Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

More evidence of a narrowing trend federally from Essential Research, albeit based on small shifts in the primary vote.

The Guardian reports the first result from Essential Research in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 last time. The changes on the primary vote are slight, with the Coalition up a point to 38% and Labor steady on 36% (CORRECTION: the Coalition is steady, and Labor down two). The Guardian report notes that Essential has changed the provider of the online panel from which its respondents are drawn from YourSource to Qualtrics, without changing the underlying methodology. Perhaps relatedly, the sample size is identified as 1652, where in the past it has been a little over 1000. The Guardian provides no further findings from attitudinal questions – we’ll see if the release of the main report later today provides anything on that front, along with the minor party primary votes.

UPDATE: Full report here. No change for the minor parties, with the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 7%. The poll was conducted between January 23 and January 31 – I’m not sure if this was a contingency for the long weekend, but in the past Essential’s field work dates have been Thursday to Sunday. Other findings:

• When presented with a number of explanations for a lack of gender parity in politics, the most favoured responses relate to the failures of political parties, and the least favoured relates to “experience and skills”. Gender quotas for parties have 46% support and 40% opposition, with age interestingly more determinative of attitudes here than gender.

• There are a number of questions on Australia Day, the most useful of which is a finding that 52% support a separate national day to recognise indigenous Australians, including 15% who want that day to replace Australia Day, with 40% opposed.

• Respondents were presented with various groups and asked who they felt they would prefer to see win the election. The most interesting findings are that the media was perceived as favouring the Coalition by 32% and 25%; that despite all the recent talk, pensioners were perceived to favour Labor by a margin of 42% to 28%; and that families with young children were perceived as favouring Labor by 50% to 21%.

UPDATE 2: It turns out that both the longer field work period and the larger sample were a one-off, to it will be back to Thursday to Sunday and samples of a bit over 1000 in future polls.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,781 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  5. PeeBee

    I think The UK Guardian ran a series of articles a year or so ago about what had been dubbed an ‘epidemic of loneliness’ in the U.K., especially among the elderly. And it is associated with worse health outcomes.

    Always paradoxical that you can have near zero social interaction in a city of millions.

    Contrast that to what I saw on tv news yesterday with the whole community of Pooncarie in Western NSW (population ?150) celebrating the reopening of their Primary School with seven pupils.

  8. If Bishop is staying, will a Liberal announce their retirement tomorrow or over the weekend?
    With Parliament sitting next week, if others are planning on retiring I expect they would announce soon.

  13. Poroti and Windover from earlier,

    Regarding Adani, you cannot say there would be no jobs. But the job numbers have been greatly exaggerated. For the same money on other projects more jobs could be created. And no, there will be no jobs without government funding because it still is not economic. If the government has any spare cash it ought to go into repairs, flood mitigation and agriculture support projects in that region. Rookwood(?) weir would be a good example.

  21. Aside from the Mueller investigation, Trump is facing hearings and subpoenas from New York, about campaign funds. They are following the money.

  23. I don’t get Liberal voters… never have, never will. When all is said and done they’re just selfish greedy fukkas who care about nobody but themselves.
    Just sayin’

  24. Can I just say congratulations to the Victorians for holding the Victorian Golf Open competition with men and women playing together and for equal prize money.

  29. Earlier in the day I linked to: https://johnmenadue.com/hugh-mackay-a-culture-of-compassion-edited-extract-of-australia-day-address/

    Hugh Mackay. A Culture of Compassion (Edited extract of Australia Day Address)

    “When social cohesion is threatened, the consequences are likely to be serious for us. Just a few weeks ago, the Australian Psychological Society and Swinburne University of Technology released The Australian Loneliness Report, revealing that one in four Australians report feeling lonely for at least half of every week; that loneliness is a greater problem for young adults than older people; that lonely Australians have significantly worse physical and mental health than those who are more socially connected.
    :::
    Given all this, it’s hardly surprising that social isolation is now emerging as a greater potential threat to public health than obesity is.”

    Full report cited: https://psychweek.org.au/loneliness-study/

  35. Golf has had simultaneous Mens and Womens Tournaments before. Sometimes over the full 36 holes at Royal Melbourne. However, the equal prize money and simultaneous tournament format goes where it should go.

