BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)

No new grist for the BludgerTrack mill this week, but there’s a Greenpeace-sponsored federal poll and some preselection news to relate.

There haven’t been any new polls this week, so the headline to this post isn’t news as such – the point is that a new thread is needed, and this is it. Developments worth noting:

• We do have one new poll, but it was privately conducted and so doesn’t count as canonical so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The poll in question was conducted by uComms/ReachTEL for Greenpeace last Wednesday from a sample of 2134, and has primary votes of Coalition 38.8%, Labor 36.7%, Greens 9.7% and One Nation 6.1%. A 53-47 two-party split is reported based on respondent-allocated preferences, but it would actually have been around 51.5-48.5 based on preferences from 2016. The poll also features attitudinal questions on carbon emissions and government priorities, which you can read all about here.

• The Greens have landed a high-profile candidate in Julian Burnside, human rights lawyer and refugee advocate, to run against Josh Frydenberg in the normally blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. This further complicates a contest that already featured independent hopeful Oliver Yates, former Liberal Party member and chief executive of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

• The Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin will be determined by a vote of 60 delegates on Sunday. Initial reports suggested the front-runners were Celia Hammond, former vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, and Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, which some interpreted as a proxy battle between bitter rivals Mathias Cormann and Julie Bishop. However, both have hit heavy weather over the past week, with concerns raised over Hammond’s social conservatism and Watson-Lynn’s past tweets critical of the Liberal Party. Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports that some within the party believe a third nominee, Aurizon manager Anna Dartnell, could skate through the middle.

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports moderate faction efforts to install a male candidate – James Stevens, chief-of-staff to Premier Steve Marshall – in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt are prompting a slew of conservative-aligned women to nominate against him. These include Deepa Mathew, a manager at the Commonwealth Bank and state candidate for Enfield last year; Joanna Andrew, a partner with law firm Mellor Olsson; and Jocelyn Sutcliffe, a lawyer with Tindall Gask Bentley. However, Stevens remains the “overwhelming favourite”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)”

  1. The media had to pay for their trips to Christmas Island with ScoMo and learnt nothing.

    [Morrison and the Immigration Minister, David Coleman, used the press conference to make several points. There are no children left in detention on Nauru and Manus Island. The government has closed 19 detention centres over five years. Boat arrivals have stopped.

    Australians have heard each of these arguments before, usually at no extra charge in a press conference from Parliament House.

    Morrison did not need the tropical backdrop of Christmas Island to make his case. There are perfectly good palm trees in Sydney.]

  2. Morrison has gone full on Trump. The Christmas Island visit is a Trump brainfart. Morrison calls himself a ‘brick wall.’

    The man is nuts .


    In a bid to make themselves relevant to their constituents ahead of the May election, all six QLD Nationals have found a ‘clean coal’ miner’s rebellious spine and signed a letter of demand which was “obtained by The Australian”.

    As Steve here noted early it is expected to “reignite the Coalition’s civil war on energy policy, demanding that Scott Morrison put his shelved “big stick” laws to a vote in budget week and fast-track a decision on the underwriting of a new cleaner coal plant”.

    Why now? Well [1] regional Queensland will take some time to recover from the recent flood decimated crops, machinery, infrastructure and live-stock including and especially in the marginal Labor held seat of Herbert (Townsville) so unemployment has escalated in regional QLD and [2] the employment cure-all in regional Queensland is of course for Scomo to sign contracts to underwrite a “cleaner coal plant in regional Queensland” before the election is called.

    And so say
    Michelle it’s mining Landry of Capricornia 50.6
    Ken O Dear of Flynn 51.0
    George Coalminers son Dawson 53.4
    Llew O where’s Brian of Wide Bay 58.1
    Keith coal Pitt of Hinkler 58.4 and the next leader of the Nationals
    David Daddy will be proud of Maranoa 67.5

    McCormack must have known this letter was coming when he did this train wreck interview with Walid Ali.

    This will not help the Nationals in NSW in either the State or Federal elections to hold off SFF and Indy’s. It makes sense for the QLD Nationals to put a line the sand ahead in an election period and look like they are dissociating themselves from their Liberal LNP brethren so they can save at some of the furniture and maintain a QLD voice in the post-election Nationals Party. More smoke and mirrors.

