Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

In the first new poll of the year, both major parties are up on the primary vote, yet their leaders’ disapproval ratings have shot upwards.

Essential Research is back in business, its first poll for the new year no change on Labor’s 53-47 lead in the final poll last year. Both major parties are on 38% on the primary votes, which is a two-point improvement for Labor and a one-point improvement for the Coalition. Minor party primary votes will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today. In a spirit of seasonal goodwill, monthly leadership ratings find both leaders well up on disapproval – by five points in Morrison’s case to 39%, and four in Shorten’s case to 47% – while Morrison is up one on approval to 42% and Shorten is unchanged on 35%.

As related by The Guardian, further questions mostly focused on the recent far right rally in St Kilda, the most interesting finding being that 48% thought Scott Morrison “demonstrated poor leadership by not immediately condemning the rally, and those who attended it, in stronger terms”, compared with 36% who disagreed. Only 22% thought it appropriate for Senator Fraser Anning to “use taxpayer money to attend the rally”, with 66% saying it was appropriate; 74% felt there was ”no place in Australian society for the use of racist and fascist symbols used by participants in the rally”, whereas 17% were apparently all in favour of them; and that 73% nonetheless felt that “Australians have the right to peacefully protest, no matter how extreme their views”, while 19% didn’t.

The poll also find 63% support for pill testing, although the question was very particular about the specifics, specifying circumstances in which “trained counsellors provide risk-reduction advice informed by on-site laboratory analysis of people’s drugs”.

UPDATE: Full report here. The Greens are down a point to 10%, and One Nation are steady on 7%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,042 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Republicans lock behind McConnell. My own view is that Democrats should target him rather than Trump. McConnell refuses to allow a vote on House bills to reopen govt saying simply that the shutdown isn’t his problem, it’s up to Trump, Pelosi and Schumer. He can still be removed from the issue if that’s what he wants, but he has no credibility preventing the Senate from voting on House bills.

    Still, he has retained the support of most fellow Republican senators, who appear to be largely united behind his strategy, despite some growing concerns about the impact of the lapse in government services.

    One after another, McConnell’s top lieutenants took turns speaking after him Tuesday, blaming Democrats for the shutdown and standing in lockstep with the majority leader.

    “The corpus, the main group of the caucus, will stay with the leader,” Sen. Richard C. Shelby ­(R-Ala.), chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, said to reporters separately. “And the leader right now is hanging with the president.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/senate-republicans-stand-with-mcconnell-on-the-sidelines-of-shutdown-fight/2019/01/15/61b2e1dc-1906-11e9-9ebf-c5fed1b7a081_story.html?utm_term=.67d8311070c7

  2. I’ve just received my second unsolicited Clive Palmer text stating that when elected the UAP will ban unsolicited political text messages!

    How to respond?

  3. poroti @ #1274 Wednesday, January 16th, 2019 – 6:42 pm

    Hello those in rural electorates. If this horror drought, MDB ,heatwave etc continues will rural voters tend to rally around the Nats flag, go all Bolshie Indie or who knows ?

    Depends.

    Nats are the default position up this way. They make excuses for things like the rivers drying up.

    But if a credible candidate, that is with Nat origins but now an independent enrolled, Barnaby Joyce could be in for big problems in New England.

    But it would need an excellent candidate. May it be so.

    I would settle for the Nationals NSW rep. for Northern Tablelands, but he is too young and inexperienced. Give him ten years and a bit of gravitas and he will be a force to be reckoned with.

  4. Hi Eunoe,

    Hi Douglas and Milko

    Your posts are always of interest to me. Thanks.

    As you know, I post rarely, but the three points made in your sentence above concern me greatly.

    First, if the bases upon which nath might have started posting here are as a direct result of being requested by William to do so, whether as part of a considered business plan or otherwise, I would find that request concerning and unsupportable. Since nath commenced posting, on balance I find his comments uninformative and delivered noxiously. They may add to the BTL comment count, should that be important to William, but they most affirmatively detract from the ‘calibre’ count, in my view. Not a useful strategy, from my vantage.

    Second, it is unclear to me on what bases, if any, William might seek to affirmatively address unspecified ‘outsiders’ and their possible (and unspecified) perceptions of PB’s BTL commentary. There are any number of strategies William might pursue should he be seeking to enhance readership and comment numbers. Personally, I’d advocate against a ‘Reddit-ification’ strategy of PB BTL, but maybe that’s just me.

