This week’s two-point move in Newspoll excited a certain amount of talk about a Coalition recovery, but it hasn’t impressed the BludgerTrack poll aggregate – the result landed pretty much bang on where it was already, being well in line with the only othe result published so far this year, namely the Essential Research poll of a fortnight ago. As such, the aggregate records a 0.2% shift in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred, no movements on the primary vote greater than 0.4%, and a one seat gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Queensland. The leadership trends have Bill Shorten up a bit on net approval, but little change for Scott Morrison either on either his net approval or preferred prime minister lead. Full results through the link below:
I can also provide further detail on the uComms/ReachTEL poll from the seat of Flinders that was conducted last week for the CFMMEU and reported over the weekend. Labor’s two-party lead of 51-49 compares with Hunt’s redistribution-adjusted winning margin of 57.1-42.9 from 2016, and derives from a respondent-allocated preference split that gives Labor 62.7% of minor party and independent preferences. Labor’s share of the preferences in 2016 was 71.1%, which if applied to the primary vote numbers from this poll boosts Labor’s lead to 53-47. Compared with my own post-redistribution estimates from 2016, the primary votes from the poll have Greg Hunt down from 50.7% to 39.4%, Labor up from 27.4% to 35.2%, the Greens down from 11.2% to 9.1%, and One Nation debuting on 5.7%. All of which has been superseded to some extent by this week’s announcement that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, will be running in the seat.
My opinion is that the Greens don’t want, or shouldn’t want to be a major party and that 10-15%, preferably the latter, is not only their ceiling but also ideal. The problem has been in the distribution of their vote, but that is changing, primarily due to demographic changes in inner Melbourne. Sydney is lagging in this regard but should eventually catch up somewhat. All the Greens need is a core group of 7 or 8 Lower House seats, maximising their vote and influence.
ajm @ #1760 Sunday, February 3rd, 2019 – 8:50 pm
ajm
Don’t you think you are over egging all this a bit. Some of it is good some bad.
Take ideas. if you know any history at all you will know that free movement of IDEAS has never been a problem in Europe. That just has not been an issue since Roman times. Scientific, cultural, political and economic ideas have swiftly moved within Europe. So people who talk of movement of ideas are just spouting empty rhetoric. Think scientific endeavour (correspondence between Newton and scientists in Germany, think renaissance, etc. Think indeed of political ideas – communism, fascism and democracy, all spread in Europe about as fast as a letter could be written.
Now as to the other three, people, labor capital, that is the problem and those who think it great are the elites and not Dan’s mates buried in Sh*t up to their eyeballs. Some have gained by this movement but many have lost and the trouble with the elitist remainers from their ruling class citadels is that like marie Antoinette they insist on telling the poor to eat cake.
I think Europe was a GREAT idea, but unfortunately it seems to have been infected by the capitalist, globalist laissez faire virus, which means that it is sucking he lifeblood out of the people. When Europe was ruled by nations each with predominately social democratic (Labor) governments with a common goal of egality, fraternity and liberty, it was great. Once egality fell over (killrd by the 1970s monetarists and the politcs of greed0, and liberty went overboard pushed by fear of terrorists, there is only fraternity left and that is a bloody thin bond.
So put down the pipe you are smoking and look at the reality, not what the story books tell you.
Confessions @ #1788 Sunday, February 3rd, 2019 – 7:05 pm
No, what I’m saying is that the people whose lives and communities ave been destroyed over the last 40 years are not going to benefit from either leaving or staying. Their lives and communities will remain at shit level.
Solutions? I don’t have any. At the moment neither does anyone else, especially those that created the mess.
Barney@10:13pm
Bloody well said.
https://electrek.co/2019/01/31/volkswagen-vw-electric-dune-buggy/
I think i want one. 🙂 And if i get a silly cap with it to cover any bald spot does this count as dealing with mid life crisis??? 🙂
There are others who have greater ‘crosses’ than mine. I know that. I am lucky that mine is as small as it is compared to others. There are probably those reading PB who I would like to scoop up in my arms and wish all their pain away if only I could find the magic words. I know people on here and who were on here who have children/adult kids die, mine all live. I am sorry and wish I could heal us all.
