The first Ipsos poll of the year for the Nine newspapers is the best for the Coalition of the five published under Scott Morrison’s prime ministership, with Labor’s lead cut from 54-46 to 51-49 since the December poll. The Coalition gains two on the primary vote to 38% while Labor slips four to 33% (albeit that the last result was something of an outlier, as Ipsos leans on the low side with primary votes for both major parties). The Greens meanwhile are steady on 13%, a characteristically high result for them from Ipsos. The two-party figure is presumably based on 2016 election preference flows – we should have a result for respondent-allocated preferences later (UPDATE: 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences as well).
There is little corresponding movement on leadership ratings: Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 49% and up one on disapproval to 40%, Shorten is down one to 40% and up two to 52% (relatively positive results on leadership ratings being a further peculiarity of Ipsos), and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 46-37 to 48-38. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1200 from Tuesday to Friday, which makes it an imperfect measure of the impact, if any, of the parliamentary vote on asylum seekers on Tuesday.
The same goes for the other poll this weekend, a Queensland-only affair on federal voting intention by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail (state voting intention results from the poll can be found in the post below). The news here for the government is bad, with Labor recording a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, which represents a 6% swing in that state since the 2016 election, and compares with a 50-50 result at the last such poll in November. The primary votes are Coalition 35% (down three on the last poll, compared with 43.2% at the 2016 election), Labor 34% (steady, compared with 30.9%), Greens 10% (up one, compared with 8.8%) and One Nation 8% (down one, and they only ran in a few seats in 2016).
The poll also has a question on the party with the “better plan on border security and asylum seekers” which finds the Coalition leading 44% to 29%, which is a par-for-the-course result for such a question. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810.
Labor clearly need to improve their messaging.
Ipsos shmipsos.
So, one of the two has to be a rogue, surely?
If Morrison wants to talk boats till the election I say bring it on.
Labor will talk about the things that matter. Jobs, health, education, welfare, the environment …
The Tories have 73 seats now. To govern in majority they need to win three they don’t have and not lose one, a single one.
Can’t see that happening with a primary vote starting with a 3.
Could be Scomo’s Tampa moment.
ALP seen as soft and could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Government to delay the election to late May to work over softie Shorten.
Asha Leu – maybe there is no rogue (i.e. seriously rather than slightly wrong) poll. They can both be equally wrong, but in opposite directions. Perhaps there is no real change going on out there and we are still sitting a National figure of about 53-47.
The Libs/nats combined primary vote trend and
decline in seats as the primary vote declines
2013 federal election Libs/nats combined primary vote was 45.6% =90 seats
2016 federal election libs/nats combined primary vote 42.5% – 76 seats
2019 federal election – hypothetical libs/nats combined primary 38% – 58 seats
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Give or take a few decimals below or above 38% combined primary vote libs/nats , this statement is set in stone
7:45pm – on the night of election day
Labor will be declared the new government
It’s time the cat was belled; Eddie McGuire has a history of picking flashy players (cricket and footy) who choke under pressure with no leadership. It’s time Collingwood and the Stars sacked him. 😀
A primary drop of -4
That’s got to be a legitimate concern that can’t be disregarded.
So back to Queensland the leaders go.
William – that was quick for the new thread. Thank you.
I’ll just repost this from the old thread:
“I appreciate that people see things differently. Some people favour free markets and a low social safety net. Some, like Morrison, follow authoritarian strains of Christianity.
But the man is so obviously a bombastic, blathering imbecile, his bloviating over the recent Medivac bill is so obviously concocted, so obviously over the top, I’m surprised that so many could believe it, even if they like the IPA-religious right vision for Australia.”
Rex Douglas @ #9 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 6:53 pm
It happened to the Coalition in Newspoll last week but they didn’t seem concerned.
Margin of error is nearly 3%, it’s the trend that matters, not one poll, but more results like this would be a worry.
Rex – it will be disegarded if the following Newspoll, Essential, and internal polls don’t show the same move. I suspect they won’t. If they do show it, yeah sure its significant, but you wouldn’t bet too much on the volatile Ipsos. Its main affect will be to give the press gallery something to go with their narrative for the next week.
