New South Wales election minus two weeks

Ballot paper draws bring bad news for One Nation and the Liberal Democrats – but very good news for Shooters Fishers and Farmers, who are reportedly giving the Nationals quite a bit to think about.

Developments:

• Nominations closed on Wednesday and the ballot paper draws were conducted yesterday. Only the Coalition, Labor and the Greens are contesting every lower house seat – the most prodigious of the micro-parties are Sustainable Australia (55 lower house candidates), Animal Justice (48) and Keep Sydney Open (42). One Nation are only contesting 12 seats in the lower house, and have drawn the last column out of 20 on the Legislative Council ticket. The Liberal Democrats have not sustained their usual good luck on this score, scoring the fifteenth column, to the right of Liberal/Nationals in the eleventh column, reducing their prospects of scoring votes from confused Coalition supporters. The lead One Nation and Liberal Democrats candidates are, respectively, Mark Latham and David Leyonhjelm. I will update my election guide over the weekend to include full candidate lists, and add a few more bios and candidate pics where appropriate.

• The big winner from the upper house draw is Shooters Fishers and Farmers, who have the first column – which, by the assessment of Andrew Clennell in The Australian, means they are “in good shape to win a third upper house seat”. The report also relates that internal polling – it does not say whose – has the party looking competitive in the Nationals-held seats of Barwon and Murray, with their primary vote in the high twenties and the Nationals in the low thirties. A report in the Daily Telegraph yesterday spoke of polling showing the Nationals primary vote on 35% in Barwon, down from 49.1% in 2015.

• My election guide now features betting odds for each electorate from Ladbrokes, with the curious exception of Blacktown, on which they aren’t taking bets for some reason (probably administrative oversight). Whereas Ladbrokes is offering $1.87 on both the Coalition and Labor to win the election (see the sidebar for the regularly updated odds), the seat markets favour the Coalition, with the Coalition favourites in 49, Labor in 38 and others six (i.e. all the incumbents and no more). Labor are favourites to gain the Coalition-held seats of Coogee, East Hills, Tweed and Upper Hunter.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

45 comments on “New South Wales election minus two weeks”

  1. NSW LC is probably the one place where Leyonhjelm could do some good and it’s the only time he gets a dud ballot draw, bugger.

  2. One Nation have won the race to the bottom. Surely with that achieved, they can just pat themselves on the back and pack it in?

  3. Is the disputing party required to give an undertaking to pay the delay costs if they are ultimately unsuccessful?

  4. DVC @ March 7, 2019 at 10:06 pm (Old thread)

    I’m not sure. Alex Greenwich is supportive of all the KSO policies. So I assume there has been an agreement. He might be directing people to vote KSO in the upper house, will just have to wait for the HTV.

  6. KSO mentioned on Facebook that they are running in anti-lockout Greens seats as they believe they won’t jeopardise their re-election, where as they aren’t running against anti-lockout Greenwich as in that seat it might put him at risk of falling to the Libs. Mentioned they will still have a heavy volunteer presence in Sydney.

  10. “Cud Chewer says:
    Friday, March 8, 2019 at 11:39 am
    What the hell is the ‘keep sydney open’ party?”

    Isn’t it the people protesting about the lockout laws and the effect on nightlife and live music?

  11. Yes, they turned their massive anti-lockout following into a political party with the aim of sitting in the Legislative Council.

    They have 65k Facebook followers, which is more than any other NSW political party (NSW Labor are about 57k, Liberals and Greens about 30k each).

    They also have 4 times more followers than NSW Labor on Instagram.

    Platform is anti lockout, pro pill testing and drug law reform, general anti nanny state stance (but progressive rather than libertarian).

    Very popular in my age group, who knows if that is enough to make a quota.

