The first Ipsos poll of the year for the Nine newspapers is the best for the Coalition of the five published under Scott Morrison’s prime ministership, with Labor’s lead cut from 54-46 to 51-49 since the December poll. The Coalition gains two on the primary vote to 38% while Labor slips four to 33% (albeit that the last result was something of an outlier, as Ipsos leans on the low side with primary votes for both major parties). The Greens meanwhile are steady on 13%, a characteristically high result for them from Ipsos. The two-party figure is presumably based on 2016 election preference flows – we should have a result for respondent-allocated preferences later (UPDATE: 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences as well).
There is little corresponding movement on leadership ratings: Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 49% and up one on disapproval to 40%, Shorten is down one to 40% and up two to 52% (relatively positive results on leadership ratings being a further peculiarity of Ipsos), and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 46-37 to 48-38. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1200 from Tuesday to Friday, which makes it an imperfect measure of the impact, if any, of the parliamentary vote on asylum seekers on Tuesday.
The same goes for the other poll this weekend, a Queensland-only affair on federal voting intention by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail (state voting intention results from the poll can be found in the post below). The news here for the government is bad, with Labor recording a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, which represents a 6% swing in that state since the 2016 election, and compares with a 50-50 result at the last such poll in November. The primary votes are Coalition 35% (down three on the last poll, compared with 43.2% at the 2016 election), Labor 34% (steady, compared with 30.9%), Greens 10% (up one, compared with 8.8%) and One Nation 8% (down one, and they only ran in a few seats in 2016).
The poll also has a question on the party with the “better plan on border security and asylum seekers” which finds the Coalition leading 44% to 29%, which is a par-for-the-course result for such a question. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810.
Scolding labels like Libling, Trotskyist, Pop-Left, for example? Yes, I would like to see less scolding of that nature.
Neoliberal is a term with a rich academic literature behind it and very specific, coherent, and relevant meanings (unlike the term Libling, for example).
You’ve heard of Godwin’s law?
Well, here’s TPOF’s law.
The first person to mention Blairite in an argument LOSES!!
Zoidlord
They do. Wages are too high and need reducing . Same goes for penalty rates. You know it makes sense 🙁
“Michaelia Cash has STILL not seen a transcript of the AFP evidence and says she will not comment on what was said, until she has seen it.”
_____________________________
No comment needed.
This is good from Labor on school chaplains:
Although it’s nowhere near as good as scrapping the whole program altogether and only hire secular counsellors with appropriate qualifications.
From The Grauniad live blog.
Jimmy D
That’s a clear indication of the Labour Party policy.
A reminder for you.
It was not Corbyn but Cameron who brought on the referendum/plebiscite
Labour did not vote for a hard Brexit result but wanted Remain as their position.
Labor got the votes for a No Confidence motion.
Corbyn’s Brexit proposal closer to the EU is looked favourably on by the EU.
For someone who believes in leaving Corbyn has done an awful lot for the Remainers.
Yet he gets blamed instead of May for standing up and saying no. My way or the Highway is unacceptable . The Tories must negotiate
Zoidlord
Starve ordinary people of money,they put less money back into the economy. Simple economics 101.
There is still an outside chance that the Brits will end up partially inside the EU by way of a customs union. Apparently this is what the chief Labor Brexiteer, Corbyn, wants. Or something like that.
They will have more or less totally lost control/influence over the settings for for tariffs and the like.
They will have substantially lost the option of doing separate trade deals with third parties that mean anything real.
They may have some form of increased control over people movement which should keep the racists, xenophobes and atavists with that warm Dunkirk feeling. They will have a bit of a problem with illegals stepping across 500km of Irish border… but hey.
They will have suffered disastrous increases in sovereign risk… only fools would trust this generation of Brits to anything at all predictable or rational in the national interest.
Private sector investment patterns inside such a customs union will for at least a decade substantially favour non-Brit destinations.
IndependentS I can understand because there are more than one
But why GreenS, when there is only one in the House of Government?
The GreenS and the Independents gives the wrong impression of there being more than one Green
Just refer to those on the Cross Bench as Crossbenchers, because that is what each of them are
DTT@12:30pm
A couple of things.
1. I consider anti-semitism a misnomer when it is referred against Christianity and Islam
Why? Because I consider Judaism, Christianity and Islam as Semitic religions. Your expression ‘anti-Judaism’ is the right word.
2. ‘There is marked rise in anti-semitism’.
I consider Palestinian is one of the root causes for Muslim people. Muslim people in different countries are different but one of their uniting causes is Palestinian cause although Saudi rulers are using it for political and Wahhabi religious purposes
BW
My hope was that the clashing fantasies would lead to a referendum of Remain
Leave May’s Deal
Corbyn’s Norway model.
Hard Exit.
That hope was dashed when I realised May is going the Thatcher not for turning approach
Actually, retailers reckon they should pay their own workers less and taxpayers should give money to rich retirees to spend in their shops. It all aligns with Morrison’s outburst about Labor punishing little kiddies at Christmas by limiting tax credits on franked dividends for rich retirees..