    Last, if William seeks more ‘anti-Left Labor types’ as contributors, his issue will be how best to attempt to facilitate that end. In my opinion, nath, both in substance and style, does not offer assistance towards that possible objective.

    I do miss Mari, by the way. She was right, in my view. And Observer, for his finance and friendship circle observations. And Boerwar – where has he gone?

    I am just catching up with the blog. Thanks for your thoughtful post.

    I should say that Nath dropped some hints as to what he was doing here, and so I was probably not nuanced enough in what I said. William has never in anyway indicated that he asked Nath to post here, and my best guess is that it was Nath’s idea of helping, not William’s idea of help he needed.

    Also, whatever reason Nath had for beginning to post, I do not find anything he says useful – although occasionally he is so over the top he has made me laugh. He wears an extremely divisive persona, and I have some concern that he is calibrating short, nasty election messages to see what sort of response he gets to them from posters here.

  5. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-16/cern-plans-new-particle-accelerator-four-times-bigger-than-lhc/10718874

    •The Higgs boson is a sub-atomic particle that scientists say confers mass.
    •It is conceived as existing in an invisible field that stretches across the Universe known as the Higgs Field.
    •Higgs bosons “stick” to fundamental particles of matter as they move through the field, dragging on them.
    •Some of these particles interact more with the Higgs than others and thus have greater mass. But particles of light, also called photons, are impervious to it and have no mass.

    Wonderful information for we dumbasses chez 😵 KayJay. 😵

  6. When I lived in the UK I found there was a sense of looking back at past glories, Empire and the like.

    A time when Britain stood on its own and dominated much of the World.

    I saw that sort of mentality pervade many debates about Europe with the consensus often being, we don’t need anyone else.

    There seemed to be some denial that the World had indeed changed and Britain wasn’t as great and powerful as what they would like to believe and just maybe they did need to work with others for mutual benefit.

  8. KayJay @ #1305 Wednesday, January 16th, 2019 – 7:46 pm

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-16/cern-plans-new-particle-accelerator-four-times-bigger-than-lhc/10718874

    •The Higgs boson is a sub-atomic particle that scientists say confers mass.
    •It is conceived as existing in an invisible field that stretches across the Universe known as the Higgs Field.
    •Higgs bosons “stick” to fundamental particles of matter as they move through the field, dragging on them.
    •Some of these particles interact more with the Higgs than others and thus have greater mass. But particles of light, also called photons, are impervious to it and have no mass.

    Wonderful information for we dumbasses chez 😵 KayJay. 😵

    That’s odd. Normally the physicists hedge their bets and say ‘no rest mass’, that is, not when they stop. Which implies that maybe they have mass when in transit.

    Which would make sense since light bends around massive objects such as the sun, acting as though they have mass, one of the proofs of Einstein’s theories. Which implies that they have mass, to me, when they are on their appointed ways through the universe.

    Physics is hard.

  9. Confessions says:
    Wednesday, January 16, 2019 at 7:37 pm

    I’ve just received my second unsolicited Clive Palmer text stating that when elected the UAP will ban unsolicited political text messages!

    How to respond?
    ***************************
    Block the number, it will still cost him to send the message but you won’t receive it.

  12. a r @ #1260 Wednesday, January 16th, 2019 – 6:21 pm

    Player One @ #1210 Wednesday, January 16th, 2019 – 4:16 pm

    The problem she has is not that there is a brexit/no-brexit split – that issue has been decided by the referendum

    Well, you say that but it carries no more weight than when RD says it.

    Let’s compare referendums …

    Australian SSM – 62% of respondents in favor, 32% opposed, turnout 79% – so neither side got an absolute majority.

    British Brexit – 52% in favor, 48% opposed, turnout 72% – so neither side got an absolute majority.

    But one is apparently legitimate and binding, and the other is not. If the ‘pass’ mark is not 50% of the turnout, then what is it? 55%? 60%?

    Or is it the turnout that’s important? 72% is not enough to make the vote legitimate, but 79% is?

    Need I remind you that many Australian state and federal governments have been elected by even smaller margins? Are they not legitimate results? Why not?

