There haven’t been any new polls this week, so the headline to this post isn’t news as such – the point is that a new thread is needed, and this is it. Developments worth noting:
• We do have one new poll, but it was privately conducted and so doesn’t count as canonical so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The poll in question was conducted by uComms/ReachTEL for Greenpeace last Wednesday from a sample of 2134, and has primary votes of Coalition 38.8%, Labor 36.7%, Greens 9.7% and One Nation 6.1%. A 53-47 two-party split is reported based on respondent-allocated preferences, but it would actually have been around 51.5-48.5 based on preferences from 2016. The poll also features attitudinal questions on carbon emissions and government priorities, which you can read all about here.
• The Greens have landed a high-profile candidate in Julian Burnside, human rights lawyer and refugee advocate, to run against Josh Frydenberg in the normally blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. This further complicates a contest that already featured independent hopeful Oliver Yates, former Liberal Party member and chief executive of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.
• The Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin will be determined by a vote of 60 delegates on Sunday. Initial reports suggested the front-runners were Celia Hammond, former vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, and Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, which some interpreted as a proxy battle between bitter rivals Mathias Cormann and Julie Bishop. However, both have hit heavy weather over the past week, with concerns raised over Hammond’s social conservatism and Watson-Lynn’s past tweets critical of the Liberal Party. Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports that some within the party believe a third nominee, Aurizon manager Anna Dartnell, could skate through the middle.
• Tom Richardson of InDaily reports moderate faction efforts to install a male candidate – James Stevens, chief-of-staff to Premier Steve Marshall – in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt are prompting a slew of conservative-aligned women to nominate against him. These include Deepa Mathew, a manager at the Commonwealth Bank and state candidate for Enfield last year; Joanna Andrew, a partner with law firm Mellor Olsson; and Jocelyn Sutcliffe, a lawyer with Tindall Gask Bentley. However, Stevens remains the “overwhelming favourite”.
The contrast between these campaign launches are stark.
A good preview of the Federal Launches I expect. To be fair the NSW LNP did talk infrastructure.
I expect the Federal version will be more boats than infrastructure.
It is interesting how the parties are reacting to the death of Neo Liberalism
I am flattered by the resurgence of derisory comments about me. The usual suspects are reverting to type and can not restrain their childish or head-kicking tendencies.
As far as I am concerned it is positive feedback so go for it, though as I consistently politely request – creative put-downs and witticisms are appreciated..
“”Christopher Pyne still strangely likeable despite everything””
He’s a nasty horrible little man, he is behind all the sneaky things this government has been up to.
Is that you Luke Shaw?.
“It is interesting how the parties are reacting to the death of Neo Liberalism”
About as interesting to seeing you enagaging in your own fantasies.
Perhaps you can illuminate us on the great Roosevelt-Nixon era of world politics.
Michael Daley, slamming the back door shut to over development in NSW!
Andrew Earlwood
Read the book The Mess We Are In by Bernard Keane.
He calls himself a lapsed Neo Liberal acolyte.
Someone should tell Scott Morrison, it’s not the Economy, stupid!
It’s the people who power the Economy.
Labor connects with normal people….
“Schools, hospitals and supporting live music have been flagged as the keynotes of NSW Labor’s election campaign.
Federal Opposition leader Bill Shorten said the March 23 election was a contest of values with Labor pledging to put people first.
Speaking at the party’s official campaign launch on Sunday in Revesby in Sydney’s southwest, Mr Shorten described opposition leader Michael Daley as a “great bloke”.
“He is a man who loves his family and loves the community and genuinely cares about helping people,” Mr Shorten said on Sunday.
“He will always stand up for normal people.” The event kicked off with a live music performance by Mahalia Barnes – the daughter of Australian rock legend Jimmy Barnes – taking aim at the coalition’s attack on music festivals and venues.
The singer said she’s seen the music scene “drastically change” in the past eight years and is now “crushed”.
Opposition music spokesman John Graham told the crowd Labor will save music and venues if Mr Daley is elected on March 23.
The launch was attended by former Labor foreign affairs minister Bob Carr who was NSW premier between 1995 and 2005 and the state’s first female premier turned senator Kristina Keneally.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/bill-shorten-tells-nsw-labor-launch-michael-daley-will-put-people-first/news-story/0e1d2dab6461c91b1dadbfb0b233e78a
zoomster @ #2202 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 12:45 pm
Yes, Pegasus hasn’t been able to restrain herself. Aided and abetted by the other Greens partisans. Sad.
