The Courier Mail has disregarded my need for a snappy headline by running Queensland state voting intention results from a YouGov Galaxy poll that don’t include two-party preferred. The primary votes are Labor 35%, down one since November; Liberal National Party 35%, up one; Greens 11%, steady; One Nation 8%, down two; and Katter’s Australian Party 4%, steady. The November poll had Labor ahead 53-47, so given the movements on the primary vote, this one can presumably be read as 52-48 or 53-47. Leadership ratings are good for Annastacia Palaszczuk, who is steady on approval at 48% and up one on disapproval to 38%, and less good for Deb Frecklington, who is respectively down four to 31% and up six to 35%. Palaszczuk’s lead as preferred premier is 47-27, out from 43-26.
The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810. There were also federal voting intention results from the poll published yesterday, but I’m going to hold off giving that its own thread until tomorrow, it being too soon for a new federal politics thread.
I’m surprised Yougov is still in business, but there you go. Where there is money, there’s a way.
Yes Wiliam – hard to make much out of that. But with 30% ‘other’ the various methods of allocating preferences in polls (which all have their flaws) also have an increasing margin of error themselves.
A bit like how the ‘don’t know’s’ in the lead-up to the USA 2016 Presidential election had Nate Silver giving Trump about a 30% chance of winning, because Hillary’s lead even it were bigger than Obama’s had to contend with a much higher ‘middle’ ground that could break either way.
If this trend against the major parties did continue, and say it got to 60-65% for the majors, it would surely make the job of any pundits harder.
https://outline.com/gLf5t3
Can someone post the Federal Qld results for those of us stuck the wrong side of the paywall?
I saw a tweet suggesting they contrast with the Ipsos poll just released, but that’s all I know!