  13. Lord Haw Haw:

    While I was tempted to reply with something rude (you should see some of the replies my Facebook friends are sharing!), I have decided to just block and delete.

  14. Douglas and Milko
    says:
    Also, whatever reason Nath had for beginning to post, I do not find anything he says useful….. He wears an extremely divisive persona, and I have some concern that he is calibrating short, nasty election messages to see what sort of response he gets to them from posters here.
    ___________________________
    D&M, I am shocked! I thought we had a certain collegial understanding, plus a little bit of mutual attraction, a certain frisson when we crossed paths. It’s all good though, you’re wrong about me but I still love you, you’re a sweetheart.

  15. Barney

    My UK born brother in law still thinks Britain is Great and hankers for the days of empire and glory.

    He emigrated with his parents as a teenager in the late 1950s.

  16. “I suspect you are correct. Her antipathy to foreigners would outweigh her basic, working-class support for Labour.”

    It’s how Tories get so many people to vote against their interests.

    So vote to stop brown people on boats and get Workchoices, robodebt, homebuyers subsidising property speculators, spivs squeezing wages, attempts at dismantling Medicare…

  17. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1223 Wednesday, January 16th, 2019 – 4:31 pm

    Have you noticed how Paroti and Rex (and some others on this forum) are strongly pro Corbyn, vehemently anti Blair (and anyone else that might not be as pure as St Jezza) and rapidly pro Brexit because … you know … ‘will of the people’ …

    Back in the day, you’d call such folks Trots. Back in the day they’d be honest enough and happy to be stuck with than moniker. These days of course they like to pretend they are the democratic guardians of the galaxy.

    Andrew

    Spoken like a one eyes RW in NSW Young labor, unable to distinguish a trot from a lefty.

    Truly mate there is a world of difference between trots and the ALP left . Most trots were middle class groupies and they were intransigent types. Many swung to the right as they got older. Most hated Russia with a passion. They were more like extreme Greens -more interested in gay politics and process than in the welfare of the working class.

    So Corbyn is a classic labor lefty – socialist and as a result fairly pro Russia and anti USA.

  18. don
    Wednesday, January 16th, 2019 – 7:53 pm
    Comment #1267

    That’s odd. ——–

    I got lost after that. I render here appropriate emoji for my understanding. 😵

    Next you will be telling me that rest 😲 is relative.

  19. Player One says:
    Wednesday, January 16, 2019 at 7:55 pm
    a r @ #1260 Wednesday, January 16th, 2019 – 6:21 pm

    Player One @ #1210 Wednesday, January 16th, 2019 – 4:16 pm

    The problem she has is not that there is a brexit/no-brexit split – that issue has been decided by the referendum
    Well, you say that but it carries no more weight than when RD says it.
    Let’s compare referendums …

    Australian SSM – 62% of respondents in favor, 32% opposed, turnout 79% – so neither side got an absolute majority.

    British Brexit – 52% in favor, 48% opposed, turnout 72% – so neither side got an absolute majority.

    But one is apparently legitimate and binding, and the other is not. If the ‘pass’ mark is not 50% of the turnout, then what is it? 55%? 60%?

    Or is it the turnout that’s important? 72% is not enough to make the vote legitimate, but 79% is?

    Need I remind you that many Australian state and federal governments have been elected by even smaller margins? Are they not legitimate results? Why not?

    ___________________________

    It’s not the issue of legitimacy that is of concern. It is implementability.

    There are two concerns. First, our postal survey was just that. It bound nobody, although it was a powerful, though unnecessary, demonstration of public feeling on the issue. Well over 60% of respondents supported it.

    Secondly, to the extent that some or most MPs felt bound by the outcome of the survey there was a clear-cut and readily implementable solution to make it law, which was to remove a provision from the Marriage Act.

    On the other hand the Brexit vote was far less powerful. Just over 50% of respondents supported it and what they wanted was far less clear cut. Yes, the majority wanted to leave the EU, but on what terms was totally unclear.

    And this leads to the problem of implementability. Either the departure from the EU is hard or it is less hard. There is talk of a ‘soft Brexit’ but what constitutes a non-hard Brexit is anyone’s guess. Indeed, only one model has been nutted out and this was comprehensibly rejected by Parliament yesterday. So where does that leave the British government? Either a hard Brexit or fuck knows.

