Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

In the first new poll of the year, both major parties are up on the primary vote, yet their leaders’ disapproval ratings have shot upwards.

Essential Research is back in business, its first poll for the new year no change on Labor’s 53-47 lead in the final poll last year. Both major parties are on 38% on the primary votes, which is a two-point improvement for Labor and a one-point improvement for the Coalition. Minor party primary votes will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today. In a spirit of seasonal goodwill, monthly leadership ratings find both leaders well up on disapproval – by five points in Morrison’s case to 39%, and four in Shorten’s case to 47% – while Morrison is up one on approval to 42% and Shorten is unchanged on 35%.

As related by The Guardian, further questions mostly focused on the recent far right rally in St Kilda, the most interesting finding being that 48% thought Scott Morrison “demonstrated poor leadership by not immediately condemning the rally, and those who attended it, in stronger terms”, compared with 36% who disagreed. Only 22% thought it appropriate for Senator Fraser Anning to “use taxpayer money to attend the rally”, with 66% saying it was appropriate; 74% felt there was ”no place in Australian society for the use of racist and fascist symbols used by participants in the rally”, whereas 17% were apparently all in favour of them; and that 73% nonetheless felt that “Australians have the right to peacefully protest, no matter how extreme their views”, while 19% didn’t.

The poll also find 63% support for pill testing, although the question was very particular about the specifics, specifying circumstances in which “trained counsellors provide risk-reduction advice informed by on-site laboratory analysis of people’s drugs”.

UPDATE: Full report here. The Greens are down a point to 10%, and One Nation are steady on 7%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,042 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 35 of 41
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  1. ItzaDream @ #1687 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 1:43 pm

    L R

    I agree with you about certainty. It is the enemy of progress and the bedrock of fundamentalism. Some years ago I read “In Defence of Doubt“, by expat Dr Val Webb, dealing with religion and faith. I can’t recall whether she addresses the other side of the coin which imo is fear.

    (on and off today, so not engaging is not ignoring)

    Thanks. I’ll look for it. My revelation on science was reading Feynman, who said, wtte, “What is not surrounded by questions cannot be the truth.”

  2. Put me down for being in favour of changing the date with a suggestion of 27 May, the anniversary of the successful referendum to include Aboriginals in the census.

    I find the faux patriotism and nationalism that is increasingly exhibited in the lead-up to and during Australia Day celebrations to be embarrassing, as I do for ANZAC Day. I would very much like for Australia to properly mature as a nation by facing up to it’s history, warts and all.

  3. Re Plimer
    Respectable and credible scientists avoid him – just as they avoid “creation scientists” and other practitioners of pseudoscience. So it’s no surprise Plimer only mixes with other crackpots. Plimer’s statement says more about himself than it does about the sensible scientists that he avoids (and who in turn avoid him).

  4. phoenixRED says:
    Thursday, January 17, 2019 at 2:37 pm
    Late Riser says: Thursday, January 17, 2019 at 2:32 pm

    Has anyone done an analysis of the day by day cumulative effects of the US gov shutdown? I’m thinking something along the lines of a table that shows what happens on day X. Or maybe how long until each bad thing happens.

    The crunch will probably come when enough unpaid workers deemed “essential” refuse to come into work any more until they are paid. There are reports of more TSA security screening workers calling in sick or saying they cannot afford the journey to work. If enough air traffic controllers don’t come to work, flights could be severely affected.

    CNN has a quick check list of what Federal government functions are affected and what might happen as the shut down drags on.
    https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2019/01/politics/shutdown-effects/

    A number of polls show people blame Trump for the shut down.
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-week-4-of-the-shutdown-americans-still-think-trump-is-to-blame/

  5. The Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists has been raising concerns about the MDB plan since its inception, as has the Greens Party who accepted the evidence of the experts and the scientists.

    The MDB plan was a bipartisan agreement signed into law under the Gillard government in 2012. The political duopoly ignored scientific evidence about the consequences of their plan.

    The plan was highly controversial then.

    The chickens are coming home to roost.

  6. don @ #1370 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 2:44 pm

    KayJay @ #1318 Wednesday, January 16th, 2019 – 8:10 pm

    don
    Wednesday, January 16th, 2019 – 7:53 pm
    Comment #1267

    That’s odd. ——–

    I got lost after that. I render here appropriate emoji for my understanding. 😵

    Next you will be telling me that rest 😲 is relative.