Love to all.
Once Preston goes significantly Green. Batman is won. And the people moving in? People from predominantly Green voting areas. While they are replaced by Green voting younger people from the ‘burbs.
Preston ($950,000) could soon achieve a seven-figure median, joining the trendy suburbs to its south.
Nelson Alexander Preston partner Colin Abbas said buyers were including Preston in their wish list of suburbs.
“The majority of our buyers come from the inner city, Brunswick, Thornbury, Northcote,” he said. “It’s people who are upgrading from [apartments] or renters.”
https://www.domain.com.au/news/the-13-victorian-neighbourhoods-that-could-be-the-next-members-of-the-milliondollarmedian-club-20180731-h13dnh-755703/
“God has spoken.”
According to my gravatar;
God is dead.
The few people in the UK I comment with on social media seem all for Brexit and hate the EU with a passion. I can’t get to the bottom of it.
I don’t think I would get a list of good reasons, but the emotion is high.
Crankmomma lifting the tone of the place again I see.
The Role Climate Change Plays In Weather Extremes
After a week of record-cold temperatures, NPR’s Michel Martin speaks with climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe about how climate change is leading to more weather extremes.
MARTIN: So NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, tweeted this week, quote, “winter storms don’t prove that global warming isn’t happening,” unquote. So how is it possible for warmer temperatures to yield yet more snow or these just huge amounts of snow?
HAYHOE: Well, so, first of all, people say – why is it so cold out? And the first answer to that question is it’s winter. And then the second answer to that is it’s weather because, you know, we get hot and cold and wet and dry. That’s weather. But the third answer is, actually, the really interesting one to us, scientists. And it’s the fact that as the planet gets warmer, our air can hold more water vapor.
And so when a storm comes along now as opposed to 50 or a hundred years ago, there’s more water vapor in the atmosphere for the storm to sweep up and dump on us. Now, if it’s above freezing, that precipitation falls as rain. But if it’s below freezing, it can even fall as snow. And our winters – make no mistake – are warming. In fact, winters are warming faster than any other season. But it still gets below freezing, so we still have snow. But we can see more of it when it’s warmer.
https://www.npr.org/2019/02/02/691018215/the-role-climate-change-plays-in-weather-extremes
https://www.npr.org/2019/02/02/691018215/the-role-climate-change-plays-in-weather-extremes
Puffy, you have nothing to apologise for. The fault is with others not with you. Like The Triffids album, ‘Born Sandy Devotional’, you were Born Puffy Devotional. You always seem to be devoting your love and energy to others selflessly. You are ridgy didge. Don’t listen to the supercilious lowlife abusers. You are worth 1000 of them.
I only have one complaint though. I miss your stories about you building stuff. 🙂
Dio
God/Goddess can exist or not exist. He/She cannot be dead. Death is not a state God/Goddess can exist in, and still be a deity. If he/she is dead than she/he was not a god and so loses the capitalisation of Their Name.
Puff:
Very sorry to hear about your Meoldema. Sounds like that sucks and I don’t know what to say on that front. 🙁
nath @ 10:48
that’s a realistic and, hopefully, achievable aim in the long run.
In November 2017 RDN said the aim for the Greens is to win 25 seats over the next generation.
Dan, the problem for the economically repressed areas that voted Leave is they will become palpably much worse off after Brexit.
They have been told the opposite. They are going to feel very cross when reality arrives.
They have been told to blame the EU for their troubles. They will soon find out they have been lied to and that they have lied to themselves.
They have bought in to a huge, reckless and deliberate lie. There will be trouble. The worst of it is that Brexit has brought the people of the UK into conflict with each other. No one can really foresee where that will lead.