  4. Scotty is taking his phoney war not an election campaign up a notch today, with his blue arsed fly scattergun virtual Blue Bus Stunt-a-Thon ™ to Perth..

    ScoMoFaux Agenda

    12:30 PM
    Prime Minister Scott Morrison will tour BAE Systems in Perth followed by an address to the media.

    05:30 PM
    Prime Minister Scott Morrison will visit a Vietnamese community centre for a multicultural afternoon tea.

    09:30 PM
    Prime Minister Scott Morrison will join the politics in the pub event in Henley Brook.

  5. While there is a chance that official interest rates will drop soon, the amount would likely be 25 basis points. However, there is absolutely no guarantee the Banks will pass it on in full. That happening during an election campaign would be a poisonous outcome for the Government..

  6. I hope Labor plaster this one all over Australia as a first shot in the locker.

    Maybe, just maybe, the ALP have remembered they are the LABOR party first and foremost and returned to their roots. Its a winner.

  7. Perhaps the point of the “anti-terrorist fence” outside Duttons office is to try and create a perception that he is a victim, and that those attacking him are the real threat to society.
    I hope im overthinking it…. if he can turn around his image from someone who terrorizes people to someone who needs to be protected, then our democracy is in some strife.

  8. Dan Gulberry says:
    Thursday, March 7, 2019 at 6:17 am
    All in all, he’s just another prick who thinks he’s a wall.

    (Apologies to Pink Floyd)

    Made my day Dan!

  9. @ProfBrianCox
    16h16 hours ago

    My timeline is currently populated by people who believe that God is Flat, that Darwin supported brexit and that Jesus is not a greenhouse gas. Or something like that.

  10. Has the Morrison government got a death wish!?!

    Who does Craig Kelly think he is!?!

    Like I have said before, the Nationals need to change their name to The Miners Party. Although, like the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers maybe they should change their name to The Miners, Agribusiness and Science Deniers Party.

    Joizus! If those Coal Mines in the Hunter Valley get approved I’ll even join The Greens’ organised protests against it! 😆

  11. Hey Late Riser- please put me down for 53-47 for both Newspoll and Essential and 52-48 for Ipsos.

    In other news, on a flight to Sydney for work yesterday, I wondered whether fate or fortune had seated me next to PB royalty. My co-passenger in row 14, who’d managed to score several baby bottles of wine during the flight, started yelling (no exaggeration) about his intense dislike of Bill Shorten as we taxied into Mascot. His appalled travelling companion, who it turned out was a Greens voter from a generationally Liberal family, tried to calm him down by saying he was making people uncomfortable (well yeah, just a bit!). The Shortenophobe turned to me and said – “This gentleman isn’t uncomfortable. I’m sure he’d vote Liberal.” I could only smile and say – “sorry to disappoint you mate” and disembark as soon as I could when we docked. Rex/Nath – where were you on the afternoon of the 6th?

  12. The multinational mining giant Glencore spent millions bankrolling a secret, globally coordinated campaign to prop up coal demand by undermining environmental activists, influencing politicians and spreading sophisticated pro-coal messaging on social media.

    An investigation by Guardian Australia can reveal the covert campaign, dubbed “Project Caesar”, was orchestrated by world-renowned political operatives at the C|T Group, the firm founded by Sir Lynton Crosby and Mark Textor.

    Campaign teams helped set up online grassroots groups to push positive messaging about clean coal technology, attack renewables and criticise the Australian Labor party. The practice is commonly known as astroturfing.

    One source with knowledge of Project Caesar said it was linked to Energy in Australia, a Facebook group and website that attacks renewables, while supporting high efficiency, low emissions (Hele) coal plants through data, memes, graphics and video.

    Posts blame renewables for blackouts in South Australia and Victoria, link renewable subsidies to “Saudi billionaires”, and stress a link between solar, wind and rising power prices. The group celebrated the formation of the Monash Forum, a group of federal MPs who speak in support of coal, including Coalition MPs Craig Kelly, George Christensen, and Tony Abbott.

  13. Dutton allocated himself a close personal Federal Police protection squad soon after the establishment of the super ministry.
    This means that a Federal Police Detachment of at least two officers and a police car follows his government car on a trip from, for example the airport to parliament. This is to assure his safety.
    This security service had previously been the reserve of the PM, the Queen and other dignitaries.
    Dutton has serious problems with reality and his contribution to parliament.
    What has Dutton done that warrants such security?

