BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The Coalition’s improved performance in the first Newspoll of the year makes little difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Also featured: a closer look at a recent union-commissioned poll of Greg Hunt’s seat of Flinders.

This week’s two-point move in Newspoll excited a certain amount of talk about a Coalition recovery, but it hasn’t impressed the BludgerTrack poll aggregate – the result landed pretty much bang on where it was already, being well in line with the only othe result published so far this year, namely the Essential Research poll of a fortnight ago. As such, the aggregate records a 0.2% shift in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred, no movements on the primary vote greater than 0.4%, and a one seat gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Queensland. The leadership trends have Bill Shorten up a bit on net approval, but little change for Scott Morrison either on either his net approval or preferred prime minister lead. Full results through the link below:

I can also provide further detail on the uComms/ReachTEL poll from the seat of Flinders that was conducted last week for the CFMMEU and reported over the weekend. Labor’s two-party lead of 51-49 compares with Hunt’s redistribution-adjusted winning margin of 57.1-42.9 from 2016, and derives from a respondent-allocated preference split that gives Labor 62.7% of minor party and independent preferences. Labor’s share of the preferences in 2016 was 71.1%, which if applied to the primary vote numbers from this poll boosts Labor’s lead to 53-47. Compared with my own post-redistribution estimates from 2016, the primary votes from the poll have Greg Hunt down from 50.7% to 39.4%, Labor up from 27.4% to 35.2%, the Greens down from 11.2% to 9.1%, and One Nation debuting on 5.7%. All of which has been superseded to some extent by this week’s announcement that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, will be running in the seat.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,817 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 43 of 57
1 … 42 43 44 … 57

  1. I had a chuckle. I have a female cross-staffy. Next door there’s a male German shepherd. They’ve worked it out: she’s in charge.

  2. zoomster

    A good translation. Several years ago Paul Krugman visited NZ. He explained to his readers that there are two main parties. The Labour Party which would be considered Democrats in the USA and the National Party ‘who would also be considered Democrats’ in the USA. 🙂

  3. Rex Douglas @ #2092 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 7:42 am

    Zoidlord @ #2091 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 11:36 am

    Michelle Rowland
    ‏Verified account @MRowlandMP
    2h2 hours ago

    New figures show there were 160,000 missed NBN appointments last year. ❌

    This is why Labor’s #NBN Service Guarantee is important – it’s designed to improve incentives for NBN to reduce missed appointments and minimise excessive downtime. #auspol
    …

    Pathetically weak from Labor to abandon their original NBN policy.

    Perhaps this was the result of a Shorten/Newscorp agreement… ?

    You do realise who has been the Government for the last 5+ years.

    Plus the original plan was about building the network from scratch, not fixing up a fucked up one.

    Two very different things that require a different approach.

  4. Rex Douglas @ #2294 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 10:42 am

    Pathetically weak from Labor to abandon their original NBN policy.

    What are they supposed to do? After having the Coalition spend 6 years trashing the NBN buildout promise to spend another 6 years and $50+ billion ripping the MTM copper and coax out of the ground and replacing it all with fiber?

    If people wanted Labor’s original NBN policiy, they should have voted for it in 2013. It’s 2019 now, so unless you’ve got a time machine there’s no going back to a proper NBN where 93% of people get FTTP.

  5. MDB

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/04/rex-patrick-to-push-for-cotton-export-ban-to-raise-plight-of-murray-darling

    The South Australian Centre Alliance senator Rex Patrick is calling for cotton exports to be banned in an attempt to draw attention to the plight of the Murray-Darling river system and the over-extraction by irrigators.

    The senator is preparing to introduce a bill when parliament resumes next week. It would impose a ban on exporting cotton in three years’ time.

