Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

The first Ipsos poll for the year produces a much stronger result for the Coalition – but another poll finds them struggling in Queensland.

The first Ipsos poll of the year for the Nine newspapers is the best for the Coalition of the five published under Scott Morrison’s prime ministership, with Labor’s lead cut from 54-46 to 51-49 since the December poll. The Coalition gains two on the primary vote to 38% while Labor slips four to 33% (albeit that the last result was something of an outlier, as Ipsos leans on the low side with primary votes for both major parties). The Greens meanwhile are steady on 13%, a characteristically high result for them from Ipsos. The two-party figure is presumably based on 2016 election preference flows – we should have a result for respondent-allocated preferences later (UPDATE: 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences as well).

There is little corresponding movement on leadership ratings: Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 49% and up one on disapproval to 40%, Shorten is down one to 40% and up two to 52% (relatively positive results on leadership ratings being a further peculiarity of Ipsos), and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 46-37 to 48-38. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1200 from Tuesday to Friday, which makes it an imperfect measure of the impact, if any, of the parliamentary vote on asylum seekers on Tuesday.

The same goes for the other poll this weekend, a Queensland-only affair on federal voting intention by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail (state voting intention results from the poll can be found in the post below). The news here for the government is bad, with Labor recording a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, which represents a 6% swing in that state since the 2016 election, and compares with a 50-50 result at the last such poll in November. The primary votes are Coalition 35% (down three on the last poll, compared with 43.2% at the 2016 election), Labor 34% (steady, compared with 30.9%), Greens 10% (up one, compared with 8.8%) and One Nation 8% (down one, and they only ran in a few seats in 2016).

The poll also has a question on the party with the “better plan on border security and asylum seekers” which finds the Coalition leading 44% to 29%, which is a par-for-the-course result for such a question. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,918 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

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  3. briefly @ #2895 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 10:17 pm

    who by now exceed the Leavers in number.

    So you keep stating without any evidence to back it up. The same pollsters that got the result of the referendum vote horribly wrong hardly constitute proof of anything. If they got that wrong, then there’s a good chance they getting new polls wrong as well.

    I hope they actually are right, however given how wrong they were initially doesn’t inspire confidence.

  5. It is noteworthy that The Tories are trying to bully the EU in the same way that they have tried to bully parliament.

    That is the problem. Ireland won’t change its position so the EU won’t

    As long as the Tories keep pushing no Backstop which Labour cannot accept having got an end to the Troubles to Blair’s great credit as PM, Labour cannot accept a deal. That’s a red line for Labour.

    There is no meeting point for negotiation.
    As the default is a hard Brexit that’s what will happen.
    This is why I agree with the three that have left the Tories as being correct about May.

    She has handled the whole thing badly. With Brexit that means disaster economically.

    A disaster that even this minute May can avert by revoking article 50 and starting again.

    That’s the person with the power to do things. That’s the person that can reverse the obvious problem of no compromise meaning a Hard Exit.

  6. William Bowe says:
    Thursday, February 21, 2019 at 1:30 am
    On reflection, I’ve decided it would be irresponsible of me to allow DareToTread to continue posting here.

    I reckon this will be received with relief by many, William.

  8. BB

    Thanks for the tip about ‘Dirty John’. Agreed on Ozark, it was excellent.

    Watching McMafia on SBS atm, it’s right on topic re the Russia mafia state. Also, can’t wait for the second season of Mindhunter later this year.

  9. We have a cruel and heartless government, in league with another at Nauru.

    If the present situation continues, a panel of independent doctors flown to Christmas Island could see for themselves the level of illness and neglect that exists amongst the refugee populations of Manus and Nauru. That’s assuming the Nauruan government actually let them leave. The Australian government is well aware of this and I suspect will be working frantically to prevent the scale of the problem getting into the public eye.

    All the above do nothing to help these sick people who have suffered enough. The aim of the medevac bill was to give people the correct treatment. The government is now, by its cowardice and legal sophistry, continuing to play games with people’s health. There are people on Nauru who have tumours and are going deaf; who have kidney stones and are in excruciating pain daily – quite apart from a monumental psychiatric health burden. Will Scott Morrison weep when another refugee kills himself or herself ?

    By his actions, he is knowingly pushing desperate people to the brink. This is worse than bastardry; this is a state-sanctioned crime against humanity.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/20/medevac-hopes-dashed-by-coalitions-cowardice-and-legal-sophistry

  11. lizzie,
    We have a cruel and heartless government that just wants to play politics with sick people’s lives. All so they can turn the electorate against Labor and govern for another 3 borderline corrupt years (and I’m only saying ‘borderline’ for legal reasons).

  12. Defectors to the Left of her, now Defectors to the Right:

    LONDON — With Britain’s chaotic departure from the European Union just weeks away, three prominent lawmakers abruptly resigned Wednesday from Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party, saying the government has surrendered control to reckless, hard-line Brexiteers who are endangering the country’s future.

    The Conservative members of Parliament who resigned will join a new “Independent Group” of lawmakers formed earlier this week by eight legislators who quit the opposition Labour Party.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/disgusted-by-brexit-hard-liners-three-lawmakers-abandon-theresa-mays-conservative-party/2019/02/20/20f77b30-3503-11e9-af5b-b51b7ff322e9_story.html?utm_term=.003f34515b9c

  14. The top 4 stories in the SmearStralian are hysterical lies about Labor’s renewable policy and looming splits in the party, ignoring the HelloWorld scandal and CashGate. Murdoch loses $25m a year keeping this propaganda sheet going – for times like this.

  16. “On reflection, I’ve decided it would be irresponsible of me to allow DareToTread to continue posting here. The comment that prompted this has been deleted.”

    Bombshell! Farewell DTT. I have mixed feelings about this. As much as her omnishambles posted annoyed the frack out of me at times, and SS comparisons with Israel are beyond the pale IMO, I’m pretty sad about the decision I have to say.

    Perhaps a short suspension rather than termination would be in order, I beseech you Oh Lord god almighty?

  17. Dan Gulberry

    While winning byelections would strengthen the Independent Group MPs moral position, by resigning their seats now they’d remove themselves from Parliament for the key moments leading to Brexit day just over 30 days away, which would be self-defeating(not that I think they’ll achieve much anyway). Perhaps if they’d not vacillated all this time and moved a month ago or more that would be a viable idea. (I’m not sure how long the Brits take to hold a byelection from go to whoa, but I can’t see it taking less than a month)

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