The first Ipsos poll of the year for the Nine newspapers is the best for the Coalition of the five published under Scott Morrison’s prime ministership, with Labor’s lead cut from 54-46 to 51-49 since the December poll. The Coalition gains two on the primary vote to 38% while Labor slips four to 33% (albeit that the last result was something of an outlier, as Ipsos leans on the low side with primary votes for both major parties). The Greens meanwhile are steady on 13%, a characteristically high result for them from Ipsos. The two-party figure is presumably based on 2016 election preference flows – we should have a result for respondent-allocated preferences later (UPDATE: 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences as well).
There is little corresponding movement on leadership ratings: Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 49% and up one on disapproval to 40%, Shorten is down one to 40% and up two to 52% (relatively positive results on leadership ratings being a further peculiarity of Ipsos), and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 46-37 to 48-38. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1200 from Tuesday to Friday, which makes it an imperfect measure of the impact, if any, of the parliamentary vote on asylum seekers on Tuesday.
The same goes for the other poll this weekend, a Queensland-only affair on federal voting intention by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail (state voting intention results from the poll can be found in the post below). The news here for the government is bad, with Labor recording a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, which represents a 6% swing in that state since the 2016 election, and compares with a 50-50 result at the last such poll in November. The primary votes are Coalition 35% (down three on the last poll, compared with 43.2% at the 2016 election), Labor 34% (steady, compared with 30.9%), Greens 10% (up one, compared with 8.8%) and One Nation 8% (down one, and they only ran in a few seats in 2016).
The poll also has a question on the party with the “better plan on border security and asylum seekers” which finds the Coalition leading 44% to 29%, which is a par-for-the-course result for such a question. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810.
Not going to happen Bob.
With corruption so widespread in politics and business, there should be no surprise that this poll is redefining the concept of margin of error.
The election, whenever held, will not justify this rubbish poll from the Costello at the helm mob paying for this poll.
The Greens aren’t on 13% and Labor is not on its 2013 nadir of 33%. Maybe Labor + Green = 46% is about right.
The Coalition is on 38%, so ‘someone else’ is on 16%.
So if we assume Labor is actually 36 and Greens 10, this would give a 2PP of 36 + .83*10 + .45*16 = 51.5.
With a margin of error of 2.9, it’s actually very likely to be between 49 and 54.
Alex Turnbull is getting very involved in many issues, this tweet today…
“Fun coincidence: my Dad got rolled just as legislation for an integrity commission was drafted and ready to go and nobody has asked @cporterwa about it. Then MT got rolled w @newscorp help. Is the hard right of the liberal party united by vested interests or ideology? #auspol
I wonder if he might just not run as a Liberal Independent? A seat like Benelong on 9.3 margin might be a good one, given his ties with Asia
Query for the serious Psephologists amongst us: how many times has Ipsos thrown up a poll that is an outlier given the other polls taken at similar times? I reckon at least three times in the past 6-7 months alone they have jumped the shark.
Ipsos seems to be more volotile than the others. It seems to constantly understate the primary vote for the majors, especially Labor’s and constantly putting the Greens PV at around 13% is risible.
51/49 only does. not make sense especially if there has been a 8% swing 2pp in QLD….. even the 54/46 votes seem to be over estimating the liberal vote…….. the day to day watching of political events suggested the lnp govt cannot take a trick……… why the hell would this be reflected in an improving situation?
Andrew_Earlwood @ #55 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 7:38 pm
Kevin Bonham is on a unity ticket, comrade!
A/E, Kevin Bonham has answered your very question
Comments on #Ipsos added to recent Poll Roundup here: kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/02/poll-r… Of seven previous times #Ipsos has stuck its neck out this term, it’s been predictive twice, bouncy four times and one will be forever inconclusive.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/02/poll-roundup-mixed-start-to-year-for.html
A/E, Kevin Bonham has answered your very question
Comments on #Ipsos added to recent Poll Roundup here: kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/02/poll-r… Of seven previous times #Ipsos has stuck its neck out this term, it’s been predictive twice, bouncy four times and one will be forever inconclusive.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/02/poll-roundup-mixed-start-to-year-for.html
Scott your analysis ignored one important fact. The One Nation Effect. Look at the 1998 election, on primary vote Labor polled 40.1, the Coalition 39.51, and the Coalition won. Why because One Nation had a PV of 8.43 and the Greens and Democrats PV combined was less than One Nation PV. One Nation PV at present is around 6. Get it, you have take all things into account. I reckon its 52-48 to Labor at present because the Greens PV looks too high.
How does he define the hard right? As Grog pointed out today, supposedly moderate Liberals readily embrace if not champion un-moderate stances. The Liberal party today *is* hard right, all the way through and through.
Until the Greens vote becomes more realistic then Ipsos has to be a bit of a joke poll.
Thanks GG & Sproket.
KB on Ipsos’s track record
Looking at the record of Ipsos so far this term, there have been seven cases prior to this one of it being a point or more away from my aggregate even after including it. In two of these Ipsos ran ahead of changes in other polls generally, while in four of these the movement implied by Ipsos never showed up in other polling, suggesting that Ipsos was simply being bouncy. The cases where Ipsos was predictive include two of the three cases it stuck out on the Coalition’s side (narrowings in April and September 2018) but no case where it stuck out on Labor’s side. Make of that what you will. The seventh case was inconclusive: an apparent massive outlier in Labor’s favour just before Prime Minister Turnbull was removed. (I suspect it was partly right and partly overreacting in that case.)
Got the hiccups Sproket?
Between federal elections polling
opinion polls aggregate 2pp turns out to be incorrect when it comes to the actual federal election day
For example opinion polls continue to overestimate the libs/nats 2pp by 4% or more
on election day the coalition 2pp is around 7-8% on top of the libs/nats combine primary vote
why do the opinion poll aggregate continue to be so incorrect
steve davis @ #26 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 4:09 pm
Seems strange how they never mention Essential polls.
sprocket_ @ #54 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 7:35 pm
Young Alex is doing “very nicely” as a Cat’s Paw……
The election was always going to have boats as a high profile issue. That is all Morrison has. Fear and bullshit.
At least now it is out of the box in February and Morrison has to keep the attack up for three months rather than just over a campaign.
Labor just has to keep going.
Looking deeply into the entrails of a single poll is a recipe for heart burn. Just remember only yesterday posters were happy as after the Qld poll. Last week after Essential the room was rocking.
Polls come and go. Accept the good and bad and move on.
Cheers
Sprocket @7:35.
“I wonder if he might just not run as a Liberal Independent? A seat like Benelong on 9.3 margin might be a good one, given his ties with Asia”
So would North Sydney, although the margin is more challenging (13.6%). Also, the sitting member Trent Zimmerman, a pretend small-l liberal, is fairly popular, although he’s just a cypher for a mendacious right wing ruling party. As Greg Jericho said, there are no liberals in the “Liberal” party.
HaveAChat
I haven’t been a Ripperologist for quite some time but I’m pretty sure the Maybrick diaries are a hoax. I don’t think we will never know who Jack the Ripper was. If I had to have a guess, I’d say Aaron Kosminski.
Am I really the only one suspects that it was franking credits, as opposed to boats, that caused this?
Read the Paladin stuff………. only a closed contract…. a dodgy contracter…. possible favours for the O’neill government……. mention of Karen Dutton working for them is she Peter Dutton’s sister……….? how do the home affairs department advoid a perception of bias if this is the case? If she is just unfortunate enough to share his name and they are not related……… then there are so many issues outstanding!
Morrison will be all coy tomorrow, probably do a photo op with the newly extended, contracted, Costello.
A well known commentator on PB, has begun the coy already.
Diogenes @ #71 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 7:47 pm
Was he a Collingwood Centre Half Forward?
What I’d hate to see is conspiracy theorists blame the ‘Lib Independents’ for wedging Labor on boats.
The torture taking place had to addressed, even if by extraordinary means.
itsthevibe @ #72 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 7:47 pm
Maybe the respondents took Bowens advice …?
michael says:
Sunday, February 17, 2019 at 7:42 pm
Scott your analysis ignored one important fact. The One Nation Effect. Look at the 1998 election, on primary vote Labor polled 40.1, the Coalition 39.51,
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Yes the 1998 federal election was a unique one
It was a rarity for the libs/nats to retain office with a primary vote of under 42% , the Howard government can thank the landslide win in 1996 , to remain in office after the 1998 federal election
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The current libs/nats government are in minority and anything under 42.5% in the primary vote , it will be difficult for the libs/nats to make it to 70 seats
Fear and Loathing in Las Ipsos.
What are Morrison and co. on ?
Labor at 33% PV that is 2013 election territory which was 33.38% and a 46.51% 2PP.
Again shows how vulnerable Labor is with its consistently low 2PP.