    His proposal is driven by frustration that the states and the commonwealth have expressed an unwillingness to address the problems of the Murray-Darling basin, and have largely dismissed the South Australian royal commission’s findings that the basin plan is failing and needs an overhaul.
    :::
    “It’s like exporting 20% of the Murray-Darling to China and India. It’s not in the national interest: it goes to food security and the environment.”
    :::
    Patrick’s bill, while unlikely to get support from the government or the opposition, is likely to focus attention on the issues facing the basin and would probably be referred to a Senate committee, keeping the issue in the news in the lead-up to the federal election.

    The Greens have called for a federal royal commission, similar to the South Australian inquiry, though that too is unlikely to get support from the major parties, despite last month’s fish deaths at Menindee.
    :::
    But the prospect of Patrick’s move getting support or even the chances of the Murray-Darling basin plan being revised appears slim despite the highly critical findings by the South Australian royal commission.

    Both Labor and the government appear reluctant to reopen discussions on the environmental water recovery target of 2,750 gigalitres that is central to the plan and have instead been focused on a political compromise. Patrick has also flagged that the current plan is likely to be invalid because it took account of considerations not permitted under the Water Act.
    :::
    There is also no sign that Labor will shift its stance on the plan, which was developed when it was in government.

    The opposition leader, Bill Shorten, has asked a panel of scientists to report on the fish kills in the Menindee lakes in January, but so far there are no signs that he or his water spokesman are backing any review of the targets inherent in the plan.
    :::
    But Burke was silent on the commission’s central thrust: that the target should be raised and the buybacks resumed as soon as possible.

    The politics of water over environmental sustainability.

  8. Burgey

    I used to quite enjoy watching Sri Lanka when they had some better players, batsmen in particular.

    Maybe a season without Test matches might benefit a few Australian players, batsmen in particular would get the chance to prove their worth and improve their techniques in a full Sheffield Shield program.

  9. Pegasus @ #2100 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 11:53 am

    MDB

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/04/rex-patrick-to-push-for-cotton-export-ban-to-raise-plight-of-murray-darling

    The South Australian Centre Alliance senator Rex Patrick is calling for cotton exports to be banned in an attempt to draw attention to the plight of the Murray-Darling river system and the over-extraction by irrigators.

    The senator is preparing to introduce a bill when parliament resumes next week. It would impose a ban on exporting cotton in three years’ time.

    His proposal is driven by frustration that the states and the commonwealth have expressed an unwillingness to address the problems of the Murray-Darling basin, and have largely dismissed the South Australian royal commission’s findings that the basin plan is failing and needs an overhaul.
    :::
    “It’s like exporting 20% of the Murray-Darling to China and India. It’s not in the national interest: it goes to food security and the environment.”
    :::
    Patrick’s bill, while unlikely to get support from the government or the opposition, is likely to focus attention on the issues facing the basin and would probably be referred to a Senate committee, keeping the issue in the news in the lead-up to the federal election.

    The Greens have called for a federal royal commission, similar to the South Australian inquiry, though that too is unlikely to get support from the major parties, despite last month’s fish deaths at Menindee.
    :::
    But the prospect of Patrick’s move getting support or even the chances of the Murray-Darling basin plan being revised appears slim despite the highly critical findings by the South Australian royal commission.

    Both Labor and the government appear reluctant to reopen discussions on the environmental water recovery target of 2,750 gigalitres that is central to the plan and have instead been focused on a political compromise. Patrick has also flagged that the current plan is likely to be invalid because it took account of considerations not permitted under the Water Act.
    :::
    There is also no sign that Labor will shift its stance on the plan, which was developed when it was in government.

    The opposition leader, Bill Shorten, has asked a panel of scientists to report on the fish kills in the Menindee lakes in January, but so far there are no signs that he or his water spokesman are backing any review of the targets inherent in the plan.
    :::
    But Burke was silent on the commission’s central thrust: that the target should be raised and the buybacks resumed as soon as possible.

    The politics of water over environmental sustainability.

