There haven’t been any new polls this week, so the headline to this post isn’t news as such – the point is that a new thread is needed, and this is it. Developments worth noting:
• We do have one new poll, but it was privately conducted and so doesn’t count as canonical so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The poll in question was conducted by uComms/ReachTEL for Greenpeace last Wednesday from a sample of 2134, and has primary votes of Coalition 38.8%, Labor 36.7%, Greens 9.7% and One Nation 6.1%. A 53-47 two-party split is reported based on respondent-allocated preferences, but it would actually have been around 51.5-48.5 based on preferences from 2016. The poll also features attitudinal questions on carbon emissions and government priorities, which you can read all about here.
• The Greens have landed a high-profile candidate in Julian Burnside, human rights lawyer and refugee advocate, to run against Josh Frydenberg in the normally blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. This further complicates a contest that already featured independent hopeful Oliver Yates, former Liberal Party member and chief executive of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.
• The Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin will be determined by a vote of 60 delegates on Sunday. Initial reports suggested the front-runners were Celia Hammond, former vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, and Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, which some interpreted as a proxy battle between bitter rivals Mathias Cormann and Julie Bishop. However, both have hit heavy weather over the past week, with concerns raised over Hammond’s social conservatism and Watson-Lynn’s past tweets critical of the Liberal Party. Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports that some within the party believe a third nominee, Aurizon manager Anna Dartnell, could skate through the middle.
• Tom Richardson of InDaily reports moderate faction efforts to install a male candidate – James Stevens, chief-of-staff to Premier Steve Marshall – in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt are prompting a slew of conservative-aligned women to nominate against him. These include Deepa Mathew, a manager at the Commonwealth Bank and state candidate for Enfield last year; Joanna Andrew, a partner with law firm Mellor Olsson; and Jocelyn Sutcliffe, a lawyer with Tindall Gask Bentley. However, Stevens remains the “overwhelming favourite”.
Re: Burnside, I think the Greens accepted him as a candidate because of his past works (and his wife?), which is fair enough in their view.
rhwombat
Boerwar @ #1952 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 9:35 am
RHW, IMO, this is the most interesting Bludger fact of the week:
‘Historically, the separation of horses from humans has made a huge difference – horse poo is loaded with Clostridium tetani . This is one of the reasons that battle wounds were 70-80% fatal before the 20th century.’
Thanks, but it is about as relevant to psephology as my last Ipsos guess…
Don’t be harsh on yourself – lots of polling and psephology is indistinguishable from horse manure!
I don’t get the praise for Chalmers. To me he came across as a pleasant lightweight, rolling off his well rehearsed talking points. Nothing he said struck me as insightful.
That being said far better than most Pollie interviews but it’s a low bar.
Psyclaw @ #1992 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 8:57 am
And realistic, too.
#metoo is about sexual abuse, domestic violence, harassment, and molestation. It’s not there to be attached to every case of mansplaining or every to-and-fro between a male politician and a female journalist (or vice-versa).
Less than 11 hours to Newspoll.
Prediction (not of the poll) – Nationals do terribly in NSW election, and when all the Federal MPs return to Canberra, there is a spill for the Nationals leadership, and Barnaby Joyce stands and wins.
On Monday April 1st – how fitting.
“It’s not often you get a prominent conservative ‘old white fogie’ running as a Green.
It shows perhaps a willingness on his behalf to TRY and move away from the past and into the future.
Maybe it might inspire other ‘old white fogies’ to think of the future…. ?”
One TAbbott is trying that old fogie on the road to Damascus routine as we speak.
Perhaps Julian would have been better off going through his catharsis first and getting his ducks in a row before putting his hand up as a Greens candidate. Ya’d think that the Greens, whether they are made up of volunteers or not, would as a now well established political party insist on this and facilitate it before sending Julian out to bat …
Morrison and Frydenberg warn of recession – just shows their incompetence in putting the country in this position.
#LiberalLogic
Did everyone note the excellent Ms Martin’s tidbit that Cormann might resign immediately after the election?
And that it looks like a dark horse will emerge from between Cormann’s (and John Howard’s) preference and JBishop’s preference?
And that the Liberals are already working on planning for sandbagging some seats with loads of the old pork while tacitly giving up their kampf in other seats – which the sitting MPs in the other seats will not like at all?
guytaur @ #2048 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 10:46 am
Joe Hildebrand has paddled himself into a political backwater. He is no longer a heavy hitter in the commentary stakes. He’s not on Sky or the ABC every morning, he’s on a morning fluff program on Channel 10!
