BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The ballyhooed Ipsos results removes only a coat of paint from Labor’s poll trend lead.

The poll that launched a million headlines, the 51-49 result from Ipsos (here’s my paywalled effort in Crikey), has had only a modest effect on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, on which Labor’s two-party lead is down half a point to 53.3-46.7. The Coalition has recovered all of one seat on the seat projection, that being in Queensland. Despite the voting intention result, the Ipsos poll has actually led to a slight softening in Scott Morrison’s net approval and preferred prime minister trend readings, while Bill Shorten’s net approval result is all but unchanged.

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,560 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

  1. You could tell late last year that Dennis Atkins had reached some sort of breaking point: he’s really started laying into the government since then.

  2. [Leroy

    It looks like he’s gone to PVO’s reply feed and spammed dozens of them with those numbers.]

    Yes, it’s very odd! Dennis is either hacked or dottering.

    I think we ought to wait until the Ghost confirms either way.

    But let’s be honest, if it’s 53/47, you won’t hear about it on Virginia Trioli’s ABC breakfast program or the Fran Kelly show.

  3. Mavis, I disagree…I have always quite enjoyed WB’s dry admonishments. To borrow a Monty Python line he is cruel but fair.

  4. I love the old school, cynical joirnos like Atkins, Tongle, Farr, Bong.

    Sure they play the game, but at the end of the day they really dgaf about anyone’s feelings and are as cynical about pillows as it gets/ as journos should be.

  5. ‘antonbruckner11 says:
    Sunday, February 24, 2019 at 7:55 pm

    Don’t bump those guys while they’re holding a beer.’


    I was just thinking something along the same lines.
    I was also thinking that one of them got the mad hatter.

  6. mick Quinlivan says:
    Sunday, February 24, 2019 at 9:02 pm
    can all people please advoid personal attacks…… discuss policy…. disagree about some one’s opinion…. but pls be polite

    mick Q, posted like a gentleman. I agree. I make it a habit not to make personal attacks and to cultivate my better nature. I’m very pleased to say I’ve never been rebuked at PB. This is a credit to the bludgers, who exhibit a kindness – a sense of forebearance, a joviality and a willing foregiveness – rarely seen in cyber-ville.

  7. I’m wondering if Labor will pull away further when the campaign goes under away. Liberals have used up all their ammo. Labor seemed to be keeping the powder dry and has a lot to throw at Liberals Cuts,Chaos, Penalty Rates, Medicare, and will have more policy announcements as the election gets closer it will be interesting.

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