PuffyTMD @ #1851 Sunday, February 3rd, 2019 – 6:59 pm
I lived there for over 5 years and it didn’t make sense.
The closest I could get to it was,
Pining for Empire!
It was a sense that they were once great and they could be again, and they didn’t need anyone’s help to do it.
🙂
Yes Peg, think about what could have happened after the 2010 and 2016 elections if the Greens had 7 Federal Seats. I wouldn’t want them to take Ministerial posts actually, but to stand apart and make demands. Far more important than getting perks.
[‘I’m pretty sure they don’t have form mocking other posters about the deaths of their spouses.’]
Oh for fuck suck. Yes, I was wrong; but how long am I’m to be cautioned? I did apologize. What’s more, what can I do? – feminists seemingly in preponderance.
A generation being 25 years iirc.
Clem, you wouldn’t know a positive tone if you fell over one.
Nor is your one liner backhander directed at me at all pertinent, except for the fact that it personifies the fact that you just come to snipe.
Player One @ #1800 Sunday, February 3rd, 2019 – 7:14 pm
Indeed. The point poroti made was exactly what I was trying to say. It turns out you’d have agreed with me if I had said it that way.
All’s well that ends well.
And as far as saying (I know it wasn’t you that said it), that GDP per capita will fall is an irrelevance.
GDP per capita is much the same as the “average wage”. It distorts the income/wealth disparities of the likes of Fauntleroy Upperclasstwit-Smythe and Bert Bonesofhisarse, and misrepresents both. Fauntleroy appears to be poorer than he really is, and Bert appears richer than he actually is. It is, to use an economic term, pure bullshit. Smoke and mirrors that serves no other purpose than to disguise how the rich are growing exponentially richer and the poor are getting exponentially poorer, while the middle class is being driven further and further backwards as well.
Jacinda Ardern is on the right track by no longer recognising GDP, or even per capita GDP as being indicators of how well a nation is doing.
For as long as we keep using GDP, per capita GDP and average wages to determine our well-being, the gap between the haves and the have-nots will continue to grow until one day, the peasants storm the Bastille.
Mavis, only in the mind of an arsehole does something that starts with the following words (in reference to the death of her husband, mind you) qualify as an “apology”.
C@tmomma @ #1862 Sunday, February 3rd, 2019 – 10:31 pm
Thank you.
I am thinking of enrolling in a woodworking course this year. I want to build something, using big machines. There is nothing like pushing a piece of wood through a ripsaw to start making a board to give one a rush.
If I do, I will keep you posted.
nath
“I wouldn’t want them to take Ministerial posts actually, but to stand apart”
That’s my position too.
Mavis that was savage, I didn’t understand it at first but clearly you are having a terrible night. Maybe time to go to sleep.
Mavis, PTSD is a bastard. But it would probably be a good idea not to take it out on the rest of us. You need sympathy and understanding, not ridicule.
Pegasus @ #1875 Sunday, February 3rd, 2019 – 10:13 pm
Ah! All power and no responsibility! Now I get it!
ajm
says:
Sunday, February 3, 2019 at 11:16 pm
Pegasus @ #1875 Sunday, February 3rd, 2019 – 10:13 pm
nath
“I wouldn’t want them to take Ministerial posts actually, but to stand apart”
That’s my position too.
Ah! All power and no responsibility! Now I get it!
_______________________________
No, why get bogged down in one or two portfolios. better to pool resources and oversee the ALP and administer them like the delinquents they are.
Confessions @ #1864 Sunday, February 3rd, 2019 – 10:34 pm
I am just sharing my worry. We being a tough lot, she is 82, and will probably still be worrying me when she is 92.
She is utterly and completely in love with our new puppy/now one-year old Tenterfield terrier, Cosmos. My gravatar is Shep, her beloved Tentie who passed away at 14 years of age early in 2017.
Doggies are a blessing.
Any employer is required to deduct PAYG tax from the salary paid to any employee – unless the employee has a dispensation from the ATO (because their earnings are under the threshold for paying tax).