    Lib-Lab

    same-same

  11. https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/02/01/bludgertrack-53-5-46-5-labor-5/comment-page-42/#comment-3064796

    If I had to differentiate the Greens here would be some of my key messages:
    – When some of their senators were caught to be running afoul section 44 of the Constitution, they seemed to just step down (WA’s Ludlam, QLD’s Waters come to mind)
    – Use themes topical at the WEF or from the OECD in terms of moving to a sustainable economy, climate (run on no regret moves, more trees, less asphalt and concrete/ more stones and pebbles, energy fuel mix, …), rising in-equality
    – Environment (the moves beyond the no regret moves, https://apple.news/ABAtfG_x0Shu0juNSs3zFRg)
    – I think their policy on education is to make tertiary education free (or affordable)
    – I’ll save healthcare for later
    – Human rights seems to be a differentiator, morally if perhaps not popularly
    – Infrastructure
    – Make deployments of the ADF more than one thousand kilometers from Australia’s economic zone or territorial waters subject to a security cabinet vote, parliamentary vote, and a mandatory and binding referendum
    – Ditch the colonial Union Jack/ republic may be, though I prefer the royals
    – Neither Liebor, nor LyingN(C)P in terms of campaign finance reform?

  13. So, Rex Douglas has got his Glibber suit on today about an NBN…..which the Coalition borked but it’s all Labor’s fault because they haven’t promised full nationwide FTTP in the next term of government, should they be elected.

    And a Donations issue which NSW Labor have fully co-operated in the ICAC investigation of and have quarantined the money BUT haven’t given it back…before the results of the investigation is in.

    There’s no pleasing some people.

  14. a r @ #2096 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 10:51 am

    Rex Douglas @ #2294 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 10:42 am

    Pathetically weak from Labor to abandon their original NBN policy.

    What are they supposed to do? After having the Coalition spend 6 years trashing the NBN buildout promise to spend another 6 years and $50+ billion ripping the MTM copper and coax out of the ground and replacing it all with fiber?

    If people wanted Labor’s original NBN policiy, they should have voted for it in 2013. It’s 2019 now, so unless you’ve got a time machine there’s no going back to a proper NBN where 93% of people get FTTP.

    AR

    Why not. The time lines might change but the principle is still fine.

    I suggest that Labor should :
    FIRST mandate NBN fibre to premises in all new builds.
    Second any premises along the path of the main optic cable to the new premises should get access to the NBN, probably on some sort of priority basis
    Third identify high priority NBN zones/people eg where there is a need for remote medicine or special needs, possibly business hubs with a good case, schools, hospitals etc. These should be given priorty for connection
    Fourth once again any one on the main cable rout should be connected. You can ration out these connections according to funding but they can gradual;ly be converted.
    Fifth mandate that when NEW cable is laid to replace decaying copper it is fibre optic and again offer all those along the route to be connected.

    it will take much longer but it will happen

  15. Barney in Go Dau @ #2298 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 10:49 am

    Plus the original plan was about building the network from scratch, not fixing up a fucked up one.

    Disagree. The original plan required ripping out a bunch of old copper lines and replacing them with optical fiber.

    The problem is more that the Coalition spent the money that was allocated for doing that on changing the signaling technology used with the existing copper lines for a marginal speed increase, and that none of the hardware/infrastructure used for that is of any value in an optical deployment.

    You could still build the network basically the same as under Labor’s original plan (rip out all the copper, put in fiber, replace all the DSL boxes with FDH boxes), it’ll just cost double because the Coalition wasted the original budget doing things that aren’t compatible with fiber.

    DaretoTread @ #2309 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 10:59 am

    Why not. The time lines might change but the principle is still fine.

    Cost/practicality, and the impending need to beat the Coalition on budget sweeteners.

    Though yes, eventually it will still happen as tech savvy people with the means to upgrade to a better access technology do so. It’ll just happen on a much longer timescale, and in a way that furthers the divide between the “haves” and the “have-nots” rather than creating a level playing field for pretty much everybody.