JohnCee
They all have their ‘talking-points’. I was comparing him to Chris Bowen, who gabbles breathlessly and is often unclear.
Pegasus says:
Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 10:35 am
It’s all about ownership to you, isn’t it?
I doubt there are any truly original ideas, they all have their origins elsewhere, usually in academia somewhere, so your claim of ownership could be considered plagiarism. 😆
JohnCee @ #2051 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 7:48 am
He is very easy to look at which also works in his favour. Personally I think he’d make a better treasury spokesperson than Chris Bowen, but that’s just my view.
Rocket Rocket @ #2055 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 9:49 am
Please, no. He needs to go away from politics.
The most noticeable thing about Murphy’s contribution on Insiders this morning, is her continuing undisguised devastation at the loss of her Malcolm.
Almost every comment she made can be seen through this lens. Only if Malcolm had been retained…
lizzie @ #2033 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 10:47 am
He’s the best chance of drawing away other conservative ‘old white fogies’ from Frydenberg in the Kooyong electorate.
Simon² Katich® says:
Indeed. The Planck Constant is nothing like a living wage . Plancks Constant is kept over at the Business Council filed under “Numbers Acceptable For Minimum Wage Increases “
Cat
He got there by doing exactly what a few people here are doing to Burnside. Taking the Murdoch character assassination playbook and running with it.
Mr Hildebrand on 10 has a bigger audience than those on Sky after Dark. Politicians should remember this. I know its hard for them and their staff with Sky being beamed to make the Canberra Bubble effect.
Edit: Of course the whole article reads that Labor understands this fact.
Boerwar says:
Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 10:44 am
‘Pegasus says:
Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 10:38 am
Given the lines being run here, I speculate if Frydenberg is re-elected, it will be all the fault of the Greens.’
Excellent point.
Whatever happens in Kooyong, at least we can say that Labor did not pre-select a 70 year old Liberal-voting uber wealthy male, who has opined that $300,000 is a bit tight wage wise, and who belongs to a men only private club and, furthermore, who rabbits on about Shorten instead of Frydenberg, and who comes up with the classic Greens dribble about Lib Lab same same.
–
No Labor did not. But Labor did do a hatchet job on the female candidate for Macnamara and ensured a MALE candidate got the pre-selection to replace that moron retiree in a seat under seige by THE GREENS. Yeah that was really clever-
Publicly stack the pre-selection ahead of schedule to keep out a female candidate and then say the choice was “democratically elected” This will put off women voters who might have switched to Labor from the Liberals and women voters who might have stayed with Labor ahead of the Greens.
There are other examples, but the point is throwing stones at the Greens when LABOR pulled that pre-selection crap in a Melbourne electorate in the same state is hypocritical and lame. Im sure youll find an alternative truth to justify that BW but I won’t be listening.
ar
Does #metoo include attempts by older men to intimidate younger women live on national TV?
Normally I would expect the Greens Illuminati (of which they have an endless supply) to deconstruct these sorts of meanings but they are strangely silent on this blatant attempt by an old white wealthy male to subjugate a young woman on national television.
‘But when you point AT someone, it’s a sign of dominance. The back of the hand is pointing upwards (a clear sign of dominance), and the finger is casting blame… “YOU DIDN’T KEEP YOUR PROMISES!”. Even worse is when you’re poking someone, as you violate their space.’
https://www.simplybodylanguage.com/finger-gesture.html
Oh Golly. Inflamed by Burnsidemania, the Greens are going the full Unicorn!
“He got there by doing exactly what a few people here are doing to Burnside.”
Get a grip mate. Burnside’s wounds are all self inflicted. Folk on here pointing that out doesn’t change that.
sprocket_ @ #2044 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 10:52 am
Her reasoning is based on the lack of logic and reason to it all.
It made no sense from an ideological and policy point of view. The frustration is based on the personal promotion of those involved at the cost of good policy for citizens.
I should point out, for the sake of clarity, that Hume was too far away from Burnside for him to actually poke her with his finger.
And further, to be perfectly fair, it was a sort of half-bent, wavering, finger pointing – as if he knew that the further he dug into his Savage Club hole, the deeper it was getting.