Labor are in fine form at the moment. So much better than even just 8-10 years ago when they were on the wrong side on most progressive issues and their grassroots campaigning was non-existent. Shorten is not charismatic but he must get some credit for the current rejuvenation of the ALP (of course it is the result of many people not just one). It’s quite beautiful to see it all working like this.
I actually think Berejiklian comes across very well as Premier of NSW, I prefer her to Daley but like Turnbull she is being let down massively by her party. From my perspective she is carrying the LNP’s whole election campaign by herself whereas Daley, who is already unexpectedly competitive in a 1v1, has a solid machine behind him.
I think Scott Morrison gave Gladys Berejiklian the Judas hug. 😆
I missed the comment on free travel on the Opal Network. Was that just children?
Driving this morning and listened to the Cassidy hosted program (which I never listen to or watch).
What was absent was the response of what submission the Labor Party put to the Fair Work Commission at the most recent Wage case.
And what position was put by the government.
I seem to recall the government deferring to the positions put by Employer Organizations, generally opposing any wage increase.
Labor made a submission.
As did the Unions.
So Labor and the Unions had a limited success over the Employer Organizations and their government in that forum.
Luke,
Bill Shorten is the master of political snooker. And, take my word for it, Michael Daley is actually a nice guy and Gladys Berejiklian is not a nice person. Her performance in Newcastle let you see a little of what I have been told goes on a lot behind the closed doors of the Coalition party room.
guytaur @ #2212 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 12:57 pm
Yep. School children get to travel free on their Opal card, to and from school.
This NSW Election feels to me a bit like the 1995 QLD State Election. Wayne Goss narrowly retained Government (subsequently lost when Mundingburra was forced back to the polls in 1996).
His issue was the “Koala Highway” which lost him seats in SEQ.
The Keating Government was mightily unpopular and the Labor Brand on the nose.
NSW might just go the same way with Stadiums being the “lightning rod”.
Cat
Damn I understand the cost issues but boy if it extended beyond just school children that would be a real vote winner.
“His issue was the “Koala Highway” which lost him seats in SEQ.”
Wasn’t the Koala Highway the first of Hettie Johnson’s causes?
“I think both sides have gone a touch overboard with Burnsgate”
LOL! Just a little bit wot!! 🙂
Considering that the election outcome will most likely result in the ALP having a significant majority in the HoR regardless, I’ll simply be happy with anyone knocking off FryThePlanet.
C@tmomma @ #2194 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 12:59 pm
The ‘dark elements’ of NSW politics…
Davidwh says:
Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 12:23 pm
Won’t it be good when the election is over and Labor and the Greens are buddy-buddy in the Senate passing all those Labor policies 🙂
Very nice comic touch, Davidwh. We know the Gs will line up against Labor all the time as they invariably have done. The last thing – the very last thing – they want to see is a successful majority Labor government implementing its platform. They will salt the soils for Labor.
As usual, Sundays on PBers always produces interesting commentary. Always views worth debating.
My onebobsworth’s contribution.
I thought Insiders today was well done. While the three guests on the couch are hardly Labor friendly, some devastating commentary on the state of the Coalition. Some thoughtful comments- such as “surviving on your knees rather than dying on your feet” and ” purity before victory” particularly revealing.
Chalmers came across as well prepared ( or schooled, if you prefer) but the presentation was good compared to Reynolds interview which ,while she was obviously unprepared, was little short of a disaster. Like Price, a waste of time politically, which is indicative of desperate straits for the Coalition.
As a Greens supporter, I felt that selected cut showing Burnside pointing the finger was a bad image for the Greens. ( obviously intentional, but the same cut has been on other commentary, so its relevant, I think). He may be a barrister used to emotive argument and imagery, but I think it showed him up in a poor light in the current male v female candidacy and middle-aged white men contexts . I have reservations about his selection but time will tell there.
The comment about Cormann at the end indicate that he is very much diminished as a politician. There obviously is no “broad church” in the WA Liberals. If he does go after the election, even in his fairly strong Liberal seat, another election so soon after a Federal one won’t win more votes for his Liberal replacement.
A hung parliament or minority Lib government in NSW is more likely than a Labor win. Most of the Indies would probably support a Liberal Government on supply and other issues but would demand their ounce of flesh in exchange. Could be difficult for Gladys then. A hung parliament or narrow victory to the Libs would make the next election very problematic for the Libs. Would Gladys do the conventional thing with recent NSW Premiers and jump ship before then?