    Indeed, sometimes it is – I have often needed rest after a relative finally departs for their home!

    Not a one up – however – in the sweet by and by my wife would entertain the fambly (rural spelling today) while I hid in the bedroom. She – kind and loving woman would eventually arrive to inform me “I’ve kicked them out”. She would then add “you coward”.

    Zo yew see – in line with Mr. Plimers theorem of abysmal backward downsides – we are so much better served when we …….(zorry zir – I have no idea what I was going to say).

    Really good day for air conditioned resting and reading. Watch out for them Nat voting sheep. 🐏🐑 ☮

  7. grimace
    “I find the faux patriotism and nationalism that is increasingly exhibited in the lead-up to and during Australia Day celebrations to be embarrassing, as I do for ANZAC Day. I would very much like for Australia to properly mature as a nation by facing up to it’s history, warts and all.”

    I agree entirely. Ironically (and unsurprisingly) those who want to shut down any/all discussion about the more unsettling aspects of our history also tend to be the most vocal champions of free speech.

  8. Remember Doggerland? Before the EU there was Doggerland !!

    … roughly 12,000 years ago, as the last major ice age was reaching its end, the area was very different. Instead of the North Sea, the area was a series of gently sloping hills, marshland, heavily wooded valleys, and swampy lagoons: Doggerland.

    Mesolithic people populated Doggerland. Archaeologists and anthropologists say the Doggerlanders were hunter-gatherers who migrated with the seasons, fishing, hunting, and gathering food such as hazelnuts and berries.

    Over time, the Doggerlanders were slowly flooded out of their seasonal hunting grounds. Water previously locked away in glaciers and ice sheets began to melt, drowning Doggerland. Around 6,000 years ago, the Mesolithic people were forced onto higher ground in what is today England and the Netherlands.

    https://www.nationalgeographic.org/maps/doggerland/

  9. Isn’t Plimer the same dickhead who campaigns against the idea that exposure to asbestos causes mesothelioma?

    What a disgrace.

  10. Myself: “It is Rex who is anti-democratic…”

    Rex: “This is a parody, yes ..?”

    I think it’s quite possible, indeed likely, that you genuinely believe that to be the case.

    Learn some history

  12. citizen. This is something like what I was thinking of. Like a Bad-Advents Calendar, behind each little door there’s a different lump of shit. Thanks.

  13. Rex, anti-democratic – what a laugh.

    Those who seem to believe in a one-party state governed by the glorious ALP are the ones who are anti-democratic.

  15. Am I correct in thinking that the Greens (especially Di Natale) have virtually abandoned their Australia Day rhetoric this year?

    Morrison’s edict to Councils regarding citizenship ceremonies (the date and prescribed dress rules) seems to be the only thing attracting attention.

    Shorten has quite rightly refused to be dragged into the argument.

  16. E. G. Theodore @ #1709 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 3:05 pm

    Myself: “It is Rex who is anti-democratic…”

    Rex: “This is a parody, yes ..?”

    I think it’s quite possible, indeed likely, that you genuinely believe that to be the case.

    Learn some history

    I’ve certainly learnt from the last few decades of Lib-Lab govt’s.

    Seems you may be a little slow to compute….

  18. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/16/greens-wont-let-morrison-force-councils-to-hold-australia-day-citizenship-ceremonies

    The Greens have offered to preside over citizenship ceremonies on behalf of councils that refuse to conduct them on 26 January in a bid to thwart Scott Morrison’s attempt to force councils to celebrate Australia Day.

    The Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, made the offer on Wednesday, citing advice from the parliamentary library stating that MPs and senators have the power to conduct citizenship ceremonies under current regulations.

    The home affairs department responded by suggesting that parliamentarians require departmental approval for ceremonies, a claim contradicted by supplementary library advice.

  19. Late Riser says: Thursday, January 17, 2019 at 3:07 pm

    citizen. This is something like what I was thinking of. Like a Bad-Advents Calendar, behind each little door there’s a different lump of shit. Thanks.

