This week’s two-point move in Newspoll excited a certain amount of talk about a Coalition recovery, but it hasn’t impressed the BludgerTrack poll aggregate – the result landed pretty much bang on where it was already, being well in line with the only othe result published so far this year, namely the Essential Research poll of a fortnight ago. As such, the aggregate records a 0.2% shift in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred, no movements on the primary vote greater than 0.4%, and a one seat gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Queensland. The leadership trends have Bill Shorten up a bit on net approval, but little change for Scott Morrison either on either his net approval or preferred prime minister lead. Full results through the link below:
I can also provide further detail on the uComms/ReachTEL poll from the seat of Flinders that was conducted last week for the CFMMEU and reported over the weekend. Labor’s two-party lead of 51-49 compares with Hunt’s redistribution-adjusted winning margin of 57.1-42.9 from 2016, and derives from a respondent-allocated preference split that gives Labor 62.7% of minor party and independent preferences. Labor’s share of the preferences in 2016 was 71.1%, which if applied to the primary vote numbers from this poll boosts Labor’s lead to 53-47. Compared with my own post-redistribution estimates from 2016, the primary votes from the poll have Greg Hunt down from 50.7% to 39.4%, Labor up from 27.4% to 35.2%, the Greens down from 11.2% to 9.1%, and One Nation debuting on 5.7%. All of which has been superseded to some extent by this week’s announcement that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, will be running in the seat.
BiGD
Chaminda Vass was so good he was added to Australian rhyming slang..
Rex Douglas, Tory apologist.
Crankmomma, my party right or wrong.
Twitter comment: Alberici and Ferguson have both been posted offshore. Is this important in an election year?
5 posts nath
Sceptic says:
Monday, February 4, 2019 at 12:44 pm
NBN
The ones that stuffed the NBN were Mal & Tony, but the ones that really really stuffed it we’re the independents forcing Labor to agreeing to service everyone with fibre.. remote & low yield regional areas.
That’s akin to having high speed rail to broken hill.
NBN fibre should have serviced large / high density areas only & 5G the rest.
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The NBN plan agreed with the independents had only 93% fttp. The places and regions you described were always going to be serviced by fixed wireless and satellite.
As for the analogy, the difference was that regional centres of significance having access to high speed broadband (bearing in mind that the biggest cost by far was connecting individual premises, not connecting regional towns and population centres) would open those areas up for population growth based on online work opportunities without the cost of city locations and infrastructure pressure.
High speed rail is physical distance dependent. High speed broadband is not.
I told you that we were warned that this federal election campaign would get dirty. There are some very powerful vested interests out there who don’t want the Labor Party to win the federal election and they will say any grubby thing about anyone associated with the Labor Party in the vain hope that some of the shit will stick.
They are SO desperate to win, not based upon policies which are good for the country, but by throwing so much crap around that people will be put off supporting Labor. They will even accuse a little old lady who has never met the corrupt politician in question in their life, of the same sort of criminality, just because they happen to live in a suburb which is near to one that a faction was named after and a faction, I might add, which was disbanded over a decade ago, and followed by expulsions from the Labor Party of the ALP Secretary at the time, the corrupt politicians, and those who had anything to do with them. They have been replaced by people who have had NOTHING to do with them and who have charted a course as far away from them and their corrupt practices as it is possible to go.
However, the Liberal Party and their foot soldiers on the internet are desperate because it looks like they might lose both the NSW State election and the federal election to Labor and so we get, and will likely continue to get, the disgusting and baseless slurs such as we have seen being made here about me today.
Sorry, but those sort of tactics will never work with me. I’m not that easily intimidated and it will only serve to make me campaign harder to get rid of the political parties that are feeding the grubs on PB.
TPOF @ #2140 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 12:44 pm
I can tell you one thing for sure. I would never get into a spa after nath has been in there. You would likely find his emissions floating around and I don’t think the hot water would kill all the bacteria he would have been carrying.
Was waiting for Peg or Rex to post this…
Labor leader @michaeldaleyMP has asked NSW Labor HQ to quarantine $100,000 in potentially “tainted” donations from 2015 after ICAC raids in December
C@tmomma
says:
I can tell you one thing for sure. I would never get into a spa after nath has been in there. You would likely find his emissions floating around and I don’t think the hot water would kill all the bacteria he would have been carrying.
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Probably a good call. Spas are a bit dangerous, particularly because they are so often used for, as Borat would say: Sexy time!
