadership the top. But then Di Natale does not seem to be the sort of strong leader the Greens need.

  32. ..and, of course, if the Greens partisans here stopped trying to defend the indefensible, this discussion would have been over days ago.

  33. The best thing about Burnside’s candidacy is the David Rowe cartoons of him as a Yeti chasing Fryboy on a snow capped mountain. For that alone, I wish Julian all the best.

  36. @murpharoo tweets

    Who has suffered as a consequence of Tony Abbott’s frolics and flip flops on climate change? Spoiler alert: you. https://twitter.com/insidersabc/status/1104517178030678018

    @insidersABC tweets

    “It is not about ideology, it’s about power and and its about hyperpolarisation in politics and it’s about wrecking.”

    @murpharoo says “the Australian voters are suffering” over climate policy. #Insiders #auspol https://twitter.com/InsidersABC/status/1104517178030678018/video/1

  37. Has any MSM publication ever done a thorough examination of the level of mining industry support of Canavan and Joyce ..?

  38. “Pollbludgers throwing stones at Burnside for being an ‘old white fogey’ …. hmm no comment”

    Did your Quinoa salad positively frizzle when you wrote that feckless nonesense?

  39. zoomster @ #2128 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 11:44 am

    So Pegasus approves of a man rudely telling a woman not to interrupt him when he’s talking.

    Pegasus approves of a man belonging to a men’s only club.

    Pegasus approves of someone quoting a Nazi to make their point.

    Fair enough.

    I wonder why the Greens are losing votes??

    Peg is besotted and blind to these imperfections. She thinks she can change him!

  40. ‘Confessions says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 11:38 am

    Boerwar:

    The Savage Club collects indigenous artefacts from Polynesia and Melanesia. It also has a bar called The Third World Bar.

    I think you can guess why it’s called the Savage Club.’

    Might there be a spello?

    Is it really the ‘Savages Club’?

  41. “So Pegasus approves of a man rudely telling a woman not to interrupt him when he’s talking.”

    I watched that zoom. I think that regardless of topic or gender she was simply being rude and deserved to be called out on that basis.

  42. z

    I see you are resorting more frequently to your verballing, sneering and smearing MO

    It is too much to expect you could change your spots and tactics of a life time.

  43. More from Curtin.

    Now that enemy lines have been drawn — Julie Bishop and ally Danielle Blain versus Mathias Cormann and Peter Collier — Ferret hears the sacked zoo-keepers and failed mime artists who make up the WA Libs are starting to tire of the frontrunners, Celia Hammond and Erin Whatshername.

    Ferret hears one bothers God too much (Hammond), the other’s too dripping wet (Whatshername) and rank and file are getting sick of being told who to tick on the ballot box.

    For these reasons, Ferret understands resources executive Anna Dartnell is starting to firm. The other pair, Stirling City councillor Karen Caddy — nah — and Andres Timmermanis have no chance, but in Andre’s case, it’s not for want of trying.

    Andres has had more goes at winning Liberal preselection than Ferret has had angry legal letters. We hereby dub him the Forrest Gump of the WA Libs.

    He ran in Moore preselection against Ian (Izzie) Goodenough. He ran in Cottesloe against David Honey. Now he is running in Curtin.

    Ferret thinks Andres will at some stage stop running and, like Forrest, turn to his followers and say: “I’m pretty tired . . . I think I’ll go home now.”

    One can only hope.

    https://thewest.com.au/opinion/the-ferret-did-wa-dad-kim-beazley-fundraiser-for-his-daughter-hannah-while-governor-ng-b881129192z

  44. Rex Douglas @ #2109 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 11:31 am

    Vogon Poet @ #2087 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 11:27 am

    Burnside could pop into the Savage club and hand the plate around for that last 3 grand

    Just as long as he doesn’t take any advice on donations from Shanghai Sam.

    That’s not very diplomatic or a nice thing to say about Sam Dastyari. I thought you were policing the blog wrt undiplomatic commentary? You do know that Sam has had problems with Depression and PTSD, don’t you? Or don’t you care?

  46. Barney in Cà Mau says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 11:25 am
    Rocket Rocket says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 11:04 am

    Barney

    Have you got down to the tip of the peninsula? 36 degrees and humid – any rain yet?

    Not yet, I’ve been laid up crook for a couple of days.

    I’m going to do a shorter trip to the west coast tomorrow to see how I feel.

    The trip down to the Cape is about 2.5 hrs each way, so it will be a big day and yes, I’ve just noticed Tuesday and Wednesday they’re forecasting 37°C and rain, which just adds to the fun.

    Also – can people there understand your Vietnamese?

    I long ago learnt that only I can understand my Vietnamese!
    ———————————————————————————-
    Barney I tend to find that my Mandarin and my Thai improve greatly the more drinks mine hosts push my way. In China the Bai Jiu (Mao Tai) helps while here in Thailand various varieties of rice wine do the trick.

    My theory is that the liquor helps loosen the tongue. I try to be “fluent” in each language by this method as rarely as possible.

  47. Is it really the ‘Savages Club’?

    I have visions of its members sat around with their snifters of brandy, puffing on cigars as they refer to Aboriginal women as ‘lubras’ and relive the glory days of the Old Empire.

    I can’t imagine why anyone would want to join such a club. Interestingly however, the Savage Club has reciprocal relationships with similar clubs around the world. Most if not all of those reciprocal clubs (some don’t have English on their websites) allow women.

  48. C@tmomma @ #2124 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 11:52 am

    Rex Douglas @ #2109 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 11:31 am

    Vogon Poet @ #2087 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 11:27 am

    Burnside could pop into the Savage club and hand the plate around for that last 3 grand

    Just as long as he doesn’t take any advice on donations from Shanghai Sam.

    That’s not very diplomatic or a nice thing to say about Sam Dastyari. I thought you were policing the blog wrt undiplomatic commentary? You do know that Sam has had problems with Depression and PTSD, don’t yo? Or don’t you care?

    I sincerely hopes he overcomes those internal troubles.

  49. RD

    Don’t forget the mistruths and misrepresentations which are never retracted after being exposed.

    And the same mistruths and misrepresentations are peddled over and over again despite being exposed.

  50. a r @ #2117 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 11:36 am

    It’s very British to conflate bad manners with criminality and ……..

    Pardon me, but I immediately thought of this which I was watching last night. It is right out of Monty Python, not the least for the appalling interviewer, slouched awkwardly in a pseudo relaxed ‘I’m perfectly at ease’ kind of way, not.

    Lady Diana Mosley, nee Mitford, acquaintance of Adolf, married in Goebbel’s house, and one time inmate.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzkbouKG830

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