    *********************************************************

    THANKS citizen – now that we have Late Riser on Trumps case he will be panicking even more that his arse is getting kicked on a daily basis over his moronic vanity wall b/s ….

  21. “U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, part of a new crop of Democrats swept into office this year on a stronger liberal platform, said she is poised to serve on a key congressional panel overseeing Wall Street, a potential setback for the financial services industry.”

    Fantastic. When Cortez was at Uni her father died without a will and the family had to fight court appointed lawyers for years to get the estate. They threatened to foreclose on their home. She had to waitress and her mother cleaned. I look forward to hearing her question bankers.

  22. Late Riser @ #1701 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 2:56 pm

    ItzaDream @ #1687 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 1:43 pm

    L R

    I agree with you about certainty. It is the enemy of progress and the bedrock of fundamentalism. Some years ago I read “In Defence of Doubt“, by expat Dr Val Webb, dealing with religion and faith. I can’t recall whether she addresses the other side of the coin which imo is fear.

    (on and off today, so not engaging is not ignoring)

    Thanks. I’ll look for it. My revelation on science was reading Feynman, who said, wtte, “What is not surrounded by questions cannot be the truth.”

    It is years since I read it, and recall only the main point, and for yourself it might well be a case of reinforcing the obvious.

    Keeping it local, if I look around and see who are the least progressive and the most certain, the least unable to change, and the most unable to accept, and by extension frightened, of the future and what they don’t understand, I see Howard, Abbott, and Dutton, and anyone who still denies climate change.
    Pill testing is another one – look at Gladys squirming around the issue and you see someone gripped by fear (of change). SSM was another.

    That was pretty rambling; best I can do at the mo.

  24. ItzaDream @ #1711 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 11:04 am

    Remember Doggerland? Before the EU there was Doggerland !!

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    … roughly 12,000 years ago, as the last major ice age was reaching its end, the area was very different. Instead of the North Sea, the area was a series of gently sloping hills, marshland, heavily wooded valleys, and swampy lagoons: Doggerland.

    Mesolithic people populated Doggerland. Archaeologists and anthropologists say the Doggerlanders were hunter-gatherers who migrated with the seasons, fishing, hunting, and gathering food such as hazelnuts and berries.

    Over time, the Doggerlanders were slowly flooded out of their seasonal hunting grounds. Water previously locked away in glaciers and ice sheets began to melt, drowning Doggerland. Around 6,000 years ago, the Mesolithic people were forced onto higher ground in what is today England and the Netherlands.

    https://www.nationalgeographic.org/maps/doggerland/

    That’s beautiful, I love these types of maps.

    The way they show how the rivers flowed out across the continental shelf and become tributaries of each other.

    And how that small ice sheet over western Scotland created some of the most amazing coastline anywhere.

    Thanks. 🙂

  25. Pegasus @ #1717 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 3:16 pm

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/16/greens-wont-let-morrison-force-councils-to-hold-australia-day-citizenship-ceremonies

    The Greens have offered to preside over citizenship ceremonies on behalf of councils that refuse to conduct them on 26 January in a bid to thwart Scott Morrison’s attempt to force councils to celebrate Australia Day.

    The Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, made the offer on Wednesday, citing advice from the parliamentary library stating that MPs and senators have the power to conduct citizenship ceremonies under current regulations.

    The home affairs department responded by suggesting that parliamentarians require departmental approval for ceremonies, a claim contradicted by supplementary library advice.

    😆

  26. Rex: “I’ve certainly learnt from the last few decades of Lib-Lab govt’s.

    Seems you may be a little slow to compute….”

    Ludicrous sampling bias, shamelessly proclaimed as virtue.

    History is not coterminous with “the last few decades” – that is the path to the world of 1984

  27. Itzadream
    If we do not address global warming and Greenland melts, we will be saying the same about Netherlanders as was said about Doggerlanders.

  30. E. G. Theodore @ #1725 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 3:19 pm

    Rex: “I’ve certainly learnt from the last few decades of Lib-Lab govt’s.

    Seems you may be a little slow to compute….”

    Ludicrous sampling bias, shamelessly proclaimed as virtue.

    History is not coterminous with “the last few decades” – that is the path to the world of 1984

    if you say so..