  20. I though of Workchoices because I saw a faded ‘Your rights at work’ sign today, high up on a telegraph pole, obscured by a tall gum tree that had mostly obscured it since it was put up over 10 years ago. A timely reminder, it will be back at the earliest opportunity under a different name if the Coalition wins this year.

  21. DaretoTread @ #1316 Wednesday, January 16th, 2019 – 4:08 pm

    Andrew_Earlwood @ #1223 Wednesday, January 16th, 2019 – 4:31 pm

    Have you noticed how Paroti and Rex (and some others on this forum) are strongly pro Corbyn, vehemently anti Blair (and anyone else that might not be as pure as St Jezza) and rapidly pro Brexit because … you know … ‘will of the people’ …

    Back in the day, you’d call such folks Trots. Back in the day they’d be honest enough and happy to be stuck with than moniker. These days of course they like to pretend they are the democratic guardians of the galaxy.

    Andrew

    Spoken like a one eyes RW in NSW Young labor, unable to distinguish a trot from a lefty.

    Truly mate there is a world of difference between trots and the ALP left . Most trots were middle class groupies and they were intransigent types. Many swung to the right as they got older. Most hated Russia with a passion. They were more like extreme Greens -more interested in gay politics and process than in the welfare of the working class.

    So Corbyn is a classic labor lefty – socialist and as a result fairly pro Russia and anti USA.

    Why would a socialist be pro Russia?

  22. With those super dooper powerful colliders i somethimes wonder if that is how the Big Bang works. Wait for a civilisation with a collider powerful enough to produce the required energy to ‘light the fuse ” and voila, BANG a Big one or maybe The Big Shrink 🙂

  23. About the only rule of protocol that I remember from Fiji was you should never be higher than the chief. If the chief sat down (on the floor) – everyone else had to also!

  25. KayJay @ #1318 Wednesday, January 16th, 2019 – 4:10 pm

    don
    Wednesday, January 16th, 2019 – 7:53 pm
    Comment #1267

    That’s odd. ——–

    I got lost after that. I render here appropriate emoji for my understanding. 😵

    Next you will be telling me that rest 😲 is relative.

    I read the article earlier and what concerned me was the lack of imagination Physicist have in choosing a name.

    FCC – Future Circular Collider

    What about;

    FHC – F#cking Huge Collider

    LGW – Looking in God’s Window
    🙂

  26. You can pontificate about “Trots” or you can object to being labelled a “Grouper”. You really, really don’t get to do both.

  29. If would seem the Russian flat is upset the efforts of the Russian Troll farm are coming undone, spectacularly. We are informed, over and over and over that Trump is definitely no Putin agent, although it is now pretty clear Russia bailed him out of his last business ( to use the term loosely) disaster and over and over and over that democracy means people can’t change their mind. Oh so sad for Rex Nath and DDT.

    What I don’t understand is:
    1) Why over and over and over is expected to change anyone’s mind.
    2)Why they consider it important to change the mind of people reading poll bludger, I expect the UK and USA readership to be quite low.

  30. I reckon May is going to win the no-confidence motion.
    Then what; does labor ( 80% who support remain) deal with Corbyn’s deep desire for a glorious revolution by showing him the revolving door.

  32. D&M @7:43PM. “…and I have some concern that he [Nath] is calibrating short, nasty election messages to see what sort of response he gets to them from posters here.”

    That has occurred to me also. I’ve through that the same might apply to another poster, Pretty One.

  35. TPOF @ #1324 Wednesday, January 16th, 2019 – 7:16 pm

    Why would a socialist be pro Russia?
    ______________________________

    For the same reason they are pro-anyone. They are not the USA.

    TPOF

    I guess you do know what a socialist is and what a capitalist is.

    The USA was the poster child for capitalism and USSR for “socialism.”

    However in the post war year the Labour paries and their equivalents in most Western countries introduced democratic socialism – a halfway house between the USA and USSR models. So free health care, pensions, work for most, good wages etc were all part of that social contract. The USA was alone in the west for not embracing the Social democracy model.

  38. Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump
    21h21 hours ago
    A big new Caravan is heading up to our Southern Border from Honduras. Tell Nancy and Chuck that a drone flying around will not stop them. Only a Wall will work. Only a Wall, or Steel Barrier, will keep our Country safe! Stop playing political games and end the Shutdown!

