The poll that launched a million headlines, the 51-49 result from Ipsos (here’s my paywalled effort in Crikey), has had only a modest effect on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, on which Labor’s two-party lead is down half a point to 53.3-46.7. The Coalition has recovered all of one seat on the seat projection, that being in Queensland. Despite the voting intention result, the Ipsos poll has actually led to a slight softening in Scott Morrison’s net approval and preferred prime minister trend readings, while Bill Shorten’s net approval result is all but unchanged.
Please note there is a thread below this one for all your Brexit discussion needs.
2,560 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”
Note that, by popular demand, there is now a dedicated Brexit discussion thread. Also, may I ask that we try and steer clear of the topic of Israel, except insofar as it relates directly to Australian politics, which it very rarely does. Nothing good can come of it.
I was dreading the latest Bludgertrack. On reflection though, it’s holding up quite well. 🙂
Defectors to the Left of her, now Defectors to the Right:
The top 4 stories in the SmearStralian are hysterical lies about Labor’s renewable policy and looming splits in the party, ignoring the HelloWorld scandal and CashGate. Murdoch loses $25m a year keeping this propaganda sheet going – for times like this #auspol
The Government gazette doing what it does
DOJ to announce end of Mueller investigation as early as next week: CNN
Attorney General Bill Barr is reportedly preparing to receive special counsel Robert Mueller’s report on Russian collusion as early as next week, CNN reported Wednesday.
People familiar with the Justice Department’s preparations told CNN that the new attorney general plans to submit the confidential report to Congress “soon after” it’s released.
“The precise timing of the announcement is subject to change,” the report noted.
DFAT is up in Senate Estimates at 9am this morning. I expect their briefing folders will include a fat section on Joe Hockey’s $1.3m shareholding in HelloWorld..
Trump says it is ‘totally up to’ Bill Barr to make Mueller’s report public
President Donald Trump on Wednesday said the decision whether to release special counsel Robert Mueller’s report will be made by his new attorney general.
“That’ll be totally up to the new attorney general. He’s a tremendous man, a tremendous person who really respects this country and respects the Justice Department,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.
Trump investigations are long from over even if Mueller wraps up next week: CNN justice reporter
President Donald Trump is still facing several potentially damaging investigations even if special counsel Robert Mueller is winding down his probe of Russian interference in the 2016 election, a criminal justice expert explained Wednesday on CNN.
“Because there is still very much a lingering problem for him out of the Southern District of New York and … that is one of the things that concerns the president and the president’s people much more than this Mueller investigation. That is where he is still facing a lot of jeopardy. He’s already been implicated in one crime there. They just now subpoenaed all of the financial records for the inauguration.”
“They’re still working through the Trump Organization and that investigation and the hush money payment investigation is still ongoing. So there’s still a lot that’s going to go on,”
Bit sad that Brexit has (rightfully) gained its own thread whereas the totally boring, inch by inch downfall of Trump is still here.
You can read the ‘economic analysis’ of the renewable energy push here
In short, energy intensive industries will be cut back, leading to job losses and lower GDP.
What puts this analysis into the horeshit column, is the apparent lack of any assessment of the disbenefits to GDP of growing extreme weather events exacerbated by Climate Change. It’s like the rest of the Environment is just an ignored exogenous variable, which has no value.
I expect the US peer review of Dr Fisher’s paper will call this flaw out.
I honestly don’t know how sentient human beings can fight the push to Renewable Energy. That it is the best way to deal with Anthropogenic Climate Change has been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt. Because Climate Change = More Extreme Weather Events, is real! Despite what the human dinosaurs want you to believe, as they type and rant their way to extinction.
These days The Australian must be almost entirely preaching to the converted.
That was the 14 who bothered to answer.
“Eye doctors fear kids going blind”
Surely there was some angle to blame Labor for this! Maybe there is inside the article.
I look at their front page on their website every day, and it is almost laughable how they twist the narrative. And Steve777 more evidence for this is in some of our very anti-Labor relatives who twenty years ago would have considered The Australian a left-wing rag but now quote it as if it is some sort of holy scripture.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Tony Wright has reached his limit as he writes that there is no hint of a minister willing to step aside for transgressions real, alleged or imagined that would, in virtually any other time, have consumed a government. He is deadly serious in this contribution.
Jacqui Maley pulls Chumgate apart.
In a thoughtful contribution John Warhurst writes that we shouldn’t jump to conclusions about the Ipsos opinion poll result.
And Tim Soutphommasane warns that voters should brace for a possible race-based election, declaring there is every indication that the Coalition government has already “flicked the switch to fear”.
Nick Martin says that Medevac hopes are being dashed by the Coalition’s cowardice and legal sophistry.
Michaelia Cash has been accused of showing “no shame” for refusing to speak to police about the leak to media from her office of raids on the Australian Workers’ Union headquarters.