    One of these days some bright sports promoter will think “We can potentially massively increase the participation, advertising and viewership of our sport if we can make a decent effort of things with half the population!”

    There was one Womens big bash game at night (in Perth) this year on TV. You will know that cricket has got its stuff worked out when Womens matches are played during Prime Time slots and are broadcast live.

    The same goes for pretty much every other sport.

  36. Here in Thailand, the cohesion of family rules the roost. It is the most important aspect of their lives. Childhood friends and connected villagers included. The aged are respected and cared for… children are watched over as if they’re yours… nobody is left ‘alone’.
    It is perhaps the most admiral part of Thai culture.

  37. Gecko @ #2186 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 11:08 pm

    Here in Thailand, the cohesion of family rules the roost. It is the most important aspect of their lives. Childhood friends and connected villagers included. The aged are respected and cared for… children are watched over as if they’re yours… nobody is left ‘alone’.
    It is perhaps the most admiral part of Thai culture.

    this also applies to (us) continental Europeans…

  38. Gecko @ #2186 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 11:08 pm

    Here in Thailand, the cohesion of family rules the roost. It is the most important aspect of their lives. Childhood friends and connected villagers included. The aged are respected and cared for… children are watched over as if they’re yours… nobody is left ‘alone’.
    It is perhaps the most admiral part of Thai culture.

    So, why won’t they release Hakim?

  41. GG
    No idea. Read on PB the other day that Oz authorities were partly responsible because they took too long to respond … hence court proceedings were initiated which now have to be seen through. Something like that if I recall correctly.

  42. Gecko @ #2191 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 11:15 pm

    GG
    No idea. Read on PB the other day that Oz authorities were partly responsible because they took too long to respond … hence court proceedings were initiated which now have to be seen through. Something like that if I recall correctly.

    Lots of PR BS imho.

    Send Hakim home to Australia.

    He’s one of ours.

  43. The down side of cohesive families where belonging is important above all else, is the intolerance of difference and rigidity of roles. An extreme example would be a the Amish or a traditional Saudi family structure. There are good and not-so-good aspects. Less loneliness but less choice. There is no right answer, no good blueprint.
    Our modern capitalist society depends on a disconnected, flexible, dynamic workforce who will put work before family, where the role of worker is stronger than any other.

    What is better? That is a discussion.

  45. GG
    But but but… his name is Hakim, not George!

    This is Ubertubersteffenfuhrer at play. The same whose minions trawl flights to Australia for Saudi women travelling without a male oppressor, so these fleeing women can be sent back to be honour-killed.

    It is like intercepting a woman half way to the Women’s Shelter and having the cops restrain her by duct taping (yeah, for real) to a wheelchair and dropping her back in the lounge room of her violent partner who is sharpening a knife to cut her throat.

    But hey, she’s brown, trying to run away from her home, and we like the bloke. Besides, he owns her.

  47. Update on Newspoll guessing.

    PB mean: ALP 54.6 to 45.4 LNP
    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 41

    New guesses recorded since: 17:07AEST
    ALP / LNP
    53 / 47 Al Pal
    56 / 44 bilko
    53.5 / 46.5 booleanbach
    99 / 1 Dan Gulberry
    53 / 47 electionblogger2019.simplesite.com
    53 / 47 Fozzie Logic
    57 / 43 Gecko
    55 / 45 Goll
    52 / 48 Holden Hillbilly
    52 / 48 It’s Time
    54 / 46 klasib
    53 / 47 Puffytmd
    53 / 47 rhwombat
    53 / 47 SilentMajority
    57 / 43 Sprocket_
    54 / 46 Sohar
    53 / 47 steve davis
    52 / 48 Steve777
    53 / 47 sustainable future
    53 / 47 Tricot
    53 / 47 Upnorth
    53 / 47 Yabba

  48. electionblogger2019.simplesite.com @ #2196 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 11:00 pm

    The Foreign Minister is making noises about Hakim when pushed on it at press conferences but I wouldnt’ hold my breath on any genuine attempt to get him home.

    He is not a White South African Farmer. Get your priorities in line with our Border Force objectives. Keep The Brown Ones Out. (sarc)

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