The first Ipsos poll of the year for the Nine newspapers is the best for the Coalition of the five published under Scott Morrison’s prime ministership, with Labor’s lead cut from 54-46 to 51-49 since the December poll. The Coalition gains two on the primary vote to 38% while Labor slips four to 33% (albeit that the last result was something of an outlier, as Ipsos leans on the low side with primary votes for both major parties). The Greens meanwhile are steady on 13%, a characteristically high result for them from Ipsos. The two-party figure is presumably based on 2016 election preference flows – we should have a result for respondent-allocated preferences later (UPDATE: 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences as well).
There is little corresponding movement on leadership ratings: Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 49% and up one on disapproval to 40%, Shorten is down one to 40% and up two to 52% (relatively positive results on leadership ratings being a further peculiarity of Ipsos), and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 46-37 to 48-38. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1200 from Tuesday to Friday, which makes it an imperfect measure of the impact, if any, of the parliamentary vote on asylum seekers on Tuesday.
The same goes for the other poll this weekend, a Queensland-only affair on federal voting intention by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail (state voting intention results from the poll can be found in the post below). The news here for the government is bad, with Labor recording a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, which represents a 6% swing in that state since the 2016 election, and compares with a 50-50 result at the last such poll in November. The primary votes are Coalition 35% (down three on the last poll, compared with 43.2% at the 2016 election), Labor 34% (steady, compared with 30.9%), Greens 10% (up one, compared with 8.8%) and One Nation 8% (down one, and they only ran in a few seats in 2016).
The poll also has a question on the party with the “better plan on border security and asylum seekers” which finds the Coalition leading 44% to 29%, which is a par-for-the-course result for such a question. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810.
How can the current staff of ASIC go hard on financial institutions given that previously they were the ‘softies’ and lived within that culture for years?
I would have thought a new team specifically recruited to implement the new attitude would be a better way to go.
‘Nicholas says:
Wednesday, February 20, 2019 at 7:38 am
Now we just need to find a way to pin this on Jeremy Corbyn
Twitter is often an abusive place. Jeremy Corbyn should have cleaned up Twitter by now. Nobody can be an effective political leader unless they transform Twitter into a uniformly irenic environment.’
I am curious about your views on each of the following statements:
There is no such thing as anti-semitism in the British Labor Party, its members, its organizational wing or its MPs.
Ms Berger is lying now and has been lying for some time.
None of the vast (2500 attacks in a single day) stream of anti-semitic abuse targetting Ms Berger comes from anyone in the Labor Party.
Even if some of it might possibly have piggy-backed on all the other abuse being heaped on the Seven, there is nothing that Mr Corbyn can do about it. Nothing.
Evidence of previous anti-semitic behaviours by Labor members and members of the Labor organisational wing as provided by Ms Berger (and others) was fake.
Mr Corbyn has not needed to publicly condemn any anti-semitic treatment of Ms Berger in particular because it did not happen.
The remaining Jewish MPs in the Labor Party are publicly silent on the issue of anti-semitism in the Labor Party and therefore no anti-semitism exists in the Labor Party. There can be no alternative explanation.
All criticisms of anti-semitism in the British Labor Party are false and are made in ‘bad faith’ by individuals and organizations wanting to destroy Labor.
Prioritizing the criticism of the state of Israel by the far left ideologues in the British Labor ahead of criticisms of other equally or worse behaving states is either a random accident or justified for some other set of reasons which are never really made explicit by anyone. It just happens that way.
The British Labor Part is part of society in general and therefore we can reasonably expect it to reflect that society in terms of housing anti-semitism. There is therefore no particular reason to be concerned about any anti-semitism in the British Labor Party.
Noting the increasing (global) trends in anti-semitic ‘incidents’ as well as the increasing trends in the abuse of social media to convey anti-semitic abuse is an example of ‘bad faith’ criticisms of anti-semitism.
Jenna Price about White Ribbon looks hastily written.
What is a pretty remarkable and concerning story is reduced to her to a few facts, some rather shallow observations from an academic and that is it.
I doubt she will follow up on the story.
b
They are safeguarding their cushy jobs for when Labour gets in OR, if Labour does not get in a lot of them will get the sack for years of non performance.
lizzie
‘Replying to @Barnaby_Joyce
Tablets mate …you forgot them before , take them now ‘
Using mental health as a political weapon is low, IMO.
Re Chinda63 @8:00.
That sounds far more plausible than Cormann’s story. Basically, Cormann took up a prior offer of free travel, rang his mate the CEO, who directed his staff to book Cormann’s holiday on a company account where it was meant to stay well hidden.
Has she caught the Alan Bond disease? It’s costing the taxpayer thousands for her to conveniently lose her memory.
If she’s suffering incipient dementia, the poor girl should resign. 😉
Boerwar
Other comments to Barnaby were far more insulting.
C@tmomma @ #2046 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 7:54 am
C@t – you could be right there.
Lizzie “Other comments to Barnaby were far more insulting” – comments from TW or others?
booleanbach @ #2051 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 8:07 am
I read yesterday that that is what they are going to do now in the wake of the Hayne RC. Investigations and Prosecutions will be a different silo to Public Relations. Which you would have thought was the logical thing to do from the get go.