  14. Gareth – that’s the point of the Greens as a minority party they expand the conversation about policy till either it becomes mainstream or they can get a major party to sign on – or unless they get into a coalition with labor as they have in the ACT where they can get certain parts of their program into the coalition agreement

  15. MT endorsed Liberal MP Bruce Notley-Smith of Coogee by a video
    It is the second most marginal Liberal seat of NSW parliament.

    https://amp-news-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/politics/malcolm-turnbull-gives-his-first-election-endorsement-after-refusing-to-back-dave-sharma/news-story/25188698d4818325f4bf037fb9741cdf?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.news.com.au%2Fnational%2Fnsw-act%2Fpolitics%2Fmalcolm-turnbull-gives-his-first-election-endorsement-after-refusing-to-back-dave-sharma%2Fnews-story%2F25188698d4818325f4bf037fb9741cdf

  16. Doug @ 4:41 pm

    Broadly yes.

    NSW is odd in that it has the most moderate Liberal party, the most centrist Labor party and the most divided Greens in the country. I’m hoping KSO will reset some of these policy discussions, without the internal politicking that seemed to have infected the NSW Greens over the past couple of years.

  19. Daley was good, measured, across the detail and with clear talking points.
    Glad was shrill, continually interjecting with her, “dont lie, don’t mislead, just tell the truth”, mantra.
    Bridget “gla gla gla” Glanville had her own cheap shot at the start with an allegation Dayley was three sheets in parliament one day 10 years ago.
    Gladys sounded like a petulant schoolgirl. Not a good look.

  20. I watched the ABC ‘debate’. Bridget Glanville found it a bit hard to extract polite behaviour and ensure a fair heaing for both leaders.
    Both of them did fairly well in their opening address, but after that it was a debacle for Gladys.
    Gladys was hectoring during Daley’s questions, interrupting constantly to the point of both embarassing herself and looking desperate.
    When it came to her own turn to speak she was laughably scripted, repetitively declaring herself to be “incredibly proud” about every single sentence she uttered.
    It was a bit hopeless as the half hour time constraint didn’t realy allow the key issues to be responded to in any depth.
    Daley was a bit scratchy when put on the spot about previous council dealings, but strong on stadiums, rural sector and the environment.

  21. Mind you, Dayley had his own sly dig at Glad’s ahem, “confirmed bachelorette” status with his concern about climate change and the world his kids and grandkids will inherit.

  25. “Dee Madigan and Peter Fitzi are hardly Tories.”

    Yeah, Dee’s no tory even though she’s in advertising. I know Peter. I like Peter. At heart he’s a small L liberal. Photios. Enough said. Then there is the compare Granville. The third Tory I was referring to.

  26. Gladys came off as arrogant and out of touch during that ABC interview. I usually quite like her, but certainly I am warming more to Daley at this point as he seems to be able to articulate good policies and not just sprout scripted talking points.

    Been on the ground in Coogee in the past few days and the general mood is people aren’t happy with the Liberals, but still like Bruce Notely-Smith despite his party. I think it will be close but Labor will pull through as people hate the Light Rail, the loss of trees and the stadiums.

  30. https://www.smh.com.au/education/enrolments-in-catholic-schools-fall-as-independent-schools-grow-20190308-p512ud.html

    Enrolments in Australia’s Catholic schools have fallen for the second year in a row, while the number of students attending government and independent schools grows, new figures show.

    The Australian Bureau of Statistics data comes as the Coalition’s election pledge to triple its annual spending on building classrooms for non-government schools shapes as the most divisive education pledge of the NSW election campaign so far.
    :::
    Labor has not revealed whether it will match the Coalition’s promise.

  32. “Tories everywhere according to you. Dee Madigan is a labor strategist.”

    You dont do this reading and comprehension malarkey particularly well do you Peg. I said that Dee wasn’t one of the three I was talking about …

  33. AE

    ditto for Henry then with his

    Dee Madigan and Peter Fitzi are hardly Tories.

    Unsurprisingly your need for a pot shot at me and not Henry trumps all.