  14. Goll

    Dutton’s aggressive and insulting language is creating the very thing that he is afraid of. He’s scared himself and like a cornered animal, hits out in all directions.

  15. From previous thread…

    Had a fun night yesterday at the home of the ALP, the Unity Hall Hotel, with Ali France, Albo and Stephen Jones for a Dump Dutton fund raiser. Had 150-200 odd people there.

    Ali really is a great candidate. What an inspiration she is.

  16. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. It’s quite a big one today!

    It would appear that The Australian may have defeated Outline. No great loss though.

    Eryk Bagshaw and Shane Wright tell us that global and Australian growth will probably slow even further, the OECD has warned in the wake of figures confirming the national economy has fallen into a ”per-capita recession” for the first time since 2006. And to whom does this belong?
    And Wright opines that when figures like this roll in, it’s best to not mention the economy.
    Greg Jericho tells us how the terrible GDP figures leave the Coalition’s economic narrative in tatters. His many charts are highly illuminating.
    Michael Pascoe writes that car sales figures are even worse than what the headlines suggest. He says the canary in the car yard isn’t singing healthily.
    Michael Koziol reports that the Morrison government will dramatically expand healthcare operations at the Christmas Island Detention Centre to cater for more than 500 refugees and asylum seekers. Why?
    And David Crowe says on this subject that we payed $2000 per minute for a press conference that told us nothing new. He describes it as a cynical and wasteful waste of taxpayer money.
    The SMH editorial sees no logic in the Coalition’s spending splurge on refugees.
    The editorial in The Age tells us that lack of trust is our gravest deficit.
    In his latest book, ‘Rise of the Right: The War on Australia’s Liberal Values’, barrister and commentator, Greg Barns, traces the rise of the hard right in the Liberal Party. Right-wing populists, he finds, are engaged in mutually assured destruction with the remaining party “centrists”.
    The Guardian reveals that the multinational mining giant Glencore spent millions bankrolling a secret, globally coordinated campaign to prop up coal demand by undermining environmental activists, influencing politicians and spreading sophisticated pro-coal messaging on social media.
    Former Jesuit scholastic Jim Barbour explains why the Catholic Church can’t simply return to the way things were.
    Clancy Yeates reports that Westpac is axing bonuses for its 2300 tellers and will instead pay them fixed wages, a move it says will allow staff to focus solely on serving customers, as banks try to regain the community’s trust.
    Meanwhile NAB has named acting CEO Phil Chronican as its new chairman, following the resignation of Ken Henry in the wake of the banking royal commission fallout.
    An emotional Jenna Price is very pleased with Labor’s announcement about abortion policy. She says that together we can ignore the haters and embrace the rights we should all have, no matter who we are.
    Judith Ireland, though, tells us that Morrison has accused Labor of politicising abortions.
    Six Queensland Nationals have demanded Michael McCormack and Angus Taylor take “immediate action” to underwrite new power station construction in regional Queensland, and pass the “big stick” package in the final sitting week of the 45th parliament.
    Adele Ferguson explains how employers that deliberately underpay their workers could face a stint in prison as part of a radical national suite of reforms designed to stamp out worker exploitation and systemic wage fraud plaguing industries across the country.
    And right on cue in its submission to a parliamentary committee into wage theft, the McKell Institute estimates one in five SA workers is underpaid, while nearly one in three do not receive their full superannuation entitlements.
    These academics say that we need more than a website to stop Australians paying exorbitant out-of-pocket health costs.
    Senior managers of the Powerhouse Museum were drunk on vodka and French champagne and guests were sniffing ”substances” at its gala fashion ball, a witness has told a parliamentary inquiry. What the rich and famous get up to?
    Peter FitzSimons reckons Daley wiped the floor with Jones in the on-air stadium debate.
    And Alexandra Smith says the Coalition’s strategy team must be shaking their heads and wondering how Labor managed to steal the agenda so convincingly a fortnight out from the NSW election.
    Private and Catholic schools in NSW will receive $500 million over four years from a Coalition government to build new classrooms to cope with ballooning enrolments.
    John McDuling calls for an inquiry into the impact of the digital platforms on the mental wellbeing of individuals, democracy and broader society.
    Wendy Touhy bemoans the extent of violence against women.
    The Liberal party does not have “a woman problem”, it has “a man problem, and a merit problem and a misogyny problem” according to author, journalist, former political adviser, and feminist bureaucrat, Anne Summers.
    The hit to the Victorian state budget could be worse than feared, as Melbourne property sales set to slump by up to 25%.
    Benjamin Press reports that the disastrous state of Victoria’s recycling system will be the subject of a parliamentary inquiry that will propose solutions to the mounting problem.
    Elizabeth Knight writes that Myer has a fundamental conundrum. It can’t reduce the floor space in its physical stores fast enough to match the decline in sales resulting from the migration to online sales.
    South Australia’s economy was the standout of all states and territories in the last three months of 2018, with strong house prices and positive employment momentum boding well for the future, according to an ANZ report.
    Accused child sex offender Malka Leifer is not fit to be extradited to Australia to face charges, a defence psychiatrist has told a Jerusalem court. This has had a bad small all along the way.
    Meanwhile George Pell will have to wait until June for the appeal against his conviction for sexually abusing two 13-year-old choirboys in 1996.
    Who does this bishop think he is?
    The Independent Australia explains why time’s up for the Catholic Church.,12438
    Shoppers who cheat at self-service checkouts by swiping their avocados through as onions will be the target of spy cameras set to be fitted in some supermarkets across the nation this year.
    The US trade deficit widened in 2018 to $884 billion, bucking Trump’s pledges to reduce it.
    A group of male Republican lawmakers in New Hampshire have come under criticism for a stunt that gun control advocates say was demeaning to victims of gun violence: donning pearl necklaces to apparently mock those testifying in front of them. How classy!
    How Trump’s high school records were hidden.
    Car makers are dreaming up futuristic electric engine sounds to ensure that pedestrians can hear vehicles that lack audible cues like high-revving, howling combustion engines.
    Teetering education company Acquire Learning planned to pour $1 million a month into the pockets of its shareholders including Andrew Demetriou shortly before its collapse left tens of thousands of students stranded. With this Andrew Dimetriou have earned nomination for “Arseholes of the Week”.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe has three more for us today.