  16. Ross Gittins

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/hey-pollies-weak-wage-growth-won-t-fix-itself-20190203-p50vcx.html

    The economy’s prospects are threatened by various risks from overseas – about which we can do little – and by continuing weakness in wage growth – about which the two sides contesting the May federal election have little desire to talk.
    :::
    The result is a change in the structure of employment, one which increases earnings inequality. If so, it’s not a problem that could be fixed by higher wage-rates.
    :::
    He’d give priority to early childhood learning and life-long learning through the TAFE system. He’s happy to note this would require us to pay more tax rather than less – another thought the pollies don’t want us thinking about right now.

  18. C@tmomma @ #2108 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 11:59 am

    So, Rex Douglas has got his Glibber suit on today about an NBN…..which the Coalition borked but it’s all Labor’s fault because they haven’t promised full nationwide FTTP in the next term of government, should they be elected.

    And a Donations issue which NSW Labor have fully co-operated in the ICAC investigation of and have quarantined the money BUT haven’t given it back…before the results of the investigation is in.

    There’s no pleasing some people.

    Do you have any involvement in this developing donations scandal re NSW Labor ?

  22. Rex Douglas @ #2118 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 12:08 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2108 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 11:59 am

    So, Rex Douglas has got his Glibber suit on today about an NBN…..which the Coalition borked but it’s all Labor’s fault because they haven’t promised full nationwide FTTP in the next term of government, should they be elected.

    And a Donations issue which NSW Labor have fully co-operated in the ICAC investigation of and have quarantined the money BUT haven’t given it back…before the results of the investigation is in.

    There’s no pleasing some people.

    Do you have any involvement in this developing donations scandal re NSW Labor ?

    As if. But I expected a snaky question like that from you. And if you read the whole article:
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-04/chinese-donations-to-nsw-labor-examined-icac/10636610?section=politics

    you would have read that it may or may not be a problem, it’s certainly not a ‘scandal’, and I note you used no such words about Tony Abbott’s recent appearance at a Chinese Fundraiser where people associated with the Chinese government’s propaganda wing were present and made donations to the Liberal Party.

    This quote sums it up:

    Labor hopeful raising cash for political career
    Stanley Yee’s eldest son, Jonathan, is an aspiring Labor politician who unsuccessfully ran as a party candidate at Sydney City Council’s 2016 election.

    According to three people close to Jonathan Yee and with knowledge of the donations, there was nothing improper about the donations he solicited.

    Those people said the money was a result of Jonathan Yee encouraging people to donate on the night, in an attempt to prove his fundraising abilities to the Labor Party.

    “That’s how you get endorsed by Labor if you’re Chinese[-Australian], you show them you can raise money,” one of the three people said.

    So, if you try to allude to there being a problem with this, just because they are Chinese Australians, then I can only assume that you are being racist just so you can launch a line of attack against the Labor Party.

    But like a junkyard dog with a bone I’m sure this won’t be the last we hear from you here about it.

  24. Or what?

    ASIC orders Commonwealth Bank to stop charging financial planning fees

    Australia’s corporate watchdog has ordered the Commonwealth Bank’s financial planning arm to immediately stop charging its customers ongoing service fees, hours before the Government releases the banking royal commission’s final report.

    The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) said Commonwealth Financial Planning (CFPL) had breached a court-enforceable undertaking.

    It had also been ordered not to enter into any “new ongoing service arrangements” with customers.

    The practical consequence of ASIC’s directive is that existing clients can continue to receive services from CFPL, but they cannot be charged for that work.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-04/asic-orders-commonwealth-bank-to-stop-charging-financial-fees/10776870

  25. ni appears to be either a tag team, or someone without a life

    Posted 12.36am last night
    Posted 8.06am this morning
    Posted 12.18pm just now, slagging off another commenter

  26. One just needs to get the German Greens party running things for the Greens here. They seem to be a party of government that is going quite well and they went through all that we are seeing in Australia before.

