Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

The first Ipsos poll for the year produces a much stronger result for the Coalition – but another poll finds them struggling in Queensland.

The first Ipsos poll of the year for the Nine newspapers is the best for the Coalition of the five published under Scott Morrison’s prime ministership, with Labor’s lead cut from 54-46 to 51-49 since the December poll. The Coalition gains two on the primary vote to 38% while Labor slips four to 33% (albeit that the last result was something of an outlier, as Ipsos leans on the low side with primary votes for both major parties). The Greens meanwhile are steady on 13%, a characteristically high result for them from Ipsos. The two-party figure is presumably based on 2016 election preference flows – we should have a result for respondent-allocated preferences later (UPDATE: 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences as well).

There is little corresponding movement on leadership ratings: Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 49% and up one on disapproval to 40%, Shorten is down one to 40% and up two to 52% (relatively positive results on leadership ratings being a further peculiarity of Ipsos), and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 46-37 to 48-38. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1200 from Tuesday to Friday, which makes it an imperfect measure of the impact, if any, of the parliamentary vote on asylum seekers on Tuesday.

The same goes for the other poll this weekend, a Queensland-only affair on federal voting intention by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail (state voting intention results from the poll can be found in the post below). The news here for the government is bad, with Labor recording a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, which represents a 6% swing in that state since the 2016 election, and compares with a 50-50 result at the last such poll in November. The primary votes are Coalition 35% (down three on the last poll, compared with 43.2% at the 2016 election), Labor 34% (steady, compared with 30.9%), Greens 10% (up one, compared with 8.8%) and One Nation 8% (down one, and they only ran in a few seats in 2016).

The poll also has a question on the party with the “better plan on border security and asylum seekers” which finds the Coalition leading 44% to 29%, which is a par-for-the-course result for such a question. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,918 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Player One says:
    Wednesday, February 20, 2019 at 2:41 pm
    Ven @ #2490 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 2:37 pm

    P1@1:33pm
    It is skewed because because Sanders joined a couple of days ago.
    If you think Sanders suddenly has 43% support then it is not just the poll that is skewed!

    _____________________________________

    It’s a straw poll. Meaning that it is meaningless. Like asking people at a Trump rally who they want to be the Republican candidate in 2020.

  4. guytaur
    This is the Tories mess not Labour’s

    If Corbyn’s fails to abide by his own promise to prevent a no deal brexit, for which he has very real, concrete options that he has so far refused to implement, then he will bear just as much blame as Cameron, May, and the rest of the Tories.

  5. From Amy’s blog. If true how is this legal ? How could Hockey not be sanctioned ? This is fcuking corrupt.

    ….today it was reported that US Ambassador Joe Hockey, who has a million-dollar shareholding in Helloworld, helped a Helloworld subsidiary lobby for embassy travel contracts.

  6. Burgey @ #2498 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 2:46 pm

    Rex,

    No I don’t support them, and yes it is a comment reeking of stupidity of the highest order.

    Why is it stupid? I’ll spell it out again. It’s stupid in its insensitivity to the workers in that industry or others which rely on it, and their families. And a large number of those people vote. If a senior politician from any Party makes a comment like Marles did, they are an idiot.

    If Marles had said wtte of the industry has collapsed and the reality is it probably won’t come back. We are determined to help the workers and communities who rely on that industry to transition etc etc” that would be fine. But to have a bit of a chortle and express happiness about people losing their jobs is manifest stupidity for any politician.

    I know as a Greens supporter you probably haven’t had a job, let alone faced losing one. But it can be quite traumatic.

    So, you don’t/can’t read from his comments I posted that he supports coal workers transitioning to cleaner, more sustainable jobs going forward ?

  10. JimmyD

    concrete options that he has so far refused to implement

    You have noticed who is in government and who is PM ? You speak as if Corbyn is running the show.

  12. Guy Rundle, an opinion to counteract the “same-same” fools who cannot think clearly.

    We now have a fundamental asymmetry in Australian politics. One major political party, Labor, capable of government; one minor, the Greens, with some internal strife, but no accusations of rorting. And on the other side something that is neither a Coalition, nor parties at all. It’s simply a random, rhizomatic piss cloud of sleaze, grift, incompetence, reactionary obsessiveness, glued together by nothing other than hatred not merely of the left, but of good government itself, and an eye for the skim off the top.

  13. Rex,

    You have the political nous of a door stop. If you can’t see the problem with what Marles said, then you are beyond help, and I wish for you a long, well-remunerated and happy career providing political advice to all of the Labor Party’s opponent’s.

  14. alfred venison @ #2088 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 7:35 am

    to reiterate :- the best coverage of the mueller investigation is emptywheel – https://www.emptywheel.net

    Another worth following is

    https://www.reddit.com/r/ShitPoppinKreamSays/

    ––––––––––––––––––

    re Brexit

    Without in any way diminishing whatever responsibility and culpability they bear, I do have a little (just a little) sympathy for both May and Corbyn. Brexit is about as poisoned a chalice as you can get in politics, short of major war.

    And I don’t think it is doing the EU any good either.

    Putin must be very pleased with it all. 🙁

    ––––––––––––––––––

    poroti @ #2503 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 1:20 pm

    From Amy’s blog. If true how is this legal ? How could Hockey not be sanctioned ? This is fcuking corrupt.

    ….today it was reported that US Ambassador Joe Hockey, who has a million-dollar shareholding in Helloworld, helped a Helloworld subsidiary lobby for embassy travel contracts.

    The really scary bit is how blatant and shameless they are about it. Like they believe they will never be held to account for it.

    And they have good reason to believe that. 🙁

  15. I still think my sequence of events is likely, but the election will be triggered by a no confidence motion called by Labour after the hard-Brexit. Corbyn has already said he will initiate one, but he has not said when.

  16. Player One @ #2501 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 1:48 pm

    Late Riser @ #2497 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 2:44 pm

    Player One

    Are you assuming a British General Election will occur soon after Brexit? I haven’t thought about that. Is it likely?

    The election has to be held by May 5.

    Are you sure? A quick search returned May 5, 2022 as the latest date.
    https://electionarium.com/will-next-british-general-election/
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election

  18. Poroti,

    There is currently very likely a majority in Parliament that can be assembled to block a no deal brexit, should Labour bring its numbers behind such an amendment. There are enough Conservative remainers and soft brexiters who would vote for such an amendment.

    There may also be enough to force a second referendum, but this is less certain.

    Corbyn is the chief obstacle in the way of these options.

  21. PlayerOne
    I still think my sequence of events is likely

    Whatever happens with brexit, Corbyn will not be leader in 2022.

    He has comprehensively betrayed the membership base with his stance on brexit. If brexit happens, they will condemn him and abandon him.

  22. JimmyD @ #2516 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 1:57 pm

    Poroti,

    There is currently very likely a majority in Parliament that can be assembled to block a no deal brexit, should Labour bring its numbers behind such an amendment. There are enough Conservative remainers and soft brexiters who would vote for such an amendment.

    There may also be enough to force a second referendum, but this is less certain.

    Corbyn is the chief obstacle in the way of these options.

    Jimmy

    The trouble with opposing the No Deal option is that it leaves only the terrible may option which is the worst of both worlds – still ruled by EU, still no immigration controls but absolutely NO SAY in the EU rules. Barmy to support it.

    The ONLY two rational options are hard brexit of No brexit- Corbyn’s deal maybe but that will I think need to be negotiated AFTER a hard Brexit.

  23. I’ve heard stories about Hockey at the Embassy in Washington. Keeps staff waiting at all hours of the night to indulge his whims. Not liked.

  25. Burgey @ #2511 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 2:55 pm

    Rex,

    You have the political nous of a door stop. If you can’t see the problem with what Marles said, then you are beyond help, and I wish for you a long, well-remunerated and happy career providing political advice to all of the Labor Party’s opponent’s.

    I think Bill Ludwig and the CFMMEU are the ones with dubious ‘political nous’ re this Adani issue.

  28. TPOF@2:19pm
    I don’t know for sure but I have a theory
    1. Muslims of Arab world consider themselves as true muslims. I know for a fact muslims from other treated as third class people.
    2. Many Palestinians were kicked out of their homes by jews after Jewish homeland was created and made to suffer afterwards
    3. Muslims all over the world go to Saudi Arabia for indoctrination because they consider it as birth place of Islam and some in the process become terrorists and extremists

  29. I don’t think it matter what question Labor put to the government as the answer will invariably be about boats & borders.

    So the fact that Champion didn’t get his question out just saved us from more of the “same-same”. 🙂

  30. I’m reading Amy’s Guardian blog. Even the most basic and useless press gallery journalist is going to smell blood by the misdirection and obfuscation of the ‘responses’ by Morrison and Pyne to the questions about Hockey.

    This is not going away.

  34. Daretotread – you are incorrect. May’s deal means the UK “takes back” control of immigration. That was one of May’s red lines.

    May’s deal is the only logical option if you want to be able to negotiate free trade agreements, control the UK’s borders, while respecting the Good Friday Agreement.

    That’s why it’s the deal on offer.

  35. I’m not complaining, but this blog now has over half of its contributors and posts discussing British politics, which makes it difficult to sequentially follow lines of thought of either British or Australian politics.

    Would it be possible to have a dedicated thread for Australian politics, and leave this as the thread for UK posts?

  44. “Kevin Bonham says:
    Wednesday, February 20, 2019 at 3:10 pm
    I am advised that the deluge of ReachTEL calls in the last 48 hours are for internal refinement processes – not a client poll.”

    Nonetheless it would be good if they could release the results of responses obtained – an extremely large sample.

  45. The Australian government has banned notorious English conspiracy theorist David Icke from entering the country next month for a planned speaking tour.

    Among the bizarre claims made by Icke, a former footballer and BBC sports presenter, are that the world is controlled by a cabal of giant shape-shifting reptiles, and that a group of elite Jews bankrolled Adolf Hitler and started several wars.

    He also tells audiences the September 11 attacks were an inside job organised by “a network that works through government agencies, through organisations like the CIA”.

    Icke, 66, was due to tour Australia in March, but the government has now cancelled his visa, effectively banning him from entry.

    The office of Immigration Minister David Coleman has been contacted for comment.

  46. guytaur
    Nope you are ignoring political reality.

    Labour won’t give into blackmail.

    LOL you’ve already said both those slogans (or some variation of them) multiple times, while providing no substantive argument for them.

    Thank you for proving my point.

  48. Some numbers to contemplate:

    Total number of people in employment in Australia, Dec , 2018 : 12,352,000
    Total number of people employed in the coal mining industry: 55,000 = 0.45%

    Number who lost penalty rates: 700,000+

    Teachers and in-school staff: 405,000

    Overall Industry employment Nov 2017 Excuse formatting)
    Industry division of employment (‘000)
    Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 324.5 2.6
    Mining 216.5 1.7
    Manufacturing 885.5 7.1
    Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 136.7 1.1
    Construction 1,167.20 9.4
    Wholesale Trade 376.7 3.0
    Retail Trade 1,286.90 10.4
    Accommodation and Food Services 896.1 7.2
    Transport, Postal and Warehousing 646.8 5.2
    Information Media and Telecommunications 215 1.7
    Financial and Insurance Services 420.7 3.4
    Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 218.7 1.8
    Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 1,033.00 8.3
    Administrative and Support Services 401.2 3.2
    Public Administration and Safety 740.5 6.0
    Education and Training 1,024.30 8.2
    Health Care and Social Assistance 1,663.90 13.4
    Arts and Recreation Services 248.3 2.0
    Other Services 524.5 4.2
    Total employed 12,420.60

  50. I’m reading a lot of nonsense on here re Brexit.

    In terms of the livelihoods and well-being of a very large number of British people, there are three viable positions on Brexit, of which only the first two are in any way sensible:

    1) May’s deal, or some variant thereof that has some chance of being successfully negotiated with the EU;
    2) no Brexit; or
    3) a hard Brexit.

    A hard Brexit would seriously harm many millions of people in Britain. No person with an ounce of human feeling could possibly support this outcome.

    May – who, with all of her many faults, is a responsible and concerned person – did her best to negotiate a soft Brexit which would gain the support of the EU. It’s not perfect, but it’s real.

    Corbyn can dream all he likes about customs unions, the DUP can dream about Brexits without either a backstop or a hard border in Ireland and Rees-Mogg, BoJo and the rest of the Very Silly Party can dream about their nannies or whatever it is they fantasise about, but there’s currently no prospect of EU agreeing to any of these ideas.

    It is possible that Corbyn is really after a hard Brexit which he sees as the precursor to a glorious election victory in 2022 or whenever. If true, this would mean sacrificing the well-being of millions of people for the sake of political victory. In other words, the old Bolshevik principle of the ends justifying the means.

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