IF you do not provide that dispensation then, at the end of the Financial Year, you submit a tax return and the tax remitted by your employer is refunded to you
Other income such as interest on bank accounts, dividends etc are captured by your TFN, and if you do not provide same 50% (I think) is remitted by the paying entity to the ATO, again, if you are under the tax threshold or the amount remitted to the ATO is above the tax assessed as due, you are refunded upon you lodging a tax return
These refunds, in fact any refunds, are assessed and refunded upon the submission of a tax return, the detail identifying that you have paid more tax than is your assessed liability
Then we get to Social Security and the detail sought by government to assess eligibility
BUT, with Franking Credits, the amount the ATO remit to you is calculated on you NOT lodging a Tax Return because you have no income which is assessable for any tax liability (so, as a self funded retiree where BOTH you and your spouse have $1.5 Million in superannuation paying an Allocated Pension at 5%, so, between you $150,000- PA and where your other income which is taxable is under the tax threshold plus other measurements, so $25,000- PA each = $200,000- PA from all sources)
BUT, if that $50,000- of income between you is from Australian Companies paying fully franked dividends lo and behold, the government remit to you the tax the Company has paid (the dividend from after tax profit).
As I understand the proposed change back to the Keating legislation, if you receive the Aged Pension (courtesy of a Centrelink assessment) and you hold Shares, the Franking Credit will remain in full force and effect
But how many qualifying for the Aged Pension hold Shares (noting bank shares are above $20- a Share, but Telsta are under $3-)?
So how many people not qualifying for the Aged Pension or part thereof are we talking about and, more pertinent, what are their financial circumstances (noting some say 30% of their tax free income comes from the ATO giving them what they have not paid and are not assessed to pay in the first instance?
Those complaining seem to be consistently referring to “losing” 30% of their income – but the sums do not add up
Those complaining should detail their financial circumstances not just bleat about 30% of their income being “lost”
Then you look at the cost to the Budget and the growth in that cost
So, between a couple, receiving $50,000- a year in dividends ($25,000- each being the tax threshold)
And, if that $50,000- represents 30%, then the tax exempt Allocated Pension between both spouses is $150,000-, so $3 Million in superannuation and total tax free income of $200,000- PLUS what the government then sends to you under Costello’s changes to Keating’s legislation
I did note someone responding to some facts I put on here the other day that their return on Australian Shares over the past 2 years until June 2018 were 14% and 17%, which, if true which I doubt off the best Sector performance being Health Care, would have to include dividends (naturally) AND Franking Credits remitted because there is no assessable tax income obligation
No doubt those beneficiaries under this rort including Shareholders in the agitating Wilson Asset Management will screech from the tree tops, supported by their political party
But they should be called out on the facts
These are rich people skimming ill gotten cream off the cake – to the detriment of everyone else
This is also the demographic who upsize their residence to continue to qualify for part Aged Pension (so deploying funds to home ownership because otherwise those funds would make them ineligible for a part Aged Pension and the concessions which go with that status).
Me?
The further I am distanced from government the more comfortable I feel
I just do not want government looking over my shoulder at everything I do
But each to their own
nath @ #1860 Sunday, February 3rd, 2019 – 7:08 pm
And you wonder why Labor opposes the Greens so strongly.
The Greens might start advancing progressive politics when they start taking seats off the conservative Parties.
Pegasus says:
Sunday, February 3, 2019 at 11:13 pm
nath
“I wouldn’t want them to take Ministerial posts actually, but to stand apart”
That’s my position too.
That is to say, you hope for power without responsibility.
Makes perfect sense.
briefly @ #1866 Sunday, February 3rd, 2019 – 8:06 pm
Yes. Instead of being buried up to their eyeballs in shit, they’ll be buried up to their eyebrows in shit. A huge difference.
