BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

The one new poll for the week maintains the trend of incremental improvement for the Coalition.

First up, please note the threads below this one dealing with state politics in South Australia and New South Wales.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to inch in the Coalition’s direction with the addition of the Essential Research poll, the only one published this week. Whereas Labor finished 2018 with a lead of 54.4-45.6, the latest result has it at 53.1-46.9, which is a 0.4% shift compared with a week ago. However, this only makes one seat’s difference on the seat projection, with a projected gain for the Coalition in New South Wales. No new results for the leadership ratings this week.

Full results are available through the link below. There is a bit of bug here that often stops the state breakdowns from loading when you click on the tabs – I will get around to fixing this one day, but for the time being, it should work if you do a hard refresh.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,337 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

Comments Page 7 of 27
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  1. In this defacto election campaign before the real campaign begins, it is a good time for Rudd to STFU.

    Why oh why does he always shove his oar in when the ALP is fighting to win an election? He is a reminder to the voters of a time they would rather forget.

    Rudd, just go away.

  2. zoomster
    says:
    Saturday, February 9, 2019 at 2:42 pm
    nath
    lizzie didn’t call you vomit. She never would. She just said she doesn’t read your posts.
    ____________________________
    No but C@t did, and she is without doubt the most abusive poster on PB. But because she is a Labor supporter she is feted, or ignored, by all the other ALP supporters. Despite being an objectionable character of ill repute.

  3. https://mobile.twitter.com/AnthDeCeglie/status/1092014808147255296/photo/1
    Sorry if this link doesn’t work.

    DeCeglie took over as editor of The West Australian a few weeks ago and has quickly converted the paper into a LibsAreUs/New Idea/Daily Mail abomination. He was at The Daily Telegraph before.

    The comments under his twitter posts are largely scathing of the new direction which is pleasing.

    Maybe Rudd could broaden his media attack to include Kerry Stokes’ vanity project at The West.

  4. Confining people to certain areas on pain of deportation is a dangerous precedent to set. There is nothing in the constitution that I am aware of that says certain people can be confined to certain zones. When we did it to Aboriginal people it was wrong, harmful and against their rights. Why would it be any different for refugees or migrants?

    This government is drifting more fascist by the day.

  5. He was banned because he pushed back against the moderator.
    __________________________________

    I have no idea of the details but that is irrelevant to what I have to say.

    The ‘moderator’ is actually the ‘host’ when it come to PB. And, like a guest in anyone’s house, even a paying guest, you treat the host with respect. If you cannot agree with the host then you leave or get kicked out.

    As for Bemused, my understanding is that he has not sought to come back here (whether because he would feel on probation or for some other reason). Perhaps Lizzie knows more.

    Bottom line. We are all here on the sufferance of the host – which is why I never, ever join in calls for anyone to be banned – even those I think this site would be better off without – because it is simply not my call. We are all fellow lodgers with equal rights and obligations.

  6. For those that missed this last night, Bushfire Bill posted this link to Kohler in The Australian.
    https://outline.com/T8fxqr

    are we seeing the end of Friedmanism?

    which he describes as

    companies have absolutely no responsibility to society beyond their responsibility to make money

    which meant

    companies started defining their purpose purely as making money and building shareholders’ wealth, it didn’t matter how

    But due to the RC into the banks

    the industry fund sector is now cleaning up, with billions of dollars pouring into them from the hapless bank funds

    and

    Australia’s industry funds are about as far from Milton Friedman as it’s possible to be … governed by the most diverse group of directors in existence: people who mostly haven’t got a clue about investing, but who know a lot about culture and true purpose, and by the way a lot of them are women.

    Kohler asks that we watch this space.

  7. nath

    So you need to apologise for your slur on lizzie – something which is easy to do if it was unintended.

    As for the rest, give it up. You’re just sounding petulant.

  8. Bill Maher is pushing back against the idiots who say both major parties are just the same. “Just admit you don’t watch politics, haven’t for 20 years and have no clue what you’re talking about.”

    😆

  9. zoomster
    says:
    Saturday, February 9, 2019 at 2:53 pm
    nath
    So you need to apologise for your slur on lizzie – something which is easy to do if it was unintended.
    As for the rest, give it up. You’re just sounding petulant.
    ________________________________________
    If Lizzie is upset by being called a spear carrier then I apologize to her.

  10. TPOF

    We are all fellow lodgers with equal rights and obligations.

    Yess.

    GG

    Being on the internet means you never have to say sorry.

    To use a mealy-mouthed expression I hate: GG, You’re better than that.

  11. “Despite being an objectionable character of ill repute.”

    We know you are nath. Is it possible you can just give over on the whole talking about yourself?

  12. Nice summary.

    Josh Bornstein

    @JoshBBornstein
    2h2 hours ago

    Saturday:
    Sheridan: Trump address brilliant
    Kelly: Shorten will lose election on immigration
    Kenny: @TheAusInstitute unpatriotic for campaign on renewables
    Lloyd: EnvironmentAl Court ruling a disgrace
    Sloan: WGAF

  13. Kate

    The impression I get from the West Australian in recent times is that it has become indistinguishable in style from the Daily Telegraph. It’s almost as if Kerry and Rupert did a revenue for content swap when the Sunday Times changed hands last year. Kerry likes the additional income, where Rupert is keener on sharing his influence with a wider audience in WA from Monday to Saturday. Poor us!

  14. Kate @ #304 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 2:44 pm

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AnthDeCeglie/status/1092014808147255296/photo/1
    Sorry if this link doesn’t work.

    DeCeglie took over as editor of The West Australian a few weeks ago and has quickly converted the paper into a LibsAreUs/New Idea/Daily Mail abomination. He was at The Daily Telegraph before.

    The comments under his twitter posts are largely scathing of the new direction which is pleasing.

    Maybe Rudd could broaden his media attack to include Kerry Stokes’ vanity project at The West.

    Ah, so that’s why Shane Wright took off!

  15. Obviously our bank execs need a one-on-one with Razak and Jho Low if they want to join the big boys:
    At least half-a-dozen criminal investigations into the misappropriation of billions of dollars from 1MDB are currently under way around the world and charges are being laid not only against the alleged conspirators, but also against executives from global financial institutions.
    https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/101east/2019/02/malaysia-world-biggest-heist-190206094204679.html

  16. He reads PollBludger ?

    The same ridiculous claims that Greens here make about Labor and Liberal are used in the US to assert the Democrats and Republicans are both the same. New Rules just hilariously destroyed that myth.

  17. Ringo Juggernaut @ #324 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 3:11 pm

    Kate

    The impression I get from the West Australian in recent times is that it has become indistinguishable in style from the Daily Telegraph. It’s almost as if Kerry and Rupert did a revenue for content swap when the Sunday Times changed hands last year. Kerry likes the additional income, where Rupert is keener on sharing his influence with a wider audience in WA from Monday to Saturday. Poor us!

    Funny, i find much the same thing with Ch7 & Ch9 in the morning – they seem to run almost the same story at the same time even down to ‘man bites dog’ stories. I am convinced they swap their story lists before going to air.

  18. So they throw the substitute on, plant him at silly point, and the profound sledging and abuse begins, disingenuous in the extreme, the OCD manifests itself immediately, a complete deadshit.
    It’s been so since you planted your convoluted entrails on a PB pew and gushed with ill discipline and deceit.
    You add nothing to honest dialogue and molest the concept of civil society.

  19. Heath is another area opening up where cack-handed Gladys and her team of privateers are looking increasingly wanting.

    1. Here is the slow burn outcome of a merger of administrative units between the paediatric cardiac units of Children’s Hospital Randwick and Westmead: a turf war and the resignation of the director of paediatric cardiac services at Randwick with a Medical Staff Council vote of no confidence in the administration’s capacity to ensure a viable paediatric cardiac surgical service at Randwick.

    This sort of unrest effects a lot of voters – staff and patients – in a very emotional area, critical child care.

    The Govt has promised a review, something always low on the reassurance index, if not the lowest. Labor has promised to restore the Randwick unit (Daley’s own turf).

    For those not familiar, the two hospitals are at completely opposite sides of the city.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/cardiac-services-boss-resigns-amid-war-between-sydney-s-children-s-hospitals-20190208-p50wia.html

    2. Meanwhile, Labor gazumped the Govt by a week with a $700 million proposed build in the far north west of the city with Minister Hazzard (an unfortunate name) then popping up a week later, in a paddock next to a sky train bridge with no train on it, with a picture of a $300 million building.

    3. Worthy of note is that Labor’s opposition health counterpart is Walt Secord, a ‘seasoned operator’, having worked with Carr, Rudd and Keneally (chief of staff).

    4. More meanwhile, up the coast at Tweed, the National’s bloke turned out to announce a brand new hospital (who knows, that might actually depend on being returned, like Glady’s cack-handed conditional promise of 25 mill for a Dubbo sports centre – did I mention Gladys is cack-handed?) only to find a vocal group of locals waiting for him not wanting a new hospital at all, and certainly not where he wants to put it.

    4. More more meanwhile, there’s the Northern Beaches PPP hospital (surrounded by horrendous road works rivalled only by the refashioning of whole suburbs by WestConnex and its offspring) which got off to a disastrous start with major resignations of admin and medical staff amid serious allegations of cack-handedness in clinical care provisions, which sort of puts voters off.

    Hazzard (unfortunate name) has been vociferously defending the situation as a mild hiccough and all is so wonderful he even risks his family being admitted, while also admitting the Govt will be shying away from any more PPP’s, at least in health.

    Read allaboutit:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/it-s-got-nasty-nsw-election-battle-over-health-and-hospitals-heats-up-20190205-p50vsg.html

  20. Bemused became like the bully that thought he was Teflon-coated. He thought he could abuse anyone, any time, create memes about the women posters here and stalk their every post, day in, day out, and have a go at them as the ‘Sisterhood’ and various other derogatory epithets without sanction.

    When he was asked to stop doing it he just doubled down. Mr Bowe finally had a go at him one time when he was especially nasty to someone. So he had a go back at Mr Bowe, virtually daring him to act against him, as he was one of those people who thought the blog couldn’t survive without his contributions. So Mr Bowe acted. 🙂

  21. Funny, i find much the same thing with Ch7 & Ch9 in the morning – they seem to run almost the same story at the same time even down to ‘man bites dog’ stories. I am convinced they swap their story lists before going to air.

    When ABC24 started I started watching its breakfast news as it was a fresh relief from the facile commercial breakfast shows. But now I find it almost as facile as the Ch7 and Ch9 programs so don’t bother with TV in the morning.

  22. Nath
    ” are we seeing the end of Friedmanism?

    which he describes as

    companies have absolutely no responsibility to society beyond their responsibility to make money”

    I think Friedman actually said the purpose of a firm is to make a profit (OK) and the fiduciary duty of directors to shareholders to this end trumps any moral considerations (nonsense). He also argued markets could solve almost everything (false). Fama went on to say deregulated markets could solve almost anything (downright stupid).

    Friedman was a great economist but a lousy moral philosopher. His famous dictum on the purpose of firms was logically false, since fiduciary duties were themselves a form of moral consideration, and therefore could not be used as a reason to ignore other moral considerations. But it was a popular falsehood because it allowed a generation of aggressive business leaders to justify their sociopathy.

    The banking saga has also shown the folly of making such people leaders of your firm. If you hire and incentivise business managers to lie, cheat and steal to make more money for your firm, sooner or later those individuals will have no compunction lying, cheating and stealing from you (the shareholders) as well. You have pre-selected as leaders the people most likely to rip off you, the business owner.

    We need to develop a new generation of business leaders who think long term, and build organisations and products that will increase in value in the long term. This usually requires investment and training, not a focus on a six month reporting cycle. Of course, we also need to teach and remind share investors that if you only invest in shares that give the highest short term profit, you are going to get burnt, and you deserve to be.

  23. Confessions

    Ah those morning shows. I remember the first time i watched one. At a hospital waiting area so part of a captive audience. I’d heard of the ‘big names’ and all the ra ra but never watched before. My god, every minute watching I could feel my IQ going down. Yet these people earn megabucks !! It was depressing to think how many millions of ‘avid fans’ there are out there for such pulp. 🙁

  24. Itza,
    I was at a BBQ with Bob Carr and the various Central Coast MPs today at lunchtime and I was told that Gladys is doing that disingenuous political thing of making promises to electorates, but you’ll only get what she has promised you IF you return a Coalition Member to parliament!

    Also, as far as the Stadium Demolition is concerned, did you know that they are going ahead with it, even though there is likely to be asbestos, either from the stadium construction materials themselves, or from the fill used when the stadium was originally built, whose fibres will be put up into the air due to the rushed job they want to do!

    What a bunch of entitled crooks!

  25. Not sure if posted already, but the West Australian has a GetUp poll conducted by Ucomm on January 16, in Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce, showing 52 Lib 48 ALP from 674 respondents

    The accompanying story is along the lines of Porter can now put his feet up, cause he’s safe

  26. Speaking of mergers, cost efficiencies, and declining services, I swim at the Andrew Boy Charlton pool at Woolloomooloo. It is a peak tourist part of town, hordes of Chinese tumbling out of buses, gawking, as well they should.

    The whole precinct was under the management of the Royal Botanic Gardens. There are lovely rolling hills and rocky outcrops with gums, banksias, native grasses, and the like, and some worthy art installations.

    A few years ago, the Govt, on another efficiency binge, gave control of the RBG to Centennial Parklands who manage Centennial Park and Moore Park. I have little time for the Centennial mob, but that’s another story.

    The merger saw RBG jobs being outsourced, and the maintenance of the once beautiful Mrs Macquarie precinct has deteriorated to non existent in parts, with weeds knee high and verges once proudly trimmed now an unruly mess. If I talk to staff, they say they know, can’t do anything, and refer it back to ‘the merger’ and ‘budget cuts’. I rang the RBG and asked to be put through to the maintenance department. There isn’t one!

    Knee high weeds are a good metaphor for this Govt.

    (I have photos)

  27. poroti:

    I have to admit I was surprised finding that clip from one of those commercial breakfast shows where one of the hosts was actively pushing back on Morrison and his untruths about debt, Labor’s response to the GFC and taxes. I think at one point he actually said to him straight out he wasn’t telling the truth!

  28. John Paynter
    @Johnboy_P
    Feb 7

    Yesterday I looked at a man sitting in his new BMW in the only remaining disabled spot in a car park. He saw me looking and jumped out of his car shouting angrily that was moving soon. So tired of the entitled rich. Why are they always angry? #UNIONTHUG

    Guilt at being caught?

Comments Page 7 of 27
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