    David Pope on the latest economic numbers.

    From Matt Golding.

    What a beauty from Cathy Wilcox!

    John Shakespeare with the Parrot reacting to Daley.

    Matt Davison and the state of the Catholic Church.

    Andre Dyson on the difficulty in accessing a Home Care Package.

    Peter Broelman on Guthrie’s payout.

    And he reminds us of what happened in 2007.

    Glen Le Lievre at the modern Garden of Eden.

    And he fact checks Morrison over negative gearing.

    Justifiably, Sean Leahy is upset about the lack of fluoridisation of water in Queensland.

    Jon Kudelka goes underwater.

    And he puts Christmas Island into perspective.

    From the US

  17. Thank you, BK.
    From the last thread: Dutton would receive many, many death threats. Most of these would probably be white noise.
    Some of them could well come from people who from time to time chop off heads and blow up some women and kids and who would dearly love to kill Dutton.
    It is an unfortunate modern reality that there are people in Australia who daydream about murdering people like Dutton.
    Dutton’s successor will face more or less the same suite of death threats and death wishes.

  18. Morning all and thanks BK. The Oz aside the media has for once called it as it is on the economic news – unambiguously bad.

    The “strong plan” was to loot treasury for ScumMo’s mates. Now we know. BTW remember that suspicious half billion plunge on banking shares just before the release of the Hayne RC report? Two months later, still no mention of any answers on who, and if it was legal?

    Amidst all the incompetent management, lets not lose sight of the need for an RC into government corruption.

  19. Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, March 7, 2019 at 8:07 am
    Wise man from the East blows in to tell locals how to vote.

    Three days of Scomo in the west will not make a jot of difference I suspect PBers from WA will tell us how it goes but I’ve pencilled in Pearce, Swan and Hasluck as more than maybe’s this time around. IF Scomo is doing a three day WA as reported tour they must be worried about WA big time, no ? Standard practice has been to fly in once pre-election, make noises about ‘fairer GST’ for WA and the knick off back to where you came from [ala Abbott, Turnbull]

  20. Good Morning

    David Shoebridge of the Greens tweeted Michael Daley sacking Alan Jones article. Attacking the Liberals for not spending money on hospitals, schools etc.