Any person who “rabbits”on about the untruth Burnside only “rabbits” on about Shorten and not Morrison and the Coalition, can not be taken seriously.
Burnside: https://burnside.greens.org.au/page/issues
On asylum seekers, he rightly calls out both major parties.
Late Riser @ #2027 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 7:22 am
You forgot to add that his wife is high profile and instantly recognisable.
If Keneally couldn’t take Bennelong away from Alexander, I seriously doubt Frydenberg can be ousted but that is just my opinion.
This election will throw up some surprises – so you never know. So long as big Clive has well and truly wasted his millions for naught …. that’ll suit me!
Prediction (not of the poll) – Nationals do terribly in NSW election, and when all the Federal MPs return to Canberra, there is a spill for the Nationals leadership, and Barnaby Joyce stands and wins.
On Monday April 1st – how fitting.
As I said before, if this happens, he will become, Barnaby Joyce, National Fool.
Boerwar @ #2068 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 10:56 am
Every time Burnside points his finger a Greens fairy falls through the gap.
Andrew Earlwood
I am not the one posting about one candidate in a safe liberal seat day after day to attack the most credible threat to the Treasurer in that seat.
I did point to the very real attack piece on Mr Shorten. You should read it and see the similarities to what is being said here about Mr burnside.
Darn @ #2047 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 10:46 am
Yes, very disturbing. And not restricted to the US. You can see much the same happening here. The role of the Liberals in government is primarily intended to just keep people occupied while their “mates” rape and pillage 🙁
Boerwar @ #2068 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 7:57 am
I did make the observation yesterday the mere mention of Burnside has a triggering effect on Greens partisans.
Rex
“Morrison and Frydenberg warn of recession – just shows their incompetence in putting the country in this position.”
On this much we agree. P1 posted earlier a link to an Independent Australia article that highlighted just how comparatively badly Australia’s economy is performing.
We shouldn’t be surprised. ScumMo and Co are spending a lot of money at present, but spending it badly. Pumping billions into infrastructure projects that have BCRs below one by definition does not increase our productivity. Nor does misallocated water, an NBN that is not very fast, business welfare for mates, and tax dodges that allow the rich to park billions in tax efficient but inactive investments. These all drag our economy down. Our GDP is $1800 billion. Every $18 billion wasted is a waste of 1% of GDP. The set of waste items I listed above easily exceeds $18 billion.
The Liberals were not much better economic managers under Costello, but the mining boom was so huge they could waste half of it and still have largesse to buy votes with. Now it is gone and their incompetence is plain to see.
If McCormack is to go (and he is hopeless), then Brigid McKenzie (who is also hopeless) should replace him, if only for the “optics”.
That won’t happen though, they’ll replace him with the beetrooter (who is the worst of the lot), if only to save those lard arses in FNQ.
Barney
Have you got down to the tip of the peninsula? 36 degrees and humid – any rain yet?
Also – can people there understand your Vietnamese?
Confessions @ #2061 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 11:02 am
It goes the logic of Labor partisans tearing down Burnside to the benefit of Frydenberg.
According to EB it seems 50% female representation for Labor is not good enough and that every candidate should be female.
I knew they’d have to change the rule and bring in quotas for men! 😆
Boerwar
Unless it was just a rude journalist appropriately having their lack of manners pointed out.
‘poroti says:
Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 10:54 am
Simon² Katich® says:
BW
I am no fan of a UBI.
I am not sure what you are asking. A living wage isnt like the Planck constant.
Indeed. The Planck Constant is nothing like a living wage . Plancks Constant is kept over at the Business Council filed under “Numbers Acceptable For Minimum Wage Increases “’
What I am asking is this. Under current economic conditions, what is a living wage and how do we get there?
Is it a vague statement of hope?
As far as I can understand it, the reasons for wage stagnation throughout the western world’s advanced economies are:
1. robotics
2. digital revolution
3. shift of work to third world economies
4. globalized economy
In Australia we can add: hostile IR laws, complete lack of policing of wage theft, a couple of hundred thousand foreign workers who are prepared to work for cash and who are totally incapable of fighting for wage justice, even if they wanted to.
What I would like to know is this: is Labor going to do something radical about 1-4? Because it is hard to see sustained wages growth with those four major economic policy settings.
If Shorten and Chalmers are going to run a campaign on a ‘living wage’ they had better be ready with more than Chalmers had to offer on what a ‘living wage’ is, and how we get there.
