This week’s two-point move in Newspoll excited a certain amount of talk about a Coalition recovery, but it hasn’t impressed the BludgerTrack poll aggregate – the result landed pretty much bang on where it was already, being well in line with the only othe result published so far this year, namely the Essential Research poll of a fortnight ago. As such, the aggregate records a 0.2% shift in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred, no movements on the primary vote greater than 0.4%, and a one seat gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Queensland. The leadership trends have Bill Shorten up a bit on net approval, but little change for Scott Morrison either on either his net approval or preferred prime minister lead. Full results through the link below:
I can also provide further detail on the uComms/ReachTEL poll from the seat of Flinders that was conducted last week for the CFMMEU and reported over the weekend. Labor’s two-party lead of 51-49 compares with Hunt’s redistribution-adjusted winning margin of 57.1-42.9 from 2016, and derives from a respondent-allocated preference split that gives Labor 62.7% of minor party and independent preferences. Labor’s share of the preferences in 2016 was 71.1%, which if applied to the primary vote numbers from this poll boosts Labor’s lead to 53-47. Compared with my own post-redistribution estimates from 2016, the primary votes from the poll have Greg Hunt down from 50.7% to 39.4%, Labor up from 27.4% to 35.2%, the Greens down from 11.2% to 9.1%, and One Nation debuting on 5.7%. All of which has been superseded to some extent by this week’s announcement that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, will be running in the seat.
There is a vast, gaping hole in Australian politics. The hole is the RW silence on environmental issues. The Gs could be acquiring millions of voters on the right. They have not gained a single vote. Not a one. Their self-styled ID as alt-Labor has destroyed their chances.
Before the 2016 federal election Labor ran hard on its Mediscare campaign.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/jail-time-for-mediscare-campaign-tactics
Currently, the Coalition is running hard on a retiree tax scare campaign.
Karma.
The politics of the Gs have divided and disabled pro-environmental policies in this country. After 30-odd years of G-tinted politics, things are worse than ever.
Why don’t you come to Melbourne Briefly, hang out where the strongest Green booths are and if you come away and still think the Greens are Liberals, I will give you a free massage. Tantric even. 🙂
The franking tax scare will soon peter out. There’s nothing to it. The Lib claims are a fraud.
Another grass-roots movement to find an independent to take on a safe liberal seat, Hughes, held by Craig Kelly with 9.3% margin
Dragging the election out till may might turn out to be one of the biggest mistakes, not just anoying voters, or giving Labor extra time to organize, but giving time for the fractures in their own party to forment to such an extent that the LNP will likely be incapable of forming government even if Labor dont gain any seats due to loses to independents.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/03/craig-kelly-faces-grassroots-campaign-to-oust-him-from-seat-of-hughes
The Greens party who have never been in government federally are simultaneously irrelevant, impotent and all-powerful. Amazing.
The policies and inaction of successive Coalition and Labor governments are responsible for where we are now.
Own it.
nath, the effect of G campaigning is to help the LNP. They don’t see it that way. Fair enough. They are mistaken. Fortunately, G anti-Labor campaigning has begun to harm its authors. They are effectively campaigning against themselves.
“Before the 2016 federal election Labor ran hard on its Mediscare campaign.”
If you had actually followed the issue at all you would know it was not an unfounded scare campaign. There was good evidence at the time that the Coalition was setting up to undermine Medicare.
The Coalition tried to spin it as “scare” and the idiot press went pretty much uncritically with that mythos.
Peg, the Gs are complicit. They have made things worse.
I am a Left-identifying environmentally motivated office bearer in WA. I’m telling you, we think the Gs are part of the problem.
“The franking tax scare will soon peter out. ”
Disagree with that one. The Libs have so little real to offer they will bang this drum all the way to polling day regardless of how obvious the bull shit is. 🙂
Briefly, your chakras are all over the place. This is Tantra Ella, she is a Tantric healer in the Greens stronghold of Clifton Hill. Where I grew up!
She will provide a lingam penis massage that will fully align all your shit. You will be a new man.
https://tantraella.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Dress-3–uai-258×387.jpeg
https://tantraella.com.au/
DaretoTread @ #1895 Sunday, February 3rd, 2019 – 10:34 pm
The same redress as any other guy losing his job for any other reason.
Which may include things like whatever severance he was able to negotiate with his employer, whatever they can wring out of their employer via the courts/workplace regulator, whatever support/welfare the UK offers, whatever support/welfare the EU offers, seeking a new job in the same industry, learning new skills and seeking a new job in a different industry, starting his own business, joining the ‘gig economy’, and probably many other things.
But it’s kind of a silly question anyways, because neither the current UK nor the post-Brexit UK nor the EU guarantees (or will guarantee) anyone a job. People can blame immigrants, or factory relocations, or whatever else all they like. But the reality is that job losses are always going to happen and nothing that anyone can vote for is going to change that. The best political solution you’re realistically going to get is one that more fairly distributes wealth; which isn’t going to get anyone a new job. Ultimately you either stop blaming “the other” for your situation and take responsibility for your own destiny, or you don’t.