    Good to see the Greens using actual Labor campaign slogans to back Labor campaigning. I think you call that a Unity ticket 🙂

  21. Goll 722am

    Dutton allocated himself a close personal Federal Police protection squad soon after the establishment of the super ministry.
    This means that a Federal Police Detachment of at least two officers and a police car follows his government car on a trip from, for example the airport to parliament. This is to assure his safety.
    This security service had previously been the reserve of the PM, the Queen and other dignitaries.
    Dutton has serious problems with reality and his contribution to parliament.
    What has Dutton done that warrants such security?

    Goll, you’ve got it around the wrong way – that security detail is there to protect the public from Peter Dutton!

  22. Not to mention the weakness of the global economy as indicated by the OECD report.

    What we need to see is a rebalancing of the Australian economy to cope with it. Less tax concessions for the already wealthy and more money in the pockets of those who aren’t so well off.

  23. EB,

    Personally, I believe Morrison is in witness protection atm. The NSW Libs didn’t want him anywhere near the local campaign, the bad news on the economy and prattling on about AS and Christmas Island.

    The qualitative research on Morrison’s status in the community must be awful.

  24. Thanks GG

    I try to console myself with the reminder it is only 9 more weeks to the election if it is May 18th. It is not working. Time to walk the dog and forget about Scomo for half an hour 😀

  25. ScoMo probably wanted a long lead-up to the election to give him time to get all his ‘messages’ out. Instead, I think he’s given the electorates (and his desperate team) time to wish it could all be over.

  26. I wonder why Murdoch suddenly has this sort of article. It’s quite out of character since ‘Fraudband’ was originally designed to keep him happy.

    Two-speed NBN failure

    A “multi-technology mess” means the NBN will fall short of its basic benchmark in delivering fast internet speeds evenly across Australia. (Oz headline)

  27. C@t

    Sam Maiden reported yesterday that Frydenberg “did an Oakeshott”, talked for over 17 mins, presumably to foil any questions, and it wasn’t even an official presser.

  28. Cat

    It’s good to see the Greens and Labor working together in campaigning.

    An important measure of trust if it falls to the Greens to help convince Independents to back Labor not the LNP if it is a minority government

    Edit: Which election regarding the Liberals 🙂

  29. Clancy Yeates reports that Westpac is axing bonuses for its 2300 tellers and will instead pay them fixed wages, a move it says will allow staff to focus solely on serving customers, as banks try to regain the community’s trust.

    FMD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It was not the bloody bank tellers who brought about the Royal Commission . It was the pricks in positions like the twat who had this brain fart of an idea to ‘regain trust’. The Banksters have learnt nothing.

    Yes George Frazis it was all those tellers chasing the $500 ‘mountain’ of cash what done it eh ?

    Westpac will from next month stop paying any bonuses to tellers, and lift their fixed pay by $500 so that affected staff are not left worse off…………………“What it means for our tellers is they can actually just be concerned about providing great service to our customers and making sure that they do whatever they can to meet our customers’ needs,” Mr Frazis said..

  30. Please read if you aren’t yet aware of how the govt is wasting your money while torturing the unemployed.

    I can honestly say some of the worst experiences I’ve ever had regarding Centrelink have been with DES providers. These are not specially trained workers as you may think: educated in health issues or social barriers, empathetic and eager to support. Most of the time I have had case workers with far less education than me, with little life experience and no clue as to the reality of my medical conditions. I try very hard to hold onto my self-worth in these appointments. Many times, I don’t succeed. But I must attend, or risk having my payments suspended.

    …The system we are forced to use is not a mutual obligation, but a system of relentless bowing and humiliation – being forced into pointless busy work like unrecognised courses to feed this government’s insatiable need to make the unemployed “do something”. Feeding the idea that us “lazy slobs”, as they like to paint us, need beating into submission. And all this mutual obligation is overseen by Job Networks and DES providers who profit off punishing us for the tiniest infractions. They profit from bullying their clients and using taxpayer money to fund these activities, all in the name of making us “leaners” remember our place.

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