    It’s like the potential doom and death of the Liberal Party. I can remember something similar being said in 2007 and about the ALP in 2013.

  28. sprocket_
    says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 12:30 pm
    ni appears to be either a tag team, or someone without a life
    Posted 12.36am last night
    Posted 8.06am this morning
    Posted 12.18pm just now, slagging off another commenter
    ______________________________
    If that’s true, what does that say about someone who spends their time keeping tabs on someone without a life?

  30. As the city becomes more compact, Associate Professor Philip Gibbons says the remaining green space has to be managed in a more sustainable way – both ecologically and economically.

    He says the ACT needs to look at replacing grassed areas with native landscaping, including native grasses, shrubs, dead wood, rocks and trees to improve biodiversity.

    “We’re not saying get rid of all grass, or that we should plant wall-to-wall of natives. But if you reduce the area of grass, the grass gets maintained better,” he said.

    “It costs $9 million to mow per annum, which is a fair bit of money for the ACT, and the height of grass is a constant source of complaint in the community.

    “When you have high growth times around spring and summer it grows faster than the mowers can get to it, and it’s dominated by two incredibly destructive weeds: Chilean needle grass, and the other is African love grass.

    “I look at the park next to my place and the quality of grass is rubbish. Every ball bowled is a leg break, it goes all over the place. By reducing the amount of grass that has to be maintained, it means the grass that’s left can be maintained to a better quality.”

    The other conundrum about all of Canberra’s mown grass is that it isn’t very green.

    “There’s been some interesting international research which shows maintaining mown grass is not carbon neutral. Grass sequesters CO2, but if you’re mowing and maintaining it all the time it uses more CO2 than the grass sequesters,” Associate Professor Gibbons said.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/act/should-canberra-stop-mowing-and-start-growing-native-grasses-20190128-p50u6e.html

  31. https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/02/01/bludgertrack-53-5-46-5-labor-5/comment-page-43/#comment-3064815

    It is what it is w/r to Nbnco.
    But its current state came about after the cancellation of Opel Networks, no to the Telstra FTTN of 2005, privatisation of a vertically-integrated Telecom/ OTC from 1997, even offloading of Aussat with more than three times debt over equity onto a then start-up Optus …
    Be it Telstra’s Ugly Sister from 2013, or Ruddstra from 2009/ 2007.
    It should be split, and pieces flogged.
    In such a way that competition – today our street still has Telstra HFC or DSL, SingTel Optus HFC or wireless – if returned to extended metro to regional.
    Rural and remote should be subsidised through holistic regional development to enable sea or tree changes. Probably a third satellite, or new nano sat constellation. Go ask Inmarsat – not just academics and pollyTICal advisors – or … how that is done.
    Then there is the many issues, especially with fibre copper. Two fifths of premises are meant to get it. The fed gov should put out a tender to Nbnco and commercial carriers and tech vendors to resolve it (be it more fibre, less copper, wireless …)
    The government/ regulator should set maximum prices and minimum service levels.
    And benchmark Gbps/ $, TB/ $, latency and jitter, MTBF/ MTTR, not just whether 90% of subscribed speed is delivered, and may be compare against The Netherlands, Singapore, New Zealand, France and Canada, in terms of model.
    Chances are we’re talking a write down (be it based on S&P, PwC, …), after which wholeprices and retail prices could be lowered.

  32. Greens should stick to what they do best, The Environment.

    Lots of logs, trees, water, animals disappeared because successive liberal governments state and federal (see Tas/Wa – prime examples!

  37. I’d rather have Bangladesh, Ireland of Afghanistan here than SL. They’ve been coming here since 1985 and have never won a single test here. Not one test. FMD they’re getting beaten up by this Australian side, and we couldn’t beat time with a stick atm.