Sceptic @ #2141 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 12:44 pm
5G wasn’t even invented then, and it’s not the right tech for those areas anyway. In any case, only 93% of the population was to be covered with fibre, the rest were to get fixed wireless and/or satellite.
The whole idea of the government building the network was so that lower density areas got access to fast broadband, same as everyone else. High density effectively subsidising lower density. It’s what governments can do that private businesses won’t.
DaretoTread says:
Monday, February 4, 2019 at 12:49 pm
Wow!!! Why do I need to go to a french paper to understand the UK Brexit.
If you are interested in Brexit this is a MUST read.
Do not be alarmed. it is written by a solid Labour member and someone who seems to be a solid remainer. So it is politically correct to read it.
it is however of a journalistic quality I think I have not seen here for many years and also does not appear in the Guardian or UK papers
https://mondediplo.com/2019/02/01brexit
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Thank you. That is an insightful article. Mason does not mention it, but his argument about the elite global project is validated by the move of the Dyson HQ to Singapore.
C@t always pulls out the ‘little old lady’ routine whenever she cops some. Despite the fact she is a frequent bully and says the most horrible things to people when she’s not feeling so frail.
Sunday Age headline: “Last kids to be off Nauru”
John NOBEL, thank you for your reply. I’ve been thinking about those themes you mention. To me they sound like:
(1) integrity
(2) anti neo-liberalism
(3) pro environment
(4) pro education
(5) pro human rights
(6) pro infrastructure
(7) de-militarisation
(8) pro republic
(9) pro campaign finance reform
I think that strategically this is too many for a minority party. But you could coalesce a few of these and see how that compares with the majors and other minors. My perception based on this list is that the Greens Party stands for morality (equality, education, health, environment, independence, openness, etc.). And to me the Liberal Party stands for power (money, military, rule by law, strength, etc). The Labor Party stands for workers (equality, education, health, environment, etc.) And the National Party stands against the city (insular, environmentally exploitative, etc.). I haven’t thought much about Hanson or Palmer, but they both feel like protest parties.
Is there is a better way than this to characterise the Greens Party and their relation to the other main parties? To me the Greens appear as soft-Labor or mostly-Labor, which is not much differentiation. And I don’t think any political party pushing moral superiority is going to attract enough votes to matter. Greens Party strategies look ill chosen.
TPOF @ #2162 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 1:09 pm
Agreed. The reason working-class Brits voted to leave the EU, summed up in one sentence …
Burgey @ #2137 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 9:37 am
Be thankful Sri Lanka are touring, otherwise the under arm bowling, ball tampering cheats wouldn’t win a Test series all summer. Next year the UAB/BT cheats will be facing Iceland and then Mauritius just so they can win (possibly).
sprocket_ @ #2159 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 1:04 pm
Don’t hold your breath. They, and that nasty little grub, nath, are too busy slurring Labor supporters here.
Was this written as “dark comedy”? Now it’s real.
It appears (from reading the byplay) that nath had to pull out the big guns to make C@t pay attention to him.
So attention deprived he has been since she started ignoring him.
Such a sad, sad poster he/it is.
Oh and nath, I ignore your posts so you needn’t bother with some dull quip in response – it’ll fall on unresponsive fingertips
If you really want to know what Labor’s thinking is wrt communications technology policy, here is a speech given to the Commsday conference last year by the Shadow Communications Minister, Michelle Rowland:
https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2018/04/labors-plan-to-fix-the-nbn-multi-technology-mix-mess/
nath @ #2155 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 9:09 am
Nath, shut up for once!
We all know your love for C@t is only equalled by your love for Shorten.
You really are as boring as bat shit!
jen,
Sad little grub, isn’t he?
Late Riser @1:13PM. “Is there is a better way than this to characterise the Greens Party and their relation to the other main parties?”
Labor has to go after voters who care more about their power bill / mortgage than the future of the planet. The Greens don’t.
Late Riser
The DTT linked article is well worth a read.
Eddie Obeid’s in jail. He is of no further relevance.
jenauthor
says:
Monday, February 4, 2019 at 1:19 pm
It appears (from reading the byplay) that nath had to pull out the big guns to make C@t pay attention to him.
So attention deprived he has been since she started ignoring him.
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that’s amusing. She has been having a go at me for days. Including saying I have no family or children. What If I had lost a child? She is constantly attacking me. I fire back, and then her friends chime in.