    What happens if Mexico decides to build a set of stairs on their side of the wall?

  40. Confessions @ #1338 Wednesday, January 16th, 2019 – 4:47 pm

    Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump
    21h21 hours ago
    A big new Caravan is heading up to our Southern Border from Honduras. Tell Nancy and Chuck that a drone flying around will not stop them. Only a Wall will work. Only a Wall, or Steel Barrier, will keep our Country safe! Stop playing political games and end the Shutdown!

    What happens if Mexico decides to build a set of stairs on their side of the wall?

    They could run sight seeing tours! 🙂

  41. KayJay, Don

    Those pesky photons having escaped the bosons of Higgs are forced to travel at the speed of light. Having zero rest mass that is the only way they may exist. If ever they are stopped they cease to exist. They literally vanish. And the “reason” (aka best idea we’ve had to explain this) they bend around massive objects is that they don’t. Space itself is bent and they “simply” follow a straight path through that bent space. (And they say physicists lack imagination.) What a wonderful universe.

  43. TPOF @ #1319 Wednesday, January 16th, 2019 – 8:11 pm

    And this leads to the problem of implementability. Either the departure from the EU is hard or it is less hard. There is talk of a ‘soft Brexit’ but what constitutes a non-hard Brexit is anyone’s guess. Indeed, only one model has been nutted out and this was comprehensibly rejected by Parliament yesterday. So where does that leave the British government? Either a hard Brexit or fuck knows.

    So – I think – we seem to agree that both votes are equally legitimate, and should be implemented. Sure – one is harder than the other. But actually, even that’s not really true. I give May credit to have negotiated what is possibly the best deal that the EU would accept. And let’s not forget that the EU are not blameless here, by the way – they made it hard to cut a decent deal. But there is a negotiated deal on the table, and it can – and I believe should – be implemented.

    The problem is not with the deal – it is within her own party, and not with anyone else. It is they who are split – split between those who are willing to accept a negotiated deal, and those who are not. Who are apparently not willing to accept any deal, and would rather crash out.

    It is the Tories who are letting down the British people – who clearly voted for Brexit.

  46. And let’s not forget that the EU are not blameless here, by the way – they made it hard to cut a decent deal.

    The rest of the post I agree with. But decent for whom? Why should the EU (which includes Ireland) make it easy for the UK? The EU should protect and promote itself as an entity that does not include the UK. It seems unfair to blame the EU for looking after themselves, given that the UK started this and explicitly does not want to be part of or beholden to the EU.

  48. Late Riser @ #1346 Wednesday, January 16th, 2019 – 9:03 pm

    And let’s not forget that the EU are not blameless here, by the way – they made it hard to cut a decent deal.

    The rest of the post I agree with. But decent for whom? Why should the EU (which includes Ireland) make it easy for the UK? The EU should protect and promote itself as an entity that does not include the UK. It seems unfair to blame the EU for looking after themselves, given that the UK started this and explicitly does not want to be part of or beholden to the EU.

    Surely the EU should have a keen interest in protecting the livelihoods of those EU citizens who live and work in the UK, and those EU companies who have offices and do business there, or who conduct trade with the UK. Instead, the EU seemed determined to make life extremely difficult for them – just to punish the UK.

  49. As surprising as the sun rising this morning: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/audit-finds-bureaucrats-applied-insufficient-scrutiny-to-443-million-barrier-reef-grant-20190116-p50rqt.html

    “The GBRF was founded in 1999 by late Queensland shale oil developer Sir Ian McFarlane and others. Its chairman, John Schubert, is a former Commonwealth Bank chairman and it is supported by some of Australia’s largest mining companies.”

    A veritable rogues gallery. The whole thing’s dodgy as all getout. They made sure the money went to a group who could be relied upon not to raise concerns about the climate or say anything that might reflect badly on mates. This needs a proper investigation when Labor comes to power.

  50. Modern Russia is not socialist, it is a corrupt robber baron capitalist sort of fascist-lite state. It was also no shining example under the Communists either, it was blighted by the historical authoritarianism of its originating states Tsarist Russia, whom it indirectly replaced, and the German Kaiserreich who worked with the Bolsheviks to install them as government that would sell supplies to Germany and Austria-Hungary rather than fight them and the their party bank-robber tyake over the party.

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