“Poland summoned Israel’s ambassador on Friday and threatened to scupper a summit in Jerusalem after reported comments in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared to accuse the Polish nation of complicity in the Nazi Holocaust.”
It’s a historical fact that many Poles were complicit in the Holocaust but the same is true of all European countries.
Diogenes
Seeing as you are here.
I asked this the other day but you probably didn’t see it.
Have you read the book by Bruce Robinson called They All Love Jack – Busting the Ripper.
If so your thoughts on the points raised.
Another possibility is that, after this week’s shenanigans, some Lib-leaning Onanists have gone home. That of course, means the libs are going to get even fewer prefs from One Nation.
Dan – ta for that.
Leroy @ #14 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 6:56 pm
But why isn’t it going the other way given the incompetence of this Govt ?
Meh. Ipsos looks awfully like a bit of an outlier (in a series that does appear to have a pro-Coalition house effect), and I’d be waiting for a few more polls like this before considering that this result is part of any sort of trend.
The status quo remains as it has been for the last 18 months, with both the majors on or around 38, Greens on 10, ONP on 5, others on about 10.
The basic maths hasn’t changed either. The Libs need a net gain of 3 seats to get a majority, and in an election environment where the ALP is likely to pick up a minimum of 8-10 seats across the nation, it’s impossible to see a way to victory for the Coalition, race baiting about boats notwithstanding.
Morrison and co will ramp up the fear this week. Let it rip.
One poll means nothing. Very little of the change in PV would have been due to the AS issue and this poll could be a outlier that arrived at the right time for Morrison. Who knows. Let us see how it all washes through over time when nothing much happens and AS Armageddon does not eventuate.
Labor just has to stick it out this week and focus which I am certain they will.
I must admit I was doubtful when labor went ahead with its support for the legislation but I now believe they made the right decision. Labor just has to keep on focus. Nothing comes easy and , in fact, I believe this is a huge opportunity for Shorten to show his mettle. There is no going back.
Cheers and a good evening to all.
Diogenes
At least he did not refer to ‘Polish concentration camps’ that really would have got them going 🙂
During the period 1939-45, the Polish nation state ceased to exist except as a Government in exile.
Scotty really should go now. This is a high mark, and he could ride it to a noble loss.
Waiting until May only allows the Coalitions internal contradictions to eat away.
C@tmomma @ #10 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 6:53 pm
Which is the best conclusion when you observe the pollies behaviour rather than their rhetoric.. Insiders seem to think the Election will be won or lost in Queensland.
The Oz reporting Ipsos already.It shows they are all pissing in the same pot.
Rex
Probably because of people like you, who obsess about how badly Labor is doing rather than looking at the government.
“I must admit I was doubtful when labor went ahead with its support for the legislation but I now believe they made the right decision. Labor just has to keep on focus. Nothing comes easy and , in fact, I believe this is a huge opportunity for Shorten to show his mettle. There is no going back.”
Agree. Labor did the right thing. A minor humanitarian tweak to the detention regime. Bill Shorten has to call out Coalition lies on this and other policy areas for what they are.
I am hoping that Labor can turn down the temperature on the whole issue once in office. Keep up the turnbacks, enter agreements with our neighbours, especially Indonesia and Malaysia.
But to turn down the heat, Labor needs a convincing Victoria 2018 win, not just fall over the line.
Paladin seems to have got an inside run..
“By Richard Baker
February 17, 2019 — 4.44pm
The Home Affairs department gave little-known security contractor Paladin Group just six days to submit a bid for the initial $90 million contract to provide security on Manus Island.
The short time frame for the tender process, which was also “limited” to few if any other bidders, raises further doubts that are likely to be canvassed at Senate estimates hearings this week.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/small-security-firm-given-less-than-a-week-to-bid-for-huge-manus-island-contract-20190217-p50ydh.html
You watch tonight Paul Murray be bragging that the coalition are back in it and will win that election
All they need is 40 percent to win that election
It will be interesting to see if any questions were asked re AS, the legislation and border security.
Cheers.
Plus there is no legislative agenda, as discussed on Insiders. There really is no reason for the govt to hang on except so the leaners can keep drawing their ministerial salaries.