Regarding Scommo’s taxpayer funded trip to Christmas Is., that seems to have achieved SFA and Shorten’s comments along with the panel would indicate another move sunk without a trace.
Add to that Morrison having to “explain” his ” misunderstood” comments on World Womans Day,and Liberal tacticians must be wondering what next with “motor- mouth”.
All in all, a picture of a Party leaderless, policyless, disfunctional and fractured. And one who doesn’t need friends like the Nationals in its hour of greatest need. Talk about a perfect storm.
Now to the Newspoll. No guessing here,but if its showing support up for the Government, well, logically, one would have to question its validity.
Morrison just interviewed on 24.
He is talking about campaigning during the NSW campaign. 🙂
Yeah Upnorth, I would have said inertia will get LNP across the line this time in NSW but in the Internet age inertia is not what it was…
C-momma, I agree he is master tactician but that’s also been Shorten’s problem: historically he’s been all means and no ends. But to his credit (and the leadership rule change instituted by Rudd which is a massive part of why ALP is stable at the moment) he has teased out a fairly comprehensive platform that does not look bolted on to him, it even kind of suits him.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 1:03 pm
“His issue was the “Koala Highway” which lost him seats in SEQ.”
Wasn’t the Koala Highway the first of Hettie Johnson’s causes?
———————————————————————————-
I think you’re correct there Andrew. It’s her neck of the woods.
During the Mindingburra By-Election we were doing well. Our star candidate, Townsville Mayor – Tony Mooney, was polling well. Good reception whilst door knocking. Keating (after being urged to wait by Goss) called the 1996 Federal Election the Sunday before the By-Election. From that afternoon it was all down hill. The punters had their baseball bats out. I feel Australian’s are waiting for Morris-Con to fire the gun to get rid of them.
I don’t know why zoomster is asserting that the Greens are at a low electoral ebb. They have never held this many seats. Taking Northcote from the ALP despite a record swing to the ALP in Victoria demonstrates the future of these inner city seats.
Rex, Peg
The federal election date is not yet announced. Victorian Greens had a lot of problems regarding candidates vetting during Victorian State election. Samantha Ratnam , Victorian Greens leader ( is she still Victorian Greens leader), stated during the state election campaign that vetting process issues are resolved and everything will be fine in future.
So why did Victorian Greens announced the candidature of Burnside without proper vetting. If they had done some simple vetting like what is your occupation, what are your associations and clubs, they would have known that he was a member of Savage club and could have asked him to resign from the club before announcing the candidature.
It appears they didn’t do the vetting . They got a star candidate and announced his name for coming election. As Confessions suggested he would have been better off standing as an independent (supported by Greens) and he need not have to resign from the club.
See no dirt on Oliver Yates (the other independent candidate) till now.
Now I have a feeling that Burnside will withdraw his candidature, which would be a shame. It is all because of Greens poor vetting process.
I don’t know if it has been posted up re Peter Fitzsimmons, in company with his wife and Abbott having a cup of coffee with them at the Coffee Shop meeting.
Just for your information.
Peter is married to TV presenter Lisa Wilkinson formerly of the Today Show fame.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/10/linda-reynolds-stumbles-on-wages-growth-in-tv-interview
🙂 Backflip with pike. Shows that she is “flexible” at least. 🙂
Suggestion on Twitter that I would endorse. Burnside would be a good antagonist to those old dinosaurs on Senate benches.
Burnside apparently took his wife’s advice.
It is one of those weird things about compulsory preferential voting that there is a slight trough in the middle where an election that swings across the centre can keep a government in power but reliant on cross benchers that might drag it further from the direction the electorate went. It’s almost better to go into opposition or to reach across the isle and find unusual configurations than to pander to your worse demons.
“Now I have a feeling that Burnside will withdraw his candidature, which would be a shame. It is all because of Greens poor vetting process.”
But … but … they are only volunteers. Surely they should get a leave pass from the necessary professionalism required to actually … like, get their shit together! Bad Labor partisans for pointing out the obvious. Labor Baaaad!
Onebobsworth @ #2222 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 10:07 am
Cormann is in the Senate. Therefore if he quits after the election he’ll just be replaced by whoever was next on the Liberals Senate ticket who didn’t get elected. No net loss for them and no net gain for any other party.
https://twitter.com/tictoc/status/1104529642273234944
LR re: newspoll.