Blaming “the immigrants” is particularly ineffective.
https://youtu.be/toL1tXrLA1c?t=18
nath…wot is a chakra? Is it exchangeable for whiskey ?
What are the Greens going to demand in a balance of power situation?
Labor can absolutely rely on Green support on supply and confidence. If they supported the Liberals half the Greens vote would disappear over night.
The Greens have no leverage to demand anything.
The balance of power isn’t actual power. All it does is provide the Greens with the ability to vote with their Liberal mates to black Labor policy.
Pegasus @ #1900 Sunday, February 3rd, 2019 – 7:57 pm
Yep and the Greens still struggling around 10%.
You’ve really been able to embrace an take advantage of it. 😆
Nath’s hope of winning another seat doesn’t come from growing support, but hoping enough of a certain type of people move into it.
Isn’t that like branch stacking. 😆
A scare campaign, whether unfounded or not, is a scare campaign.
Facts are by the by.
Negative politics work.
https://theconversation.com/why-scare-campaigns-like-mediscare-work-even-if-voters-hate-them-62279
Barney in Go Dau
says:
Monday, February 4, 2019 at 12:04 am
Pegasus @ #1900 Sunday, February 3rd, 2019 – 7:57 pm
The Greens party who have never been in government federally are simultaneously irrelevant, impotent and all-powerful. Amazing.
The policies and inaction of successive Coalition and Labor governments are responsible for where we are now.
Own it.
Yep and the Greens still struggling around 10%.
You’ve really been able to embrace an take advantage of it.
Nath’s hope of winning another seat doesn’t come from growing support, but hoping enough of a certain type of people move into it.
Isn’t that like branch stacking.
_____________________________
That’s just demographics Barney. Soon Wills and Batman will be Greens, then Melb Ports and Gellibrand. that will be 5 maybe 6 greens seats in inner Melb. Now if Sydney got their act together, it would be something.
I live in Northcote, one of the Greens’ strognest booths. If it wasn’t desperately unfashionable, I assure you the upper middle class elitists who vote Greens round here would be voting Liberal.
Puffy
Nietzsche meant it figuratively not literally.
briefly @ #1892 Sunday, February 3rd, 2019 – 8:30 pm
Nah. Their children were born in the same shit tank. And the shit isn’t that of their parents, or grandparents.
Do the Nationals branch stack?
Does Labor branch stack in the western suburbs of Melbourne, for example?
Geographical concentration of voters in electorates is not branch stacking.
Nietzsche was a nutter.
The Greens don’t even appear to be trying in Cooper (ex Batman). They’ve yet to formally announce their candidate.
And with a third of the membership walking out, they’re not going to have the booth resources to staff their target seats.
With the ongoing implosion of the Darebin branch, it may be some time to turn this around.
Okay, our house has cooled to a tolerable 27 degrees. Time to retire for the night.
Sweet dreams all.
Goodnight peg.
nath @ #1911 Sunday, February 3rd, 2019 – 8:07 pm
Do the Greens have some sort of screening process on house sales? 😆
The stagnant vote also suggests that new supporters are counterbalanced to some extent by those older who stop.
Are these people then evicted from these suburbs?
Just in case anyone is wondering who to barrack for tomorrow, they should be on the LA Rams. The Patriots are rightly the most hated sports team in the US after the Yankees.
D
“Puffy
Nietzsche meant it figuratively not literally.”
Taken literally, it implies the non existance of God, so figurative and literal meanings the same.
Barney in Go Dau
says:
Monday, February 4, 2019 at 12:16 am
nath @ #1911 Sunday, February 3rd, 2019 – 8:07 pm
Barney in Go Dau
says:
Monday, February 4, 2019 at 12:04 am
Pegasus @ #1900 Sunday, February 3rd, 2019 – 7:57 pm
The Greens party who have never been in government federally are simultaneously irrelevant, impotent and all-powerful. Amazing.
The policies and inaction of successive Coalition and Labor governments are responsible for where we are now.
Own it.
Yep and the Greens still struggling around 10%.
You’ve really been able to embrace an take advantage of it.
Nath’s hope of winning another seat doesn’t come from growing support, but hoping enough of a certain type of people move into it.
Isn’t that like branch stacking.
_____________________________
That’s just demographics Barney. Soon Wills and Batman will be Greens, then Melb Ports and Gellibrand. that will be 5 maybe 6 greens seats in inner Melb. Now if Sydney got their act together, it would be something.
Do the Greens have some sort of screening process on house sales?
The stagnant vote also suggests that new supporters are counterbalanced to some extent by those older who stop.
Are these people then evicted from these suburbs?
__________________________________
It may seem a stagnant vote but what is happening over the past 15 years is a concentration of that vote, if you look at the voting in Melbourne, Wills, Batman since 2004 and compare that with the state-wide vote you will see what I mean.