    It’s terrible. They suck the life out of an entire summer when they tour here, even when they’ve had the likes of Sanga, Murali and Jayawardene.

  39. Burgey @ #2130 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 8:37 am

    I’d rather have Bangladesh, Ireland of Afghanistan here than SL. They’ve been coming here since 1985 and have never won a single test here. Not one test. FMD they’re getting beaten up by this Australian side, and we couldn’t beat time with a stick atm.

    It’s terrible. They suck the life out of an entire summer when they tour here, even when they’ve had the likes of Sanga, Murali and Jayawardene.

    Chaminda Vaas was a quality bowler for them as well.

    https://www.cricbuzz.com/profiles/108/chaminda-vaas

  41. NBN

    The ones that stuffed the NBN were Mal & Tony, but the ones that really really stuffed it we’re the independents forcing Labor to agreeing to service everyone with fibre.. remote & low yield regional areas.

    That’s akin to having high speed rail to broken hill.

    NBN fibre should have serviced large / high density areas only & 5G the rest.

  42. Sceptic @ #2136 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 12:44 pm

    NBN

    The ones that stuffed the NBN were Mal & Tony, but the ones that really really stuffed it we’re the independents forcing Labor to agreeing to service everyone with fibre.. remote & low yield regional areas.

    That’s akin to having high speed rail to broken hill.

    NBN fibre should have serviced large / high density areas only & 5G the rest.

    The real NBN was crucial to regional development and decentralisation.

  43. Wow!!! Why do I need to go to a french paper to understand the UK Brexit.

    If you are interested in Brexit this is a MUST read.

    Do not be alarmed. it is written by a solid Labour member and someone who seems to be a solid remainer. So it is politically correct to read it.

    it is however of a journalistic quality I think I have not seen here for many years and also does not appear in the Guardian or UK papers
    https://mondediplo.com/2019/02/01brexit

  44. @RandaltsRandal

    Finally a Federal response to the fire disaster in Tasmania…
    Marise Payne says – without irony – ‘people will need to contact Centrelink’
    How underwhelming.

    Contact Centrelink? They’d have more luck using a clairvoyant to reach the souls of their great great grandparents than contacting Centrelink by phone!

  45. 5G isn’t appropriate for rural areas really, as it has to be rolled out at the street level with small cells on poles and such, which also means fibre has to be rolled out down streets, just like what the original NBN was gonna do.
    Current Wireless and satellite is the only option when the area is remote, but it should be avoided as much as possible, basically fiber is the answer in most cases.

  47. No wonder they’ve got it all sewn up.

    Peter Harden @hardenuppete

    Replying to @mattjcan @larissawaters

    Hey Matt when were you and @Barnaby_Joyce going to tell us about Barnaby’s first cousin Michael Joyce who just happens to be a senior legal counsel for Adani, QGC, Linc Energy, Comet Ridge and many more of your coal and gas mining mates? #auspol

  48. Barney in Go Dau says: Monday, February 4, 2019 at 12:43 pm

    I’d rather have Bangladesh, Ireland of Afghanistan here than SL. They’ve been coming here since 1985 and have never won a single test here. Not one test. FMD they’re getting beaten up by this Australian side, and we couldn’t beat time with a stick atm.

    It’s terrible. They suck the life out of an entire summer when they tour here, even when they’ve had the likes of Sanga, Murali and Jayawardene.

    Chaminda Vaas was a quality bowler for them as well.

    ************************************************

    Questionable action for some but Sri Lankan Muttiah Muralitharan – Highest Wicket-taker in Test Cricket – leads the pack with 800 wickets in 133 matches with 22.72 average

  49. The last time Australian Cricket toured Sri Lank in 2016, they defeated Australia 3-0. So, Sri Lanka might ask the same questions about why they iother to play against the Aussies.

Comments Page 43 of 57
1 … 42 43 44 … 57

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *