BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

The one new poll for the week maintains the trend of incremental improvement for the Coalition.

First up, please note the threads below this one dealing with state politics in South Australia and New South Wales.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to inch in the Coalition’s direction with the addition of the Essential Research poll, the only one published this week. Whereas Labor finished 2018 with a lead of 54.4-45.6, the latest result has it at 53.1-46.9, which is a 0.4% shift compared with a week ago. However, this only makes one seat’s difference on the seat projection, with a projected gain for the Coalition in New South Wales. No new results for the leadership ratings this week.

Full results are available through the link below. There is a bit of bug here that often stops the state breakdowns from loading when you click on the tabs – I will get around to fixing this one day, but for the time being, it should work if you do a hard refresh.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,337 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

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  1. GG

    Bert is not suggesting Phelps will fold. He’s talking about Cathy McGowan (who rang me yesterday about the issue because I’ve been harrassing her about it on twitter…)

  5. Centennial Park has never been better in terms of its operation.

    It’s packed full of people who want to use it. The moonlights cinema is an excellent use of space.

    The domain has been ruined to a extent by letting people play touch football all over it when it’s wet As well as taking a week or more to dissemble the stage area once a pop concert has finished.

  6. Shellbell @ #400 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 4:49 pm

    Sydney football stadium was opened in January 1988.

    Asbestos products were no longer supplied in New South Wales after 1986 and up to then it was in asbestos pipes only

    What asbestos would’ve been used in the construction of the Sydney football stadium?

    I didn’t say it had been used in the construction of the stadium. I said maybe in the underground fill to prepare the site for construction.

  7. Phelps sure ain’t the folding type.

    You have to say, she’s been high profile. It will be very interesting to see how she polls, again against Sharma.

  8. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, February 9, 2019 at 4:40 pm
    As the late Bob Ellis, one of this country’s most lauded journalists, speechwriters, writers, playwrights and auteurs wrote in these pages, just a few years ago, the Right love to win by cheating. And so they do. And do usually win.
    ———————
    One of the great lies ever told is the old saying “cheats never prosper”. They usually do.

  11. Greensborough Growler says:
    Saturday, February 9, 2019 at 4:40 pm
    EB @ #386 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 4:33 pm
    Rubbish.

    Everything is under pinned by 25 plus years of growth.

    As soon as the recession hits, then all the paradigms of prosperity disappear.
    –

    Thank for your valid, well thought out critique that took all of 10 reactionary seconds and made no sense. It deserves the same 10 seconds of response. Done.

  12. Sceptic,
    My bad, not the construction materials for the stadiums. However, were there not plenty of old fibro houses in that area before the construction of the original stadium? What was done with them if/when they were knocked down? On the Central Coast here we have a problem with them just having been bulldozed under and built over, which massive storms are exposing again decades later. So I speculated that a similar outcome may occur if the stadium is knocked down as hastily as the NSW government want to do it and those remedial actions may not occur as comprehensively as they should do. Remember back then everyone believed that the fibro that post war houses were constructed out of was safe. Unlike Blue Asbestos.

  13. Peter Stanton
    says:
    Saturday, February 9, 2019 at 4:56 pm
    C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, February 9, 2019 at 4:40 pm
    As the late Bob Ellis, one of this country’s most lauded journalists, speechwriters, writers, playwrights and auteurs wrote in these pages, just a few years ago, the Right love to win by cheating. And so they do. And do usually win.
    ———————
    One of the great lies ever told is the old saying “cheats never prosper”. They usually do.
    _____________________________________
    Yeah, and look what Bob Ellis got away with:

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/jun/13/bob-ellis-what-do-you-do-when-a-literary-hero-is-accused-of-sexual-abuse

  16. Question:

    Thanks, worth watching again.

    Loved this: “They’re both equally bad is a stupid person’s idea of a smart thing to say. It’s a cheat when you’re really just too lazy to tell shit from shinola. It’s one step up from ‘I don’t vote’.”

    😆 😆

  19. Greensborough Growler says:
    Saturday, February 9, 2019 at 4:58 pm
    ItzaDream @ #407 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 4:56 pm

    Phelps sure ain’t the folding type.

    You have to say, she’s been high profile. It will be very interesting to see how she polls, again against Sharma.

    Sharma thinks the gouging self funded retirees are his friends.

    42 % of the Wentworth electorate are over 50’s compared to 48.1 % for the State and 49.1 % Nationally. That by-election put the lie to the notion that EVERYONE thinks first and only with their hit pocket nerve if you remember the ‘gouging’ of retirees was announced months before that by election. Sharma will have to do better than riding the coat tails of FIBERAL fabrication to beat her, which he probably will IMHO.

  20. Confessions @ #335 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 3:21 pm

    Funny, i find much the same thing with Ch7 & Ch9 in the morning – they seem to run almost the same story at the same time even down to ‘man bites dog’ stories. I am convinced they swap their story lists before going to air.

    When ABC24 started I started watching its breakfast news as it was a fresh relief from the facile commercial breakfast shows. But now I find it almost as facile as the Ch7 and Ch9 programs so don’t bother with TV in the morning.