Dan Gulberry @ #1826 Sunday, February 3rd, 2019 – 9:01 pm
Inaccurate summary. My points are more:
1. If we’re going to do representative democracy instead of direct democracy, then representatives shouldn’t be beholden to opinion polls or afraid to tell their constituents “that thing you want is stupid (and here’s why it’s stupid), so it’s not happening”.
2. You can’t win support for your side if you’re too paralyzed to pick a side or too meek to call the other side wrong and aggressively explain why it’s wrong.
3. Remainers need to do that, and make the case both that microscopically less shit is still the preferable amount of shit and that if the problem is mountains of shit then there are better ways to solve it than Brexit.
That may be so, but it is beside the point.
I for one have always enjoyed your comments Puffy, whenever you get the chance to make them, and whenever I get the chance to see them.
We all have things that cause us pain and suffering, and it is only in sharing those things with one another that we can empathise with one another. And it is empathy that has always driven change for the better. it is empathy that creates solidarity and progress. It is empathy that inspires the better angels of our nature.
Keep marching forward Comrade!
Why is this a bad thing?
Wow; I’ve been on PB less than a week and I already want to shove a sock down Mavis Smith’s throat.
Do yourself a favour Mavis, STFU
Now not be an a…hole means being a feminist ? I have an ignore button for the likes of you. What a tool.
Observer @ #1881 Sunday, February 3rd, 2019 – 10:49 pm
Thank you for this information. I like to read your comments and the info you provide.
And well done on your attitudes and integrity.
I don’t wish the Greens to be tainted by association with either of the two major parties.
By standing apart the Greens party would be seen to be independent and would be able to assess each and every policy on its merits, regardless of its origin.
Puff:
Best wishes to your friend.
Yes. Instead of being buried up to their eyeballs in shit, they’ll be buried up to their eyebrows in shit. A huge difference.
Nah. They have chosen to drown heir offspring in shit. In their own shit.
They may think they’ve been hard done by. They ain’t seen nothing.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/02/01/bludgertrack-53-5-46-5-labor-5/comment-page-38/#comment-3064506
The Greens have taken seats on the Coalition. Prahran in 2014 and Ballina in 2015.
a r @ #1876 Sunday, February 3rd, 2019 – 10:21 pm
ar
Yes but what ARE those better ways and how can the schuck in Northern England influence the outcome.
The trouble with the democracy of the EU as I gather is that it is NOT representative and the bureaucrats pretty much run the place. What redress does a guy losing his job to a relocated factory or an immigrant worker have. He cannot use his vote in the UK, since the UK government has no say, he cannot exert much influence in the EU Parliament given that his voice is drowned out by others who stand to gain.
Even f he could get sympathy from the EU parliament he would e overruled by Brussels
TTFAB
An inconvenient fact.
The thing I really don’t get when brexiters, particularly those on the left, blame the EU for rising inequality in the UK, is that almost all of the most equal countries in the world (in terms of income) are either members of the EU, or are closely associated with it. Denmark, Norway, Iceland, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Slovakia and the Czech Republic all have very high income equality.
It is not EU membership or association that causes inequality – it’s how those member/associate states decide to utilise their membership, and the taxation choices they make, that determines whether or not they have a relatively equal or unequal society.
[‘Mavis that was savage, I didn’t understand it at first but clearly you are having a terrible night. Maybe time to go to sleep.’]
Please, nath, Mavis is not ‘having a terrible night’; she is, in fact, having a very gay night, despite the moderator, who needs to take a deep breath.
JimmyD….exactly
Still, someone must be blamed for the sorrows and the wrongs. It’s always easier to blame the absent or the innocent.
Pegasus says:
Sunday, February 3, 2019 at 11:28 pm
I don’t wish the Greens to be tainted by association with either of the two major parties.
By standing apart the Greens party would be seen to be independent and would be able to assess each and every policy on its merits, regardless of its origin.
You’re very welcome to stand apart. Very welcome.
Tom the first and best @ #1886 Sunday, February 3rd, 2019 – 7:34 pm
I was talking federally not at State level.