BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

The one new poll for the week maintains the trend of incremental improvement for the Coalition.

First up, please note the threads below this one dealing with state politics in South Australia and New South Wales.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to inch in the Coalition’s direction with the addition of the Essential Research poll, the only one published this week. Whereas Labor finished 2018 with a lead of 54.4-45.6, the latest result has it at 53.1-46.9, which is a 0.4% shift compared with a week ago. However, this only makes one seat’s difference on the seat projection, with a projected gain for the Coalition in New South Wales. No new results for the leadership ratings this week.

Full results are available through the link below. There is a bit of bug here that often stops the state breakdowns from loading when you click on the tabs – I will get around to fixing this one day, but for the time being, it should work if you do a hard refresh.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,337 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

Comments Page 8 of 27
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  1. When Henry took the stand at the RC, he was belligerent, seemingly unaware that he was there to give evidence, not to be a smartarse. He thought that being a former top public servant, the questions asked by the counsel assisting were impertinent. He’s now wearing the opprobrium of Hayne, his reputation in tatters. For an ostensible very smart man, he’ll always be remembered as the chairman of a bank that acted at best unconscionably; at worse, criminally.

  2. C@tmomma @ #341 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 3:29 pm

    Itza,
    I was at a BBQ with Bob Carr and the various Central Coast MPs today at lunchtime and I was told that Gladys is doing that disingenuous political thing of making promises to electorates, but you’ll only get what she has promised you IF you return a Coalition Member to parliament!

    Also, as far as the Stadium Demolition is concerned, did you know that they are going ahead with it, even though there is likely to be asbestos, either from the stadium construction materials themselves, or from the fill used when the stadium was originally built, whose fibres will be put up into the air due to the rushed job they want to do!

    What a bunch of entitled crooks!

    And that’s putting it nicely C@t. Yes, I know, they are going ahead with ‘soft demolition’ – pulling out seating etc. Local councils and local groups have been / are looking at legal steps to block it on procedural bases – application and lodgement errors and omissions. The City with Clover have decided not to join and risk ratepayers monies as the crooks race to get it past some ‘threshold’ before the election. This is vested interests at work and of itself warrants a RC, imo.

    Bastards. 2 billion buckeroos or something, and something like 60,000 homeless. You know who wept.

  4. ItzaDream, My cynic says, if you can’t straight up abolish something you can always “have a merger” and reduce the original functions to almost zero. Same effect. No pain. No regrowth.

  6. …and the maintenance of the once beautiful Mrs Macquarie precinct has deteriorated to non existent in parts, with weeds knee high and verges once proudly trimmed now an unruly mess”

    I helped tidy up that area nearly 50 years ago while on Uni vacation working for the Department of Agriculture (which looked after the Domain and Botanical Gardens). Don’t tell me they let it run wild again.

  7. lizzie @ #353 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 3:47 pm

    ItzaDream

    That’s shocking. No respect for history or people. No understanding of the value of quiet green space.

    Oh lizzie, exactly. To them there is no value in a quiet green place. You know the old saying – they know the cost of everything and the value of nothing. Centennial Park up here was once a glorious quiet green space. Now it’s leased out endlessly (moonlight movies, movie set – Peter Rabbit 2 at the moment, sports, dance parties, rock concerts, marathons *) to ensure the Parklands are ‘independent of Govt funding’ – that semi-quote the result of a long and tense conversation I had with management which ended with me saying – ‘alright, I understand it now; this isn’t a public park anymore, it is your park and I can come and go at your unelected discretion’.

    * all of which have their place, but it is the overcrowding and the loss of the gentile amenity that matters. There is no stillness anymore.

  8. Hells bells, first thing on a Sunday morning!

    Christopher Pine on Insiders.

    Talk about chirpy sing song ways of speaking; not good for a hang over.

  9. Earth’s bugs outweigh humans 17 times over and are such a fundamental foundation of the food chain that scientists say a crash in insect numbers risks “ecological Armageddon”. When Lister’s study was published in October, one expert called the findings “hyper-alarming”.

    The Puerto Rico work is one of just a handful of studies assessing this vital issue, but those that do exist are deeply worrying. Flying insect numbers in Germany’s natural reserves have plunged 75% in just 25 years. The virtual disappearance of birds in an Australian eucalyptus forest was blamed on a lack of insects caused by drought and heat. Lister and his colleague Andrés García also found that insect numbers in a dry forest in Mexico had fallen 80% since the 1980s.

    “We are essentially destroying the very life support systems that allow us to sustain our existence on the planet, along with all the other life on the planet,” Lister said. “It is just horrifying to watch us decimate the natural world like this.”

    It was not insects that drew Lister to the Luquillo rainforest for the first time in the mid-1970s. “I was interested in competition among the anoles lizards,” he said. “They’re the most diverse group of vertebrates in the world and even by that time had become a paradigm for ecology and evolutionary studies.”

    The forest immediately captivated Lister, a lecturer at Rensselaer Polytechnic University in the US. “It was and still is the most beautiful forest I have ever been in. It’s almost enchanted. There’s the lush verdant forest and cascading waterfalls, and along the roadsides there are carpets of multicoloured flowers. It’s a phantasmagoric landscape.”

    It was important to measure insect numbers, as these are the lizards’ main food, but at the time he thought nothing more of it. Returning to the national park decades later, however, the difference was startling.

    “One of the things I noticed in the forest was a lack of butterflies,” he said. “They used to be all along the roadside, especially after the rain stopped, hundreds upon hundreds of them. But we couldn’t see one butterfly.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/15/insect-collapse-we-are-destroying-our-life-support-systems?CMP=share_btn_tw

  10. Nath @2.44pm

    Thank you for answering C@t’s question to me about who in addition to GG is the biggest bully here. Ms “Who me?” herself.

  11. ItzaDream

    I can’t quote refs, but I believe it has been proven that walking in wilderness, or similar, has great healing qualities. What a sad, neurotic world we have created.

  15. Steve777 @ #356 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 3:53 pm

    …and the maintenance of the once beautiful Mrs Macquarie precinct has deteriorated to non existent in parts, with weeds knee high and verges once proudly trimmed now an unruly mess”

    I helped tidy up that area nearly 50 years ago while on Uni vacation working for the Department of Agriculture (which looked after the Domain and Botanical Gardens). Don’t tell me they let it run wild again.

    Steve, good on you. Now, it’s patchy. Areas completely neglected. Areas roughly mown but not trimmed. I’ll put some pics up.

  19. Mavis Smith @ #351 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 2:46 pm

    When Henry took the stand at the RC, he was belligerent, seemingly unaware that he was there to give evidence, not to be a smartarse. He thought that being a former top public servant, the questions asked by the counsel assisting were impertinent. He’s now wearing the opprobrium of Hayne, his reputation in tatters. For an ostensible very smart man, he’ll always be remembered as the chairman of a bank that acted at best unconscionably; at worse, criminally.

    Probably a victim of being top dog in prestigious organisations for a long time. Ego gradually inflates until it is catastrophically deflated by an outsider. Still, he should be remembered more for his advice in the GFC.

  20. poroti says: Saturday, February 9, 2019 at 3:29 pm

    Confessions

    Ah those morning shows. I remember the first time i watched one.

    *******************************************************

    At least you are not in Victoria, Poroti and having to listen to the 2 CLOWNS that replaced Red Symons in the morning on the ABC radio…… and in this weeks green guide, someone made the comment that whoever made that decision hopefully does not make the decision on who to replace Jon Faine with when he packs it in at the end of this year …….

  21. Psyclaw,
    Like. I. Care. What you, nath, Pegasus or Rex Douglas think about me! Though at least, when pushed, Rex Douglas tries to debate substantively as opposed to whining about Labor bullies/stooges/hacks/partisans et bloody cetera!

  22. sprocket @ #342 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 2:31 pm

    Not sure if posted already, but the West Australian has a GetUp poll conducted by Ucomm on January 16, in Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce, showing 52 Lib 48 ALP from 674 respondents

    The accompanying story is along the lines of Porter can now put his feet up, cause he’s safe

    Well I hope he takes that advice. We all know how reliable single seat polling is.

  24. I think Pyne may well end up Opposition Leader. He should. He’s probably the smartest operator in the Liberal party room, especially since Cormann ‘blew up the government’.

  28. It’s Time:

    [‘Still, he should be remembered more for his advice in the GFC.’]

    Perhaps. But not many know of his carriage of the GFC -Kevin & Wayne taking credit for that. Whereas, many will recall his arrogance at the RC.

  29. My 2 cents worth on the Storer/Phelps medical bill and the way McGowan is likely to vote I tip she will vote in support of the government. Why? She’s a closet small l Liberal and from what I remember she seems to back them in most votes and secondly she isn’t standing at the next election so why would she give 2 stuffs what the electorate or anyone else thinks?

  30. poroti says: Saturday, February 9, 2019 at 4:24 pm

    phoenixRED
    At least you have ten months grace. Good luck after that

    **********************************************************************

    I liked this one Poroti :

  31. SM Not-a-Bot Retweeted
    emma hardy
    ‏@emahrdy
    6h6 hours ago

    my friend was arrested during a peaceful protest and had her belongings confiscated. police are now considering her stuff forfeited because “attempts to call” failed. what did they take? her phone…

  33. Bert @ #379 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 4:27 pm

    My 2 cents worth on the Storer/Phelps medical bill and the way McGowan is likely to vote I tip she will vote in support of the government. Why? She’s a closet small l Liberal and from what I remember she seems to back them in most votes and secondly she isn’t standing at the next election so why would she give 2 stuffs what the electorate or anyone else thinks?

    Nice for you to post.

    However, Phelps will be vitally interested in re-election. She’s made AS a pivotal issue. She’ll not fold on this issue comrade.

  34. “He’s probably the smartest operator in the Liberal party room”

    I see the current leader in the PB village idiot stakes is promoting a very low bar approach. 🙂

  36. On the Rudd thesis published here earlier

    Incremental change is something you can criticise when you are NOT in office. For example, I think Labor wants to shut down those bloody offshore detention centres and put the kybosh on the Adani mine but to make that happen you have to take the electorate with you.

    The time was right and the general mood of the electorate was right when we said YES to same sex marriage; not right when some of us pushed too hard too soon for a Republic, Not right when some of us pushed for constitutional changes regarding Indigenous Australians and ‘reconciliation’ or a ‘treaty’;

    Of course progressive reformers ARE impatient because of the damage done to people’s lives in the meantime, to the environment, to sentient beings at risk of extinction…..

    The political reality is that if Labor came straight out and said we don’t want more coal mines in Australia or we want no more off shore processing centres or no more coal based power input the grid the regressive right in the FIBS and NUTS would be all over that and win another election on lies, again. Remember Tampa ?

    Some call it selling out. I call it avoiding a much worse alternative, in this case a Peter Dutton Government in the future.

    I agree with Rudd that turning the clock back and re-framing politics in a into Proletariat V Bourgeoisie battle between workers and capitalists risks undoing the ‘consensus’ based approach of Keating and Hawke which drew in voters who don’t think of life or don’t want to think of life in worker v capitalist terms. This enabled them to introduce more leftist socially progress and environmentally friendly policy outside of the economy without scaring the horses away to the FIBS and the NUTS – for 13 years. There is a lesson in that.

  37. These are areas that once were proudly and impeccably maintained by RBG staff, but now outsourced after a merger to contain costs by a Govt with a couple of billion to replace functioning stadia.

    Jan 26, ready for Australia Day

    https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-pYEU-pjzUhI/XF5kIoZp-1I/AAAAAAAAGvk/taeFMSknHlU3l0Tg2qFZr6jodmypJm-0wCLcBGAs/s1600/fullsizeoutput_3338.jpeg

    Today. These are the steps to the pool. The bins up the top, next to the bus stop, used to be contained in a neat good looking wooden construction.

    I must say that the city areas and gardens under the control of City Council (Clover Moore) are simply stunning and world class.

  38. imacca
    says:
    Saturday, February 9, 2019 at 4:32 pm
    “He’s probably the smartest operator in the Liberal party room”
    I see the current leader in the PB village idiot stakes is promoting a very low bar approach.
    _______________________________________________
    Well it probably is a low bar acclamation but it doesn’t mean I am wrong does it. why don’t you ask your c@tmomma if you can go play in the park?

  39. poroti says: Saturday, February 9, 2019 at 4:29 pm

    phoenixRED

    And easily believable to be a ‘true story”.

    *************************************************************

    The only issue is how the POTUS spends 60% of his day in ‘executive time ‘ thus :

  40. C@tmomma:

    [‘Power can corrupt on both sides of the political fence. It’s manifestation can take various forms. This is one of them.’]

    No argument there, though Virginian Dems do appear to have a disproportionate hold on untoward behaviour. The three cited should resign, letting others rebuild the party in this troubled state – eg:

    https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/white-nationalist-matthew-heimbach-says-radical-left-to-blame-for-race-riot-death/news-story/455def6ba630d098dfa3f982c3abd532

  41. EB @ #386 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 4:33 pm

    On the Rudd thesis published here earlier

    Incre
    mental change is something you can criticise when you are NOT in office. For example, I think Labor wants to shut down those bloody offshore detention centres and put the kybosh on the Adani mine but to make that happen you have to take the electorate with you.

    The time was right and the general mood of the electorate was right when we said YES to same sex marriage; not right when some of us pushed too hard too soon for a Republic, Not right when some of us pushed for constitutional changes regarding Indigenous Australians and ‘reconciliation’ or a ‘treaty’;

    Of course progressive reformers ARE impatient because of the damage done to people’s lives in the meantime, to the environment, to sentient beings at risk of extinction…..

    The political reality is that if Labor came straight out and said we don’t want more coal mines in Australia or we want no more off shore processing centres or no more coal based power input the grid the regressive right in the FIBS and NUTS would be all over that and win another election on lies, again. Remember Tampa ?

    Some call it selling out. I call it avoiding a much worse alternative, in this case a Peter Dutton Government in the future.