    Have to agree with you there. I really want to know what is going on in the world (even just a summary) when i get up first thing in the morning – but – there may be something about the US (5 secs worth), UK/BREXIT (because it is currently boringly fascinating – another 5 seconds) then on to the sports, latest dieting fad and of course what the top five ‘celebrities’ are doing and maybe, just maybe, something about Australian politics.
    The rest of the world does not seem to exist at all!!

    So then it it downstairs to the basement and my trusty (?) browser to actually find out what is happening.
    What a world.

  21. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/we-could-be-fired-tomorrow-activists-demand-support-for-lgbti-teachers-20190209-p50wqu.html

    Armed with signs, and the occasional umbrella, a small group of activists braved Melbourne’s summer rain to demand Australian politicians end discrimination against LGBTI teachers.

    Labor’s bill to end discrimination against queer students in religious schools will face a parliamentary vote in Canberra this week. On Saturday, protesters called for the legislation to be passed, along with amendments to protect staff as well.

    “The homophobia and transphobia from some of the people who gave evidence to our [Senate inquiry] has been extraordinary and astounding,” Greens senator Janet Rice told the crowd.

  22. There are people of all ages, wealth, education and religion who do not think that the hip pocket nerve is the most important one in the body politic.

  23. poroti,
    If ScuMo could come up with the right form of words to cancel press conferences, he would. Government by press release would suit him just fine.

  24. 10 October 2018: https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-and-liberal-blocked-bid-to-end-schools-right-to-bar-gay-pupils-20181010-p508vk.html

    Labor and the Coalition joined forces to defeat a Greens bill two years ago that would have revoked the right of religious schools in Victoria to target students for being gay.

    The Greens sought in 2016 to strip Victoria’s Equal Opportunity Act of three exemptions that allow faith-based schools to discriminate against students based on their sex, sexual orientation, lawful sexual activity or gender identity.
    :::
    But the private member’s bill was voted down by the major parties, with Sex Party MP Fiona Patten the only MP willing to vote with the Greens in the upper house.

    The Andrews government opposed the bill while pursuing its own reforms to the state’s equal opportunity laws, which would have wound back the right of religious schools to turn teachers away due to their sexuality or gender.

    But Labor’s push also failed, by the narrowest of margins, with Liberal upper house president Bruce Atkinson using his casting vote to ensure the bill’s defeat.

    Victoria is one of several states with an Equal Opportunity Act that has exemptions for religious schools.

    I speculate Andrews will put up a Labor bill copying the Greens, and will do so in the lead-up to the next state election.

  26. Confessions
    says:
    Saturday, February 9, 2019 at 5:10 pm
    Question:
    Thanks, worth watching again.
    Loved this: “They’re both equally bad is a stupid person’s idea of a smart thing to say. It’s a cheat when you’re really just too lazy to tell shit from shinola. It’s one step up from ‘I don’t vote’.”

    I wish the Abbott voter’s had the “I don’t vote” option 🙂
    (Not really – compulsory voting is better – usually)

  27. ‘Victoria is one of several states with an Equal Opportunity Act that has exemptions for religious schools.’

    How many states are there again?

  28. It would be a scandal if those responsible for the construction of the SFS were using asbestos fill in the mid 1980s.

    Not sure where they would get it from.

  29. Pegasus

    Michael Kirby wrote a great article on this issue back in September. Reference below

    Source: Michael Kirby. Jury still out: Does Scott Morrison love gays? 30 September 2018. Sydney Morning Herald. https://www.smh.com.au/national/jury-still-out-does-scott-morrison-love-gays-20180930-p506x8.html

    After the Parliament had risen for the year, the Prime Minister announced on December 13th a proposal for a dedicated Religious Discrimination Act to the next election. The Prime Minister’s language when announcing this new policy was precise and targeted — he was keen to argue it was central to Australia’s multicultural identity. Mr Morrison pointed out that religious belief is higher among some migrant groups.

    “If you support a multicultural Australia, you’ll be a supporter of religious freedoms. You’ll understand that religious faith is synonymous with so many different ethnic cultures in Australia. Seventy per cent of Australians identify as having a particular religious belief. Much has been made of the fact that the 30 per cent of those who don’t has been growing. That’s a description of the diversity that exists in Australian society. If you look at some of our largest, our most long-established, as well as some of our most recent arrivals to Australia, the proportion of those in those communities expressing an identification with a religious belief is far higher.”

    He wants the Muslims in Reid and Banks and 14 Labor held seats to vote against Labor along with other electorates with a a strong religious faith presence.

    But he stuffed it up by kicking the debate into the post election long grass and upset those on both sides of the religious rights[discrimination] v LBGBTIQ+ students and teachers debate by making no decision on it ….calling for further ‘consultation’ not due to be completed until “the second half of next year”.
    After the election. Doh !!

  33. Earlwood it’ is interesting that you promote the idea of a Labor Party that is tolerant of a range of philosophies, when you you do not demonstrate this tolerance yourself. What a right wing spear carrier you are. Unlike you, I do not swallow and regurgitate the party line on demand. I have maintained my critical faculties and am not afraid to voice any concerns I might have with policies or leadership. You are a Kool Aid drinker, you are an unthinking hack. You are also a wannabe bully, insulting anyone who puts forward a line contrary to your own very limited right wing views. Fortunately I don’t care what you think. I have been dealing with self important, self aggrandizing wind bags such as yourself all my life. Go on tell us again about how you were on Gough’s Staff. You idiot!

  34. I always love people who don’t care what others think of them and posts about how they don’t care what someone thinks about them.

    Personally, when I don’t care what someone thinks of me, I don’t care enough to post about it.

  35. Confessions @ #431 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 5:51 pm

    I wish the Abbott voter’s had the “I don’t vote” option

    They kinda do. They can vote informal 🙂

    Plus they have two tories to choose from if so inclined.

    Abbott being turfed is my preference – he will still damage his party and himself from outside the parliament IMO.

    Above all it will shake him to his core.

    Good.

    Bloody good!

  36. The promised full Update on the Newspoll Guesses to date. (Apologies to the scroll wheels.)

    PB mean: ALP 54.2 to 45.8 LNP
    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 56

    ALP / LNP
    53 / 47 Al Pal
    52 / 48 Bennelong Lurker
    52 / 48 Bert
    56 / 44 bilko
    53 / 47 BK
    53.5 / 46.5 booleanbach
    54 / 46 bug1
    53 / 47 Clem Attlee
    52 / 48 Confessions
    99 / 1 Dan Gulberry
    55 / 45 Dog’s Breakfast
    51 / 49 Douglas and Milko
    53 / 47 electionblogger2019.simplesite.com
    53 / 47 Fozzie Logic
    53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
    54 / 46 Fulvio Sammut
    57 / 43 Gecko
    55 / 45 Goll
    56 / 44 grimace
    55 / 45 guytaur
    53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    52 / 48 Holden Hillbilly
    53 / 47 imacca
    52 / 48 It’s Time
    56 / 44 KayJay
    54 / 46 klasib
    53 / 47 Late Riser
    53 / 47 Margaret Kitchener
    54 / 46 Matt31
    52 / 48 Mavis Smith
    54 / 46 Mr Ed
    54 / 46 Onebobsworth
    54 / 46 Outside Left
    54 / 46 pica
    54 / 46 Player One
    54 / 46 poroti
    51 / 49 Prof. Higgins
    53 / 47 Puffytmd
    53 / 47 Quasar
    53 / 47 rhwombat
    51 / 49 Rossa
    52 / 48 SCOUT
    53 / 47 SilentMajority
    57 / 43 Sprocket_
    53 / 47 Socrates
    54 / 46 Sohar
    53 / 47 steve davis
    52 / 48 Steve777
    53 / 47 sustainable future
    54 / 46 The real Dave
    53 / 47 Tricot
    53 / 47 Upnorth
    53 / 47 Wayne
    53 / 47 Whisper
    53 / 47 Yabba
    52 / 48 Zoidlord

  37. Morrison claiming Shorten is playing politics on refugees. ….what makes me sad is that some within the general populous go for this

  38. zoomster @ #434 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 6:05 pm

    I always love people who don’t care what others think of them and post about how they don’t care what someone thinks about them.

    Personally, when I don’t care what someone thinks of me, I don’t care enough to post about it.

    This is one of those Biblical paradigms, isn’t it.

    David said, All men are liars.
    David was a man.
    Therefore, he’s a liar.
    So, he must be telling the truth.

  39. Late Riser,
    I have decided not to be a part of the Newspoll guessing game any more as I have found that it makes me concentrate on something that is only going to see me with an unnatural focus on it in the run-up. To the extent that, if I am wrong on the the downside and it comes in worse than I thought, then I get depressed, or, conversely, if it comes in higher than I guessed it would be I become depressed and think that it can only go one way next time. Down. So I wait, and I wonder.

    Yes, I know it sounds crazy, and likely it is, but I would rather just wait and see what it actually is when it turns up. And then react according to that.

    Nothing personal wrt your valiant efforts to herd the PB cats, of course.

    Cheers, 🙂

  41. zoomster @ #434 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 6:05 pm

    I always love people who don’t care what others think of them and posts about how they don’t care what someone thinks about them.

    Personally, when I don’t care what someone thinks of me, I don’t care enough to post about it.

    Good for you, zoomster! Such a forthright comment from someone who says they generally can’t be arsed commenting about whether other people comment about whether people comment about them! 😆

  44. C@tmomma, no worries. 🙂 Caring can get you in trouble. This Newspoll guessing is mostly a game and something I can contribute.

  48. Abbott being turfed is my preference – he will still damage his party and himself from outside the parliament IMO.

    Oh yes, just imagine a finally-freed free ranging Tone in those near-daily fireside chats on 2GB and Sky News where he can say whatever he likes and not have to deal with the trifling inconvenience of facing his fuming partyroom colleagues the next day.

    I’d love to see that!

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