IMO, a vague aspiration, along with some minor tweaks to the restoration of sunday penalty rates will not fix Australia’s wage stagnation problem.
Boerwar @ #2071 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 7:59 am
This bit wasn’t shown on Insiders, but he went on to say, when asked if he had made public calls for the Savage Club to allow women members that “You don’t argue private matters in public.” I still think that in the context of the discussion, that is a bizarre response given how domestic violence against women was covered up on grounds that it was a private matter. I agree his wounds have been entirely self inflicted.
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/1103957472266530818
Henry:
I reckon the Nats should bring back John Anderson. He at least carried himself as a statesman.
But seriously, I don’t get the need to replace McCormack. He hasn’t been that bad, surely?
”Henry says:
Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 11:03 am
If McCormack is to go (and he is hopeless), then Brigid McKenzie (who is also hopeless) should replace him, if only for the “optics”.
That won’t happen though, they’ll replace him with the beetrooter (who is the worst of the lot), if only to save those lard arses in FNQ.’
Ms Murphy it was, I believe, who gave a fairly good run down on this on Insiders this morning. Joyce has a rusted on 6-7 votes out of the 22. But there are others who would die rather than let Joyce back in as leader. How many of those there are, is not clear.
PvO pointed out that what was toxic here was that the Queensland Nats were so obsessed with their own seats that they were prepared to take actions that could well mean the loss of Nats seats elsewhere. (He could have, but did not, mention the letter from six Queensland Nats to the PM demanding that the Big Stick Bill be voted on during the three day sitting during Budget Week.)
Barney in Cà Mau says:
Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 11:06 am
According to EB it seems 50% female representation for Labor is not good enough and that every candidate should be female.
I knew they’d have to change the rule and bring in quotas for men!
—
That’s a pretty poor excuse for what happened in Macnamara and dumb optics in a seat being challenged by a Green candidate; if you knew anything about how it works on the ground you would understand that Barney. Clearly, you don’t.
Labor Councillor Mary Delahunty who lost pre-selection for the Labor held seat of Macnamara to a man, reportedly said women are shunning the Right of the party because they are being shut out of safe seats.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/16/labor-mp-michael-danbys-preselection-meeting-undemocratic-candidate-says
Confessions
See the Waleed Aly interview. McCormack belled the cat. The Nationals back miners not farmers.
Of course you are right that does not make him unique in the Nats. It just makes him the bunny that got caught in the car headlights.
Gina and her mining mates have corrupted the National Party to a point of almost no return.
poroti
Hume is not a journo.
‘poroti says:
Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 11:06 am
Boerwar
blatant attempt by an old white wealthy male to subjugate a young woman on national television.
Unless it was just a rude journalist appropriately having their lack of manners pointed out.’
I have no problem with interviewees dealing with interruptions. Gender-biased subjugation is not one of them.
Interruptions, after all, a stock in trade skill by wannabe broken system fixers like Burnside.
Yes, one of the reasons he nominated for running is that the ‘system is broken’.
Talking about broken systems, are the Greens promising not to be rude to each other any more?
Barney – point taken
Insiders was excellent- I am wondering with 2 months to go, and a new Chair, the ABC is feeling a bit freer to rip into the Coalition…about time.
I watched the 6 hours of the Michael Jackson show (relevant for its parallels with Pell)..it was actually a gripping insight into grooming, cover ups and the destruction of pedophilia involving a prominent person.
What struck me at the end was the casualties; the victim of course, but ultimately it was the mothers that were destroyed- racked with guilt for putting their children in that position. In the show, Jacksons grooming led to a divorce, the father’s suicide, 7 years of abuse, the mothers complete shunning, victims siblings testifying FOR Jackson in early trials, the victms new partners not trusting them around their children etc etc…. Sad.
Burnside is doing a stirling job. I hope Josh gets the money………………leave less for the rest .
.
.
Libs baulk at $1m for Treasurer
Josh Frydenberg
Victorian Liberals are deeply concerned over a push to spend big bucks on Josh Frydenberg’s reelection campaign.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/liberals-baulk-at-1m-war-chest-for-frydenberg-campaign/news-story/36b67cda868ad5e6050a678a6fcc8937
The visuals from that interview depict a privileged white mansplaining member of the patriarchy talking at a woman to put her in her place on International Woman’s Day.