  35. Steve777 – thank for the link to the Upper House Ballot paper.

    I think

    Group G is “Seniors United Party of Australai”
    Group H is the Monaghans, two indepedents
    Group L is an independent group led by Jeremy Buckingham who is in upper house (has quit Greens)
    Group S is “Science Party” (formerly the Future Party)

    Does anyone know whether the ones that are “parties” but un-named on the ballot are by choice, or because they don’t qualify under the requirements to be officailly recognized as parties in NSW?

  36. Dave from Wagga

    You would imagine they must have done voting intention also. Will be interesting.

    I see you are confident about Joe McGirr being re-elected in Wagga Wagga. I think the Nationals generally are in for a shellacking – there was visceral anger against the government in general but the Nationals in particular when I was out in Western NSW late last year, mainly about the Darling and Menindee Lakes, and that was before the massive fish kills.

    So I think the Nationals could well lose that seat of Barwon (which includes Broken Hill), and maybe a few other regional seats. Then after the NSW election debacle Barnaby Joyce will declare that he can be their party’s ‘saviour’ and challenge Michael McCormack, maybe in Federal Budget week in April.

    Monday April 1st would surely be the most appropriate day for such a challenge.

  38. “AE

    ditto for Henry then with his

    Dee Madigan and Peter Fitzi are hardly Tories.
    Unsurprisingly your need for a pot shot at me and not Henry trumps all.”

    This is a poor comeback. I responded to Henry, fully explaining what I meant by “3 liberals of differing shade of torydom at 9:11pm last night, vis-

    “Yeah, Dee’s no tory even though she’s in advertising. I know Peter. I like Peter. At heart he’s a small L liberal. Photios. Enough said. Then there is the compare Granville. The third Tory I was referring to”,

    – before you jumped in with your prissy little snark at me at 9.05am this morning! Yet you bleat like a ruptured choirboy when I point out your poor comprehension skills. That’s not a “pot shot” – that is rebuttal, and given your inept contribution it ‘twas like shooting fish in a barrel with a mini-gun.

    You would have been better off taking me to task for my terrible spelling. That would have been fair and accurate criticism.

  40. @Conor: People don’t hate the light rail. They hate the way it’s been handled and the endless delays. Certainly you’re not going to find many UNSW students who lined up in a line of 1000 at a time at Central at the start of the term to get a bus to Kensington who are going to complain when it’s running.

  42. https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/berejiklian-government-poised-to-lose-nationals-seats-yougov-poll/news-story/90e97cca9a5e139f98853bab861eaf06

    Berejiklian government poised to lose Nationals seats: YouGov poll
    Anna Caldwell, NSW Political Editor, The Daily Telegraph
    31 minutes ago

    EXCLUSIVE: The Berejiklian government is poised to lose a string of Nationals seats, as new polling confirms support for the government has plummeted in two key electorates.

    An exclusive YouGov Galaxy poll conducted for The Daily Telegraph shows the Nationals are on the cusp of losing Barwon and Lismore — key battleground seats that could contribute to putting the government in minority.

    Today’s poll has the Nationals on track to lose the north coast seat of Lismore and trailing the Labor Party in a tight two-party preferred result of 49/51.

    And in Barwon, the Nationals are in a fierce contest with the Shooters Fishers and Farmers Party, who are just trailing the government 51/49 — a narrow win for the incumbents but a result too close for comfort.

    The poll is based on a sample of 502 voters in Barwon and 588 voters in Lismore.

  44. Whilst. It accurate, I reckon that seat polls have some utility in showing whether the swing is really on. … the swing is really on. …

  45. Sure, all the polls are pointing to a swing against the government (and not really much too Labor, but in an OPV environment that might not be a massive problem for them), but the individual seat polls really have as close to fuck all predictive power for the individual seat result as you can imagine. Maybe individual seat betting has less predictive power but it’s a close run thing.

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