  31. Barney in Go Dau @ #1724 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 3:18 pm

    ItzaDream @ #1711 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 11:04 am

    Remember Doggerland? Before the EU there was Doggerland !!

    <a href="” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>

    … roughly 12,000 years ago, as the last major ice age was reaching its end, the area was very different. Instead of the North Sea, the area was a series of gently sloping hills, marshland, heavily wooded valleys, and swampy lagoons: Doggerland.

    Mesolithic people populated Doggerland. Archaeologists and anthropologists say the Doggerlanders were hunter-gatherers who migrated with the seasons, fishing, hunting, and gathering food such as hazelnuts and berries.

    Over time, the Doggerlanders were slowly flooded out of their seasonal hunting grounds. Water previously locked away in glaciers and ice sheets began to melt, drowning Doggerland. Around 6,000 years ago, the Mesolithic people were forced onto higher ground in what is today England and the Netherlands.

    https://www.nationalgeographic.org/maps/doggerland/

    That’s beautiful, I love these types of maps.

    The way they show how the rivers flowed out across the continental shelf and become tributaries of each other.

    And how that small ice sheet over western Scotland created some of the most amazing coastline anywhere.

    Thanks. 🙂

    and Norway.

  32. Late Riser says: Thursday, January 17, 2019 at 3:17 pm

    phoenixRED, I wish…

    *****************************************************

    …….. a mass walkout of all those poor Government people getting screwed by that narcissistic buffoon – shut down the country – people power !!!

  34. Peg,
    Rex, anti-democratic – what a laugh.
    Those who seem to believe in a one-party state governed by the glorious ALP are the ones who are anti-democratic.

    And who would you like to see run the country for the next 50 years. Don’t tell me, don’t tell me…..I think I know.

  35. The Greens Party advocacy for the MDB:

    2017: https://greens.org.au/sa/news/media-release/we-must-act-fundamental-flaws-murray-darling-basin-plan-river-flourish

    The Murray Darling Basin Plan has been fundamentally flawed from the beginning and needs to be fixed, the Australian Greens have said in response to the ANU’s Water Reform and Planning in the Murray-Darling Basin report.

    “It’s time to repair the Murray Darling Basin Plan and get it right once and for all,” Greens Water spokesperson Senator Sarah Hanson-Young said.

    “The science clearly showed that an additional 4000GL of water minimum was needed to be recovered by the Murray Darling Basin Plan to keep the River Murray flowing and South Australian communities thriving, but we only ended up with 2750GL.

    In 2012, The Greens attempted to move a disallowance to the plan at the time, to send it back to the Minister to get it right. This didn’t happen, so it comes as no surprise that five years down the track, we’re left with a weaker river system yet lush green irrigation fields in the eastern states.

    “This plan has always been about lining the pockets of big irrigators. It’s been haemorrhaging money while sustainability has fallen by the wayside.

    “The last thing we should be doing at this delicate stage in South Australia’s recovery is scrapping the Murray Darling Basin Plan completely, however, there are serious flaws to the plan that become clearer as time goes by and the effects of climate change become harsher on our natural environment. South Australians know just how devastating the impact of the next serious drought will be and I will fight to protect my state from suffering that disastrous fate.

    “A significant flaw of the Plan is the fact that it does not take the increasing effects of dangerous global warming into account. The Plan needs to factor that impact in and, with adequate water flows, be allowed to support South Australian irrigators while bringing our state’s environment and the Murray Darling system back to full health.”

  36. Socrates @ #1720 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 3:16 pm

    “U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, part of a new crop of Democrats swept into office this year on a stronger liberal platform, said she is poised to serve on a key congressional panel overseeing Wall Street, a potential setback for the financial services industry.”

    Fantastic. When Cortez was at Uni her father died without a will and the family had to fight court appointed lawyers for years to get the estate. They threatened to foreclose on their home. She had to waitress and her mother cleaned. I look forward to hearing her question bankers.

    She’s certainly a breath of fresh air.

    Just hope she has some loyal and competent advisors to guide her.