    I agree with Rudd that turning the clock back and re-framing politics in a into Proletariat V Bourgeoisie battle between workers and capitalists risks undoing the ‘consensus’ based approach of Keating and Hawke which drew in voters who don’t think of life or don’t want to think of life in worker v capitalist terms. This enabled them to introduce more leftist socially progress and environmentally friendly policy outside of the economy without scaring the horses away to the FIBS and the NUTS – for 13 years. There is a lesson in that.

    Rubbish.

    Everything is under pinned by 25 plus years of growth.

    As soon as the recession hits, then all the paradigms of prosperity disappear.

  42. EB,
    This was the best blog of the week. Laid it out in black and white about the Coalition:

    The Government’s strategy to win the unwinnable election was laid out plainly this week, when Nine-Fairfax splashed a puff piece, saying ‘Morrison ready to fight dirty’.

    Just like Morrison was content to cheat and smear to get parachuted into his seat over Michael Towke, who beat him in the 2007 Cook preselection by the slim margin of 88 votes to 6, so will he conduct the next election.

    Barnaby Joyce expressed the strategy well, in a since deleted tweet this week:

    ‘There is no umpire in the political debate. There’s no rule book. What you get away with wins.’

    Bullying, lying, cheating, smearing — and that’s just what Barnaby did before the last New England by-election, as you would have read here on IA. What an example for the nation — and his children.

    As the late Bob Ellis, one of this country’s most lauded journalists, speechwriters, writers, playwrights and auteurs wrote in these pages, just a few years ago, the Right love to win by cheating. And so they do. And do usually win.

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/editorial-how-to-make-no-friends-and-influence-elections,12353

  45. Confessions
    says:
    Saturday, February 9, 2019 at 2:54 pm
    Bill Maher is pushing back against the idiots who say both major parties are just the same. “Just admit you don’t watch politics, haven’t for 20 years and have no clue what you’re talking about.”

    Yes, it translates quite well to OZ.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xtd4tds-I0U

    I also don’t think we a copying the brain dead movement, I think we were the trailblazers of ignoring science. It started when Abbott got elected on a platform of “because we’re grown-ups”.

  46. C@T
    I am no fan of Allianze stadium being demolished, mainly due to the shear waste. The faults of the stadium could be addressed with a refurbishment.

    There has not been any attempt at designing a refurbishment, the costings of one were cooked to support the case for a new stadium. The brief for the stadium was also exaggerate to support the new stadium .

    That said this quote is utter rubbish & pure fiction ……
    “Also, as far as the Stadium Demolition is concerned, did you know that they are going ahead with it, even though there is likely to be asbestos, either from the stadium construction materials themselves, or from the fill used when the stadium was originally built, whose fibres will be put up into the air due to the rushed job they want to do!”

    Any asbestos removal ( highly unlikely to be any) would be fully monitored & removed under the strictest conditions, the law is ultra strict on the matter. Do you really think the construction workers & companies involved would risk their own lives doing it improperly, for what possible reason ?

  48. Sydney football stadium was opened in January 1988.

    Asbestos products were no longer supplied in New South Wales after 1986 and up to then it was in asbestos pipes only

    What asbestos would’ve been used in the construction of the Sydney football stadium?

  49. Bert says:
    Saturday, February 9, 2019 at 4:27 pm
    My 2 cents worth on the Storer/Phelps medical bill and the way McGowan is likely to vote I tip she will vote in support of the government. Why? She’s a closet small l Liberal and from what I remember she seems to back them in most votes and secondly she isn’t standing at the next election so why would she give 2 stuffs what the electorate or anyone else thinks?
    ————————————–
    McGowan is more a closet big N National. Her campaign workers included a lot of National’s activists.

  50. Matt Whitaker roasted for going to Trump Hotel after testifying: ‘Picking up his bonus cash, no doubt’

    Acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker reportedly went to President Donald Trump’s Washington, DC hotel following his testimony in front of the House Judiciary Committee on Friday.

    News of Whitaker at Trump’s hotel was reported by Pulitzer Prize-winning New York Times journalist Maggie Haberman.

    The internet hilariously roasted Whitaker for paying such a tribute to his patron.

    Here is some of what people were saying:

    Matt Whitaker was hoping for a slap on the ass and an “Attaboy” from the Criminal-in-chief.

    who among us hasn’t downed a few emoluments after a long day

    Picking up his bonus cash no doubt.

    WOW. If there was any question about the level of corruption we’re dealing with here, I think we’ve answered it. No bottom is low enough.

    They don’t even try to hide corruption these days.

    It’s like a dumbed-down version of the Gambino family.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/matt-whitaker-roasted-going-trump-hotel-testifying-picking-bonus-cash-no-doubt/

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