Ah, did I strike a very sensitive Mavis nerve because I mentioned the structural and cultural imbalances in our society, all of them actually, that grievously disadvantages women from the very top to the very bottom of the classes?
And then had the temerity to complain about it?
Mavis Smith @ #1924 Sunday, February 3rd, 2019 – 11:13 pm
Yeah, but that Tyr Anasazi guy was kinda cool.
Diogenes @ #1928 Sunday, February 3rd, 2019 – 9:17 pm
Every time there is a gridiron game being played, sport is the loser.
I can think of no other human activity more worthy of the description “much ado about nothing:.
I just read the ticker tape at the bottom of a CNN newscast on Youtube, and it described a Senator as ’49 years old, the youngest senator, not married and vegan.’
Are we going to see the menus of every USA Senator when they take office, or are they saying he is not married because he is a vegan?
Candidate Registration:
Tick your diet choice:
Vegetarian
Carnivore
Omivore
Vegan
Gluten Free
Carb-free
Sugar-free
Offal Rejector
Lactose Intolerant
Fruitarian
Pescetarian
Cannibal
Herbivore (only eats Herbs – a variant of Cannibal.)
briefly @ #1905 Sunday, February 3rd, 2019 – 8:54 pm
It will only peter out because the issues at hand are so complicated that few understand them, and, since Labor got on the front foot with this early on they have been able to present it as a rort enjoyed by the top end of town – something the L/NP have lost the politics on because they waited too long and as result, perceptions on the issue are set in stone.
Shorten hit the nail on the head at the Ellenbrook Town Hall (Pearce): “…if you don’t know what I’m talking about {dividend imputation} then it almost certainly won’t affect you and you don’t need to worry about it”.
We (Labor) need to do better with countering the L/NP’s inevitable scare campaigns.
The Enlightenment killed God, metaphorically.
PuffyTMD:
Ah, did I strike a very sensitive Mavis nerve because I mentioned the structural and cultural imbalances in our society, all of them actually, that grievously disadvantages women from the very top to the very bottom of the classes?
Yes, Puffy, I’m convinced with your argument, albeit which strikes me as a tad sexist.
When a student, I was taken by another who studied Nietzsche. I wished him well.
Which is sexist? The “structural and cultural imbalances in our society, all of them actually, that grievously disadvantages women from the very top to the very bottom of the classes?” Or saying there is “structural and cultural imbalances in our society, all of them actually, that grievously disadvantages women from the very top to the very bottom of the classes?”
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DyeEPPnWkAA61ad?format=jpg&name=small
Roger: please don’t be so boring.
Labor’s so-called ‘retiree tax’ policy explained:
1. Retirees will STILL get franking credits from investments to reduce income tax payable. There is no double taxation.
2. But it can only reduce taxable income to ZERO, not some ridiculous fake “negative” which results in someone who paid $0 tax getting a “tax refund”.
SCARED YET??? Or does it seem bloody obvious?
Why was this scam allowed in the first place, LNP?
William Bowe: I wasn’t pleased with your post tonight. It’s your site; but nevertheless, I’m not pleased thereof. You must lift your game and be balanced.
Mavis, it strikes me that the solution to this impasse is for you to stop coming here.
The Opposition today will savage the Government’s policies as “not working for working people” in a blistering response to torrid Coalition warnings of an economic future under Labor.
It will push the debate over the Government’s economic competence to the centre of its election campaign, and make a pre-emotive strike at the coming Budget.
Government handling of finances will be depicted as marked by shocking neglect and unfairness to wage earners.
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/chifley-oration-bowen-labor-says-coalition-government-not-working-for-working-people/news-story/e618252842b08a2c8191b1ec24f36949
Essential may be taking turns with Newspoll on alternate weeks. If so we might be due an Essential poll on Tuesday. Maybe. If anyone wants to put in a guess I’ll be back in the morning to harvest and track. I have Essential guesses for Frednk, Grumps, Mr Ed and Sonar for an Essential poll that did not eventuate a week ago, which I will carry forward unless updated. My Essential guess is ALP 54 – 46 LNP.
Good night all.
57-43 ALP
When ScoMo and the LNP lose this upcoming election, Bill Shorten will have questions to answer!
I just caught up with Insiders… hate to say it but Rex was right about Bill sounding too rehearsed on talking points. Nevertheless, a worthy interview that did no harm to the cause. In particular I liked his counter argument on Morrison’s efforts to deflect (possible) recommendations by Haynes re Banks to supposedly ‘protect’ cashflow in the market. A smart tactic, given the Coalition’s sycophancy to donors.
Another night of torrential rain in Townsville has forced the dam spillway to be fully opened. Major flooding is certain.
Nobody has been game in Qld politics to link extreme floods and cyclones to climate change (and coal mining) but it is becoming unavoidable. The LNP support the industry that is causing this.