The first Ipsos poll of the year for the Nine newspapers is the best for the Coalition of the five published under Scott Morrison’s prime ministership, with Labor’s lead cut from 54-46 to 51-49 since the December poll. The Coalition gains two on the primary vote to 38% while Labor slips four to 33% (albeit that the last result was something of an outlier, as Ipsos leans on the low side with primary votes for both major parties). The Greens meanwhile are steady on 13%, a characteristically high result for them from Ipsos. The two-party figure is presumably based on 2016 election preference flows – we should have a result for respondent-allocated preferences later (UPDATE: 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences as well).
There is little corresponding movement on leadership ratings: Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 49% and up one on disapproval to 40%, Shorten is down one to 40% and up two to 52% (relatively positive results on leadership ratings being a further peculiarity of Ipsos), and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 46-37 to 48-38. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1200 from Tuesday to Friday, which makes it an imperfect measure of the impact, if any, of the parliamentary vote on asylum seekers on Tuesday.
The same goes for the other poll this weekend, a Queensland-only affair on federal voting intention by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail (state voting intention results from the poll can be found in the post below). The news here for the government is bad, with Labor recording a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, which represents a 6% swing in that state since the 2016 election, and compares with a 50-50 result at the last such poll in November. The primary votes are Coalition 35% (down three on the last poll, compared with 43.2% at the 2016 election), Labor 34% (steady, compared with 30.9%), Greens 10% (up one, compared with 8.8%) and One Nation 8% (down one, and they only ran in a few seats in 2016).
The poll also has a question on the party with the “better plan on border security and asylum seekers” which finds the Coalition leading 44% to 29%, which is a par-for-the-course result for such a question. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810.
DTT @ 1:07
If what you say is true aren’t you at all concerned about the rise of nationalism and the destruction of the EU?
For someone so worried about Hillary starting WW3 I think you need to go over the history of the creation of the EU.
Rex Douglas @ #1993 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 12:13 pm
Yeah, that. 100% that. Leadership isn’t hiding from hypothetical Coalition fear campaigns. Leadership is doing the right thing and then staring down the fear campaign.
imacca @ #2351 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 11:37 am
I think they have run out of time. The Guardian had a rough timetable up last week I think, where shipping was the first carriage to go over the cliff at about the 50 day mark, being how long it takes some container ships to get to where they are going. I failed to find it in a quick search just now, but if I find it again I’ll post it.
My guess at this stage is that the only plausible options left are No Brexit or Hard Brexit, and of those Hard Brexit is most likely. From my reading Continental Europeans have given up on the Brits and now just want the distraction finished and them to go away.
I’m not sure that blame is something the British can afford at this stage. They have a crisis to fix.
Hindsight is only a little better, in that it could offer clues as to what might still be helpful. I’m thinking about the backstop. Supporting Irish reunification might ease some troubles. I would guess most Brits don’t care too much about the fate of N.I.
Beyond that I have NFI.
Re Yabba @12:57 – George Christensen makes Barnaby look slim.
mikehilliard @ #2380 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 10:01 am
I work with two members of the Liberal Party (WA) and they have a weird fixation with GetUp. Just yesterday one of them buttonholed me in a conversation about GetUp’s purported activities in Pearce.
I would have thought it would be much more logical for them to concern themselves with the activities of the Redshirts and Change the Rules, who between them are *actually* door knocking and calling thousands of people a week in Pearce. They have little interest in the activities of either, even when I bring it up.
If someone could oblige me and explain the weird fixation the L/NP have with GetUp I’d really appreciate it.
Edit: sloppy proof reading.
Yep a r they have taken a huge gulp of the Murdoch supplied Kool Aid re Corbyn.
This from the Guardian blog:
The Greens leader Richard Di Natale has a few things to say about Labor and the Christmas Island proposal:
Just when you begin to hope that the Labor Party was starting to find a backbone on refugees, Bill Shorten has gone to water,” he said in a statement.
“Despite his deputy saying the Government’s policy to transfer sick patients to Christmas island for treatment was ‘difficult to understand’ and his Immigration spokesperson saying the reopening the centre was ‘silly’, Bill Shorten thinks it’s ‘fine’.
“Buying into Scott Morrison’s propaganda that there is any need to reopen Christmas Island, or that it has the required medical facilities, is a failure of leadership.
“All it took was a litle criticism from Peter Dutton and one bad poll result for Bill Shorten to get spooked and start aligning himself with the Liberal Government on the issue again.
“A government that is determined to shun the will of the parliament and refuse to bring sick people here for treatment, deserves a strong opposition – not a benign collaborator.”
__________________________________________
Now, all I’ll do is note that Labor – NOT the Greens or other crossbenchers – are the ones who are being subject to relentless lies about the Medevac law and its impact from a desperate government. Apart from the Greens claiming credit for the law (“we thought of it first”) they have not been out loud and proud to push back against the lies and defend Labor. But Labor taking a position which will get people out of Manus and Nauru the quickest, and the Greens are up in arms.
The sad fact about the Greens are they are no less interested in getting seats at the expense of the people on Manus and Nauru than the Liberals.