What a stupid comment by Marles in the shadow of an election. Completely ill-disciplined. Too busy rehearsing lines for his idiotic Sky News appearances with Pyne?
BW@2:00pm
Both May and Corbyn are duplicitous in their brexit dealings. They are both looking at it from the point of view of how to get a political win rather than what is good for the country. If they wanted what is good for UK then they would have already resigned as leaders of their respective parties
guytaur
May is,apparently, a remainer. The way she has been been behaving/negotiating has long made me wonder if she is trying to sabotage Brexit from the inside .
Burgey @ #2461 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 2:09 pm
What was his comment ?
On Brexit. Reflecting on my earlier thoughts (1) that it is already too late for a meaningful change of direction by Britain (away from a Hard Brexit) plus (2) that the imperative now is managing the Brexit crisis, I have to ask whether the timing of the 7, now 8, ex-Labour MPs was motivated by their also coming to this conclusion. If so perhaps they are positioning themselves to survive the crisis as it unfolds. They have given up on the Brexit process. They see a safer future outside a post-Brexit Labour Party.
Mike Carlton
@MikeCarlton01
It’s the same old rort, time and time again. A minister or MP gets sprung…makes feeble excuse…hastily pays back the money. No penalty, no sanction, not even a slap on the wrist. And the Australian people are fucking sick of it.
Rex,
WTTE that the collapse of the thermal coal industry would be “wonderful.” Idiotic.
Poroti
Maybe. The problem is May is incompetent and is letting the hard Brexiteers have too much relevance.
I just don’t see Labour giving into the blackmail and voting for May’s Deal.
With May refusing to negotiate and not doing an extension I see Hard Brexit as inevitable
Corbyn’s proposals are a fantasy – chief amongst them, that the UK should have a continuing say in all future EU trade deals, despite not being a member. Furthermore, he is not the Prime Minister and he will not be the Prime Minister before the 29th of March, so how exactly can he bring about an entirely different deal before then?
Corbyn refuses to deal with the fact that the UK only has three options: May’s deal, No deal, or remain.
The facts are that:
– despite his supposed opposition to no deal, Corbyn refused to facilitate a successful vote barring no deal via Yvette’s Cooper’s failed amendment;
– he refuses to facilitate a second referendum, and:
– has made the price for his support for May’s deal a set of demands that would be impossible for either the Conservatives or the EU to accept. (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/06/corbyn-lays-out-labours-terms-for-backing-may-on-brexit)
That leads me to the conclusion that Corbyn is attempting to facilitate a no-deal brexit by stealth.
LR
Yes that’s why the timing.
guytaur
“”That hope was dashed when I realised May is going the Thatcher not for turning approach””
They voted to leave, LEAVE, and get their country back from a Dogs Breakfast!.
It might be tough, but they got through the Second World War didnt they!.
A question regarding School Chaplains and Labor’s position
Why should secular participants require qualifications when chaplains don’t.
Surely they should all have these sort of qualifications!
Ven says:
Wednesday, February 20, 2019 at 2:04 pm
2. ‘There is marked rise in anti-semitism’.
I consider Palestinian is one of the root causes for Muslim people. Muslim people in different countries are different but one of their uniting causes is Palestinian cause although Saudi rulers are using it for political and Wahhabi religious purposes
_______________________________________
This is true, but the question is why? There are many more situations where people are being murdered just for being Muslim – like the Roningyas, or the wrong kind of Muslim. And people are being dispossessed. Christians in Pakistan and Egypt are subject to murderous attacks and persecution.
So why is Palestine so important to the Muslim world?
I give up – I have trawled through thousands of PB comments from about a week ago looking for
1. That graph of Asylum Seekers (including plane arrivals) over time
2. The table showing boat and plane arrivals over the same time
I remember them both being posted here (?sprocket) – can anyone remember when, or does anyone have them?
JimmyD
You are saying Labor should hand May a victory due to blackmail.
Corbyn has been clear for a long time. May must negotiate not blackmail. Its why running down the clock has become a familiar line in the HOC
Burgey @ #2467 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 2:15 pm
Why ?
guytaur @ #2468 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 1:15 pm
Me too. May I remove your other recorded guesses (No Brexit and General Election)?
LR
Yes.
citizen @ #2434 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 1:38 pm
Added to the list:
…
The Help will have to go
No more charitable donations
Crappy Christmas pressies for the grandchildren
Having to drink sparkling wine instead of Champagne™
Rex,
I know you’re being deliberately obtuse, because no one could be that stupid, but for abundant caution – it’s a dumb comment because there are a large number of voters in winnable seats who either work in or are reliant on that industry. It’s a stupid comment for him to make, and it’s insensitive to those voters and their families.
Just flicked on QT and guess what, Scotty banging on about border protection.
Guytaur@1:15pm
‘PM Corbyn and President Sanders’ Only in fantasy land
Ven
Its not a dumb comment as a warning to the CFMEU work with Labor if you want transition.
No, I’m saying Corbyn and Labour should vote for no deal, for which there are the numbers in Parliament. After that, they should push for a second referendum.