From travel rorts to Paladin, to union raids and the Banking RC, hiding is what the Morrison Government is about, writes John Passant.
Stephen Koukoulas explains why the next budget will have its problems. He says it will be impossible for Treasury to ignore the recent run of hard data, including the weakness in consumer spending and a generally downbeat tone in the recent economic news when it sets the economic parameters that will underpin its estimates of tax revenue and government spending and therefore whether the budget is in surplus or deficit.
John Falzon bemoans how neoliberal governments have undermined and subverted the social security system of which our country was once proud.
Michael Koziol reports that the Morrison government could face dozens of expensive legal cases as a result of its plans to transfer sick refugees and asylum seekers to Christmas Island instead of the Australian mainland, with lawyers and advocates confirming they are prepared to launch court action.
Eryk Bagshaw reports that the Australian Securities and Investments Commission has begun inquiries into the sharp share price drops of buy-now-pay later providers. Could there have been a leak of the final report of the Senate inquiry into the industry due to be issued tomorrow?
Elizabeth Knight has a close look at the goings on at the NAB and says Thorburn’s departure carries message with it.
And John Hewson writes that a few bank scalps won’t help unless they change their rotten culture.
The AFR says contracts like Paladin don’t belong in 21st century government.
And Michael Pascoe explains Paladin and the colourful details Peter Dutton knows nothing about.
Judith Ireland looks at the valedictory speeches from Kelly O’Dwyer and Jenny Macklin.
The AFR explains five reasons to worry about the economy.
The SMH editorial says the federal government’s failure to develop a climate change policy has thrown the burden on to state governments to fill the gap. A month out from the NSW state election the ALP seems to be taking the task more seriously.
Simon Benson in The Australian trumpets that new independent modelling has found Labor’s 45 per cent emissions-reduction target would push power prices 50 per cent higher.
Greg Jericho tells us that wages are growing faster than inflation – but that’s not saying much!
Alexandra Smith can smell the pork in NSW’s election barrel.
Jane Gilmore tells us how badly our family law system is broken.
Government leadership is needed to manage both the positive and negative political, social and economic implications of artificial intelligence and robotics, writes Paul Budde.
Jess Irvine says it’s time Australia caught up with the rest of the world when it comes to early childhood learning.
Wendy Touhy says that, just like smoking, phones should be banned from the donner table.
Dana McCauley reports on the fact that the My Health Record opt-out rate has doubled to 2.5 million people.
Michael West reveals that there is now strong evidence that Healthscope’s hospitals may be held by a vehicle in the Cayman Islands, indeed a vehicle whose address is the infamous Ugland House.
The human cost of the building cladding debacle.
Rachael Eddie reports that the federal government’s controversial PaTH internship program, an employment scheme critics have called exploitative, is falling short of its own expectations.
The leaders of some of Australia’s biggest companies have backed the RBA’s warning that the softening housing market is leading us to tighten our belts.
Sam Maiden writes that the defeat of the Islamic State caliphate in Syria is “imminent” according to the Australian Defence Force, raising fresh questions over how to deal with up to 100 Australians who fled to fight with the terrorists and their children.
An opinion writer for the Washington Post suggests that Trump’s latest fits of rage are directed at reality itself.
Donald Trump’s presidency has birthed a strong Left-wing movement, including some key female political influencers, writes Dr Lee Duffield.
Meanwhile Republican US Senator Susan Collins of Maine said on Wednesday that she would vote for congressional resolution disapproving of President Donald Trump’s emergency declaration to build a wall on the southern border.
Clive Palmer has been slapped with an order to pay legal costs after a Queensland court refused to block criminal charges against him.
Christopher Scanlon writes that we have to admit our generation of parents are a bunch of complainers.
Residents fear that new plans to tunnel as shallow as 12 metres below homes along the WestConnex route will lead to widespread damage above the motorway in Sydney’s inner west. An updated map for the M4-M5 link shows contractors altered the route for stage three of the $16.8 billion mega-toll road. It will run below 4500 homes.
The New Daily explains how your new mobile could be doubling the cost of your plan.
Here’s a contrary view on mortgage broker commissions.
The number of Australian children deliberately poisoning themselves with drugs like paracetamol and antidepressants has doubled in the past decade, which medical experts say may predict a future rise in youth suicide rates.
The US Department of Justice may announce as early as next week that Special Counsel Robert Mueller has given the attorney general his report on the federal Russia investigation, CNN said on Wednesday, citing unnamed sources.
David Rowe goes yet again to Christmas Island. I like the boat’s exhaust.
A ripper from David Pope as he channels a well known musical.
Cathy Wilcox aims a sidewinder at Dutton.
From Matt Golding.
John Shakespeare farewells Swanny.
Andrew Dyson and the latest sewerage testing results.
