BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)

No new grist for the BludgerTrack mill this week, but there’s a Greenpeace-sponsored federal poll and some preselection news to relate.

There haven’t been any new polls this week, so the headline to this post isn’t news as such – the point is that a new thread is needed, and this is it. Developments worth noting:

• We do have one new poll, but it was privately conducted and so doesn’t count as canonical so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The poll in question was conducted by uComms/ReachTEL for Greenpeace last Wednesday from a sample of 2134, and has primary votes of Coalition 38.8%, Labor 36.7%, Greens 9.7% and One Nation 6.1%. A 53-47 two-party split is reported based on respondent-allocated preferences, but it would actually have been around 51.5-48.5 based on preferences from 2016. The poll also features attitudinal questions on carbon emissions and government priorities, which you can read all about here.

• The Greens have landed a high-profile candidate in Julian Burnside, human rights lawyer and refugee advocate, to run against Josh Frydenberg in the normally blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. This further complicates a contest that already featured independent hopeful Oliver Yates, former Liberal Party member and chief executive of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

• The Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin will be determined by a vote of 60 delegates on Sunday. Initial reports suggested the front-runners were Celia Hammond, former vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, and Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, which some interpreted as a proxy battle between bitter rivals Mathias Cormann and Julie Bishop. However, both have hit heavy weather over the past week, with concerns raised over Hammond’s social conservatism and Watson-Lynn’s past tweets critical of the Liberal Party. Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports that some within the party believe a third nominee, Aurizon manager Anna Dartnell, could skate through the middle.

• Tom Richardson of InDaily reports moderate faction efforts to install a male candidate – James Stevens, chief-of-staff to Premier Steve Marshall – in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt are prompting a slew of conservative-aligned women to nominate against him. These include Deepa Mathew, a manager at the Commonwealth Bank and state candidate for Enfield last year; Joanna Andrew, a partner with law firm Mellor Olsson; and Jocelyn Sutcliffe, a lawyer with Tindall Gask Bentley. However, Stevens remains the “overwhelming favourite”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)”

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  1. zoomster says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 8:00 am
    Julie Bishop on women —

    ‘“Sure, you can have quotas and targets and you can mandate equality, but at the end of the day it’s about attitudes – it’s about how people feel about gender equality,” she said.’

    Quotas work because they change attitudes.

    — Great Post Zoom. Thank you.

  2. RHW, IMO, this is the most interesting Bludger fact of the week:

    ‘Historically, the separation of horses from humans has made a huge difference – horse poo is loaded with Clostridium tetani . This is one of the reasons that battle wounds were 70-80% fatal before the 20th century.’

  3. Only a neo-lib would be against pattern bargaining.

    You have to worry about how cosy some of these relationships are between big corporates and big unions.

  4. Murpharoo actually telling the truth about how Labor can start progress back to wage increases for workers.

    ‘A 3% wage increase leads to a 1% increase in youtth unemployment’.

    Sounds comparable but the 3% increase in wages is across the board and the 1% is only applicable to youth employees.

  7. And this bald statement by the Coalition that you can’t have a growing economy if wages increase is just bunkum. Labor proved you can do both, even in the teeth of the GFC.

  10. zzie says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 8:54 am
    Penny Sharpe
    ‏
    @PennySharpemlc
    57m57 minutes ago

    This is Karyn & one of her kids. Karyn is handing out flyers for her husband @jeromelaxale. In what universe is it ok for the Libs to surround her in this way? This sort of behaviour has to stop. #nswpol #nswvotes @GladysB @nswliberalhq

    —
    That behaviour is disgusting. The Mrs might be fair game [at the extreme] if she is being politically active at the time this photo was taken, but to harass the child just shows you how pathetic and repulsive this mob attitude is among those pathetic zealots. Ughh.

  11. Watching insiders and just showed Bill speaking. As an underlying theme I think the whole “making an economy that works for YOU, not the big end of town” is going to resonate.

    Commentators banging on about can this be done when the economy is weak are missing the point. An economy that works for more people will actually be stronger and more robust. We have a demand problem, NOT a supply problem. Things like restoring penalty rates and increasing Newstart post the announced review) is the way to go to start addressing lack of demand.

    Tax cuts for business may be a valid response to a supply side issue but that is very much NOT where we are at for now.

    This is high school economics and the Libs just dont get it. Or, more likely they do but are lying and spinning to keep the gravy tap open to their mates.

  14. BW

    So, ‘Let them eat poetry’?

    It is a concept that has been around for a while. Billy Bragg wrote that a generation back.

    The Guardian UK have been running a long investigative journalistic effort and publishing a series of tops articles exposing the way working peoples wages have been queezed by unscrupulous big companies through various dubious methods of hiring/contracting. The term ‘living wage’ pops up there regularly.

    The unintended consequence of these dodgy company practices is that it exposed that myth of the market as a reliable arbiter on setting wages.

    (other research and investigative reporting in the UK has further exposed the myths of this magical market and its ‘efficiencies’)

  19. BK @ #1883 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 6:59 am

    Relative to the rest of the world, Australia’s economy now is worse than at any time in the past. It is deteriorating further with each quarterly set of numbers.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/australias-economy-hits-an-all-time-low,12452

    So even with migration at record levels, these liberal clods can’t keep our economy growing. Worse, they simply lie about it and hope no-one will notice how much worse off most of us are. Well, people have noticed!

    Far from being an “advanced” economy, Australia is actually heading for the bottom of the OECD at a rapid rate. And when we reign in our nonsensical and unsustainable levels of migration things will get worse – at least for a while – before they get better.