And what di Natale should have been saying:
“Tanya Plibersek has just been asked that very question at the press club:
Your second question pretends there is some difference between Bill and I on the issue of asylum seekers – it is not true.
The proposition is absolutely false. But what I’ll say – I’ll say this: It is up to the government to explain how people who cannot be adequately treated on Manus Island and Nauru can have adequate medical treatment on Christmas Island.
It is up to them to explain how that can happen. It is up to them to explain how they justify the extra expense of doing it this way given that this government has already brought hundreds of people from Manus Island and Nauru to Australia to the mainland for medical treatment.
The last briefing we got, I think the security agency said the number of people who had been brought here for medical treatment by this government in recent times was close to 400.
And the number of accompanying family members was something over 500.
How can it be safe for those people to be brought here by Peter Dutton but we need to open Christmas Island for anybody else? I’d like the government to explain that.””
(From the Guardian blog).
NEWSFLASH – Little kiddies face a bleak christmas under Labor:
Helloworld shares down over 11% today. Coincidence?
Apparently you can’t count votes, because Corbyn and Labour are key facilitators of this looming brexit disaster. They have the numbers to help May pass a brexit deal. They also have the numbers to stop a no deal brexit, and the numbers to bring on a second referendum.
The fact that he will do none of the above proves that Corbyn is a wrecker. No amount of rhetorical BS will disguise that fact.
Corbyn is a disgrace and should be hounded out of public life.
TPOF
Someone in the Greens needs to watch live pressers.
The Greens are going to regret ignoring that if.
Yeah, that. 100% that. Leadership isn’t hiding from hypothetical Coalition fear campaigns. Leadership is doing the right thing and then staring down the fear campaign.
____________________________________
You forgot to insert the gif of the knight from Monty Python with the flesh wounds.
meher baba
😆 What you describe has been pretty much mainstream US foreign policy for decades .
citizen says:
Wednesday, February 20, 2019 at 1:22 pm
NEWSFLASH – Little kiddies face a bleak christmas under Labor:
Christmas gifts for kids at risk: PM
12:43PMADAM CREIGHTON
Retirees’ donations to charities and Christmas gift giving were under threat, says Scott Morrison, as he slammed Labor’s “blatant tax grab”. (Oz headline)
_____________________________
That’s terrible! What will the kiddies play with during all those classroom times where schools cannot afford teachers?
a r @ #2400 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 1:16 pm
The capitulations are just an acknowledgement of an overall lack of ability to communicate.
poroti @ #2412 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 1:25 pm
True that.
😀
I better do some work myself…
Citizen
This is the only the tip of the iceberg of the scare campaign.I’m waiting that loss of franking credits will cause dementia,cancer, a suicide increase of pensioners and the curtains to fade.
Jimmy D
Wrong.
May should have negotiated.
Its that simple.
Giving the parliament a fait accompli was never going to work.
The EU has been crystal clear. No changes to the deal.
A lot of people are suffering delusion over Brexit.
Brexit is just a right wing fascist excuse to avoid responsibilities of it’s own country and the world.
It looks like a lot of HelloWorld customers don’t receive the same excellent service that Cormann received for free from the CEO.
https://www.productreview.com.au/listings/helloworld
Morrison has jumped a few sharks.
Invoking the spirit of Christmas in his attacks on labor’s tax reform plans is one of his best.
Morrison has jumped a few sharks.
Invoking the spirit of Christmas in his attacks on labor’s tax reform plans is one of his best.
I’m in favour of the resumption by the State of certain industries in the UK – the railways, the PO, parts of the utilities – and the extension of egalitarian systems in education. I’ve never opposed those things. What I’m troubled by is the abject weakness – the miserable cowardice – of Corbyn’s leadership. This can be seen most clearly in relation to Brexit, which will produce very great disruption and hardship. It is evident in relation to racism in Labour.
None of the economic and social objectives that Labour subscribe to can be delivered while Corbyn and his supporters run Labour. They will produce only defeat.
Zoidlord @ #2016 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 12:30 pm
And also an attempt by foreign adversaries to weaken both the EU and the UK. Mission accomplished!
Gee I wish I lived in Utopia RexLand
Where everything seems to be made of Milk &Honey where there’s no wrong just right.
Where unicorns roam free and wild and there are endless rainbows to enjoy.
But back in the real world where the bulk of people live, sometimes you just have to suck it up ,and take the good with the bad.
Here’s a rainbow for you.
DaretoTread @ #2354 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 12:42 pm
You didn’t read what I wrote, did you? Sanders goes from nowheresville to 43% in one poll?
That’s not skewed, that’s hacked.
That assumes being reasonable gets equal time.
The encryption laws are unworkable, I have not noticed any changes to WhatsApp, so IMO they are not very urgent and can wait until after the election.
Ms Plibersek delivered a good speech. She came across as someone who has lived through many of the issues as a mother and who cares deeply about the issues.
Ms Plibersek is a seasoned mature political leader as demonstrated by her calm handling of clumsy gotcha attempts from various paid-for journalists, her nifty avoidance of cheap journalistic attempts to verbal various Labour Party spokespersons, her considered and well-reasoned responses to policy and/or technical questions on the issues of education.