Also keep Wong, Pilbersek & Bourke away from stand up interviews.
mick Quinlivan @ #73 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 7:47 pm
It’s money laundering by a sovereign Government. The word corruption is going to be on high rotation this week!
GG
StKilda wasn’t it?
cannot see how the franking credits issue can bite………. the Wilson travelling show…. his being careless disclosing his investments with Wilson asset management…… the obvious mismanagement of the inquiry which I suspect will endanger Goldstein for the liberals and the policy outcome that given labor’s pensioner guarantee ensures it is only those well off who have large share holdings and are ineligible for a pension who will be disadvantaged at all
Goll @ #79 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 7:55 pm
LOL. Viva Las Ipsos!
“Labor at 33% PV that is 2013 election territory which was 33.38% and a 46.51% 2PP.
Again shows how vulnerable Labor is with its consistently low 2PP.
Also keep Wong, Pilbersek & Bourke away from stand up interviews.”
Yep, on all counts.
OR
Ipsos is full of shit.
Take your pick.
correct me if i am wrong
Hasn’t every 1st IPSOS poll for the new year been 51/49 to Labor in the previous 3 or so years ,
from previous thread…
Rex Douglas @ #1118 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 5:36 pm
I agree that Neumann needs help, but the help he needs would be better off coming from the parties and independents who supported Phelps’ bill. If their passion is real on this issue they should be banging the drum 24/7 to highlight the lies and misdirection of the Libs. They should be fighting this issue as if their political lives depend on it.
How could Labor still be in the lead at 33% primary if they got trounced in 2013 at 33.38%.
Scott @ #87 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 7:00 pm
As long as I’ve been following IPSOS this is what I’ve got recorded.
Date Pollster LNP ALP GRN
2016-02-13 Ipsos 44% 32% 15%
2016-03-13 Ipsos 45% 31% 14%
2016-04-17 Ipsos 42% 33% 14%
2016-05-06 Ipsos 44% 33% 14%
2016-06-03 Ipsos 42% 36% 13%
2016-11-26 Ipsos 36% 30% 16%
2017-03-25 Ipsos 33% 34% 16%
2017-05-14 Ipsos 37% 35% 13%
2017-09-10 Ipsos 35% 34% 14%
2017-12-04 Ipsos 34% 33% 13%
2018-05-13 Ipsos 36% 37% 11%
2018-06-24 Ipsos 35% 35% 12%
2018-07-23 Ipsos 39% 34% 12%
2018-08-19 Ipsos 33% 35% 13%
2018-09-18 Ipsos 34% 31% 15%
2018-10-14 Ipsos 35% 35% 15%
2018-11-18 Ipsos 37% 34% 13%
2018-12-16 Ipsos 36% 37% 13%
2019-02-17 Ipsos 38% 33% 13%
IPSOS is part of 9s marketing department, all about the clicks..
steve davis:
Most likely, due to a much lower primary on the LNP’s part.
Late Riser says:
Sunday, February 17, 2019 at 8:03 pm
As long as I’ve been following IPSOS this is what I’ve got recorded.
—————-
Thanks for that very interesting , it seems ISPOS 1st poll for the year trend is identical
“Am I really the only one suspects that it was franking credits, as opposed to boats, that caused this?”
“Rapists and murderers are coming on boats to steal your retirement savings”.
But seriously, it’s hard to tell. Since the Medivac issue, franking credits seem to have slipped off the radar. We had other polls during the franking credits brouhaha which didn’t seem to be much affected by the issue.
Looking at the numbers, this Ispos poll could be just a statistical blip. If the next poll confirms this one, it would be a worry.
Steve777
I wouldnt underestimate people that would actually believe that.
More likely to have been the franking credit issue IMO
steve davis @ #89 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 8:02 pm
They need the Greens to prop them up ..?
Morrison is channelling Trump there is no doubt.Ever since the day he became the accidental PM.
Greensborough Growler
says:
Sunday, February 17, 2019 at 7:50 pm
Diogenes @ #71 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 7:47 pm
HaveAChat
I haven’t been a Ripperologist for quite some time but I’m pretty sure the Maybrick diaries are a hoax. I don’t think we will never know who Jack the Ripper was. If I had to have a guess, I’d say Aaron Kosminski.
Was he a Collingwood Centre Half Forward?
________________________________________
you are thinking of Craig Starcevich. The Croatian Stallion.
Lovey @ #96 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 8:12 pm
Bowen ..?