    Probably time to start battening down the hatches.

  21. Sarah Martin is the local ABC morning radio balance go to girl when they get a group of journos in. Generally it is two journos who have worked within the liberal party or are auditioning to…. and her.

    I have suggested they choose someone from Newmatilda or Independent Aus but been ignored.

    Martin used to work at the Advertiser but must have escaped before her brain melted.

  22. SK
    I am totally sympathetic to reversing the trend to profits from wages even though this will cost me money.
    My questions are these:
    ‘What is a living wage?’
    ‘How do we get there?’
    We have already had the Greens tout a UBI, which would cost the equivalent of the total Federal Government revenue.
    We have had the Liberals promising wage flexibility (aka stagnant wages) as a design feature of their economic plan.
    So, what is a ‘living wage’?

  23. Sorry for yet more on the George Pell saga but it really has become a lightning rod for the culture wars in Australia, since Pell was himself a heavy player in those wars, being none too keen to “turn the other cheek” to ideological opponents.

    Catching up with this story about a catholic paper forced to withdraw a story by a Tasmanian academic who attacked Pell’s accusers, I looked up the academic.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/tas/2019/03/08/church-pulps-pro-pell-column/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Saturday%20News%20-%2020190309

    It was David Daintree of the “Christopher Dawson Centre” at UTas. Who are they?
    “Director of the Hobart-based Christopher Dawson Centre for Cultural Studies, a kind of think tank established to promote the Christian intellectual tradition as an essential component of Western civilisation.”
    http://www.utas.edu.au/profiles/graduates/david-daintree

    No wonder unis not desperately short of cash rejected the Ramsey Centre. The right really cant let go of their culture war.

  25. Boerwar @ #1952 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 9:35 am

    RHW, IMO, this is the most interesting Bludger fact of the week:

    ‘Historically, the separation of horses from humans has made a huge difference – horse poo is loaded with Clostridium tetani . This is one of the reasons that battle wounds were 70-80% fatal before the 20th century.’

    Thanks, but it is about as relevant to psephology as my last Ipsos guess…

  26. imacca,

    As has been said so often here, what’s the easiest way to increase spending in the economy?

    Increase the amount that those who live from one cheque to the next have.

  29. Great line from PvO: Abbott prepared to fight on his knees rather than die on his feet with dignity of standing by his convictions.

  32. rhw
    If we reduced this blog to discussions about numbers and the Burnside Theorem, it would be a dull place.
    I note your reference to ‘before’ the 20th century.
    German WW2 army logistics, away from trains, was horse-powered.

  36. “Only a neo-lib would be against pattern bargaining.

    You have to worry about how cosy some of these relationships are between big corporates and big unions.”

    And yet you were praising Chalmers until I pointed out the problem.

    It’s also interesting to reflect upon how the the acceptance of the anti pattern & sector bargaining position within the labour movement was very much seen as the handmaid of the push for “protected action” (in order to facilitate the ILO Convention on the right to strike). This was driven by the intellectual left out of Victoria and the ACTU. The “big unions” in the main were and remained are opposed to this (unless they saw some tactical advantage in merging with or taking over other Unions). Regrettably the ACTU had the ear of Keating and his then IR Minister back in 1993.

    It’s also worth noting that the Brereton reforms stand in stark contrast with the NSW approach. Specifically Jeff Shaw’s masterpiece – the 1996 Industrial Relations Act: which contained provisions for enterprise bargaining (even for non union agreements) but didn’t fall into the trap of protected bargaining and was neutral in its terms with respect to other form of bargaining including pattern bargaining and industry wide wage outcomes.

  38. That 52-48 to the Coalition in the marginals is apocryphal. No one has ever laid eyes on it. You’d think that the Liberal Party would have leaked it to The Australian if it was a real thing.

  42. Boerwar

    Let’s be a bit fair n honest.

    Big bad wolf Burnside did not get firm with a lady who dared ask about his men’s club membership.

    He merely objected to her speaking over him as he answered the question. And good on him. Gotcha journos are a blight.

  43. poroti

    Thanks.

    What number is the socially acceptable minimum ATM and how do we get there?

    I am pressing this point because Shorten and Chalmers are saying that this is what the election is going to be about.

  45. Murphy’s final observation takes up my thoughts about Turnbull being knifed and Abbott’s chances in Warringah.

  46. Jana Stewart Twitter:

    Hey Julian, when you go into the Savage Club on Tuesday to cancel your membership, would you mind taking the artifacts out so I can return them to Traditional Owner’s where they belong? My old people would appreciate it. Thanks JS

    Why would Greens hide ?

  48. Boerwar why are you obsessed with Burnside? Along with a couple on here the obsession with the Greens re their relevance is out of whack.

    i get frustrated with Greens and their voting in parliament ie Malaysia Solution and the ETS but to me the focus should be on marginal seats and how to get rid of the Coalition.

    No one will answer did Shorten spend to long on medivac?

    Discussion should be on low wages and lack of job security etc

    This ongoing pissing contest with the greens, trying to personalise the discussion is boring

  49. Psyclaw @ #1974 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 9:57 am

    Boerwar

    Let’s be a bit fair n honest.

    Big bad wolf Burnside did not get firm with a lady who dared ask about his men’s club membership.

    He merely objected to her speaking over him as he answered the question. And good on him. Gotcha journos are a blight.

    I think it’s clear to all by now that Boerwar and other Labor partisans prefer Liberals ahead of Greens.

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