We all know Qld is critical to winning Government and the electorate often defies the polls in QLD and WA in particular. I usually halve what the polls say about seat ‘losses’ in Qld; So if it says 10 seats are in danger I put it down to five maximum and that as an outlier., more likely 2-3.
I’m not banking on the ‘boats’ things having much impact except in the rural/regional Coalition seats Skye-Schmo echo chamber where mining is far more important anyway- Maranoa, Capricornia and Flynn. [fly in fly out workers -Dawson Kennedy Herbert] especially after the floods mess that will take a while to clean up. Don’t underplay what the floods event will have on the mindset of voters up there in these seats.
If Labor can walk away with all 8 seats intact [including Herbert] and drag 3 seats from the LIBS/NATS in Qld that will be enough. There won’t be a Ruddslide.. but it will be enough.
Besides, I don’t pay much attention to Ipsos polls – they consistently get the Greens vote wrong, for example.
sprocket_
If Morrison had political smarts he would go now. In fact as I said last week – he should have gone as soon as he lost that vote. Then he would have been able to wave this poll around having already started the campaign.
But he has shown time and again that he has not ‘got it’ – so I expect he will again hold off. And this “Scomentum” will fade away and by May 18th he will be back to square one.
Diogenes @ #8 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 6:51 pm
How are the Crows and their BBL team travelling atm?
I like Eddie. His influence tells me where not to go!
The Coalition’s PV is at 38 which is crap, but Labor’s is at 33 which is hopeless. The Coalition have to have a 4 on PV in front to win but there is now a gap between the two of 5 on PV and it was a 7 gap at the 2016 election. This is now not a hopeless situation.
A federal poll under Fairfax new owner, the Nine network. If reflects their reporting.
The headlines, photos, and news slant have changed slowly in recent weeks. Commentary hasn’t changed, but treatment of political stories has noticeably drifted right.
The Greens vote is not 13% so that 3% goes somewhere else,probably to Labor.
Could the Parliament institute a judicial investigation into the Paladin contract process? This whole business looks dodgy as all getout.
You watch tonight Paul Murray be bragging that the coalition are back in it and will win that election
All they need is 40 percent to win that election
————–
Even at 40% , that is a 2.5% decline on the 2016 federal election
Libs/nats currently on 75 seats , if they get to 40% on election day , going on the trend of the previous federal election results
Libs/nats will likely have 64 seats in the house of reps
With the Coalition primary vote at 38% I don’t see 51/49 2PP being correct.
steve davis @ #38 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 7:16 pm
And you’ve got to think, if people are rewarding The Greens for their actions in the last week re the Medevac Bill, then those same people must be at least sympathetic to Labor as well for joining them.
I’d love to see some Wentworth Single Seat polling for Kerryn Phelps as well after this week. Has she been rewarded or penalised?
Davidwh
And what about this constant 13% for the Greens.
The brainwashing of the public is beginning now by the media.If they succumb to it they kiss their arses goodbye.
To seal the deal, Morrison needs a highly publicised boat arrival at Christmas Island with lots of brown people on board – preferably including women and children. If he gets that, he’ll be off to visit the Governor General as quick as you can say “Tampa!”
Personally, I still don’t think he’ll win, but I find myself hoping he gets it just so we can get this whole charade over a bit sooner 🙁
I can’t put up with another 3 years of dysfunction and disunity…
If Morrison get back in I will be moving overseas till he is kick out of government
All this boats crap is just a charade.If the public are that shallow with their vote over a blatant charade theres no hope for them.
Steve I would be surprised if 13% was correct. IPSOS seems to overstate Greens primary to the disadvantage of Labor.
Basically I think we are sitting around 53/47 at present.
I devoutly hope this poll is an outlier. One would have to try to tune out of a country that re elected Morrison.
Davidwh says:
Sunday, February 17, 2019 at 7:20 pm
With the Coalition primary vote at 38% I don’t see 51/49 2PP being correct.
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Exactly when you take into account on what happens at the actual federal election
the last 2 federal elections
2013 libs/nats combined primary vote of 45.6% = 2pp 53.49%
2016 libs/nats combined primary vote of 42.5% = 2pp 50.38%
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Libs/nats combined primary vote of 38% = 2pp 45.5%-46%