The first Ipsos poll of the year for the Nine newspapers is the best for the Coalition of the five published under Scott Morrison’s prime ministership, with Labor’s lead cut from 54-46 to 51-49 since the December poll. The Coalition gains two on the primary vote to 38% while Labor slips four to 33% (albeit that the last result was something of an outlier, as Ipsos leans on the low side with primary votes for both major parties). The Greens meanwhile are steady on 13%, a characteristically high result for them from Ipsos. The two-party figure is presumably based on 2016 election preference flows – we should have a result for respondent-allocated preferences later (UPDATE: 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences as well).
There is little corresponding movement on leadership ratings: Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 49% and up one on disapproval to 40%, Shorten is down one to 40% and up two to 52% (relatively positive results on leadership ratings being a further peculiarity of Ipsos), and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 46-37 to 48-38. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1200 from Tuesday to Friday, which makes it an imperfect measure of the impact, if any, of the parliamentary vote on asylum seekers on Tuesday.
The same goes for the other poll this weekend, a Queensland-only affair on federal voting intention by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail (state voting intention results from the poll can be found in the post below). The news here for the government is bad, with Labor recording a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, which represents a 6% swing in that state since the 2016 election, and compares with a 50-50 result at the last such poll in November. The primary votes are Coalition 35% (down three on the last poll, compared with 43.2% at the 2016 election), Labor 34% (steady, compared with 30.9%), Greens 10% (up one, compared with 8.8%) and One Nation 8% (down one, and they only ran in a few seats in 2016).
The poll also has a question on the party with the “better plan on border security and asylum seekers” which finds the Coalition leading 44% to 29%, which is a par-for-the-course result for such a question. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810.
Pynes apoplexy just shows there’s truth to the Helloworld rort.
Is David Icke one of the script writers for Doctor Who? (apologies)
JimmyD
What are Corbyn’s “real concrete options” for preventing a no deal Brexit?
Fulvio
I’ve been suffering from the same confusion, since references to tories can sometimes apply to both parliaments, and “when is the next election?” seems applicable too, as does all the name calling.
Late Riser @ #2550 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 2:22 pm
Well we always though Abbott was a reptile. But Cormann is a robot!!!
Cud Chewer, see my response to Poroti on the previous page at 2.57pm.
In short, a no deal amendment in Parliament, and a second referendum.
citizen 315pm
“Kevin Bonham says:
Wednesday, February 20, 2019 at 3:10 pm
I am advised that the deluge of ReachTEL calls in the last 48 hours are for internal refinement processes – not a client poll.”
That is very interesting – I would imagine one thing they are trying to sort out internally is the difference in demographics/voting intention of those who vote prepoll versus those who vote on the day.
But if as I estimated they have polled around 5000 people per federal seat, that information would be pretty valuable if it could be usefully statistically stratified and analysed.
ReachTel probably also want to work out who is contactable, how and when, and the different response rates they can expect.
JimmyD @ #2485 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 1:40 pm
Good. Serves people right for voting for so stupid of a thing as Brexit. The U.S. would merit similar impoverishment over Trump, except that they didn’t actually vote for him.
Yep, and he should be doing it by getting behind Remain and advocating whatever steps are necessary to get from the current position back to Remain.
P1@2:41pm
I asked in my initial post what is wrong with people who voted the way theydid. Anyway what is point in hacking a poll for democrats activist
JimmyD @ #2519 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 3:00 pm
He will not become PM until after Brexit. He perhaps could make the difference between hard and soft Brexit – that’s all.
Among the bizarre claims made by Icke, a former footballer and BBC sports presenter, are that the world is controlled by a cabal of giant shape-shifting reptiles, and that a group of elite Jews bankrolled Adolf Hitler and started several wars.
Just another Middle Aged Male with a Messiah Complex.
I suspect May will put the negotiated Brexit deal before the Commons again at the 11th hour and see if she can get a majority made up of the various factions of the different parties. This may involve not enforcing a Conservative whip so that other parties may be less able to whip their members.
If it doesn’t pass she will cancel Brexit for now at least.
This seems to be the only way she can maintain some sort of consistency in her approach – she tried all she could to give effect to the referendum and if that fails the blame of history will fall on others.
meher baba
I have some sympathy for May, but she made her ‘deal’ by dealing within her own party, which meant the hard-brexiters pretty much had a veto over everything. And then she was surprised when that deal got massacred in the parliament.
If she had instead said she would work with the whole parliament to make a deal, as they were the ones who would ultimately vote on it, she could have come up maybe with something that worked.
Then again, the hard-brexiters in her own party would probably just have maneuvered to sack her.
meher baba @ #2548 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 3:20 pm
Yes, I think that about sums it up 🙂
AR
The point I am making is that time has passed.