WTH!?! I can’t even tell the truth about my age and physical infirmity now without that sad, little grub, nath, casting aspersions at THAT!?!
He’s a sad, and desperate, little grub.
Now I understand the background to Abbott’s comment about doctors ‘erring’ on the side of compassion. Did Tony ever have any compassion for anyone?
Karma.
Who ran the hardest here during the Batman by-election about Bhathal being a bully?
I told you that we were warned that this federal by-election campaign would get dirty. There are some very powerful vested interests out there who didn’t want the Greens Party to win the federal by-election and they will say any grubby thing about anyone associated with the Greens Party in the vain hope that some of the shit will stick.
Same-same during the Victorian state election and the upcoming Federal election.
The dirt units of the political duopoly are just cranking up, as they are on a unity ticket to destroy the Greens at the ballot box and they will employ all the ‘dark arts’ they can muster to contribute to this objective.
Dan Gulberry @ #2159 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 9:15 am
Name a Country that hasn’t been caught ball tampering?
It’s been dealt with far more severely than any other transgression in this area.
Get over it and move on!
Some advice c@t – go back to ignoring him … from what I have seen from quoted posts, his frustration is obvious.
Pegasus @ #2179 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 1:25 pm
Those vested interests are called the voters!
Deal with that reality.
“Name a Country that hasn’t been caught ball tampering?”
Kyrgyzstan? Andorra?
The greens factions dirt units are the ones leaking about the greens
LOL
Why bother:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtmM8VfibqU
Steve777 @ #2175 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 1:22 pm
For the purpose of slurring Labor supporters he is.
Though I note that no mention is made of Chris Hartcher and his corrupt Liberal crew from the Central Coast by those who are so ready to throw Eddie Obeid’s name around with gay abandon.
Or, Damian Mantach, former State Secretary of the Victorian Liberal Party, for that matter.
Or, various members of the federal Liberal Party who have long-standing associations with the Chinese. I wonder how Andrew Robb’s $800000/year job with one of them is going?
Steve777 @ #2174 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 12:21 pm
Good point. I’ll keep thinking.
Pegasus @ #2172 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 9:25 am
Wasn’t the information coming from within the Greens themselves? 😆
Barney – I remember being aghast watching Shahid Afridi ‘munching’ on the ball in a one dayer v Aust. It was clear for the world to see – I think he got a 1 match suspension.
the under arm bowling
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Wow. Who would ever have thought that would be worth 40 years supply of chips on the average kiwi shoulder?
Barney in Go Dau @ #2187 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 1:29 pm
Yep. Apparently Greens’ members are Labor Party Dirt Unit 5th columnists, or sumfink. 😆
The Greens remind me of my ex-wife.
She came up with all sorts of wish lists but I had to actually make things happen for the ideas that had substance. Then she claimed credit for the successes, despite running interference half the time, and laid the blame widely away from herself when something didn’t go quite right (let alone turn to shit).
nath
That is how it has been on PB since the beginning of time.
If I had a dollar for every denigrating post Cat writes about me.
The number of times, first thing in the morning the number of posts where you, RD and me are the object of posts.
It is truly amusing how three posters can create so much faux outrage and angst for a minority of Laborites who on the whole have the run of the place.
Intolerance writ large.
Sceptic @ #2141 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 11:44 am
I’d sooner take the Coalition’s MTM than that option.
Wireless isn’t suitable as a primary solution for residential Internet service, no matter how many G’s it has. There’s only so much spectrum to go around, and with wireless everyone in the same general area has to share it.
I am sure Tony could convince Scott to relocate her here – after a brief stint on Manus:
https://www.politico.eu/article/queen-evacuation-bad-brexit/
TPOF @ #2183 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 9:30 am
Greg Chappell was just ahead of the times.
Nowadays people pay good money to see relics from the past.
Just look at how many bands reform and tour! 😆
I wonder whether Abbott et.al. are proud … promoting policies of climate change denial that look like accelerating mass extinctions of our native fauna.
“But … but … think of the multi-millionaire business that’ll lose some of their exorbitant profits!” is the rallying cry from within conservative ranks ,“the economy needs them to enrich themselves!”
Actually, it has been noted in some quarters, that it is indeed ex-ALP members who are creating problems within the Greens.
Pauline Hanson has nominated an ex-ALP Muslim candidate, Emma Eros, for the NSW election. Nath is not taking it very well.