Just when you thought war was no longer an option (not really):
https://www.truthdig.com/articles/americas-long-war-of-attrition-with-china-is-just-beginning/
This just doesn’t make sense as an excuse (from Michelle Grattan’s column):
Exactly.
This article shows that the departure of the “seven” from British labor is not really about Brexit but it is about foreign agffairs, national security and foreign affairs especially Russia and Syria. It is also about backing the UK media and business interests.
It also hints that some have jumped before being pushed by their Labor Party members ie lose pre-selection.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/19/the-ideological-lines-dividing-rebel-mps-from-labour-party
And I expect that the truth of the AFP raids on the AWU offices goes something like this:
Having set up the ROC an an instrument to nobble unions, the Federal Government determined to use its powers to attack the Opposition Leader Bill Shorten. Michaelia Cash, as “Employment” Minister, had carriage of this task. Her office went through the Dirt files and apparently couldn’t find anything in the previous decade, but did come across an obscure donation from a class enemy, the AWU, to another class enemy, GetUp, back in 2006 while Bill Shorten was head of the AWU. The matter was referred to the ROC, an organisation stacked with Coalition mates.
After some preliminary assessment, the ROC referrred the matter to the Australian Federal Police (AFP), another compromised organisation. The AFP determined that a raid on the AWU offices was required, obtained the required warrants and through back channels informed Cash’s office. Cash directed her staff to tip off friends in major media outlets to ensure maximum publicity, extensive coverage on the main news bulletins and banner headlines in the Daily Rupert, with a view to inflicting maximum damage on Labor, in particular, Bill Shorten.
This needs to be referred to the Federal ICAC when it is set up.
Given the cunning plan to circumvent the Medivac Act and the extensive list of inappropriate and possibly corrupt behaviour on the part of the Government, surely the cross bench must consider supporting a vote of no confidence.
Good line
“It’s Not Capitalism We Have to Save”–“-It’s Everything Else”
https://www.opednews.com/Quicklink/It-s-Not-Capitalism-We-Hav-in-Best_Web_OpEds-Capitalism-Failures_Capitalism-Over-Humanity_Liberty_Umair-Haque-190218-487.html
The crossbench wont support a motion of no confidence. They would lose power after the next election. Power now v no power later. Simple choice really.
Steve777 @ #2066 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 8:33 am
Also, I have not heard that anyone asked the AFP why the raid had such an extraordinary number of people on the ground during the raid. I seem to recall that it was way more than would normally be used for such an action.
But as nearly every day brings new revelations about secrets and scandals at the heart of the Catholic Church, it seems as if the monster confronting the church only grows larger.
I can’t see why they would not have expected the monster to grow & grow larger by the day!
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/19/europe/vatican-clergy-abuse-summit/index.html
Regarding the UK Labour 7:
“Tom Watsons public display of disloyalty is one of the most extraordinary spectacles in recent political history.”
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2019/02/tom-watsons-public-display-of.html
I just tried to book return airfares Perth to Sydney through Helloworld. There was no option to book now, pay later or leave my credit card details on file. You have to pay at the time of booking.
The belief among a certain demographic is that their level of importance places them above the law
In regards the culture and performance of our bankers (and others), surely the measure will be the credibility of the complaints made to the responsible authority and then the prosecutions by those responsible authorities?
To me any other measure has the credibility the current Federal government “enjoys”
And I add the caveat that all complaints will not be valid because they are not
Correct decisions by bankers will see disgruntled customers or potential customers
Bzzt. Almost 8% wider and 16% brighter than an average full moon.
And seriously MSM, “How to see” guides for a full moon?!
This is the key to the whole shebang:
Cash directed her staff to tip off friends in major media outlets to ensure maximum publicity
No smoking gun, shall we say as a result of deleted texts and the Ministers, Keenan and Cash, refusing to answer questions, means it will never be found.
Morning all
BK, Phoenix.
Much appreciation!
So much political news about, both here and abroad.
Re the power issue they really only have power till the end of parliament.businees tomorrow
They only come back in April for 2days re budget.
Confessions @ #2073 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 8:45 am
How do you think Andrew Burnes became one of Australia’s richest men? Networking, peddling influence and making the little guy pay through the nose. 🙂
C@t
It was obvious from the get go that the ROC investigation of AWU donation many years earlier was a political hit job.
Keenan is already retiring at next election, but Cash should resign in shame.
And to repeat myself again, when all the shit of Trumps and his fellow travellers actions are fully disclosed, it will be much worse than anyone thought. Much much worse,
Swamprat,
“Tom Watsons public display of disloyalty is one of the most extraordinary spectacles in recent political history.”
I have up on Watson long ago. Just another New Labour fraud.
It’s one thing to benefit financially via people in the know. Quite another to do so, selling out your country when you actually took an oath. Trumps name will be wiped from the records.
And deservedly so.
Mehdi Hasan says it right:
https://theintercept.com/2018/12/19/bernie-sanders-2020-election/
Sanders
No fool like an old fool
Vogon Poet
Gold star!
Vic:
The NY Times story linked to earlier is quite a read. As we’ve said many times before, if Trump has nothing to hide why is he always trying to discredit the Mueller investigation?
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/19/us/politics/trump-investigations.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
to reiterate :- the best coverage of the mueller investigation is emptywheel – https://www.emptywheel.net
Cohen was already offered an opportunity to do just that. He got scared and pulled out. This new promise will end no differently.
Nicholas @ #2084 Wednesday, February 20th, 2019 – 8:56 am
Sanders can’t win. We just have to hope he gets eliminated early so as not to muddy the swamp too much … again 🙁
Victoria: “And to repeat myself again, when all the shit of Trumps and his fellow travellers actions are fully disclosed, it will be much worse than anyone thought. Much much worse”
And if all the actions of the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison Government were to be disclosed, and that’s a big if, it will be much worse than anyone thought. Much much worse.
Fess
My timing on how all this would play out was totally off.
I thought by now it would all be done and dusted.
But the amoral conduct was always going to be exposed and manage to still shock the public.
Hope we are getting close now. Feels like forever!
DaretoTread says:
Wednesday, February 20, 2019 at 8:29 am
This article shows that the departure of the “seven” from British labor is not really about Brexit but it is about foreign agffairs, national security and foreign affairs especially Russia and Syria.
You’re making stuff up again….as you invariably do.
Confidential email
From Scott Morrison MP. Prime Minister and Cabinet
To : Peter Dutton MP. Minister for Border Protection
cc: Senator Mathias Cormann, Senator Michaelia Cash, Tim Wilson MP, Joe Hockey US Ambassador, Ann Sudmalis MP, Sussan Ley MP, f..kit, everyone
URGENT: WE NEED A BIGGER BOAT
Reply: Peter Dutton MP Minister for Border Protection
To: Scott Morrison Prime Minister
cc: Everyone who is getting caught with your heads in the trough; corruption, lying to Parliament senate select Committee hearings, the AFP, the Courts, the Media…
WE FOUND A BIGGER BOAT , BUT WE ARE ALREADY ON IT.
Steve777
Very true. They have definitely taken a leaf out of Trumps disgusting book
Greens Adam Bandt has said he supports a no confidence motion.
“The gov is now defying the will of the Parliament.
The conservatives are so bereft of humanity and respect for the rule of law that they have lost the right to govern.
I will support any ‘no confidence’ motion moved against this train wreck of a govt.
Kick this mob out.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/feb/19/no-idea-mathias-cormann-faces-questions-over-family-travel-politics-live?page=with:block-5c6b46c8e4b051cdac4ef88d#block-5c6b46c8e4b051cdac4ef88d
Cat
Fisherman’s Bend and re-zoning by Guy when Planning Minister in Victoria
In regards “Borders” and Christmas Island, surely the consideration is the medical supports provided to PEOPLE in need, whether that medical support be provided on Nauru or elsewhere where available, including in Australia also including Christmas Island given the government deploys that medical support to Christmas Island
It is the government which has introduced Christmas Island to the conversation – no one else
So why the carry on?
And Porter needs to loosen his underdaks. They are obviously too tight hence the squeaky voice
Tom Watson may just be trying for a last ditch effort to keep himself and another forty or so Labor MPs inside the Labor tent by nudging the Labor tent a little towards the Centre.
Given the utter contempt the ideologues have for the non-pure (examples even on the distant Bludger!), and given the sheer vitriol and viciousness of the as-expected vicious attacks on the Seven (who hold policy positions held by dozens of other extant Labor MPs), and given Corbyn’s general blancmange spinelessness on Remain/Brexit positions, I doubt that Watson will succeed.
Unless Corbyn unexpectedly has a spine insertion operation, and unless the far left ideologues unexpectedly learn that there is not a lot of point in being right AND utterly powerless for the next seven years, my prediction is that the sinking ship will emit more rats.
As I pointed out yesterday, these MPs feel as if the Party has left them.
I have been trying to think through what I would do were I a Labor MP in today’s HOC.
Would I wear the contempt of the extreme left ideologues as being a normal part and parcel of being a Labor MP who is not an extreme left ideologue?
Would I despair of Labor delivering either Remain or any sensible version of Leave?
Would I regard the Party’s steps to clean up its anti-semitism to be satisfactory?
Would I give tuppence for Corbyn’s ‘leadership’?
Given that the options are to put up with what I regard as a more or less totally unacceptable situation inside the Labor Party on the core issue for Britain today, would I nevertheless strengthen the extreme right ideological bastards by leaving the Labor Party?
Or would I retire, nestle in a warm, cosy croft in the Shetlands while the Atlantic Gales howl in the rafters, and declare ‘Fuck the lot of you!’
Wow even Joe Hockey was dumb enough to mix with helping out hello world:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ambassador-joe-hockey-helps-out-travel-firm-20190219-p50yux.html
Katter and CFMMEU
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/bob-katter-to-run-cfmeu-candidates-in-marginal-queensland-coal-seats-20190219-p50yss.html