Politics has passed the reasonable into the entrenched foxholes positions in the UK making a Hard Brexit inevitable.
Corbyn can no more vote for May’s Deal than May can for Corbyn’s proposal.
The window just after the no confidence motion closed. Instead it was ground hog day
The only ones getting what they wanted are the Hard Brexiteers Group.
It’s delusional to think some miracle is going to happen.
Maybe Sinn Fein will come vote after all. I doubt it.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/let-the-bloodbath-begin-house-prices-in-sydney-and-melbourne-could-halve-in-worst-crash-since-1890s/news-story/5918ea13042d5f819cb13c77629f060a
Must be Labor’s fault – even though they aren’t in government!
Ven @ #2557 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 3:29 pm
You assume it was “people” who voted the way they did. But it probably wasn’t “people”, it was probably a “botnet” (as someone else suggested).
Just caught the Channel 7 news update. I never watch commercial TV, but I was shocked to see that it is even more biased than I assumed. Nothing about the corruption scandal engulfing the government or Cash’s lies, but a whole long segment on how Labor is ‘divided’ on asylum seekers, featuring clips of government ministers sounding confident and reasonable. The whole thing transparently designed to push the government agenda and harm Labor.
Among the bizarre claims made by Icke, a former footballer and BBC sports presenter, are that the world is controlled by a cabal of giant shape-shifting reptiles, and that a group of elite Jews bankrolled Adolf Hitler and started several wars.
_______________________
I hate when they ban grifters like this. It makes us look like a nation of gullible fools who might fall for his con. If he can fleece a few dollars out of the local RWNJ’s good luck to him. Player to player, pimp to pimp.
I agree.
And if Labour were smart they would campaign on a platform of preserving the work of the EU in establishing a European cultural identity ( which is very popular, especially amongst the younger generations for whom being European is a matter of existential identity) while advocating for reforming the EU into a truly democratic organisation focused on prosperity for everybody.
Such reformist pressure is already building on the continent.
The following quote was part of an email I received today from an obviously anti Labor source. The email was shit canning Chris Bowen, who it claimed had said these words.
“The Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) has clearly shown that the unfair Turnbull Govt tax cuts offer no benefit to those who don’t pay tax. This is plainly unfair, that people should not get a tax cut just because they don’t pay tax”.
Can anyone here know if Bowen actually DID say these words? The second sentence just doesn’t sound right to me.
Re Cormann, has anyone asked the obvious question – if the credit card was never processed how were the tickets issued? My experience as a mere pleb is that airlines don’t usually issue tickets until payment is received. Someone would surely have to authorise the issue of flights without payment having been received. Bearing in mind that these are allegedly personal flights.
Mind you, another question is why Cormann is booking through this organisation at all – why wouldn’t he book personal flights through an airline or website like webjet?
ajm @ #2560 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 2:32 pm
Not being cheeky, genuine question. Do you have a date for “the 11th hour”?
PlayerOne – I argue that Corbyn could prevent brexit completely, if he was forced to (he won’t do this willingly).
I agree that a no deal brexit could well be Corbyn’s covert aim, and, ironically, I believe preventing brexit is Corbyn’s only chance at remaining leader.
ajm
I am feeling pretty much the same – she will let the clock run down to midnight, and if they don’t vote for whatever deal she puts on the table, she will delay brexit by three or six months.
But I think that won’t make any difference, and it will be a hard day’s Brexit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yjyj8qnqkYI
Late Riser – my understanding is that the UK can unilaterally delay Brexit any time right up to March 29th – I may be wrong.
There’s no reason whatsoever Brexit can’t be stopped. Corbyn just needs to actually represent his members, voters and country or step aside so someone else willing to do so can have a go.
Should a second referendum arise, what should the choices be? There can only be two, what should they be? May’s Deal or No Deal; Mays Deal or remain; No deal or remain?
Personally I reckon there’s only two ways to stop Brexit at this point: Option 1 is to un-trigger article 50 and then just leave it at that. The politicians take it out of the hands of the voters. Politically, this could be suicide, a large segment of the population would see it as a betrayal. Option two is more realistic, which is to let the voters have another go. But that of course brings up what I said earlier, what would the options be? For example, why should remain be an option at all given that it lost the first time?
Even having the second referendum at all gives the undemocratic air of “keep having referendums until the voters make the right choice”, something the EU has a history of (I think it was in Ireland, or possibly Portugal?).
It was reported that Bowen said that in a number of newspapers last year for what it’s worth.
Patrick
I would suggest helloworld paid the airline.
Normal practice with a travel agent. You pay them, they pay the providers.
I wonder what it says about the company’s accounting that it had an unpaid bill from July 2017 and did nothing about it.
Well I think I know what it says. It was meant to be a freebie.
The question is how many other freebies are there?
JimmyD @ #2572 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 3:43 pm
But how?
Are you forgetting that a majority of Labour voters voted to leave? At least, a majority of Labor seats did – 56% of them voted to leave. Only 36% voted to remain, according to https://fullfact.org/europe/did-majority-conservative-and-labour-constituencies-vote-leave-eu-referendum/
Darn sounds like something Wayne Swan would say. In any case it’s just silly nonsense to divert pressure caused by the franking credit policy.
Other Australian owned travel agents would be none too pleased about the cosy relationship between HelloWorld and the Liberal hierarchy. Gaining a corporate travel account is a big deal for an agent as it provides a large and steady source of income, even if profits may not be as high as on individual clients.
Naturally I have no idea if any other travel agents have “political issues”.
The huge overseas owned travel agents such as Expedia are also ready to pounce should a corporate travel account come up for renewal.
Player One, a majority of Labour voters would now vote remain. And of course Brexit was sold on lies supported by dark money which May has not seen fit to investigate.
Ross, not being 90 years old I haven’t used a travel agent in my life. But I can’t imagine they just pay for flights out of the office account and then hope to recover the cost later. There must surely be a way of ensuring client funds are applied to pay for that client’s flights.
re Get up………. is a separate creature from the Alp……… it proposals are sometimes worthwhile some times not they like any ideas need to be evaluated for their worth… they have every right to campaign………
Davidwh, you are the strangest liberal I’ve ever met. Surely you could at least give us something about Bowen’s hypocrisy rather than just roll over for the PB ALP club. For god’s sake, are you man or mouse?
PlayerOne – I’ve already outlined how I believe Corbyn could prevent brexit. See my previous posts.
According to this exit poll conducted just after the 2016 referendum, 65% of Labour voters voted remain:
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted
As for now, polls show a majority of Labour members, voters, and constituencies at least support a second referendum:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/02/most-labour-members-believe-corbyn-should-back-second-brexit-vote
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/02/majority-in-all-labour-seats-back-second-referendum-study-says
https://www.newstatesman.com/spotlight/devolution/2018/10/most-labour-voters-want-us-stay-eu
Bowen really is a dolt.
Rossmcg,
I read today that Helloworld has a subsidiary company called Qantas Business Travel. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cormann family ticket went through that company. So, direct to Qantas for the tickets, funded by Helloworld, if that makes sense, as I imagine they have an open-ended account arrangement with Qantas whereby they get an invoice maybe on a quarterly basis for all the Qantas Business travellers who booked through them. They then just pay it. Hence Cormann’s bill could easily have been covered in that way without him having to fork out a cent. Until now. 🙂
nath,
We are all on our best behaviour now remember? 🙂
Would Labor partisans prefer Bowen or Chalmers as shadow Treasurer ?
Patrick Bateman,
Corporate accounts are a different beast. So are freebies. 🙂
Dr Jim Chalmers-Dr Andrew Leigh and Chris Bowen are going to be a formidable Economics team. 🙂
Patrick
When I went on a couple of overseas trips involving air sea and rail travel I sent the money to the travel agent, not the providers of the service. That’s they way they work.
I suspect, like Cat, that Helloworld would get a monthly invoice from their providers they deal with.
These tickets were on the Helloworld staff account, presumably that would be authorised by somebody senior.
I can imagine some lowly accounts person asking a supervisor why the bill had not been paid and being told “don’t worry about it.”
Patrick Bateman @ #2581 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 3:55 pm
Support for remaining in the UK is (I believe) currently running about 56%, and this could quite easily swing back again once the current hysteria dies down – especially if May could come up with a more acceptable “soft Brexit” proposal.
Another referendum is not really the answer. It would just deepen the divide.
Patrick @ 3.56pm,
Have rarely used a travel agent however on the rare occasion I do, what they do is take the booking, take a deposit and it is placed on hold (unless it is a sale fare which needs to be paid in full upfront), the balance is paid about 60 days from departure and the tickets issue at that point.
What Mathias has is just wrong and doesn’t pass the pub test.
The Bowen comment is clearly talking about the small business tax cuts in that it does nothing to help a struggling business in any way.
A completely different issue to the franking debate.
Late Riser
Catching up on your earlier comment. As I see it at moment, Put me down for May resigning and no Brexit deal.
JimmyD @ #2585 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 4:00 pm
I found this …
Vote for “no deal” and then pray? That’s your solution?
Yes.
You have a better suggestion?