Put me down for 53 – 47 to alp pls.
“Cormann is in the Senate. Therefore if he quits after the election he’ll just be replaced by whoever was next on the Liberals Senate ticket who didn’t get elected.”
And would that make the awesomely capable and astute Sen Cash the senior Liberal from W.A. ??
Gotta be good for the Libs. 🙂
“Cormann is in the Senate. Therefore if he quits after the election he’ll just be replaced by whoever was next on the Liberals Senate ticket who didn’t get elected. No net loss for them and no net gain for any other party.”
No. He is a long term senator, so If he goes anytime after the Election there be a casual vacancy, which won’t necessarily be filled by the highest losing candidate on the Liberal senate ticket – the Libs will hold another preselction to fill the vacancy by whatever their internal party processes dictate.
Julian Burnside is a great candidate. 40 years on a bunch of pro bono work for social justice issues. Not just arguing about issues online but actually in front of a judge prosecuting cases on behalf of people in need. Exactly the kind of person I want writing the laws for this country.
As for vetting… this is Julian Burnside, one of the most public figures in Australia from the last 20 years… geez if he hasn’t earned some goodwill and the benefit of the doubt about his character to stand for parliament then no-one can meet your standards and we’ll be stuck with student politicians who have never done anything real in their entire lives.
well said luke.
@KKeneally tweets
This. This is priceless. If you watch nothing else today – this. https://twitter.com/jechalmers/status/1104514235533418496
Government minister when asked whether low wages were a “deliberate” design feature of the Liberals’ economic strategy: “Absolutely not.”
When told it was her Finance Minister who said it: “He’s absolutely right.”
#auspol #speersonsunday #insiders https://twitter.com/JEChalmers/status/1104514235533418496/video/1
nath
‘I don’t know why zoomster is asserting that the Greens are at a low electoral ebb.’
Um, why pick on me? Firstly, I haven’t made any comment to that effect probably for weeks. Secondly, I’m not alone in having that opinion – just take a look at Bludgertrack. The empirical evidence suggests that the Greens are at a low electoral edge.
And, of course, let’s throw in there that voters are leaving the Coalition in droves, around issues which you’d think would see them flock to the Greens. At a time when the Green vote should be booming, they’re stagnating.
Thanks for the free kick.
Andrew Earlwood: “Almost as unbelievable that a group of Bohemians such as the Savage club would be so resistant to joining the 20th Century (let alone the 21st Century).”
Perhaps they take Bohemian Grove as their exemplar?
Luke. Whispering at a Judge, who is likely from the very same socio-economic background as you is an entirely different prospect than the rough and tumble of politics. I’d be prepared to give Julian a break, but politics doesn’t work like that. You are simply baying at the moon if you think it should.
Luke @ #2220 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 1:23 pm
No, apparently Burnside is just an old white fogie who hates women – rather stick with Frydenberg.
zoomster
says:
Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 11:25 am
There’s a missing issue here, which actually explains why the Greens are in trouble electorally.
___________________________________________
I didn’t think it was a ‘kick’. But the Greens have had a mixed results recently but the trajectory, particularly in lower houses is pretty good.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #2238 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 10:22 am
Fair enough. It still amounts to the same number of Lib Senators and the status quo being maintained.
Rocket Rocket says:
Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 10:49 am
Less than 11 hours to Newspoll.
Prediction (not of the poll) – Nationals do terribly in NSW election, and when all the Federal MPs return to Canberra, there is a spill for the Nationals leadership, and Barnaby Joyce stands and wins.
On Monday April 1st – how fitting.
We can but hope, Rockets. If the Nationals are foolish enough to re-elect Joyce at this juncture, they should expect to lose half their own seats and contribute to the practical abolition of the Liberal Party in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide.
“Cormann is in the Senate. Therefore if he quits after the election he’ll just be replaced by whoever was next on the Liberals Senate ticket who didn’t get elected. No net loss for them and no net gain for any other party.”
Support of the Greens is ossifying into enclaves. This is a terrible sign for a mass movement party.
” Our star candidate, Townsville Mayor – Tony Mooney”
I think I see the real problem right there Upnorth. I can remember one election when the LNP decided not to run one of their “independents ” against Mooney a common view in Townsville was that they didn’t need to, as the already their man in the job.