Zanetti and the milk supply chain.
Jon Kudelka on franked dividends.
From the US
Our Attorney General Porter will not release the full legal advice on medivac……..happy to select advice and use it.
I totally agree with the former race discrimination commisioner who fears ‘blatant appeals to racism and division.’ in the lead up to the federal election.
The coalition thrive on division it disgusts me.
BK, kudos for your much appreciated efforts
Matt Golding has to be getting into the top tier of cartoonists, prolific but simple crystallisation of topics of the day
Their future is assured. Scrott and crew will be unable to resist recruiting them in his Scare the Punters,Keeping You Safe, Labor Soft on Security campaigns.
Re Sprocket @6:56: “I expect the US peer review of Dr Fischer’s paper will call this flaw out.”
I had a read of the report in the Australian. That paper has a history of giving acres of Newsprint to what might be called fringe science and contrarians in the field of climate change, so anything they publish should be taken with a grain of salt (or a dry sea bed).
I would also ask why are they commenting on this research before peer review. Also, although the report is full of big scary numbers. That to me is a red flag – hundreds of billions of dollars means nothing, especially when we talk about a decade or more into the future. It’s the relative outcome that matters. Further down, it seems to say that growth would be reduced by 0.6% per annum (against what? Presumably some base case of “Business as Usual”).
Also, given that I haven’t trusted The Australian for many years, I would ask whether Dr Fischer’s research has been portrayed in an accurate and balanced fashion, ie “did he actually say that?” Did Dr Fischer’s paper only mention downsides? No upsides? Nothing about burgeoning new renewable industries, job opportunities and markets? Then there’s use of expressions like “up to” = “worst case”. What is the likely / mid-case scenario?
Also, while Dr Fischer’s past associations look impressive, what is he doing now? Who is he working for? Who paid for the research? Why no link to the source?
What was the point of Tony Wright into digressing into 5 paragraphs of gillard / rudd and Shortern rubbish in that article?
Actually we know the point it was garden variety cowardice of Australia’s political journalists that mean they have to make Labor the not-so-silent co-owner of the Coallition government’s rampant malfeasance
What examples are there of the last Labor government’s cronyism and institutional corruption analogous to AWU scandal, Palladin, franking credits enquiry, Hellowworld?
And these are all happening at the same time but I can’t think of any in over 6 years of the Rudd Gillard governments.
Thank you, I think.
What do we have?
1. A bunch of racist spivs/crooks/charlatans running the country on behalf of a bunch of spivs/crooks/charlatans.
2. A major national newspaper that is more or less totally and deliberately dishonest, reflecting the power of the wealthy to waylay our democracy and also reflecting the ethical corruption of its journalists.
3. Some journalists who are trying to analyze what is happening with honesty!
4. An economy that is looking sicker by the month.
5. An environment that is falling to pieces.
6. A society in which the wealth ownership gap between the wealthy and the poor has never been greater.
7. A public policy discourse that often verges on the pathetic.
If the Coalition gets up in May ALL these trends will continue.
Steve777 @ #20 Thursday, February 21st, 2019 – 7:32 am
Bjorn Lomborg reinflated.
Sickening isn’t it?
From the previous thread:
Our Lord god almighty:
“On reflection, I’ve decided it would be irresponsible of me to allow DareToTread to continue posting here. The comment that prompted this has been deleted.”
Bombshell! Farewell DTT. I have mixed feelings about this. As much as her omnishambles posts annoyed the frack out of me at times, and SS comparisons with Israel are beyond the pale IMO, I’m pretty sad about the decision I have to say.
Perhaps a short suspension rather than termination would be in order, I beseech you Oh Lord god almighty?
I agree with you. It is hardly a coincidence that any discussion of the current hopeless government has to include “the RGR wars”. Editor’s firm hand clamps down.
Roger @ 7.40
Kudelka here https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/24061787c7872b26905993ff4ddb878e
I do like “diatribe of drivel”.
Poor spellers please note drivel, not dribble.
I assume you mean that it was generally wise not to take DTT’s analyses too seriously and that since we knew to take them with a grain of salt more generally, then we knew to take the comments on Israel/Jews with a grain of salt? I recall several posters being called a racist by DTT because I refused to take DTT’s Grand Ebola Conspiracy seriously. Joke, right?
Here is the thing, IMO.
Comparing Israel’s treatment of the occupied territories to the Nazi treatment of the Warsaw Ghetto is beyond the pale. In fact it would probably fall foul of any Holocaust Denial laws.
Beyond that there are Australian citizens who lost relatives in the Ghetto. It may be political, but it is definitely personal. There is no good reason at all to potentially subject them to what DTT posted.
William owns the blog and cannot possibly be expected to own in any way, shape or form to ‘own’ comments like that, to leave them up, or not to take some action to prevent recurrence.