The fact that he won’t do either of these things betrays Corbyn’s true motivations.
What’s your excuse?
Ven
Its possible. After all we have PM May and Trump
Jimmy D
That just shows your delusion that Labour should give the Tories victories.
Long term a hard Brexit will have the Brits begging to rejoin the EU
Unlike you I recognise immovable objects meeting irresistible force.
Nicholas says:
Wednesday, February 20, 2019 at 1:54 pm
I’m quite prepared to use my own imagination and critical faculties to come up with descriptive terms. If I do say so myself, “Libling” is a gem. It describes G decoy politics to a fault. The term “neo-Lib” is basically rubbish. It is used to describe all manner of things. Mostly it’s invoked in political slanging by pop-left groupies. It’s not a meaningful category in economics.
Burgey @ #2480 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 2:26 pm
I’m known as not one of Marles greatest fans, but…
“The global market for thermal coal has collapsed, and wonderful — that’s a good thing — because what that implies is the world is acting in relation to climate change,”
That’s not a stupid comment. That’s a factual comment.
“There are lots of ways in which you can generate employment…”
That’s not a stupid comment. That’s a factual comment.
So, a question for you…. do you support Bill Ludwig and the CFMMEU threats to campaign against any Labor candidate who refuse to support Adani ?
https://outline.com/ECNESb
Late Riser @ #2465 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 2:12 pm
Safer, possibly. But no future. Quite the opposite – they may just be dealing themselves out of history.
Here is where I think we are heading:
1. May will not turn, but neither will the hard-Brexit Tories. This means a hard-Brexit is the most likely outcome (with a soft-Brexit still possible if enough non-Tories were to support May).
2. May could resign at that point, but I don’t think she will. She will instead contest – but decisively lose – the next election. But in any case Corbyn will become PM with a significant Labour majority.
3. Corbyn and Labour will be faced with the job of cobbling together what they can from the hard-Brexit rubble. Labor is also deeply conflicted on the issue, of course – but they will now be in a position to take none of the blame but reap all of the credit.
4. The Tories will split into a centre-right and a hard-right party. Some disaffected Labour members will join the centre-right party – which is probably where they belonged all along.
All Corbyn has to do is keep his mouth shut and hang onto his job for a few more months. Whoever is Labour party leader almost can’t help coming out a political winner. Corbyn knows this. And of course so do others – which is why some people are getting desperate to have him removed now. Anti-semitism is just a tool of the moment. There will be others deployed in the coming weeks and months.
P1@1:33pm
It is skewed because because Sanders joined a couple of days ago.
DTT
“I consider…. Christianity…. a semitic religion”.
—————
Well bully for you.
Christianity, like all religions, is an amalgam of a number of theological and philosophical traditions. It has, at its core, fundamental differences to Judaism and the later religion of Islam.
These fundamental differences are largely Greek. The belief in the incarnation, the “trinity”, the rejection of ritual pure/impure foods/creatures, mutilation of boy children, etc are rooted in Hellenic philosophy.
The differences between traditional Christianity and Judaism were even more marked by the development of Judaism after the destruction of the Jerusalem Temple.
Jesus may have been a Jew, but Christ was/is definitely Greek. 🙂
That’s a reprehensible argument. A no deal brexit will break up the UK and impoverish England and Wales for a generation.
Corbyn has publicly vowed he and Labour would “do everything we can” to prevent a no deal brexit.
https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-no-deal-second-referendum-jeremy-corbyn-we-will-do-everything-to-prevent/
It is clear that this was a lie, given his own actions.
This is not about “handing the Tories a victory”. This is about preventing an economic disaster. That should be Corbyn’s only concern.
Champion just botched his question. Hopeless.
Corbyn has been intent on enabling a No Deal Brexit all along. It is about to happen. He’s hoping the tories will get the blame. But he is also culpable. The politically homeless millions of Remainers have been abandoned.
Ven @ #2490 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 2:37 pm
If you think Sanders suddenly has 43% support then it is not just the poll that is skewed!
Jimmy D
The problem is you are buying the Tories blackmail timeline.
When May refused to move after the No Confidence motion and no general election that was it.
Hard Brexit time. Labour cannot give into the blackmail.
This is the Tories mess not Labour’s
Player One
Are you assuming a British General Election will occur soon after Brexit? I haven’t thought about that. Is it likely?
Rex,
No I don’t support them, and yes it is a comment reeking of stupidity of the highest order.
Why is it stupid? I’ll spell it out again. It’s stupid in its insensitivity to the workers in that industry or others which rely on it, and their families. And a large number of those people vote. If a senior politician from any Party makes a comment like Marles did, they are an idiot.
If Marles had said wtte of “The industry has collapsed and the reality is it probably won’t come back. We are determined to help the workers and communities who rely on that industry to transition etc etc” that would be fine. But to have a bit of a chortle and express happiness about people losing their jobs is manifest stupidity for any politician.
I know as a Greens supporter you probably haven’t had a job, let alone faced losing one. But it can be quite traumatic.