Ms Plibersek will make an excellent Labour Deputy Prime Minister of Australia. She has the stature, the gravitas, the lived experience, political maturity, the sense of humour, and a deft handling of complex policy issues.
Compare and contrast: McCormack, the Greens candidate potential Deputy Prime Minister (whomever that might be) and the PHON nominee for potential prime minister (whomever that might be).
Mercury
@themercurycomau
18s18 seconds ago
AN inmate at Risdon Prison has given his take on the “absolutely disgraceful” conditions inside the jail, saying prisoners are being neglected of “basic rights”. http://bit.ly/2tvMXLQ
lizzie says:
Wednesday, February 20, 2019 at 12:10 pm
But that’s Rex’s great value.
You read what he suggests and you can immediately discount it as an appropriate course of action. 😆
Player One @ #2023 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 12:33 pm
More likely botted than hacked. The difference is that one’s generally legal, the other generally is not.
I agree.
Apparently you are one of them where Corbyn is concerned.
Corbyn is an arch-Brexiteer in sheep’s clothing, and there are far too many left-wing and progressive people who refuse to come to terms with that fact.
For those following ,an alet….
36s ago 13:37
Michaelia Cash has turned up in the education and employment estimates.
Doug Cameron is thrilled.
The Woolworths CEO quoted on ‘The World Today’ has a way of measuring subdued economic activity at the moment:
Sales of champagne are down and sales of cheaper fizzy white wine are up.
I found the link to the countdown published in The Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/08/countdown-to-brexit-key-dates-uk-eu-exit-approaches
Some of the dates:
6 days ago:
My reading of this is that an “urgent circumstance” would allow this deadline to be pushed to no later than 1 March, which is only 9 days away.
Today:
Jimmy D
Your delusion is expecting a Leaver to oppose leaving.
Briefly, now I get it, you call Corbyn an extremist not because of his socialism, but because of his opposition to Israel re Palestine.
South Australia. Prepare to be royally screwed over regarding Poodle promises.
.
.
“Before the last election [defence minister] Christopher Pyne told South Australians that the local build, the local content, the Australian content would be 90%…. then that became 60%.
Guess what we learned today in Senate estimates: there is no minimum Australian content for our submarines program
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/feb/20/senate-estimates-coalition-labor-cash-politics-live
Question @ #2389 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 1:09 pm
Actually, the Australian encryption bill – unlike the similar NZ and UK ones – is quite workable. The problem with the Australian bill is that it will not actually catch those it is purported to be aimed at.
Now, don’t mistake me – I’m not in favor of the bill, and a case can certainly be made that it is actually intended for general surveillance rather than specific surveillance (as it is supposed to be) – but the key difference between it and the UK and NZ legislation is that it does not attempt to break or weaken encrytpion itself – it just bypasses it if possible. As such, it is fairly easily subverted by anyone who knows what they are doing.
briefly @ #2423 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 10:31 am
And even less of them would be delivered if the splitters were in charge.
So you admit that Corbyn has lied when it comes to brexit? These are his own words:
https://web.archive.org/web/20160912052125/http://press.labour.org.uk/post/145299237434/jeremy-corbyn-mp-leader-of-the-labour-party
Corbyn has never publicly admitted he supports brexit because he knows that would destroy his support with the membership – or whatever’s left of it.
It took them a while, but the Brits have woken up to both May and Corbyn. Same same.
If ever the political elites, the best of the best in each Party, have utterly failed the rank and file, it is May and Corbyn.
Their problem now is who is next in line?
The leadership cupboard is not exactly inspiring.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/home-affairs-confirms-investigation-into-visa-corruption-claim-20190219-p50yt3.html
It’s only Wednesday.
Urban Wronski
@UrbanWronski
3m3 minutes ago
After Australia’s worst two years on record, do retailers see the problem? Rising household costs and low wage growth. https://www.michaelwest.com.au/after-australias-worst-two-years-on-record-do-retailers-see-the-problem/ … via @MichaelWestBiz
grimace says:
Wednesday, February 20, 2019 at 1:18 pm
I think the Libs hate GetUp because;
1. They are a grassroots movement that the Right could never hope to emulate.
2. They have demonstrated on numerous occasions that they are effective.
3. Being a progressive organisation their natural target will normally be the Right.
4. Not being politically aligned their campaigns often represent a new front that the Government needs to defend. 🙂
Dan Gulberry
The money people in The City are just gagging for the next crop of Blairies to be in government.
clem attlee says:
Wednesday, February 20, 2019 at 1:44 pm
Briefly, now I get it, you call Corbyn an extremist not because of his socialism, but because of his opposition to Israel re Palestine.
___________________________
Yep. If you are stuck for a comeback you can always go to the Palestinian issue. Strange that.
Victoria, if you are here.
In my record of Brexit Guesses, should I update you to
(e) Withdrawn Brexit?
You are currently recorded at it being equally likely that one of these will happen.
(c) Brexit Extension – Negotiations Continue
(d) Brexit Extension – New Referendum
This morning you wrote: