The Guardian reports the first result from Essential Research in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 last time. The changes on the primary vote are slight, with the Coalition up a point to 38% and Labor steady on 36% (CORRECTION: the Coalition is steady, and Labor down two). The Guardian report notes that Essential has changed the provider of the online panel from which its respondents are drawn from YourSource to Qualtrics, without changing the underlying methodology. Perhaps relatedly, the sample size is identified as 1652, where in the past it has been a little over 1000. The Guardian provides no further findings from attitudinal questions – we’ll see if the release of the main report later today provides anything on that front, along with the minor party primary votes.
UPDATE: Full report here. No change for the minor parties, with the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 7%. The poll was conducted between January 23 and January 31 – I’m not sure if this was a contingency for the long weekend, but in the past Essential’s field work dates have been Thursday to Sunday. Other findings:
• When presented with a number of explanations for a lack of gender parity in politics, the most favoured responses relate to the failures of political parties, and the least favoured relates to “experience and skills”. Gender quotas for parties have 46% support and 40% opposition, with age interestingly more determinative of attitudes here than gender.
• There are a number of questions on Australia Day, the most useful of which is a finding that 52% support a separate national day to recognise indigenous Australians, including 15% who want that day to replace Australia Day, with 40% opposed.
• Respondents were presented with various groups and asked who they felt they would prefer to see win the election. The most interesting findings are that the media was perceived as favouring the Coalition by 32% and 25%; that despite all the recent talk, pensioners were perceived to favour Labor by a margin of 42% to 28%; and that families with young children were perceived as favouring Labor by 50% to 21%.
UPDATE 2: It turns out that both the longer field work period and the larger sample were a one-off, to it will be back to Thursday to Sunday and samples of a bit over 1000 in future polls.
GG
Barnyard dropping his pants and dropping internal polling to the Smear are both abominations!
Steve777 @ #2097 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 9:18 pm
A very facile analysis. All politics is local.
They win enough support in the seats they purport to represent.
Ken Henry has likely besmirched his impeccable credentials after he left the APS by being appointed to the NAB board. Not just tarred by association or a noddy board member who just went with the flow, but the chairperson no less.
Thank you, Vogon. I’d forgotten that Whittaker has taken his talents to SkyFoxNews
If only.
Honest Government Ad | The ABC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=7&v=Pa8rSc2dung
Prof. Higgins @ #1980 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 5:52 pm
Murphy is not very bright.
sprocket_ @ #2100 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 9:20 pm
1. Costigan who was allegedly prepared to challenge Christennsen has a smear campaign.
2. Polling today saying McCormack is invisible and the Nats are fucked.
Tell me this is not an internal stitch up!
Newspoll 53-47 (sigh, it should be higher for the ALP).
Newspoll 53/47. The polls are probably bouncing about the real result (within the MOE ~2%) of 53/47 i.e from 55/45 to 51/49
Greensborough Growler @ #2107 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 8:24 pm
Whoopee! We’re gonna have Barnaby back as Deputy PM before the election. That should really tank the coalition vote!
INB4 arrogant elitist lefties criticise aussie voters who may have a voting view different to them.
48 Coalition 52 ALP 2PP.
Ken Henry had to appear downtrodden and contrite with Sales tonight.
What else was he supposed to do, it’s PR 101 stuff. Doesn’t excuse his smug performance at the RC, which is why he had to go.
As for Scott Buttholes or whatever his name is, according to Sam Maiden it happened before the Darwin Cup and was essentially a group hug gone wrong.
I told youse Julie would stay.
53-47 etched in stone
ajm @ #2109 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 9:29 pm
I’m excited!
Greensborough Growler @ #2130 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 9:21 pm
Not in NSW west of the sandstone curtain they don’t any more (the sheep shaggers and cattle duffers of New England excepted – sorry Don). Gone with the Cod. Forget the machetes – they’ve got new combine harvesters Arrrgh!
Steve777 says:
Thursday, February 7, 2019 at 8:53 pm
“For NAB to redeem themselves, they will need to reintroduce the free pens and find a supplier who provides a quality product.”
It’s been ages since I’ve actually been inside a bank.
Bank branches serve a very important social service.
When I cleaned out my FIL’s house, I came across a pile of bank passbooks 3 foot high. I checked the most recent to see if there was any value in the accounts and noticed smallish amounts being deposited/withdrawn amongst the various bank branches just down the street in the local shopping centre.
You could work out he had walked down the street regularly with the most current books, entered a branch and withdrew money, wander a little further and deposit the same money into another account or two at the other banks’ branches.
For the poor bugger, it was the only time he could have a chat to anyone (teller) for a little social interaction.
SilentMajority @ #2113 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 8:31 pm
She could end up leader of one of the parties that emerges from the wreckage. Should be good for a bit of extra salary and a travel budget.
The Nationals fall below the threshold which ever way you measure them
SilentMajority @ #2113 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 6:31 pm
Yep I didn’t think she’d go either. She doesn’t want to give Christian Porter an easy out of his troubles in Pearce and wants a woman to succeed her.
rhwombat @ #2114 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 9:32 pm
Obviously, it rained!
Has an unhinged Scomo hit a new low ?
As the battle escalates ahead of next week’s vote on legislation to facilitate medical transfers from Manus and Nauru, Scott Morrison was playing up the dangers if the bill passes while downplaying the political implications. Morrison declared the amendments, based on a proposal from independent Kerryn Phelps, would leave the government powerless to stop the entry of a paedophile, rapist or murderer-
“It doesn’t provide for the usual arrangements which would enable us to reject someone coming to Australia because they have a criminal history. They may be a paedophile, they may be a rapist, they may be a murderer and this bill would mean that we would just have to take them”.
Replying to Morrison, Dr. Kerryn Phelps said:
“The large majority of people on Manus Island and Nauru have been assessed as genuine refugees. Under the Refugee Convention, they cannot be granted that status if they have committed a serious crime, a hate crime or a war crime in their country of origin.”
Morrison also raised the spectre of
“hundreds upon hundreds upon hundreds of single males being transferred … at the directive of doctors, not the government. This will mean we will have to reopen detention centres that we closed, like Christmas Island.”
So here we get the perception that the Phelps bill would bring 100’s of foreign male criminals on to our streets, raping our women, murdering our neighbours, doing unspeakable things to our children.
This is the most disgusting, immoral, deceptive and deplorable PM I have encountered in 40 years watching the political dance in Australia. I am ashamed he is our PM, however short a time he survives. OMG !!
Rant complete.
I love the smell of Nats being kicked out.
The Good for nothing corrupted.
“are increasingly worried about holding down a job and cost of living”
Hence the RBA will downgrade GDP and inflation forecasts
The impact on inflation will pressure any wages growth so the anticipation that wages growth will recover will not be a given (noting the RBA commentary)
The AUD will come under further pressure
And there is now every possibility the next interest rate movement will be down for the reasons covered at the Press Club yesterday, further pressuring the currency
With this current Federal “government” we are really running around and around the inside walls of a bucket heading to the bottom
A sideshow act by a sideshow, dysfunctional “government”
It is akin to a business under pressure so reducing inventories, reducing points of representation and reducing staff in search of a profitable business model
The stench is death and where your first loss is your best loss
In a doctor’s surgery we were discussing Morrison shortly after he made PM. I said words to the effect that Morrison was a blustering blowhard. “No”‘ she said, “he’s evil”. I ‘ve since come to conclude my doctor’s diagnosis was correct.
Crikey ! Bronnie agreeing with a couple of Bludgers re banks. Just said on Sky that the ‘collapse from 6 down to 4′ was “A monumental error’
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/nab-s-golden-handshakes-blasted-as-shorten-pushes-for-rapid-change-20190207-p50wep.html?fbclid=IwAR0cCnhxXUi88flaNJrbCKj5DYR_HoUdt03Xotf4IfdA-dzuk9-s5JwcJyk
For the Anti-Shorten crowd.
Not only that, but according to PvO on the Project many have been assessed by the Department’s own doctors, recommended for medical treatment, but have been waiting, in some cases over 2 years and still no medical treatment.
https://twitter.com/theprojecttv/status/1093435320580767744
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onWf4_yl-pY
PuffyTMD @ #2089 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 9:09 pm
I am too embarrassed to tell you what my original “footprint” was when I lived and worked in Sydney up to about 5 years ago. Let’s just say they were well above the average 🙁
But I can happily report that my current footprint – and that of my partner – have been reduced to around 25% of that value over the last 5 years, thanks to various lifestyle changes that Zoomster seems to think are useless 🙂
“A very facile analysis. All politics is local.
They win enough support in the seats they purport to represent.”