  37. briefly

    Those gold tables for import/export are misleading.Russia is big in gold. Both production and holdings. Just ask former PM Turnbull and his former mates n Siberia

    gold production in tons
    1 China 440
    2 Australia 300
    3 Russia 255
    4 United States 245

    Reserve tons
    1 United States 8,133.5
    2 Germany 3,369.7 6
    — International Monetary Fund 2,814.0 N/A
    3 Italy 2,451.8
    4 France 2,436.0
    5 Russia 2,066.2

  38. Gary,

    Long time, no see. Another individual boasting he is a mind-reader.

    As stated many times here, I want proportional representation in the HoR and multi-party governance.

    What do you want?

  40. Gary @ #1733 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 3:25 pm

    Peg,
    Rex, anti-democratic – what a laugh.
    Those who seem to believe in a one-party state governed by the glorious ALP are the ones who are anti-democratic.

    And who would you like to see run the country for the next 50 years. Don’t tell me, don’t tell me…..I think I know.

    At the moment, Tim Storer.

  42. Rex Douglas @ #1743 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 11:30 am

    Gary @ #1733 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 3:25 pm

    Peg,
    Rex, anti-democratic – what a laugh.
    Those who seem to believe in a one-party state governed by the glorious ALP are the ones who are anti-democratic.

    And who would you like to see run the country for the next 50 years. Don’t tell me, don’t tell me…..I think I know.

    At the moment, Tim Storer.

    A dictatorship, that’s not very democratic! 😆

  44. Speaking of fear, here’s a timely piece by George Monbiot on the fear behind aggressive masculinity and the dangers it brings, including within.

    What sort of a man are you if you have to go to such lengths to prove your masculinity? The confident construction of identity does not require crude cultural markers, but emotional literacy and honest self-appraisal. The more we proclaim our strength and dominance, the weaker we reveal ourselves to be.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/16/men-masculinity-gillette-advertisement

  45. MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell hails AOC’s historic #WheresMitch quest for Republican leader Mitch McConnell

    MSNBC anchor Lawrence O’Donnell on Wednesday offered effusive praise for Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), the youngest woman ever elected to the House of Representatives.

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez @AOC

    800,000 workers are missing their paychecks and we’re pushing to get them paid ASAP.

    We’re here doing our job – the House has voted to reopen government whole or in part several times – so why can’t we find GOP Senators to ask them do theirs? #WheresMitch

    Rep. Ocasio-Cortez, who is also known by her initials, AOC, used her massive social media platform for her #WheresMitch search for the Senate Majority Leader.

    “In modern politics — in social media politics — with fame comes power, the power to direct media attention where you want it. The power to push a policy position into the national political debate,” O’Donnell noted. “And Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez did that today more effectively than any other member of the House of Representatives could have done it, because of that fame.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/msnbcs-lawrence-odonnell-hails-aocs-historic-wheresmitch-quest-republican-leader-mitch-mcconnell/

  46. ItzaDream @ #1743 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 2:48 pm

    Speaking of fear, here’s a timely piece by George Monbiot on the fear behind aggressive masculinity and the dangers it brings, including within.

    What sort of a man are you if you have to go to such lengths to prove your masculinity? The confident construction of identity does not require crude cultural markers, but emotional literacy and honest self-appraisal. The more we proclaim our strength and dominance, the weaker we reveal ourselves to be.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/16/men-masculinity-gillette-advertisement

    The word “brittle” springs to mind, often associated with “hard”, and never to be mistaken for “strong”.

  48. This was on SKY and received some nasty messages in response.

    Sky News Australia
    ‏
    .@billshortenmp: We are going to invest $33.4 million in an urgent care clinic at Logan Hospital. We are going to build an outpatient centre which will deal with urgent care and it will make a big difference.

  49. “The more we proclaim our strength and dominance, the weaker we reveal ourselves to be.”

    A bit like “the more he spoke of his honour, the faster we counted the spoons”.

    Which brings us to Scott Morrison declaring himself “Prime Minister for Standards” as the motivation for picking a fight over the date of Australia Day.

    If there’s a contest on about the date, put me down for “don’t care”. The Right have taken over and politicised Australia Day and other patriotic symbolism as part of their set of virtue signals, along with climate denial, attacking unions, demonising welfare recipients, devotion to “family values” (not necessarily practicing them), devotion to the military, the flag and the monarchy.

    I’ll be ignoring it. In future, a suitable date for celebrating Australia may present itself. The current one is a lost cause.

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