Inter alia, at the very least, it would virtually force him to vet every future comment from DTT before they are published.
The behaviour of the state of Israel is open to considerable criticism. This can be done legitimately and validly without it being anti-semitic. Care must be taken with the language and with the small intellectual challenge of being careful not to conflate criticism of (or defence of) the state of Israel with criticism of (or defence of) all Jewish people.
The recent passing of laws defining the state of Israel as a Jewish state does not help at all in this respect.
Beyond that, critics and defenders, need to be conscious of another consideration. Why give Israel priority for this over other states? There may be good reasons. They need to be explicit rather than implicit.
Thursday, February 21, 2019 at 8:08 am
25m25 minutes ago
The Australian long ago abandoned any unbiased, factual reporting of politics, but today’s paper soars to new heights of absurdity. It is a diatribe of drivel.
I do like “diatribe of drivel”.
Poor spellers please note drivel, not dribble.’
A dribble of drivel written by a drabble of dregs?
Andrew E….More than just a few of dtt’s misconstructions amount to holocaust denial. Their anti-Semitism could hardly be accidental, considering how frequently the same tropes were invoked. I for one will not miss them. This site should not become known as a refuge for racist trolls and I applaud William’s decision.
There are times I have found Katherine Murphy to be a let down. Most notably over the Barnaby Joyce scandal. However Kudos to her for making a clarion call to journalists.
As she concludes. Without reporting facts what is the point of journalism?
Morning all. Thanks BK. I have said for a while Labor should focus on Liberal corruption as an election issue. With so many separate scandals running now it seems fairly obvious that is the case.
“Simon Benson in The Australian trumpets that new independent modelling has found Labor’s 45 per cent emissions-reduction target would push power prices 50 per cent higher.”
This is utter nonsense. SA has just proven the opposite. How can adopting a cheaper form of power generation increase power prices? New capital expense is needed either way. Old coal plant operators in Vic and NSW want to close down their plants because they are too costly to run. I would say the modelling is as independent as The Australian itself.
I call words like the misused dribble, “footballers’ English”. Hyped up after a game and asked to comment for the media, they spill out a gabble of words made up mostly of well-worn phrases copied from their coach.
Accepting his numbers, 50% higher in ten years, OH THE HORROR. So how did the previous 10 years go ?
These two things are connected:
Neil Clark Retweeted Asa Winstanley
Overnight Joan Ryan became the 8th Labour MP to join the ´Independent Group’. She’s the Chair of Labour ´Friends of Israel’ & 6 of the 8 are Supporters of LFI. Moreover Ryan was caught on camera discussing £1m of MPs trips to Israel. Yet we’re being gaslighted to ignore all this”
“What examples are there of the last Labor government’s cronyism and institutional corruption analogous to AWU scandal, Palladin, franking credits enquiry, Hellowworld?”
Exactly. In terms of actual $ Labor’s worst scandals were some expense issues that went into the thousands. The Liberal scandals involve hundreds of millions. There is no comparison.
Fortunately it will soon revert to being the Opposition Oracle.
Given what we know about scandals thanks social media and what the media is reporting it is making me wonder what other scandals have been missed.
Of course we should not have been surprised after the AWB scandal. Tony Abbott did promise Howard government experience.
I think you meant to post that in the Brexit thread.
“There are times I have found Katherine Murphy to be a let down”
Clearly an understatement, Gaytaur. Katharine is only pissed off because Scomo and the mob gave her beloved Truffles the boot. She has now become a Liberal Party outsider because of her connections to Turnbull, and she ain’t taking it well.
I suppose you avoided Murphy on The Drum because you are already prejudiced against her.
Noticed in Senate estimates hearings last night that Get Up is the favourite LNP target.
They must be feeling the heat big time
I must increase the size of my donations to Get Up
Gauytaur: “I think you meant to post that in the Brexit thread”
OK. I’ll leave the image here because it is basically true about everything in Australian politics and media, the the other bit can go in Brexit, and I can cross-reference the two bits.
Boerwar and Briefly. I accept what you say, however my plea on behalf of DTT was about the penalty not the offence. I ask for clemency and mercy – plus a clear understanding from DTT (and everyone else frankly) that the intercene politics of Israel and palistine are now verboten (unless they directly relate to Australian politics).
On a related note I am glad there is now a separate Brexit thread. I just wish there were seperate threads for the Trump implosion and 2020 presidential races: that would help keep the main threads on topic & given the huge year of local politics ahead of us, streamlining the main threads can only be for the best.
I don’t watch the Drum, or anything on the ABC (apart from Get Krackin and Gardening Australia). The point I am making is that Murphy would not be saying what she is saying if Malcolm was still PM (and all this corruption flourished under Turnbull) – Kath would still be in the tent with Michelle and Fran.