As a geographically concentrated minority, they have influence and power out of all proportion to their support, let alone their collective brainpower. I’m a believer in Proportional Representation or MMP.
Explain this to me, if anyone can, please.
Meoldema got approved for a Level 3 Aged Care Package so she can have home support.
Rounded, the package delivers $38,000 of funds to the provider for her.
This will get my Mother somewhere between 7 to 10 hours of general home support (no nursing) per week. The package gets charged about $50 ph for a worker to come out.
Let’s be generous and say Meoldema gets 10 hours a week instead of seven.
That is 520 hours per annum. (One of the calculators worked it out at 440 hours per year but as I said, let’s be generous.)
So that means each hour of support costs the package $74 (rounded up).
A workers can expect about $26 per hour 7am t0 7pm weekdays. I know this for a fact in one case, although other places may have different agreements. (It is not going to be much different anywhere else though.)
Or another way, the provider takes 11% for administration and another 20 to 22% for co-ordination fees. Then they take more fees until it is 70%. Yes, seventy percent in fees. And mind you this is a self managed package. We ring for the workers and sort out times and take on the role of connecting Meoldema with the services she needs. No one comes out to check on her. That is a managed package and costs more!
The bottom of one of the schedules (Anglicare) clearly says there is 30%percent of the package left for client services. And they are all about the same. Anglicare is one of the cheaper ones btw. in they do not charge to take your phone calls as I understand some do.
But of that 30%, remember half of that will be kept by the agency as contract fees for workers, as the workers get only half the money left in the package, in their hand. So is does that mean Meoldema is getting half a scrape of a pittance out of the 38 grand (15%) which is supposed to be helping her but seems to be helping everyone else into a job?
Now the profit from this if ones goes with a charity might help some other people in different programs, who knows?
But when does 10 or 8, or 7 hours of low wage work cost $38,000 a year?
#paintMeGreenAndCallMeNewbie
Or another way,
Zoidlord
They have a flag for that.
This is awesme!
Steve777 @ #2129 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 9:57 pm
Dream on.
Player One @ #2128 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 9:56 pm
Do we get steak knives with this spiel?
Greensborough Growler @ #2135 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 10:03 pm
Only if you promise to use them to eat lentils! 🙂
Player One @ #2135 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 10:04 pm
Which Greens faction are they?
And that’s being generous!
Greensborough Growler @ #2137 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 10:07 pm
Please! We only eat red lentils in this household!
During the last drought we were asked to reduce our water consumption footprint. We managed to reduce our water use from 600 litres a day to 300. While driving past he new housing estates at the edge of the city, I realised that 300 litres would be used up by the occupants of just one house.
Next year we dropped our consumption by another 30 litres per day. It would now take 10 houses to do the same to supply water to a new house.
I realised, no matter how much you reduce your footprint, it is useless if you have a rising population.
Greensborough Growler @ #2135 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 9:33 pm
Only if they are second hand.
Newspoll 53 ALP 37 Coalition 10 Lib/Women/Indy’s please
Don’t anyone, and I mean ANYONE, try to feed me a lentil burger. Burgers are made out of things which had a pulse, and I do no mean a bean.
P!,
Oh dear.
You mean there are Greens and Reds lentils
How can you possibly tell the difference on PB?
PeeBee
That is a poignant story about your father-in-law. I remember talking to a suburban GP years ago who still did home visits.
They said that every elderly patient or couple had a cup of tea and biscuits or cakes ready for them. The GP would stop for maybe one of these – they said if they had stopped every time they would never have got all their day’s work done. But they did feel that they were very possibly just about the only visitor many of these people got.
Greensborough Growler @ #2144 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 10:14 pm
There are yellow lentils as well. I suspect they are the most common here on PB 🙂
Good lord, is P1 still going?
Got to give it to them, they know how to seethe.
PeeBee @ #2140 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 10:09 pm
Yup. Hence why having a global warming policy is completely meaningless in the absence of a population policy 🙁
zoomster @ #2147 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 10:19 pm
Figured out your carbon footprint yet, Z?
Rocket Rocket says:
Thursday, February 7, 2019 at 10:15 pm
They said that every elderly patient or couple had a cup of tea and biscuits or cakes ready for them. The GP would stop for maybe one of these – they said if they had stopped every time they would never have got all their day’s work done. But they did feel that they were very possibly just about the only visitor many of these people got.”
I calculated that in my PIL’s last two years in the house, we were the only people who visited them.